[ADwD Spoliers] Why young Griff is the real deal!

[Adam West]

Hi! This is my first post here and I wanted to post about my feelings in regards to this "mummers dragon" theory.

It was said by many members that young griff may in fact be a false dragon perpetuated by  Varys and Illyrio. While this scenario may be somewhat plausible, its validity is debunked by Varys himself.

As quotes in the epilogue:

"He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

Now, if you think about. What does Varys gain by lying to a dying man? He must in fact believe that Aegon is the real deal. Otherwise, he would of mentioned that the kingdom will be taken by a false Targayren under his own control. 

I believe that the mummers dragon may actually have been Quentin Martell. Or, yet to come. 

Any thoughts?

[The Red Lion]

I truly hope that Aegon is legit. I truly liked his character. And even if he is a Blackfyre, I think he is a lot more fit to rule then Daenerys.

[Lord Damian]

I do not like Dany at all but if there are three heads to the Dragon, then we have Dany, Aegon if real then possibly Jon. Anyway, Varys seems to be the main person fostering the Aegon candidacy for the throne and he is associated with mummers, therefore I lean more to the fake dragon for Aegon.

[Dragonfish]

Hi! This is my first post here and I wanted to post about my feelings in regards to this "mummers dragon" theory.

It was said by many members that young griff may in fact be a false dragon perpetuated by Varys and Illyrio. While this scenario may be somewhat plausible, its validity is debunked by Varys himself.

As quotes in the epilogue:

"He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Now, if you think about. What does Varys gain by lying to a dying man? He must in fact believe that Aegon is the real deal. Otherwise, he would of mentioned that the kingdom will be taken by a false Targayren under his own control.

I believe that the mummers dragon may actually have been Quentin Martell. Or, yet to come.

Any thoughts?

This quote has already been discussed ad nauseam. Here are three of the most common rebuttals:

1) Varys never actually specifies that the Aegon he's talking about is the same Aegon that Kevan is thinking of. Also, notice that Varys is lauding Aegon for the fact that he's been raised to rule. He makes no mention of Aegon's claim or right to rule.

2) Varys may refer to him as Aegon at all times, similar to how Littlefinger tells Sansa that they must always refer to her as Alayne.

3) And the most common rebuttal, and also the strongest (IMO): Varys is not alone in the room with Kevan. His little birds are there. It's doubtful he'd want his little birds in on such a big secret as YG's true heritage, so of course he's never going to mention it. So it's not so much a case of Varys lying to a dying man, it's a case of Varys lying for the benefit of his little birds.

[Tin Pony]

I truly hope that Aegon is legit. I truly liked his character. And even if he is a Blackfyre, I think he is a lot more fit to rule then Daenerys.

Isn't everyone, lol?

[tze]

Hi! This is my first post here and I wanted to post about my feelings in regards to this "mummers dragon" theory.

It was said by many members that young griff may in fact be a false dragon perpetuated by Varys and Illyrio. While this scenario may be somewhat plausible, its validity is debunked by Varys himself.

As quotes in the epilogue:

"He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Now, if you think about. What does Varys gain by lying to a dying man? He must in fact believe that Aegon is the real deal. Otherwise, he would of mentioned that the kingdom will be taken by a false Targayren under his own control.

Varys never calls him "Aegon Targaryen" or "Rhaegar's son". This quote tells Kevan that this boy's name is Aegon, he's been trained to rule, and he has a right to rule. If Aegon is a Blackfyre, and Varys is either a Blackfyre sympathizer or a Blackfyre himself, then this makes perfect sense. The Blackfyres believed they were the true heirs to the Iron Throne because Aegon IV gave the sword Blackfyre to Daemon Blackfyre and it was thought that this meant Aegon IV wanted Daemon to succeed him. So Varys might not even consider himself to be lying to Kevan: Aegon has a right to rule because he's the true heir to the throne (he'd see Dareon II's descendants as the real usurpers). Aegon's right to rule will be demonstrated by the notion that his education prepares him to be a better ruler than anyone else.

[kg1982]

Aegon's right to rule will be demonstrated by the notion that his education prepares him to be a better ruler than anyone else.

I think that Aegon is going to end up disproving that notion more than anything else. It's the subversion of the King Arthur story.

[ChrisJM89]

Hi! This is my first post here and I wanted to post about my feelings in regards to this "mummers dragon" theory.

It was said by many members that young griff may in fact be a false dragon perpetuated by Varys and Illyrio. While this scenario may be somewhat plausible, its validity is debunked by Varys himself.

As quotes in the epilogue:

"He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Now, if you think about. What does Varys gain by lying to a dying man? He must in fact believe that Aegon is the real deal. Otherwise, he would of mentioned that the kingdom will be taken by a false Targayren under his own control.

I believe that the mummers dragon may actually have been Quentin Martell. Or, yet to come.

Any thoughts?

It could well be that his name is actually Aegon. There is no mention of parentage there.

Still he could well be the real Aegon VI (Targaryen) or I believe Aegon I Blackfyre. Aegon was no doubt a common Valarian name. Now its a Royal name and the Blackfyre's aspire to royalty. Its not a far stretch to say they'd call the heir of Blackfyre Aegon after the Conqueror or simply because its now a name for Valarian Westrosi royalty.

Varys is saying that Aegon is raised to rule and that he has been raised to believe its his duty and not a right.

I'd guess 75% chance Aegons a Blackfyre. 25% the real deal.

[Adam West]

This quote has already been discussed ad nauseam. Here are three of the most common rebuttals:

1) Varys never actually specifies that the Aegon he's talking about is the same Aegon that Kevan is thinking of. Also, notice that Varys is lauding Aegon for the fact that he's been raised to rule. He makes no mention of Aegon's claim or right to rule.

2) Varys may refer to him as Aegon at all times, similar to how Littlefinger tells Sansa that they must always refer to her as Alayne.

3) And the most common rebuttal, and also the strongest (IMO): Varys is not alone in the room with Kevan. His little birds are there. It's doubtful he'd want his little birds in on such a big secret as YG's true heritage, so of course he's never going to mention it. So it's not so much a case of Varys lying to a dying man, it's a case of Varys lying for the benefit of his little birds.

1) I really feel as if this claim is far-fetched. There has never been any insinuation that Varys would risk his own well-being for an Aegon pretender. Varys is quoted many times as "Serving the realm". There's no logical reason for him betraying his own word. It would make a great fantasy, but it's simply illogical.

2)Varys and Littlefinger share VERY few similarities. If this theory was possible, then Maybe Rhaegar was Arys? Or.. Tyrion? It leaves too many possible loopholes.

3) This would make sense, except for the fact that his little birds just witnessed him murder the Kings uncle. Why would he risk even more to reveal Aegons arrival? I'm pretty sure that these are the same "little birds" that heard most of the other ridiculous scandals floating around KL. Again, another illogical theory. It leaves too much open for interpretation.

Varys never calls him "Aegon Targaryen" or "Rhaegar's son". This quote tells Kevan that this boy's name is Aegon, he's been trained to rule, and he has a right to rule. If Aegon is a Blackfyre, and Varys is either a Blackfyre sympathizer or a Blackfyre himself, then this makes perfect sense. The Blackfyres believed they were the true heirs to the Iron Throne because Aegon IV gave the sword Blackfyre to Daemon Blackfyre and it was thought that this meant Aegon IV wanted Daemon to succeed him. So Varys might not even consider himself to be lying to Kevan: Aegon has a right to rule because he's the true heir to the throne (he'd see Dareon II's descendants as the real usurpers). Aegon's right to rule will be demonstrated by the notion that his education prepares him to be a better ruler than anyone else.

Another statement that could very well be possible.. but I don't see enough relavence to to the blackfyre relation. GRRM saved this Aegon bit for a reason. I feel as if he's using this to build the biggest comeback of a house gone to shambles.

[Skore]

Don't have the book to hand, but when Kevan says Aegon was dead, doesn't Varys actually tell him "No?"

[Tin Pony]

As to why Aegon could be the real deal: perception is reality. If he's able to convince the other lords that he is Targareyn then he "becomes one'. Similar to how Joff, Tommen, and myrcella are considered heirs to Robert even when they are in fact not his children.

[Wouter]

Varys is about as trustworthy as Littlefinger, depending on his word is extremely risky. LF lies, Lannisters lie, this doesn't surprise readers, but Varys apparently is still seen as a paragon of honesty, for some reason. So yes, he claims he serves the realm. LF claimed to Ned that the Goldcloaks would be on his side in the throne room confrontation - guess that you can't blindly trust people who haven't proved to be trustworthy. Varys' actions actually have caused the realm to bleed badly, that says more than his words do.

[Wouter]

As to why Aegon could be the real deal: perception is reality. If he's able to convince the other lords that he is Targareyn then he "becomes one'. Similar to how Joff, Tommen, and myrcella are considered heirs to Robert even when they are in fact not his children.

Perception is not reality; that is to say, Aegon is someone's son in reality, this is not subjective but an objective truth. If people are made to believe that someone else is his father/mother, then reality doesn't change, only the perception of some people. Note that opinions on Joffrey and co are divided; Stannis, for example, knows the truth, and it is very likely that Margaery and Olenna are also well aware of the truth (though they won't state so openly - Olenna does dare to hint at it sometimes, though). Opinions on Aegon will likewise be divided, not everyone will accept it as truth.

[skins7778]

I think (mostly hope) he's the real deal and think "Mummer's Dragon" is simply the same as if the prophecy said "Eunoch's Dragon". Basically its a Dragon that Varys hid and made sure was taken care of his whole life. "Varys Dragon" to be exact without the mystery of prophecy.

[Wouter]

Mummer's dragon is actually Dany's description of the actual prophecy, which showed a literal mummer's dragon swaying on poles, being cheered by a crowd. The dragon itself was clearly a mummer's construction in the vision, as opposed to a real dragon being used in a mummer's play.

Dany's wording was later used by Quaithe in her list of "travellers for Meereen" as well, in a context that screams Aegon (with Connington, the griffin).

[Tin Pony]

Perception is not reality; that is to say, Aegon is someone's son in reality, this is not subjective but an objective truth. If people are made to believe that someone else is his father/mother, then reality doesn't change, only the perception of some people. Note that opinions on Joffrey and co are divided; Stannis, for example, knows the truth, and it is very likely that Margaery and Olenna are also well aware of the truth (though they won't state so openly - Olenna does dare to hint at it sometimes, though). Opinions on Aegon will likewise be divided, not everyone will accept it as truth.

No doubt. Opinions about Aegon's birth will definitely be divided. I know I phrased my original statement very poorly. I agree that people thinking one thing does not magically change what actually happened. All I was trying to communicate is that when one person (or a mass of people in this instance) believe that Aegon is a true Targareyn they actually take it for a fact and in their minds it becomes a truth; its not necessarily true in actuality.

For example any true supporter of Tommen's credibility to take the thrown would say "A child born of incest?! no way, that's ridiculous and completely untrue" Of course the reader know the truth but in the mind that one supporter Tommen is Robert's son.

Anyways I fear I'm rambling and saying nothing of any value or sense, so I'll just quit now. :D

[Dragonfish]

1) I really feel as if this claim is far-fetched. There has never been any insinuation that Varys would risk his own well-being for an Aegon pretender. Varys is quoted many times as "Serving the realm". There's no logical reason for him betraying his own word. It would make a great fantasy, but it's simply illogical.

Illogical? Re-read that scene. Varys lauds Aegon because he was taught to be a good king. That is how he thinks he's serving the realm: he's raising someone to be a good king. There's no contradiction between the "serving the realm" quote and the fake Aegon theory.

And even if there was, that can be explained by the fact that Varys lies. If you don't believe that, then I have to wonder which book you've been reading.

2)Varys and Littlefinger share VERY few similarities.

Except for being the two most capable schemers and liars in the Seven Kingdoms, yeah, they have VERY few similarities.

If this theory was possible, then Maybe Rhaegar was Arys? Or.. Tyrion? It leaves too many possible loopholes.

Eh, what? I don't know how you go from this to "Rhaegar was actually Aerys." I'm not seeing the link there.

3) This would make sense, except for the fact that his little birds just witnessed him murder the Kings uncle. Why would he risk even more to reveal Aegons arrival?

King's Landing already knows about Aegon's arrival.

I'm pretty sure that these are the same "little birds" that heard most of the other ridiculous scandals floating around KL.

Talk about illogical. Varys may trust his little birds enough to bring him other people's secrets, but that doesn't mean he trusts them with his own secrets, especially one as momentous as this.

Again, another illogical theory. It leaves too much open for interpretation.

No, what's illogical is the idea that Varys would be perfectly willing to reveal such an important secret to people who don't need to know. That'd make him a pretty lousy schemer, which is the opposite of who Varys is.

Also, ask yourself this question: why did the little birds need to be in the scene in the first place? What purpose did they serve by being there? The answer may very well be that Martin wanted another set of ears there to justify Varys' lying about Aegon.

[Dragonfish]

Don't have the book to hand, but when Kevan says Aegon was dead, doesn't Varys actually tell him "No?"

Yes. But Varys was the first to mention Aegon. Then Kevan said he was dead, after which Varys corrected him, without letting him know which Aegon he was talking about to begin with.

[Ajunoo]

Was probably already talked about at some point somewhere but....what about Daeneris if he is the real deal? Varys and Illyrio support her claim too, right? Was her marriage only to get some dothraki on board, and then later she would marry Aegon?? Or was she just the...safety net

[BrosBeforeSnows]

I think (mostly hope) he's the real deal and think "Mummer's Dragon" is simply the same as if the prophecy said "Eunoch's Dragon". Basically its a Dragon that Varys hid and made sure was taken care of his whole life. "Varys Dragon" to be exact without the mystery of prophecy.

If Varys is a Blackfyre, chances are he wasn't really a mummer in his youth (and probably isn't a eunuch either).