[ADwD Spoliers] Why young Griff is the real deal!

[hotweaselsoup]

I think that Aegon is going to end up disproving that notion more than anything else. It's the subversion of the King Arthur story.

I agree. Varys is trying to fashion the "perfect king", but Aegon looks to be impetuous and headstrong from the few glimpses we've seen of him. I suspect that Aegon's time on the Iron Throne will be brief and bloody, if he even makes it that far. Whether he's a true Targ, a Blackfyre, or a fake, I don't think it matters much. The moral here is that true leaders cannot be made from books and lessons and fervent good intentions.

Varys plays the game of thrones better than anyone. I think Aegon upending the cyvasse board was tellingly Martinesque. :devil:

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Hi! This is my first post here and I wanted to post about my feelings in regards to this "mummers dragon" theory.

It was said by many members that young griff may in fact be a false dragon perpetuated by Varys and Illyrio. While this scenario may be somewhat plausible, its validity is debunked by Varys himself.

As quotes in the epilogue:

"He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Now, if you think about. What does Varys gain by lying to a dying man? He must in fact believe that Aegon is the real deal. Otherwise, he would of mentioned that the kingdom will be taken by a false Targayren under his own control.

I believe that the mummers dragon may actually have been Quentin Martell. Or, yet to come.

Any thoughts?

I'm just being a devil's advocate here, but where in Varys' speech does he say that this "Aegon" is the Aegon, as in, "the son of Rhaegar and Elia"? He calls him Aegon, yes. But he defends the kid's right to the throne based on his education, upbringing and character, not his bloodline. So while I'm on the fence as to whether Aegon is real (he's based on Perkin Warbeck, a fraud, but that doesn't mean anything, I guess), I don't think Varys' speech really proves it one way or the other. Besides, Aegon's legitimacy (or lack thereof) is obviously going to be a big running question. Why solve it immediately?

As to your last bit, Quentyn Martell was "the sun's son." Aegon, real or not, would be "the mummer's dragon." If you understand Varys to be the mummer, and read it as "Varys' dragon," it need not mean that he's a fake.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Was probably already talked about at some point somewhere but....what about Daeneris if he is the real deal? Varys and Illyrio support her claim too, right? Was her marriage only to get some dothraki on board, and then later she would marry Aegon?? Or was she just the...safety net

I took it that Varys and Illyrio wanted their eggs in multiple baskets, to up their chances of success. If Dany and Viserys failed, they'd have Aegon, and vice versa. They may even have been planning to eventually marry Dany and Aegon all along, and just used the Dothraki to gain the army they'd need.

In terms of succession, assuming that Aegon is the real deal and Jon is the legitimate product of a polygamous marriage, the legal Targaryen succession would be:

1. Aegon

2. Jon

3. Dany

[BrosBeforeSnows]

Was probably already talked about at some point somewhere but....what about Daeneris if he is the real deal? Varys and Illyrio support her claim too, right? Was her marriage only to get some dothraki on board, and then later she would marry Aegon?? Or was she just the...safety net

Viserys was the guy they wanted, not Dany. Dany was simply chattel used to buy Viserys an army, or so we were led to believe. And, from what we're told, Ilyrio never wanted Viserys to go along. He wanted to keep him safe by his side in Pentos, while Dany rode off and gained the allegiance of Drogo's khalasar.

However, if the "Team Blackfyre" theory is correct, Varys and Ilyrio may have sold Dany to the horselords in order to get rid of her. According to Targ tradition, Dany should've married Viserys, not Drogo. And by all accounts, Ilyrio was filthy rich. Why he sold Dany to the horselords when he could've just bought Viserys an army, I don't know. It's said in AGoT that the dragon eggs alone would've been enough to buy an army and a fleet of ships. But, if they really were intent on Viserys/Dany taking Westeros, why split them up and send Dany halfway around the world in the opposite direction?

But, the dragon eggs kind of destroy that theory. If Aegon was the guy, and Dany/Viserys were afterthoughts, why not give Aegon the eggs instead of her? It can be argued that Ilyrio never thought they would hatch, and gave them to her because they looked pretty, but they were also extremely valuable, even if they never hatched. And it's not like Viserys and Aegon didn't need the money. So why give the eggs to Dany if she's 3rd in line to the throne?

The only sense I can seem to make of it is Varys and Ilyrio were simply hedging their bets. Life in medieval society was brutal, and premature death pretty common. Let's say Varys and Ilyrio had put everything on Viserys... oops. There goes all their plans. So in that sense, the more Targs the better, as far as they're concerned. Otherwise, I see too many contradictions in their actions if they're supporting Aegon while secretly opposing Dany.

[Tagganaro]

I just wanted to say that it seems ridiculous to just trust Varys's word. He's a proven schemer and liar, and actually has much in common with Littlefinger. Neither is reliable at all, both tell lies all the time.

I do think it would be pretty cool if Aegon turns out to be the real deal, but the evidence is pretty suggestive of him being a fake.

[Adam West]

@Dragon fish - You argument touches on a lot of solid theories, I'll admit. However , I just do not see how a false dragon would benefit Varys, or anyone else for that matter. I appreciate you're input though.

[Adam West]

But, the dragon eggs kind of destroy that theory. If Aegon was the guy, and Dany/Viserys were afterthoughts, why not give Aegon the eggs instead of her? It can be argued that Ilyrio never thought they would hatch, and gave them to her because they looked pretty, but they were also extremely valuable, even if they never hatched. And it's not like Viserys and Aegon didn't need the money. So why give the eggs to Dany if she's 3rd in line to the throne?

You just made an amazing point here. Man, this all gets so confusing. I hope GRRM clarifies ALL of these possibilities in the next book. It's almost insane how there are so many meanings behind the original meaning for every scenario.

[Dragonfish]

@Dragon fish - You argument touches on a lot of solid theories, I'll admit. However , I just do not see how a false dragon would benefit Varys, or anyone else for that matter. I appreciate you're input though.

Faking Young Griff's heritage gives him a legitimate claim to the throne, according to the laws of inheritance. That's how it would benefit Varys' plan, I think. (Of course, if Aegon is actually a Blackfyre, then in Varys' mind Aegon would already have a legitimate claim to the throne. But the rest of Westeros might not agree with that, hence the cover story.)

[ckongo]

The term "mummer's dragon" was quoted by Jorah, not in the House of the Undying. I feel that the vision of people holding banners might represent their support for the return of the dragon Targaryan (Aegon); a lie that Daenerys would have to prove.Varys seems like an "ends justify the means" type, so he may feel that the realm would require a king molded to be a great ruler. But to get such a person on the iron throne he would need to promote the facade that they are Aegon.

[MtnLion]

Was probably already talked about at some point somewhere but....what about Daeneris if he is the real deal? Varys and Illyrio support her claim too, right? Was her marriage only to get some dothraki on board, and then later she would marry Aegon?? Or was she just the...safety net

Varys and Illyrio were backing Viserys, remember that only male children can be king. When they lost Viserys they went ahead with their backup plan, they never thought of Daenerys as a candidate for the Iron Throne, it is in King's Landing, not Dorne, after all.

[brashcandy]

Aegon being real or fake doesn't really matter, as some posters have already noted, although it makes for good discussion. What Martin seems to be showing is that you cannot create or engineer your idea of a perfect King and place him in place to do the 'best for the realm'. Daenerys will conquer Aegon simply because she is naturally the better leader. There are parallels here as well between Jon and Aegon. Jon (who most likely is the rightful heir) has grown up all his life thinking that he's a bastard who can never inherit anything. However, we see that his natural talent is to lead men and to be kind and sympathetic and visionary.

Aegon may have "learnt" that these are the right attributes to have and he may even display them at times, but he's a far cry from being a natural born leader. Also, Varys and co. may have thought that they were doing the best by setting him up with a great education, etc etc, but as we've seen so far Aegon now seems hell-bent on proving his worth as a leader, which will probably lead to a quick demise as he will be arrogant and take failure as a personal insult.

[Ajunoo]

Varys and Illyrio were backing Viserys, remember that only male children can be king. When they lost Viserys they went ahead with their backup plan, they never thought of Daenerys as a candidate for the Iron Throne, it is in King's Landing, not Dorne, after all.

Were they? I find it hard to believe that Varys (and Illyrio) were EVER hoping for Viserys to ascend to the throne. Varys is so proud that young Aegon knows the hardships of life, knows what it is to be hungry etc etc.... and then they back VISERYS? The cruel, vain, stupid, powerhungry, "it is my birthright" Viserys? No way.

Also, the male children part does not seem to bother them now that Viserys is dead either, does it? And by the way, How did Jon Connington get the mercenaries to fight for aegon again? I kinda forgot that part.

Also, I still can't see how marrying Daeneris off to the Dothraki makes any sense at all. They need an army? They got the money. The Dothraki seem to me phenomenally ill suited to conquer Westeros. They have practically no experience in Siegecraft (doesn't someone mention somewhere that the only way westeros could fall to them would be if Robert was too stupid to stay in his castles and try to meet them in the open?), they have a REALLY hard time with ships and open water, all they do is pillage, plunder, take slaves and extort money or gifts. And taking the war out on the general populace doesn't seem like the kind of idea that would appeal to Daenerys OR Varys.

Dothraki would have their uses in a Tywin Lannister style strategy to scour the lands clean of food etc. But for Varys and Daeny and their high ideals? Seems strange

[mediocre cheese]

If Varys is a Blackfyre, chances are he wasn't really a mummer in his youth (and probably isn't a eunuch either).

Someone brought up the theory that if he is blackfyre, that is why he is a eunuch. He mentions that he was castrated by some sorceror type, which could indicate that he is a blackfyre. Why would a sorceror need some random kid's balls? But as melisandre says, king's blood has magical properties.

[kg1982]

I agree. Varys is trying to fashion the "perfect king", but Aegon looks to be impetuous and headstrong from the few glimpses we've seen of him. I suspect that Aegon's time on the Iron Throne will be brief and bloody, if he even makes it that far. Whether he's a true Targ, a Blackfyre, or a fake, I don't think it matters much. The moral here is that true leaders cannot be made from books and lessons and fervent good intentions.

Varys plays the game of thrones better than anyone. I think Aegon upending the cyvasse board was tellingly Martinesque. :devil:

Kudos on that observation. I was too focused on what that scene told us about Aegon's personality that I missed the symbolism. Varys carefully plotted game gets upended because of a rash sixteen-year-old boy. And perhaps there's a large thematic reality in there - namely that even the most careful players in the game of throne are likely to be foiled by irrational human emotions. I think many readers feel that Littlefinger's plans get foiled because Sansa saves SweetRobin. And it seems like Varys' plans will get foiled because Aegon is far from his ideal king.

As for Aegon as the real prince, I highly doubt it because it takes away from Dany and Jon's arcs. Yes, Martin enjoys subverting fantasy tropes, but he does so in a way that serves the story. The two most shocking moments in the series, Ned's execution and the Red Wedding, were heavily foreshadowed. Aegon being real strikes me as shocking for the sake of being shocking rather than great storytelling.

[CrypticWeirwood]

I'd guess 75% chance Aegons a Blackfyre. 25% the real deal.

In both cases he's a real-deal Targaryen. It's just that in one he is not descended from Aegon VI, only from Aegon V. He may not be Rhaegar's son, but he has been well-reared to rule, much better that Aerys the Creep. I'm sure he'll be a dragon-snuggler in both cases.

Let's say that Aegon, Dany, Jon, and Tyrion are all descended from Aegon V, and that at least one is a bastard and at least one not so. That gives plenty of dragon riders, too.

It may be that the bastard(s) will serve as loyal Hand(s) to their monarch. They do not have to "usurp" their own throne. Bloodraven was too loyal to the Iron Throne to go against Maekar, even though Maekar disliked him and imprisoned him until Aegon VI came to power and let him out. Plus you do almost nothing to curtail the greenseer by putting him in the dungeon. He still has a thousand eyes. So Bloodraven waited it out while he still worked his sorcery and skinshifting magic. Maybe he thereby even had something to do with Maekar’s early demise. Dunno. We'll find out in twenty or thirty years I figure

Tyrion would make the best hand, as he is the "greyest" of them. By Martin's morality, that means he'd be the best leader. — certainly he has um hands-on experience. Whereas Aegon and Dany are more respectable (and have the recessive Targaryen look), and Jon may end up being a real hero. I don't think it would be bad if that's how it worked out.

The main problem I see is that Dany seems to expect to (continue to) be queen regnant, and I do not know that that would happen if she married Aegon.

[CrypticWeirwood]

As for Aegon as the real prince,

Edward VII was "a real prince" too. He was descended through the female line of a legitimized bastard branch. And he eventually came to power anyway.

There are a lot of War of the Roses parallels here. I bet that Aegon is Edward VII.

Does that change how people view him?

[Raksha the Demon]

Edward VII was "a real prince" too. He was descended through the female line of a legitimized bastard branch. And he eventually came to power anyway.

There are a lot of War of the Roses parallels here. I bet that Aegon is Edward VII.

Does that change how people view him?

Don't you mean Henry Tudor, a.k.a. Henry VII?

In which case, Aegon could end up taking and keeping the Iron Throne, and marrying either Sansa or Myrcella, assuming Dany is dead by then or renounces her claim. One difference though, Aegon is a boy, and an impetuous one at that; and Henry Tudor was a mature and patient man when he defeated Richard III (a defeat in which treachery played a large role I think) and took the throne.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Don't you mean Henry Tudor, a.k.a. Henry VII?

In which case, Aegon could end up taking and keeping the Iron Throne, and marrying either Sansa or Myrcella, assuming Dany is dead by then or renounces her claim. One difference though, Aegon is a boy, and an impetuous one at that; and Henry Tudor was a mature and patient man when he defeated Richard III (a defeat in which treachery played a large role I think) and took the throne.

Gosh yes, I have no brain tonight.

[corbon]

this new forum interface is really rubbish for quoting or editing!

Aegon as the real deal is a magnificent fit except for two large issues.

- Varys' 'exposition' could be lies

- the slayer of lies terminology being attached to the paper dragon on poles being cheered (note, not Quaithe's warning not to trust the 'mummer's dragon', which is sufficiently explained by Aegon being Varys-the-mummer's tool).

First, the slayer of lies.

Clearly the implication is that there is a lie to be slain in that vision. Most people interpret the lie as being the dragon being fake, and hence Dany will prove that Aegon is a fake Dragon - she will slay his lie. However, the dragon on poles in the vision is not being presented as a real dragon, it is just a dragon on poles, so you might say that cannot be the lie, since there is no falsehood there. On the other hand, as AverageCheese pointed out, there is an actual lie that we have seen being told to Dany present in that vision. That is the people cheering the return of the Dragon. Illyrio told Viserys that lie, in the presence of Dany, but we know from AFFC that the people don't really care at all which great lord rules them, and if anything would be most unhappy at the appearance of a new claimant to the throne meaning a new round of warfare devastating the land and the small-folk's livelihoods.

So there is a very reasonable alternative explanation for the Slayer of Lies prophecy that does not require Aegon to be fake.

Then, Vary's exposition.

Many argue that Varys would not expose himself to Kevan in this way, and that he would never tell the truth in front of that many witnesses.

First, I'd just like to say that Varys is a man too, eunuch or no. And a Martin creation. Which means he is not infallible, not omniscient and not superpowered. Varys can take risks and make mistakes just as much as anyone else. We just haven't seen many yet, because he is good at what he does and few of our POVs have been in a position to shed light on his errors. Arya for example, caught him in treason (conspiring with a foreigner and discussing the murder of the hand) but a combination of her inexperience (lack of understanding) and her father's lack of time to hear her out and question her properly) let Varys get away with it.

Varys isn't perfect, so don't assume he can't make any mistakes.

Second it is worth noting that Varys' little birds are Varys'[i/] little birds. He has complete power over them, or as near as. In addition, the little birds are there, not to 'listen' but to complete the kill. This ties them closer to Varys as he gives them a secret power, and reduces their possibilities of treachery by making them complicit.

So I think Varys' 'exposition' is much less risky than people make out. And therefore more likely to be true. He has no need to lie, he is about to kill those he is lying to and tie his own people assisting in that killing even closer to his side.

There is a reason that the classic villain mistake is exposition. It is a human need. After years of holding everything in, playing everything so tightly to the chest, it is a great relief to simply tell someone. And what safer way for Varys, than to tell someone he is about to kill anyway. It is the one time he really can tell the truth.

Evil Overlord/Devious Spymaster 101 not-withstanding.

All that said, Varys could be lying and Aegon could be fake. Options are still open.

But I'm in the camp of a great interconnected 'Varys/Illyrio arranged Aegon, who is real, and Ashara as Lemore, and Danerys/Viserys as a sideshow' plot and added in Connington later to boot.

And then the Dragons changed everything, whether Varys or Illyrio know it or not.

[Ajunoo]

What is Illyrio's interest in Westeros btw? Vary's wants the good of the realm, okay, let's assume that is true. What does Illyrio want? Money? Power?

Could he have known about the dragon eggs? Is he maybe interested in magic? Could he perhaps be the one who cut Varys? :) Ok very much out there but still... If it's power and money he wants, it seems to me that publicly supporting Daenerys is an awfully large risk to take if it goes wrong. And pre-dragons, chances didn't seem too good for her either.