Shaggydog Stark Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Even a blind man could have seen that Ned wasn't going to hurt Robert like that on his death bed, nor be so dishonorable to seize Renly's children. Cersei doesn't need to be a master person analyzer like Littlefinger to see that. :P But if LF hadn't saved her ass, yeah, she'd be screwed. That's all I am saying :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bourne Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 To be fair, I don't think Cersei's exact plan was "GET ROBERT DRUNK, HAVE HIM GET KILLED BY BOAR." There are a lot of things that can go wrong in a hunting trip. Once Robert gets drunk of the strongwine (which is a given) I'm sure Cersei just knew something would go wrong and he'd get killed. Hell, perhaps she just expected him to die of alcohol poisoning. And come on, although Littlefinger is a master manipulator, he's not God. He took a big chance just like Cersei did with the boar. He got lucky. There was a good possibility that the Lords would have saw through his plan and taken Sweetrobin. Agreed on the first part. But she is still betting on an accident. Now if she has some type of "accident" planned, and the boar just happened to get there first, it's a different story. But Littlefinger bought Lyn Corbray. He orchestrated Corbray's actions in the parlay. He knew the Lords would back down to atone for the breach of etiquette (why they would do that I don't know. But LF did). You could argue that it's a gamble that Corbray could be bought, but it's still an aspect Littlefinger can influence, whereas Cersei was just hoping for an accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sevumar Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On another note, all the really good schemes we saw took time to plan and move pawns into position like the way LF and Tywin play. I can't help but remember Tyrion saying that plans needed a certain "ripening". Cersei's so far have been thoughtless and done on whims. I think some of them may come back to bite her. If she doesn't change she may have made her bed. Yeah, I think you've definitely hit upon the difference between our top tier conspirators and all the rest. Varys, LF, and Tywin do a lot of work with less powerful (and less visible) pieces they know they can control. Once they have their framework in place, they can begin to nudge the bigger players who believe they're in control of their own destinies. In contrast, people like Cersei were almost always forced to depend upon the goodwill of others and their own ability to react to developments and shape their plans as things evolved. It seems to me someone like Doran had the ability of LF or Varys to take the long view, but without the ability to put those pawns into play that set the stage for a successful implementation of the plan later on. I think we're setting up to see the masters learn some eye-opening lessons, as their star pupils turn out to have other things in mind than just following the plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tini Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 To be fair, I don't think Cersei's exact plan was "GET ROBERT DRUNK, HAVE HIM GET KILLED BY BOAR." There are a lot of things that can go wrong in a hunting trip. Once Robert gets drunk of the strongwine (which is a given) I'm sure Cersei just knew something would go wrong and he'd get killed. Hell, perhaps she just expected him to die of alcohol poisoning....EDIT: I just lol'd at the idea of Cersei in the dead of night writing her "PLAN TO KILL ROBERT" on a piece of parchment. "1. GET ROBERT DRUNK 2. GET HIM KILLED BY BOAR," accompanied by detailed drawings. Then she sits there and analyzes it until morning. She analyzed this plan for 15 years.She came up with that plan on her wedding night. Jaime's attempts to improve on it were met with rejection because she was fed up with being given counsel all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashcandy Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 But Littlefinger bought Lyn Corbray. He orchestrated Corbray's actions in the parlay. He knew the Lords would back down to atone for the breach of etiquette (why they would do that I don't know. But LF did). You could argue that it's a gamble that Corbray could be bought, but it's still an aspect Littlefinger can influence, whereas Cersei was just hoping for an accident. LF seems to have an uncanny ability to smell out which people can be bought (Lyn Corbray) and what their price is (gold, boys). The first is a real talent, you have to be an astute observer to smell out weaknesses, the second one is his information network which he accesses to find out the habits and interests of these men. Being a brothel owner doesn't hurt, along with having lots of money stockpiled from his embezzlement days as Master of Coin. But I think LF does have real talent for analysing people, just like Varys has a real talent for disguise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaggydog Stark Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Agreed on the first part. But she is still betting on an accident. Now if she has some type of "accident" planned, and the boar just happened to get there first, it's a different story. But Littlefinger bought Lyn Corbray. He orchestrated Corbray's actions in the parlay. He knew the Lords would back down to atone for the breach of etiquette (why they would do that I don't know. But LF did). You could argue that it's a gamble that Corbray could be bought, but it's still an aspect Littlefinger can influence, whereas Cersei was just hoping for an accident. Exactly! Yeah, I think you've definitely hit upon the difference between our top tier conspirators and all the rest. Varys, LF, and Tywin do a lot of work with less powerful (and less visible) pieces they know they can control. Once they have their framework in place, they can begin to nudge the bigger players who believe they're in control of their own destinies. In contrast, people like Cersei were almost always forced to depend upon the goodwill of others and their own ability to react to developments and shape their plans as things evolved. It seems to me someone like Doran had the ability of LF or Varys to take the long view, but without the ability to put those pawns into play that set the stage for a successful implementation of the plan later on. I think we're setting up to see the masters learn some eye-opening lessons, as their star pupils turn out to have other things in mind than just following the plan. Thank you for writing this post. This is exactly what I was trying to say but for some reason my brain was not working and I couldn't find the words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZacharyB Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Agreed on the first part. But she is still betting on an accident. Now if she has some type of "accident" planned, and the boar just happened to get there first, it's a different story. But Littlefinger bought Lyn Corbray. He orchestrated Corbray's actions in the parlay. He knew the Lords would back down to atone for the breach of etiquette (why they would do that I don't know. But LF did). You could argue that it's a gamble that Corbray could be bought, but it's still an aspect Littlefinger can influence, whereas Cersei was just hoping for an accident. I would assume Cersei instructed Lancel to cause an accident of some sorts if nothing else occurred, but since it doesn't say that in the text I won't vouch for it. It just doesn't seem like something Cersei would overlook. And I realize that he bought Corbray, but that still doesn't make it a 100% guarantee that he would get out of the Vale with Sweetrobin still under his guardianship. It was still mostly LF being lucky enough that the Vale Lords didn't see through his scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZacharyB Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 She analyzed this plan for 15 years.She came up with that plan on her wedding night. Jaime's attempts to improve on it were met with rejection because she was fed up with being given counsel all the time. :lol: I love this. Jamie: You know, why don't you just give the man some poison while he sleeps?Cersei: SHUT UP JAMIE, THAT'S A HORRIBLE IDEA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashcandy Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 And I realize that he bought Corbray, but that still doesn't make it a 100% guarantee that he would get out of the Vale with Sweetrobin still under his guardianship. It was still mostly LF being lucky enough that the Vale Lords didn't see through his scheme. But remember LF wasn't banking on their good will, he was betting that they would be shamed after the disgraceful performance by Lyn. He was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaggydog Stark Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 But remember LF wasn't banking on their good will, he was betting that they would be shamed after the disgraceful performance by Lyn. He was right. Do I even have to say I agree with you anymore? ;) I tried to "like this" post but I was over my quota for positive votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZacharyB Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 But remember LF wasn't banking on their good will, he was betting that they would be shamed after the disgraceful performance by Lyn. He was right. Absolutely, but that doesn't mean that they might not have. You can't deny that LF got lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashcandy Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Do I even have to say I agree with you anymore? ;) I tried to "like this" post but I was over my quota for positive votes. :cheers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashcandy Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Absolutely, but that doesn't mean that they might not have. You can't deny that LF got lucky. In this instance, luck had nothing to do with it. It was all about knowing how human beings think and react and planning for that. It was a brilliant plan. Even Sansa is impressed ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaggydog Stark Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 In this instance, luck had nothing to do with it. It was all about knowing how human beings think and react and planning for that. It was a brilliant plan. Even Sansa is impressed ;) This is why I am hopeful that Sansa will become a kick ass player. As much as I hate LF, I have to admit he is a master at this. Sansa couldn't have gotten a better a teacher. I just wish he would stop molesting her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZacharyB Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 In this instance, luck had nothing to do with it. It was all about knowing how human beings think and react and planning for that. It was a brilliant plan. Even Sansa is impressed ;) Yes, Littlefinger predicted how the Lords would act, and it just happened to work. Brilliant plan, yes, but still involved luck. There was the possibility that the Lords would still act against him even with the charade he threw on. There's no human being in the world who knows 100% how a human being will react, and the chances of the Vale Lords going with LF were not close to 100%. I hope you know there's nothing wrong with a plan involving luck. It doesn't make the plan any less brilliant. It just irks me that you think LF is some sort of God that knows how human beings will react to every given situation. As BA as I think the guy is, he's not that BA. @Shaggy: Oh, she will be. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaggydog Stark Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Yes, Littlefinger predicted how the Lords would act, and it just happened to work. Brilliant plan, yes, but still involved luck. There was the possibility that the Lords would still act against him even with the charade he threw on. There's no human being in the world who knows 100% how a human being will react, and the chances of the Vale Lords going with LF were not close to 100%. I hope you know there's nothing wrong with a plan involving luck. It doesn't make the plan any less brilliant. It just irks me that you think LF is some sort of God that knows how human beings will react to every given situation. As BA as I think the guy is, he's not that BA. @Shaggy: Oh, she will be. :P I hope she really does. :). However, I disagree with you, on the luck element. He moved his pieces into place and cornered the Lords of the Vale into a position where the only honorable thing which was left to them was to give him the benefit of the doubt. LF forces his opponents to act like they do. However, he does admit to Sansa that there are times when the pieces are too obstinate to do what they are supposed to do, so then you have to come up with another plan. Therefore, if they had not done as he expected he would keep planning other things until he makes sure they do what they are supposed to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brashcandy Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Yes, Littlefinger predicted how the Lords would act, and it just happened to work. Brilliant plan, yes, but still involved luck. There was the possibility that the Lords would still act against him even with the charade he threw on. There's no human being in the world who knows 100% how a human being will react, and the chances of the Vale Lords going with LF were not close to 100%. I hope you know there's nothing wrong with a plan involving luck. It doesn't make the plan any less brilliant. It just irks me that you think LF is some sort of God that knows how human beings will react to every given situation. As BA as I think the guy is, he's not that BA. @Shaggy: Oh, she will be. :P I know :) I didn't mean to imply that he's God, that irks me too. All plans involve luck though, some more than others. LF did get lucky that his planned worked, and I think he himself realises this too. But his plan was fundamentally based on a knowledge of human nature, and he exploits it admirably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bourne Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Absolutely, but that doesn't mean that they might not have. You can't deny that LF got lucky. Ok, you could say that. But there is a difference between luck you create and luck that falls into your lap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICE CROW Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I know :) I didn't mean to imply that he's God, that irks me too. All plans involve luck though, some more than others. LF did get lucky that his planned worked, and I think he himself realises this too. But his plan was fundamentally based on a knowledge of human nature, and he exploits it admirably. You guys are talking about Littlefingers plans, he is a brillant strategist, that can't be denied. But we see not al of his plans end the way he wishes, im fairly certain he never wanted Catelyn to die. Which although not directly his fault, the series of events he started help lead to her eventual demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaggydog Stark Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 You guys are talking about Littlefingers plans, he is a brillant strategist, that can't be denied. But we see not al of his plans end the way he wishes, im fairly certain he never wanted Catelyn to die. Which although not directly his fault, the series of events he started help lead to her eventual demise. You are right. However, he does manage to get most of what he wants. He is truly a master. I think he is much more dangerous than Varys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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