[ADwD Spoilers] Varys

[The King of Worms]

I still think there is one very confusing thing about Varys' behaviour and supposed motivations. Why does he attempt to assassinate Dany via the wine seller? What is Varys' interest in getting Dany killed? And then why send Ser Barristan and Strong Belwas after the attempt failed? There must be more to the story.

I think that Varys never intended for the wine-seller to succeed, but instead he informed Jorah of the plot so that Jorah, his informant, could save Dany and gain a very strong position of trust with Dany and Drogo. Which is exactly what happened. He never intended to have Dany killed for King Robert; he just wanted to manipulate Robert, making himself more valued as spymaster and deflecting any suspicion from himself... also he was deflecting Roberts attention from other matters like the strange death of Jon Arryn and Cersei's affair... he also used the issue of assassinating Dany to pit Ned and Robert against each other.

So this was one of Varys's webs that was really effective. He made everyone in KL think he was working against the Targaryon girl... when in fact he was deceiving King Robert.

[The King of Worms]

Well Harry the Heir, that is the one flaw in my uncle Varys theory. I can only say that the time period of Robert's early reign and Viserys and Dany's childhood is sort of mystery. There is not much in the books about it. It could be that Illyrio was unwilling to foster children, or that it had something to do with the House with the Red Door, or that Varys was helping in other ways that aren't mentioned. I actually would like GRRM to have written more about this time period actually. We know certain details from Dany, like that Viserys was forced to sell their mother's golden crown at one point. Its all very vague.

We can see though that throughout the books, Varys has worked slowly to undermine and hasten the downfall of the Baratheons, the Starks, and then the Lannisters; the houses that rose in rebellion against the Dragon. We see that the only people he has ever worked to help are the Targaryon "children".

[Shylock]

I'm probably way late to the party on this one, but I recently realized that there are at least two ways to interpret "mummer's dragon".

1. That Aegon is a fake Targ (which is how I always read it and for the longest time seemed to be the prevailing wisdom).

Couldn't it also mean:

2. That the "mummer" is Varys and that Aegon is "his" (real) dragon (IOW, that Varys has been seeing to his upbringing)?

Ive always read YG as the "Mummer's Dragon" that is mentioned. It fits far too well to be ignored, and it is something Varys would do too, as he always works in the very long term with his schemes.

[SerBarristan]

And wasn't Varys raised by mummers? In his story to Ned in the dungeon about his upbringing..

[Clueless Northman]

And wasn't Varys raised by mummers? In his story to Ned in the dungeon about his upbringing..

Well, if we go farther this way, some crackpot could even consider that Varys himself is the mummer's dragon - assuming he shaves his head on purpose. There's no "ae" in his name, but there's still the distinctive "rys".

Considering the assassination attempts, I've always assumed the wineseller to act following Robert's decision to kill Daenerys - most probably sent by Varys -, and Jorah to be warned shortly after by same Varys, so that he could save her. After all, Jorah was just going to check his mail before busting the wineseller, which seemed quite obvious to me.

On the other hand, I've always suspected that the sorrowful man with the manticore - typically an Essos feature - was sent by some people from Qarth.

[Black Crow]

And wasn't Varys raised by mummers? In his story to Ned in the dungeon about his upbringing..

You believe him?

[Bulldog]

I always had a suspicion that Varys = Reznak mo Reznak. Has this been discussed before? How silly is this theory? I actually wouldn't mind someone disproving it so the water is less muddy... Is it a red herring? A large theme in ADWD seems to be people taking on different identities, either through warging or good old fashioned mummery or Faceless Mannery. Thoughts?

[Skrubbeltrang]

I think that Varys never intended for the wine-seller to succeed, but instead he informed Jorah of the plot so that Jorah, his informant, could save Dany and gain a very strong position of trust with Dany and Drogo. Which is exactly what happened. He never intended to have Dany killed for King Robert; he just wanted to manipulate Robert, making himself more valued as spymaster and deflecting any suspicion from himself... also he was deflecting Roberts attention from other matters like the strange death of Jon Arryn and Cersei's affair... he also used the issue of assassinating Dany to pit Ned and Robert against each other.

So this was one of Varys's webs that was really effective. He made everyone in KL think he was working against the Targaryon girl... when in fact he was deceiving King Robert.

Hi KingOfWoms,

I don't think there is anything hinting that Varys wanted the attempt to fail. It is unlikely that he would have counted on Jorah taking care of the wine seller without any orders and being half a world away. I think that Varys was ok with Sacrificing Dany for his greater plan, meaning that he clearly has some specific agenda beyond merely putting the "Targs" in power.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

It is unlikely that he would have counted on Jorah taking care of the wine seller without any orders and being half a world away.

But Jorah did have orders. Varys ordered him to see that nothing happened to her and warned him specifically about the lordship offer that Robert had made.

[YoungGriff the Conqueror]

Obviously Varys is the great/grandson of Aerion 'Brightflame' Targaryen and as such Illyrio's wife was his sister. There son is YG. Varys is helping them put him on the throne because he is the rightful heir, the true Targ heir.

[WinterWarrior]

I think there is some connection between Varys and the old black tomcat with the torn ear that is mentioned time again throughout the books in Kings Landing. LIke he is one of Varys "little birds" or maybe Varys is a warg. The epilogue in ADWD has Varys asking "whatever happened to Aegon's little black kitten...." and as I re-read the stories that old black tomcat shows up when Arya is chasing and trying to catch him in the first book AGOT, he shows up again the first time Sansa goes to the Godswood to meet Dontos in the second book ACOK, and as I re-read I expect to find him again in each book. Then Tommen mentions the bad black cat that keeps bothering his kittens and shows up at his window in the epilogue of ADWD and then Varys asks about Aegon's little black kitten in that same epilogue.....there is a connection between Varys and that black tomcat.

[butterbumps!]

I really wonder if Varys is actually pro Targ/ Blackfyre as been suggested. A previous poster brought up the notion that Varys is laying the groundwork for a future system of government to follow, and I'm inclined to agree with this. We've been reminded numerous times throughout ASOIAF of the problems with primogeniture, and I can't help but wonder if Varys has been setting up a system whereby boy kings and mad kings are no longer possible. It would be interesting, from a literary perspective, if Varys is actually trying to intervene with the intention of creating a more just and capable form of government, because he's portrayed as so sinister and untrustworthy. It would be interesting, even kind of funny to a degree, if it turns out that the great orchestrator of positive political change is this apparent villain.

"It's for the children" keeps coming up in the books. I somewhat think Varys might be referring to the innocents of the thrones game, but I think there's more. The first Queen Danaerys built those water gardens and watched the children, noble and peasant alike, play naked together in the pools without regard for social status or house identification. I think this notion is something that Doran frequently muses about.

[chris999]

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems pretty straightforward to me. Varys wants the Targs to regain power.

If he just wants the Targs to regain power, it would be a lot easier to put Dany on the throne since she has dragons and a (small) army...

Varys and Illyrio planned for the The Beggar King to return to Westeros for decades... What is so different between Viserys and Dany that made him change his mind? Is he just opposed to a female ruler?

Why risk your life to secretly support Viserys but not Dany?

Why change your mind at the last minute to support someone who may be an imposter?

Aegon has to be a Blackfyre, and Varys has to be a Blackfyre supporter. There is no other reason to explain why he just gave up on the Targaryans the instant that Viserys died, especially considering that Dany would have treated the smallfolk better than anybody, which seems to be important to him.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I don't know why you think that Varys gave up on Daenerys after Viserys' death. There's really no reason to think that Varys' interest waned at that point, and Tristan Rivers says that Varys kept trying to arrange an alliance between Daenerys and Aegon after Viserys died.

If anything, the evidence suggest that Varys never really cared about V & D except as they could assist Aegon, but I'm repeating myself.

[butterbumps!]

I know that it seems obvious that Varys is trying to restore either Targ or Blackfyre dynasties, but I think that the fact that he reveals this supposed endgame to Kevan might be a clue that it's not what it seems. I don't doubt that Illyrio is on team Targ/ Blackfyre, but I really don't think Varys is- I think he's working toward something else.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

We know that Jorah was reporting on Dany to Varys. We know Varys put the "hit" on Dany. If Varys was relying upon Jorah to be in the right place and the right time to spot asassination of a Targ that he (Varys) was working very, very hard to put on the throne, then he's an idiot. Why not just tell Robert you put out the hit but not actually do it? Why not tell Jorah "I had to put out a hit on Dany to keep Robert from becoming suspicious, make sure she doesn't drink wine from any winesellers"?

Also, why would Varys put so much faith in the Targs? They brought 300 years of RELATIVE peace. There was the Blackfyre rebellion, the War of the Ten Penny Kings, scores of bandits, a war with Dorne that cost the Targs 50,000 soldiers. As of the time that Varys orders the hit, Dany has no dragons. The plan was that the Dothraki horde would be her army. Do Varys truly think that the Dothraki would be kind overlords and care about the suffering children?

[butterbumps!]

I just looked over the epilogue again. Varys never says anything like "Aegon, true heir of the throne," or anything else that would suggest that this power play is about any sort of rightful dynastic restoration (Targ or otherwise). Instead, Varys spells out Aegon's (supposed) qualities as a leader- how he's been shaped to rule, educated, understands kingship is his duty, puts his people first, etc. That's what leads me to think there's something more to this below the surface-- Enlightened Despotism?

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

If Varys was relying upon Jorah to be in the right place and the right time to spot asassination of a Targ that he (Varys) was working very, very hard to put on the throne, then he's an idiot.

Why? Ser Jorah was around Dany most of the time, and when he wasn't she had her bloodriders. The chances of an assassination attempt succeeding were pretty low. And we know that Varys and Illyrio were concerned that Drogo wasn't moving fast enough to fit in with their plans, so it makes sense that something needed to happen that would spark him to take revenge.

And there's no evidence that Varys "put a hit out" on Daenerys in the sense of hiring the wineseller specifically to attack Daenerys. They put the word out that a lordship would be available for her head, which means that Varys couldn't give a specific warning.

And regardless, it's plain that Varys was working very hard to put Aegon on the throne, not Daenerys, so a small risk to her life isn't the end of the world for him.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

Why? Ser Jorah was around Dany most of the time, and when he wasn't she had her bloodriders. The chances of an assassination attempt succeeding were pretty low. And we know that Varys and Illyrio were concerned that Drogo wasn't moving fast enough to fit in with their plans, so it makes sense that something needed to happen that would spark him to take revenge.

And regardless, it's plain that Varys was working very hard to put Aegon on the throne, not Daenerys, so a small risk to her life isn't the end of the world for him.

I have to disagree with you. Even if there is a "pretty low" chance of the assassination being succesful, why do it at all? Why take the risk? Drogo's assitance to Viserys was based on his marriage to Dany. If Dany's dead, the entire plan goes up in smoke. Remember, the assassin was one lift of the cup away from killing Dany. He wasn't exactly the Keysone Cops of hitmen.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Drogo's assitance to Viserys was based on his marriage to Dany. If Dany's dead, the entire plan goes up in smoke.

Quite the contrary. Drogo had little interest in actually giving Viserys the ten thousand screamers asked for in anything resembling a timely manner, and less in traversing the Narrow Sea with his own army. It wasn't until the assassination attempt on Daenerys that Drogo pledged himself to conquer Westeros, more because of pride than anything else. Had Daenerys died from an assassination attempt, presumably Drogo's rage would have been all the greater.