Middle East/North Africa #11 - now with added Theoretical Collapse

[Guest]

Rouhani's election seems like it might lead to less overt antagonism from Iran, which would be nice.

If that is the case, I wonder if the Neocons are pissed that Rouhani won...

[Shryke]

I doubt they care. Their side of the antagonism was never based on anything to begin with.

Shit, wasn't Iran the one added to the "Axis of Evil" just to round it out to 3 cause it sounded better?

[Horza]

Oh, great

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Violent sectarian spillover from the Syrian conflict reached across southern Lebanon on Tuesday, with armed clashes by rival groups of Sunni and Shiite militia members in the Mediterranean port of Sidon that left at least two people dead and forced the Lebanese Army to seal off the area.

[Istakhr]

And finally Al-Qaida got its hands on chemical weapons.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/30/us-syria-crisis-turkey-idUSBRE94T0YO20130530

The police raids were carried out in Turkey's largest city Istanbul as well as in the southern provinces of Mersin, Adana and Hatay near the Syrian border, said Adana governor Huseyin Avni Cos.

Cos said unknown chemical materials were found during the raids and sent away for investigation. He denied media reports that a small amount of the nerve agent sarin had been uncovered.

Six of those arrested were later released, Cos said, while the other six were being kept for further questioning. He did not say which organization had been targeted in the raids.

Earlier, several Turkish newspapers had reported that 12 people from Syria's al Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front who allegedly had been planning an attack inside Turkey and were in possession of 2 kg (4.5 pounds) of sarin, had been detained in Adana.

[KAH]

Aside from the sheer terror effect, how effective would sarin be in the hands of any given al-Qaeda franchise? The Aum Shinrikyo terror attack killed 13, and that was the result of targetting 5 subway lines.

[KAH]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...e-east-23125387

Muslim Brotherhood HQ stormed, millions protesting in Egypt. 8 people dead so far. Morsi says he'll stay on.

[Schlimazl]

Meanwhile the death toll rose to 25 and Egyptian military gave Morsi 48 hour ultimatum to reach agreement with the opposition, what they will do after 48 hour period expires, and I will go on a limb and bet that crisis won't be solved by that time, is unclear, military later clarified that coup is not on the table, maybe they will force elections, overseeing the transition period like the last time.Muslim Brotherhood of course dismissed the ultimatum, maybe we will see their supporters hit the streets next.

[Horza]

What a mess.

Can't believe so many in the Opposition want SCAF back in charge, after their last little stint. Goes to show just how badly Morsi and the MB have played their cards.

Here's a nice little rundown on how Egypt has gotten from the euphoria of January 25, 2011 to where we are today.

[Schlimazl]

Well Tantawi is gone, so is the previous chief of staff, I forgot his name, I think Morsi removed couple of other generals.Somewhat new faces got to help their image, that and militarist society, Army also did a pretty show of helicopters flying overhead with Egyptian flags after the announcement, nothing like stroking a bit of national pride, especially after the recent crisis with Ethiopia.

Personally I think proportionally representative parliamentary would suit Egypt better, but discontent and taking to the streets wil persist fo r quite some time no matter who is in charge or what the system.

Meanwhile, Turkish deputy prime-minister blames Jewish Diaspora for recent protest there:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/jewish-diaspora-behind-gezi-protests-turkish-deputy-prime-minister-says.aspx?pageID=238&nID=49858&NewsCatID=338

The year is 2013 and still people can't invent some new scapegoat.

[Horza]

al-Sisi replaced Tantawi after Morsi forced the latter out. People at the time thought that meant he was in Morsi's pocket...

The Brotherhood are in a real bind, as much as they'd rather not have the army cast them out it would be crazy to stand down voluntarily - not only would have another EIJ situation but the army would have carte blanche the next time they were back in power.

[Schlimazl]

Well, the ultimatum expired something like half an hour ago, so the ball is in the army's court now.There are rumours that some of the Muslim Brothers are already arrested, so the shit might have already started.

[Schlimazl]

Al-Sisi just gave statement on tv, Morsi is dismissed, constitution is frozen and will be amended later as to reflect all sectors of Egyptian society, temporary president will be Chief of Supreme Court with a technocrat cabinet.As far as i understood constitution comes first, then elections to parliament, then presidential elections.

Interesting what is Salafi stance on this, there are conflicting reports and I think their position might be crucial, our TV said that army actualy disarmed Muslim Brotherhood security forces earlier and most of the killed in clashes last night were their supporters.

[Spring Bass]

That's pretty shitty. As I mentioned in the other thread, I've got no love for the Muslim Brotherhood - but Morsi was/is democratically elected as President. And ultimately, any stable civilian, democratic government has to put the military in line so that they can't or won't simply topple the civilian government whenever they feel like it. This only makes that situation worse, and any successor government more fragile.

[Shryke]

That's pretty shitty. As I mentioned in the other thread, I've got no love for the Muslim Brotherhood - but Morsi was/is democratically elected as President. And ultimately, any stable civilian, democratic government has to put the military in line so that they can't or won't simply topple the civilian government whenever they feel like it. This only makes that situation worse, and any successor government more fragile.

Except it's not that simple and Morsi was making alot of moves towards increasing his own and his parties power and crushing the opposition. He was definitely feeling up the borders of tyranny. Not that a military coup of sorts is the perfect solution or anything, but it's not just "Well, he was democratically elected, so that's that".

[Schlimazl]

It's worth noting that Army didn't instigate the current crisis, unless there is something we don't know.certainly there is no love lost between Army and ikhwans and certainly they seized the opportunity, but they didn't herd the people to the streets.the fact the constitution was written as Muslim Brotherhood wanted, without secular elements certainly contributed, I think writing it before elections is the right step, and better still would be parliamentary republic with coalition government, it will make various parts of society feel represented instead of consolidating power in the hands of single group.

Meanwhile Army has shut down all three of Brotherhood channels, and there are reports that clashes with ikhwans have already started, probably there will a bloody night.Salafi appear to agree with Morsi's removal, so there is that.

On the surreal note Assad calls Morsi to step down and announcing the end of political islam.

ETA:tv just showed the clip of Morsi calling do resist the coup and defend the constitution.There were rumours that he is under house arrest in the Presidential Palace, but it appears that he sits in the MB headquarters.

[Horza]

Nathan Brown - read the whole thing.

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and its sister organizations represent the most successful non-governmental organizations in Arab history. No other movements have been able to sustain, reinvent, and replicate themselves over so much time and space. And there are two secrets to that success: a tight-knit organizational structure that rewards loyalty and the ability to adjust and adapt.

Marc Lynch

Nobody should celebrate a military coup against Egypt's first freely elected president, no matter how badly he failed or how badly they hate the Muslim Brotherhood. Turfing out Morsy will not come close to addressing the underlying failures that have plagued Egypt's catastrophic transition over the last two and a half years. The military's intervention is an admission of the failure of Egypt's entire political class, and those now celebrating already probably know that they could soon rue the coup.

This article is mostly about what the US didn't do right, but this para is the plain truth. The Egyptian political class just flushed two-plus years of opportunities down the toilet.

[Guest]

Marc Lynch

This article is mostly about what the US didn't do right, but this para is the plain truth. The Egyptian political class just flushed two-plus years of opportunities down the toilet.

Thank you for that. I saw Brown's article. I don't know him despite reading TNR avidly for years. Who is he?

At any rate, it's hard not to find this stuff exciting. But "exciting" has a positive connotation as a word that it doesn't necessarily deserve. I'm excited not in the sense that this is positive but that it's simply a huge development. I am afraid that I'm reminded of this epic quote from Il Machia himself:

It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out nor more doubtful of success nor more dangerous to handle than to initiate a new order of things; for the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order; this lukewarmness arising partly from the incredulity of mankind who does not truly believe in anything new until they actually have experience of it.

[Horza]

Thank you for that. I saw Brown's article. I don't know him despite reading TNR avidly for years. Who is he?

Reading the article will tell you who he is.

At any rate, it's hard not to find this stuff exciting. But "exciting" has a positive connotation as a word that it doesn't necessarily deserve. I'm excited not in the sense that this is positive but that it's simply a huge development. I am afraid that I'm reminded of this epic quote from Il Machia himself:

In this case there isn't a 'reformer' per se. The Brothers alienated people not because they had a reformist vision but because they were concerned with shoring up their position rather than governing. They were always up against it as they are anathema to the old guard but they never showed any signs of being able to work around that by making alliances outside their base.

[Guest]

Reading the article will tell you who he is.

But not really beyond the credentials at the end, right?

In this case there isn't a 'reformer' per se. The Brothers alienated people not because they had a reformist vision but because they were concerned with shoring up their position rather than governing. They were always up against it as they are anathema to the old guard but they never showed any signs of being able to work around that by making alliances outside their base.

What a conundrum, though. It seems not unreasonable, given the restraints in place, that it was a staggering achievement that the MB ever got to where it did. But maybe you can help me understand your last statement a bit better. How were they not reformers if they were anethema to the old guard? That almost sounds like a definition for reform.

[Horza]

But not really beyond the credentials at the end, right?

What you learn about him is up to you.

What a conundrum, though. It seems not unreasonable, given the restraints in place, that it was a staggering achievement that the MB ever got to where it did. But maybe you can help me understand your last statement a bit better. How were they not reformers if they were anethema to the old guard? That almost sounds like a definition for reform.

Not really when the old guard exists in part to keep the Brothers out of power. The Brotherhood failed because their style of governance handed their enemies the opportunity to remove them, not because they posed an immediate threat to the leviathan power and structure of the army and its well-wishers in the judiciary and state machinery.