[ADwD Spoilers] Varys

[Buried Treasure]

Oddly enough, the story Varys tells of being sold by a troupe of mummers to a sorcerer who castrated him is one of the few times I believe he is telling the truth. Perhaps because he was talking to Ned - Varys did think Ned a moron for being so honest, but he also respected that honesty - and might have shown that by being truthful when talking about a deeply personal matter. Plus it something of a ridicilous lie to make up.

Given that I don't believe Varys is a Targ loyalist or a Blackfyre loyalist I spend a lot of time wondering what Varys' true motives are. I wonder if perhaps he has some anti-magic agenda? And that is his motive for raising a non-Targ imposter?

If he just wants the Targs to regain power, it would be a lot easier to put Dany on the throne since she has dragons and a (small) army...

Varys and Illyrio planned for the The Beggar King to return to Westeros for decades... What is so different between Viserys and Dany that made him change his mind? Is he just opposed to a female ruler?

Why risk your life to secretly support Viserys but not Dany?

Why change your mind at the last minute to support someone who may be an imposter?

Aegon has to be a Blackfyre, and Varys has to be a Blackfyre supporter. There is no other reason to explain why he just gave up on the Targaryans the instant that Viserys died, especially considering that Dany would have treated the smallfolk better than anybody, which seems to be important to him.

Other people have responded already, but your timeline is wrong.

Illyrio began sponsoring Viserys half a year before GoT began. He began sponsoring Aegon 11-14 years before GoT began (depending whether he is real or an imposter procured later). There was definately a time when he was sponsoring both Aegon & Viserys to be king - but he can't have intended them to share the Iron Throne so one must have been his preferred candidate - and given length of association and princely education that seems to be Aegon.

Reading the first two books it seemed like Viserys as king was Plan A & they switched Plan B (Dany as queen) after hearing what happened in the Dothraki Sea. Now it seems like Viserys was merely Phase One: Launch a destructive war in Westeros;- well, Viserys died, but the Wot5K had the same effect so now they seem to be back on track with Phase Two: Aegon swoops in looking every inch the hero. There was briefly the possibility of an upgrade to the plan when it looked like Dany was coming West: Aegon and Dany swoop in on dragonback.

Plus where do you get the idea Varys cares for the smallfolk - he purchases mutilated children wholesale.

[Saluksic]

If the theory is that Varys works out decade-long plans in order to reap century-long rewards for the realm, then using handfuls of mutilated children to potentially save thousands of others in not inconsistent.

A question about The Others: what is the evidence that Rhaegar wants to fight the Others? It seems to me that recognizing this threat is the ultimate test of character for citizens of Westeros; villains are indifferent to the needs of the Watch, whereas the 'good guys' (Starks, Tyrion, Stannis on his better days) take strides to help. If Varys proves to be concerned about the far-north, I'll be very much inclined to believe the best of him.

[Ser Lepus]

Quite the contrary. Drogo had little interest in actually giving Viserys the ten thousand screamers asked for in anything resembling a timely manner, and less in traversing the Narrow Sea with his own army. It wasn't until the assassination attempt on Daenerys that Drogo pledged himself to conquer Westeros, more because of pride than anything else. Had Daenerys died from an assassination attempt, presumably Drogo's rage would have been all the greater.

Drogo promised Viserys a crown, not the crown of Westeros. I think Drogo would have conquered Mantarys or Lhazaar or some other similar place, have crowned Viserys king, and would have gone, leaving him behind to handle his new "subjects".

[Bastard of the White Knife]

Quite the contrary. Drogo had little interest in actually giving Viserys the ten thousand screamers asked for in anything resembling a timely manner, and less in traversing the Narrow Sea with his own army. It wasn't until the assassination attempt on Daenerys that Drogo pledged himself to conquer Westeros, more because of pride than anything else. Had Daenerys died from an assassination attempt, presumably Drogo's rage would have been all the greater.

Or not. Who knows? Not you, me or Varys is going to know what Khal Drogo's reaction is going to be, or whether or not Viserys would have been the person to actually seat his ass on the Iron Throne if Drogo could get the Dothraki across the Narrow Sea. Assassinating Dany or even taking that risk makes no sense.

[The King of Worms]

If the theory is that Varys works out decade-long plans in order to reap century-long rewards for the realm, then using handfuls of mutilated children to potentially save thousands of others in not inconsistent.

A question about The Others: what is the evidence that Rhaegar wants to fight the Others? It seems to me that recognizing this threat is the ultimate test of character for citizens of Westeros; villains are indifferent to the needs of the Watch, whereas the 'good guys' (Starks, Tyrion, Stannis on his better days) take strides to help. If Varys proves to be concerned about the far-north, I'll be very much inclined to believe the best of him.

I said it before... Varys never helps out anybody. He never shows any kindness. He never lifts a finger to help sansa or arya. Doesn't seem to care about little Tommen's safety. GrrM has shown us no evidence that he cares about the "little children" or smallfolk at all. The only "children" he has ever helped were targaryon.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

If the theory is that Varys works out decade-long plans in order to reap century-long rewards for the realm, then using handfuls of mutilated children to potentially save thousands of others in not inconsistent.

Maybe it has an internal logic, but it's the logic of a crazed zealot. Nobody who wasn't committed to an extremist agenda would think that an untested boy is going to be so vastly superior to any other potential monarch that the deaths of tens of thousands of people will be worth it. Maybe that describes Varys. In fact, I think there's a good chance that it does--that he's more like Melisandre than he appears, albeit not religious.

But to say that Varys gives a shit about the actual, living, breathing children of the realm at the moment is wrong. Maybe he cares about the hypothetical children of the world that he's going to create, but that's a far different thing.

Or not. Who knows? Not you, me or Varys is going to know what Khal Drogo's reaction is going to be, or whether or not Viserys would have been the person to actually seat his ass on the Iron Throne if Drogo could get the Dothraki across the Narrow Sea. Assassinating Dany or even taking that risk makes no sense.

I think that argument proves too much. If Drogo's reactions are so inscrutable, then there would be no sense dealing with him in any capacity because he's totally unpredictable. Since that's obviously not the case, then I don't see why it's hard to predict that a warlord from a culture that prides honor, bravery and loyalty would seek revenge on the man who had his wife killed.

[Cryler]

Varys tells the story of how he was cut to Tyrion. He claims to have heard a voice give answer to a question yet never mentions what the question or answer was. My personal belief is that it had something to do with the tptwp prophecy.

[chris999]

Oddly enough, the story Varys tells of being sold by a troupe of mummers to a sorcerer who castrated him is one of the few times I believe he is telling the truth. Perhaps because he was talking to Ned - Varys did think Ned a moron for being so honest, but he also respected that honesty - and might have shown that by being truthful when talking about a deeply personal matter. Plus it something of a ridicilous lie to make up.

Given that I don't believe Varys is a Targ loyalist or a Blackfyre loyalist I spend a lot of time wondering what Varys' true motives are. I wonder if perhaps he has some anti-magic agenda? And that is his motive for raising a non-Targ imposter?

Other people have responded already, but your timeline is wrong.

Illyrio began sponsoring Viserys half a year before GoT began. He began sponsoring Aegon 11-14 years before GoT began (depending whether he is real or an imposter procured later). There was definately a time when he was sponsoring both Aegon & Viserys to be king - but he can't have intended them to share the Iron Throne so one must have been his preferred candidate - and given length of association and princely education that seems to be Aegon.

Reading the first two books it seemed like Viserys as king was Plan A & they switched Plan B (Dany as queen) after hearing what happened in the Dothraki Sea. Now it seems like Viserys was merely Phase One: Launch a destructive war in Westeros;- well, Viserys died, but the Wot5K had the same effect so now they seem to be back on track with Phase Two: Aegon swoops in looking every inch the hero. There was briefly the possibility of an upgrade to the plan when it looked like Dany was coming West: Aegon and Dany swoop in on dragonback.

Plus where do you get the idea Varys cares for the smallfolk - he purchases mutilated children wholesale.

Nice explanation. I am currently on my 1st re-read, and am picking up a lot of things I didnt notice the first time.

You seem to have answered all of my questions.

One thing still bothers me though. I just cant figure out why, after the birth of Dany's DRAGONS, that Varys still would think Aegon would be a better king. It seems like it is her destiny to rule. Why fight against that?

Varys does care about the realm. I believe him in the dungeons when he tells Ned that he "works for the realm (someone must)" when Ned asks who he works for.

I can see why he would like Aegon, because he sees a bit of Rheagar in him, and thinks that he would be a fair ruler.

I still just cant understand why he doesnt support Dany though after the birth of her dragons. She is destined to rule, Her dragons are a symbol of power. Dany has compassion for the common folk as well, she freed the slaves.

Maybe you are right, maybe Varys does hate magic (dragons). Maybe he is afraid of the power that Dany wields.

[Tourmaline Dragon]

Maybe you are right, maybe Varys does hate magic (dragons). Maybe he is afraid of the power that Dany wields.

Well this is what I am wondering. Varys never mentions Dany to Kevan. Where does she figure in his plans? No Iron Throne for her?

Interestingly he tells Kevan that Aegon knows what it’s like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid but that’s somewhat ironic since he’s also describing Dany’s experiences - and I am pretty certain that Aegon’s hard times pale in comparison to Dany’s.

[Net-Viper X]

Don't ask me why, but I still have a feeling he could be working for the Children of the Forest or possibly even be an empty body one of their greenseers is occupying as a human avatar. It all lines up with what he says about doing it for the realm and the children. The realm originally belonged to the children, and he could be trying to return it to them.

All the chaos Varys is causing doesn't seem to be aiding any of the great houses or the Targs themselves, but its destabilizing the realm perfectly for an invader from beyond the wall. All the attention has been drawn completely away from that region, noone in Westeros gives a shit about the wall or whats going on up there right now and Night Watch manpower is at an all time low and crumbling.

When Stannis arrives and the pact is made with the WIldlings, it looks like the wall has gotten some relief. But soon an odd series of events sends Stannis away to grind his forces up at Winterfel, while the Watch and Wildling alliance begins to fall apart and self destruct amidst the Lord Commander being stabbed by his own men.

So now in the big moment of crisis when people should be paying attention to events in the north, Aegon lands down near Dorne, about as far from the wall as you can get and draws everyones attention down there. Once again the wall is forgotten by the realm, and the defenders that remain appear set to annihilate one another. The whole thing is awfully convenient for invaders north of the wall.

Its a carzy idea I know, but there it is.

[Lord Baelish of the Aerie]

I think there is a theory that explains most of Varys' actions with some consistency.

He was whispering in Mad Aerys' ear to destabilize the Targaryen monarchy. He deliberately tried to make Aerys' distrust Rhaegar, and fomented Robert's rebellion.

Varys has also had little interest in throning Aerys' heir, Dany. He seems ambivalent toward her, both sending assassins and informing Illyrio, who sends her support (perhaps Illyrio is even playing Varys?)

I think Varys' endgame has always been to throne Young Gryph. I also think YG is truly Illyrio's son, and maybe or maybe not a Blackfyre. I think the fat man and eunuch are playing both sides of the Targ/Blackfyre coin to their own gain.

While Littlefinger is my favourite character, and I think he plays the Game of Thrones superbly, his game is limited to goings-on in Westeros. Varys and Illyrio are the only characters with a panoramic view of all events going on across the continents, and have been playing the game far longer and with more deliberate set-up than anyone.

[Tourmaline Dragon]

Don't ask me why, but I still have a feeling he could be working for the Children of the Forest or possibly even be an empty body one of their greenseers is occupying as a human avatar. It all lines up with what he says about doing it for the realm and the children. The realm originally belonged to the children, and he could be trying to return it to them.

Well you aren’t alone in wondering this. Like a lot of readers I’ve wracked my brain over Vary's motives for years! What I’d love to know is where and when exactly did it all begin for Varys?

Ok, the catalyst appears to be when his manhood was fed to the fire but how did he come to his vague “for the children” ambition in life? he must have had to educate himself, found people to teach him, visited libraries, stolen knowledge etc etc.

[Lord Varys]

On Aerys and Rhaegar:

Selmy and Connington's chapters strongly indicate that there was actually more behind the Tourney at Harrenhal that met the eye. If Varys told Aerys about that, this was not actually destabilizing the monarchy but perhaps an effort to preserve it. After all, even Rhaegar would not have been able to convince his father to abdicate. Not even with half the Realm behind him. There would have been a war, and I guess there would have been lots of lords left who would have backed Aerys over Rhaegar, most prominently Tywin, whose price for supporting Aerys likely would have been Viserys's marriage to Cersei.

Destabilizing the Targaryen dynasty back then would have served no purpose, in my opinion. Even if Varys and Illyrio are secret Blackfyres, what could they have gained? Whom would they have put on the Iron Throne? Illyrio Mopatis Blackfyre? Come on, no lord in Westeros would have backed a Pentoshi Bravo-turned-Magister. I repeat: no one.

The whole Aegon thing works only because Aegon is (supposed to be) a Targaryen, Rhaegar Targaryen's son. A Blackfyre descendant masked as a long-lost Blackfyre descendant would not have gotten a single lord into their camp. Especially since Varys and Illyrio apparently made no move to use the chaos of Robert's Rebellion to their advantage, by, say, launching an invasion of their own.

[Cerulean]

Greatjon Umber explained it before proclaiming the King in the North:

There were seven independent kingdoms for the thousands of years since the Andal invasion, with kingdoms of the First Men going back further than that. They likely fought continually, making and breaking alliances, dynasties rising and falling, but none ever conquered the others. The Targaryeans came from outside and climbed on top of the feudal hierarchy. Just another liege to bend the knee to. But the seven recognized them, because they soundly beat all of them (yes, Dorne too, eventually), and more importantly, they were not one of the seven. The seven remained equal, but recognized another as overlord.

Without the Targaryeans, the options are only independence, or constant war. The seven will not tolerate one of their own ruling the others, not forever. The Targaryeans ruled for almost 300 years. The next house for only 17, and then an immediate succession war. Not just a dynastic conflict, but an all-out, continent-wide civil war. One of the great houses has been nearly destroyed, one stripped of its titie, four have had their heads murdered and many others killed, and the las two are bloodied, with the latest alliances chilly at best. What is the greater number, five, or one? And winter is coming.

^^LOVE THIS!!!

[Lord Baelish of the Aerie]

On Aerys and Rhaegar:

Selmy and Connington's chapters strongly indicate that there was actually more behind the Tourney at Harrenhal that met the eye. If Varys told Aerys about that, this was not actually destabilizing the monarchy but perhaps an effort to preserve it. After all, even Rhaegar would not have been able to convince his father to abdicate. Not even with half the Realm behind him. There would have been a war, and I guess there would have been lots of lords left who would have backed Aerys over Rhaegar, most prominently Tywin, whose price for supporting Aerys likely would have been Viserys's marriage to Cersei.

Destabilizing the Targaryen dynasty back then would have served no purpose, in my opinion. Even if Varys and Illyrio are secret Blackfyres, what could they have gained? Whom would they have put on the Iron Throne? Illyrio Mopatis Blackfyre? Come on, no lord in Westeros would have backed a Pentoshi Bravo-turned-Magister. I repeat: no one.

The whole Aegon thing works only because Aegon is (supposed to be) a Targaryen, Rhaegar Targaryen's son. A Blackfyre descendant masked as a long-lost Blackfyre descendant would not have gotten a single lord into their camp. Especially since Varys and Illyrio apparently made no move to use the chaos of Robert's Rebellion to their advantage, by, say, launching an invasion of their own.

I think that Illyrio and Varys are patient. They made no immediate move to capitalize on Robert's rebellion because the long term game plan was to create upheaval and destabilize all of the great houses, to eventually sweep in and seat Aegon on the throne. They never intended to put Illyrio on the throne, merely to create the circumstances for Aegon's eventual invasion. The downfall of Aerys surely could have been prevented by someone with Varys' omniscience, and neither did Varys do anything to prevent Robert's fall. In fact, he was even seen by Arya planning with Illyrio to set wolf against lion. This is all very circumstantial evidence of meticulous planning, even having contingency plans a-la Viserys/Danaerys.

Even if Illyrio is not a Blackfyre, it suits his purposes well enough to pose Aegon as a Blackfyre to Blackfyre supporters (Golden Company) and a Targaryen to loyalists (The Reach) as it will garner allies along the way. Also, marrying Aegon to Danerys will consolidate the lines and provide legitimacy to both claimants.

[Leto]

Varys: "Ser Kevan. Forgive me if you can. I bear you no ill wil. This was not done from malice. It was for the realm. For the children."

Children of the forrest

The realm

The realm, not the realm of men

The groomed king of the small people

This bill fits Mance much better than YG.

He is not playing the game of thrones to win (the only man who doesn't want to sit on the throne). He is playing the game of thrones to keep the south war torn come winter. Varys both says and shows he has little birds in the north (bran assassination attempt) yet he takes no action and pays little heed to the going ons up there. He is directing the war efforts through YG to the far south. His spynetwork seems to include as many eyes as bloodravens..

[Independent George]

Plus where do you get the idea Varys cares for the smallfolk - he purchases mutilated children wholesale.

Well duh. Do you know how expensive they are retail?

[Tourmaline Dragon]

yet he takes no action and pays little heed to the going ons up there.

But does he really? Surely Varys (of all people in Westeros!) knows about the looming threat of the Others? Perhaps the killing of Kevan and not wanting the Seven Kingdoms united (just yet?) has everything to do with the coming of the war with the Others.

Throughout the entire series we never ever hear Varys utter a peep about rumors of Others and I am certain he must be getting news of them from his Northern spies.

[Leto]

But does he really? Surely Varys (of all people in Westeros!) knows about the looming threat of the Others? Perhaps the killing of Kevan and not wanting the Seven Kingdoms united (just yet?) has everything to do with the coming of the war with the Others.

Throughout the entire series we never ever hear Varys utter a peep about rumors of Others and I am certain he must be getting news of them from his Northern spies.

That is what I meant "Pays no heed and takes no action" as in revealed to us, the readers. It seems utterly impossible that he would be oblivious to what's going on up there, yet he directs the attention to the south. Varys' game is bigger than who sits on the throne.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

That is what I meant "Pays no heed and takes no action" as in revealed to us, the readers. It seems utterly impossible that he would be oblivious to what's going on up there, yet he directs the attention to the south. Varys' game is bigger than who sits on the throne.

I'm not sure I necessarily agree with this. Varys isn't god-like in his power or knowledge. The North is a long way away from King's Landing and the Wall is even farther. Most educated people including Tyrion, who has been to the Wall, don't think the Others are anything more then a myth. It doesn't appear that even the Nothern Lords think the Others are real.