Why should the Vale help Sansa?

[Faint]

Also, the Mad Mouse need not doom Sansa. He is a lone guy in the middle of the Vale during Winter. If he gets her out of the Gates of the Moon after 1:500? odds he still has to travel hundreds of miles through snow towards the coast, get Sansa on a ship and make it to KL. That are pretty long odds.

His very existence is the strongest counter to your argument. The only reason we would be made aware of his presence in the Vale and his original mission to discover Sansa is if these two things were going to factor later on.

Also, I don't think, whatever his involvement in Sansa's story, his ultimate purpose is to snatch her away. More likely, he'll send information to King's Landing or perhaps give such information to Jaime and/or the Brotherhood Without Banners (whether willingly or unwillingly) revealing Sansa's location.

From there, we have multiple options with respect how the story will go. Perhaps Cersei sends Ser Robert Strong to assassinate her. Perhaps Jaime is forced to go rescue her while Brienne is held hostage by Catelyn. Perhaps the Hound hears about her precarious position and comes to protect her.

As I said, a lot of options.

Is that correct? I thought AFfC and ADwD have more or less the same timeline. Sansa leaving the Eyrie for winter. White Raven that anounces Whinter at Kevans death.

Remember, the Kevan chapter occurs several weeks after Jaime has disappeared which itself occurs several weeks after Dragonstone is taken.It is almost assured that the first couple Sansa chapters in TWoW, if not more, will occur during the same time period as ADwD.

[Lykos]

@Eleana Targaryen

Yes of course. Blind Girl - "snowing in the Riverlands"

@Faint

I thought you were implying an even greater timegap. I was confused and misunderstood.

A couple of month for news to travel from the Vale to KL doesn´t seem that odd to me, considering winter impaired seafaring, closed gates to the Vale and LF secret scheming.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Is there anyone alive who would be able to confirm Tyrion's previous married status for Sansa? As in, go up to some Sparrows and tell the story?

The Septon who married them, the guards who raped Tysha, everybody they told, everybody who heard Tyrion/Tywin comments on it (for example, when Tywin and Tyrion discusses Joffreys follies in the Lannister war camp after the Green Fork, probably not the only occassion. They can't be all dead and LF needs just a single one.

His very existence is the strongest counter to your argument. The only reason we would be made aware of his presence in the Vale and his original mission to discover Sansa is if these two things were going to factor later on.

Also, I don't think, whatever his involvement in Sansa's story, his ultimate purpose is to snatch her away. More likely, he'll send information to King's Landing or perhaps give such information to Jaime and/or the Brotherhood Without Banners (whether willingly or unwillingly) revealing Sansa's location.

From there, we have multiple options with respect how the story will go. Perhaps Cersei sends Ser Robert Strong to assassinate her. Perhaps Jaime is forced to go rescue her while Brienne is held hostage by Catelyn. Perhaps the Hound hears about her precarious position and comes to protect her.

As I said, a lot of options.

Yes, it could go a lot of ways. But the statement was that Sansa is immediately and 100% doomed as soon as the Mad Mouse recognizes her, to which I object.

[Hear Us Roar]

They shouldn't. The smart thing would be to kill her and Little Finger

and keep their heads down till the iron throne settles

they have food and plenty of fresg fighters'

[Hear Us Roar]

double post

[ElizaMartell]

They shouldn't. The smart thing would be to kill her and Little Finger

and keep their heads down till the iron throne settles

they have food and plenty of fresg fighters'

But what reason would they have to kill Sansa? Little Robin is fond of Alayne and killing her may send him into a fit that he may never recover from. Littlefinger has more of an active role in terms of plots but killing Sansa would be ridiculous.

[ElizaMartell]

Oh, I have a theory that Fair Walda may be one of the envious maidens in the Riverlands (The ones Litttlefinger was talking about in the last Sansa POV in AFFC) that would be envious of the Alayne and Harry match seeing her mother is a Hardyng. Would Littlefinger have thought of the Frey connection to all this? I doubt it.

[jarl the climber]

I think you really overrate the power of the Freys, they burned a lot of bridges with the Red Wedding and the death of Tywin and Cerseis trial leaves them in a precarious posistion. The forces they sent North seem to be doomed no matter who wins up there.

[ElizaMartell]

I think you really overrate the power of the Freys, they burned a lot of bridges with the Red Wedding and the death of Tywin and Cerseis trial leaves them in a precarious posistion. The forces they sent North seem to be doomed no matter who wins up there.

The Freys are clever enough to notice how spotless the Vale seems in comparison to the Riverlands, no? Fair Walda is related to the Hardyngs of the Vale, no? Its not impossible for them to notice how crap the Lannisters are shaping up and want to link themselves with other powerful families. The potential heir of the Vale would be something they would consider and seeing there's already a qualifying family connection; is the idea Deana Hardyng wanting to set her daughter up with a heir to a region untouched by war so hard to believe? Its more believable than Sansa winning the support of the Vale just for being a Stark.

[the Scorpion Knight]

The Freys are clever enough to notice how spotless the Vale seems in comparison to the Riverlands, no? Fair Walda is related to the Hardyngs of the Vale, no? Its not impossible for them to notice how crap the Lannisters are shaping up and want to link themselves with other powerful families. The potential heir of the Vale would be something they would consider and seeing there's already a qualifying family connection; is the idea Deana Hardyng wanting to set her daughter up with a heir to a region untouched by war so hard to believe? Its more believable than Sansa winning the support of the Vale just for being a Stark.

well considering the ruined reputation the freys have

and that the hill tribes joined stannis to save "arya" from

the vale is safer for sansa once she realisies that this will be the safest way to get home

[jarl the climber]

The Freys are a relatively new house, they are notable for their greed and cruelty. They do have a couple of marriage connections to the Twins but the Vales trade with White Harbor and the North is much more important to them. The Freys are just bannermen to the Tullys, the Starks are the descendants of kings going back 8,000 year, plus the Starks have marriage connections to people in the Vale as well. I think that the Freys would want to have one of there own marry Harry but that isn't working out real well is it, They were going to marry Manderlys daughters but all those guys are getting killed aren't they? Little Walder was to marry Wylla, hes dead and Rhaegar was to marry the older girl but hes dead too. I think that if Stannis wins in the North there is no hope for the Freys marrying Harry, that would mean war with Stannis and the North with the Iron Bank behind them. What can the Freys do to them, invite them to a wedding? They are bogged down with Riverrun and Darry, the Lannisters are trying to hold down the throne, so if they raise another force it will go to Kings Landing.

[ElizaMartell]

You're not getting my point. The Haryng connection is something the Frey's can exploit to the fullest either in disagreement to the Harry match but also if Sansa is revealed.

[the Scorpion Knight]

You're not getting my point. The Haryng connection is something the Frey's can exploit to the fullest either in disagreement to the Harry match but also if Sansa is revealed.

currently NOBODY wants to be reminded that hes related to a frey (The darrys can't protest)

[ElizaMartell]

currently NOBODY wants to be reminded that hes related to a frey (The darrys can't protest)

Is there any evidence of that? People don't like the Freys but I dont recall much evidence of people distancing themselves from them.

[jarl the climber]

I beleive that if Alayne is revealed to be Sansa the marriage would be generally popular in the Vale form what I understand. Look at how the Lords Declarant act when Ser Lyn Corboray draws his sword during the parley int the Eyrie, the general reaction is to say "we are not Freys". If the Freys could have gotten control of White Harbor maybe things would be different but they got played. The hardyngs are a knightly house and not particularly important, the Freys played no part in raising Harry, Lady Waynewood did and her Mother was probaly a Stark.

Is there any evidence of that? People don't like the Freys but I dont recall much evidence of people distancing themselves from them.

There is evidence of people killing them.

[ElizaMartell]

But that really isn't evidence of people distancing themselves from Freys. Lets say a Frey member really did want to make a marriage with Harry only to find out Sansa usurped them. Don't you think they'd bring out her marriage and other qualifiers before trying to effectively destroy her?

[jarl the climber]

No one can deny that Sansa did have some sort of marriage to Tyrion but it is unconsumated, the Freys aren't going to have to get involved for people to know that, I just haven't seen any evidence that the Freys really have any real influence in the Vale as of yet. The Freys aren't trying to win influence, they are going for power, pure and simple, so they can compel people to give them what they want. They would marry one of their own to Sansa in a heartbeat if they had the chance irregardless of her marriage to Tyrion. I think Cerseis efforts to destroy Sansa will be more signifigant than the Freys. Also if the Vale decides to support Stannis, he can annul the marriage or have Mel annul it, he doesn't give a damm about the High Septon, all though I think it would be better if she got the HS to annul it for politcal reasons.

[ElizaMartell]

Who knows its unconsumated? Only people at King's Landing, none of which are her friends. And Stannis can't annul jack due to his association to another faith. So unless Littlefinger can consure up a council of faith no one will help. Expecially if Tyrion comes riding back with a dragon. The Freys want power but are struggling to hold it in the Riverlands.

[jarl the climber]

From Stannis's point of veiw it would be her marriage by the High Septon that had no validity, Mel as priestess of R'hollor can say the marriage contract has no force and that it wasn't consumated. WE don't know if Sansas maidenhead is intact, if it is she doesn't need any witnesses, all though she could have lost it horseback riding, we just don't know but I don't think its an issue if the Vale goes for Stannis they will portray the HS as a Lannister flunky and annul the marriage irregardless of Tyrion being alive or giving his permission, the fact that marriage was done against her will and without the permission of her family will be enough for a lot of people. The fact that Sansa is pious, highborn and a potential new force in the Riverlands that is trying to feed and help the smallfolk there could threaten the HS authority and support, I think Sansa is way more of a threat to the faith than they are to her if they aren't careful.

[LadyoftheNorth72]

At the moment, all we have to go on regarding LF's plans is what he has "confided" to Sansa. Given that (despite his lessons in piecehood) he very obviously sees her as one of his own little personal pawns, I don't think we can put too much stock in what he told her. As has been pointed out repeatedly, there are a great number of holes in the plan he described to Sansa. Her still being legally married and wanted for regicide, the fact that she must "win over" Harry the Heir (not usually a factor in arranged marriages), the possibility of another Stark heir still existing (and that there is currently an imposter wandering about in the North, whom most of the realm believes to actually be Arya), hole after hole without end, amen.

The thing is, LF is a goid reader of people; maybr one of the best. It is how he has gotten where he is. He is bound to have recognized Sansa's loneliness in the Eyrie, and fully expects her friendship with Randa to blossom. Since girls and young women are not well known for keeping secrets from each other, the entire betrothal story may have all been some pipe dream he fed to Sansa, knowing it would appeal to her romantic nature, knowing she does not yet have the political acumen to see all its flaws, and knowing that it will probably take less than a week before she shares her entire life history with her new bedmate. My personal opinion is that LF's actual plans have about zero to do with marrying Sansa to anyone; it is just another tactic to keep her happy and under control a while longer and possibly to allow rumors to start swirling about who she really is. What better way to bring the mice out into the open than to bait the traps?

If LF can start some ubsubstantiated but interesting rumors about Alayne's true identity, it could give him a chance to get a read on where the Vale lords will fall regarding her, without having to actually come out and confirm her identity. A thin line to walk, yes, but he has walked thinner.

I also think that we cannot discount his remark about the three queens. He knows about Dany, I would bet the farm on it. IMO his current plans are multilayered and all have plan Bs and escape routes built into them. He did not go to all this trouble to gain control of Sansa just to marry her off to some vain, horny teenage guy. And the last person he would confide his real intentions and plans to is Sansa herself. Right now he has her exactly where he wants her. If he did not concoct some story about his plans for her future, she might start asking him inconvenient questions about just what he DOES intend to do with her. This way she (in his mind) stays happy with her romantic little secret, continues the ruse that they are doing everything possible for poor Sweetrobin (ruse for him, truth for her, but her genuine care for the boy lends credence to his pose as the caring stepfather). This all buys him time for whatever else he is cooking up.

We need to keep in mind that until they reached the boat, none of us had a clue that LF was the one behind Dontos' rescue of Sansa. Or his involvement with Joff's murder. I think it would be naive of us to assume, based on a little fireside chat with Alayne, that we have any genuine grasp on what he is truly up to.