Middle East/North Africa #11 - now with added Theoretical Collapse

[Horza]

Syrian TV confirms that Minister of Defence and his deputy, Assad brother-in-law Assef Shawkat were killed in a bombing at national security headquarters, Al-Manar (Hezbollah TV) saying it was a suicide attack by a bodyguard and that the national security head and interior minister are also among the slain.

If that all proves accurate that's a huge blow to the regime but almost certain to trigger even further retaliation. Coupled with the other insurgent attacks around Damascus it looks like the insurgency has improved its co-ordination substantially and is receiving enough support from communities inside the capital to launch major operations.

This makes it harder for the Assads to claim that they are facing 'outside terrorists' and not a Sunni insurrection, but a sectarian civil war isn't the kind of conflict that gets resolved quickly and peacefully.

[snake]

Suicide bombings in Damascus really does show that the extremist elements are penetrating deep into Assad's centre of strength. I really wouldn't to be a Christian or Shiite in Syria right now.

[Hereward]

There's no proof it was a suicide bombing. In fact the rebels are denying it was, though they may be lying.

Anyway, describing the rebels as the extremists and implying sympathy for the non-Sunni elements is a little jarring considering the raft of anti-Sunni massacres the regime and its minority militias have carried out in recent weeks and months.

[Horza]

It isn't clear that it was a suicide bombing, but the alternatives tend to be more difficult to pull off.

After sixteen months of brutal crackdowns with no change in plans in sight the Sunni elite has started to desert the Assads, leaving us with a near-clean sectarian faultline. That's not wonderful.

[snake]

There's no proof it was a suicide bombing. In fact the rebels are denying it was, though they may be lying.

Anyway, describing the rebels as the extremists and implying sympathy for the non-Sunni elements is a little jarring considering the raft of anti-Sunni massacres the regime and its minority militias have carried out in recent weeks and months.

I never said the rebels were extremists but that there were extremists elements within the rebel movement and that should be obvious to anyone following what's happening in Syria.

And I do not take as gospel what the rebels say nor what the Western media write. A lot, if not most, of it is propaganda.

I'm not saying the Syrian regime isn't a brutal dictatorship that deserves to go but that the rebels are certainly no angels. No matter what happens retribution from the victors is gonna be harsh.

[Rane]

Bibi is now saying that Iran is behind the Bulgarian bus bombings, and that they will have a "strong response" for Iran.

Does anyone see where he'd get this idea from?

That he already wanted to bomb Iran and this gives him another excuse?

[Atreides]

Bibi is now saying that Iran is behind the Bulgarian bus bombings, and that they will have a "strong response" for Iran.

Does anyone see where he'd get this idea from?

I'm pretty sure Bibi and Admenijad will blame each other's country for everything (if Admenijad doesn't blame US). It's how they keep their support.

[snake]

Tensions in the Persian Gulf are rising. A US warship recently fired on an Indian fishing vessel. As usual both blamed the other. Things could get ugly.

Story.

[KAH]

It isn't clear that it was a suicide bombing, but the alternatives tend to be more difficult to pull off.

After sixteen months of brutal crackdowns with no change in plans in sight the Sunni elite has started to desert the Assads, leaving us with a near-clean sectarian faultline. That's not wonderful.

There are rumours that Assad has fled Damascus and is now leading the goverment war efforts from Latakia, deep in Alawite heartland.

Many of the recent massacres against Sunnis have been conducted in this region, leading to speculation that Assad and his cronies have prepared for a Plan B of rump-state North-Western Syria, wherein the Alawites would dominate the population (backed up by aforementioned sectarian-cleansing efforts, where Sunni villages are systematically targetted for elimination).

Whatever the truth of the details are, that this has become a sectarian civil war is no longer in doubt, if it ever was.

[snake]

There are rumours that Assad has fled Damascus and is now leading the goverment war efforts from Latakia, deep in Alawite heartland.

Many of the recent massacres against Sunnis have been conducted in this region, leading to speculation that Assad and his cronies have prepared for a Plan B of rump-state North-Western Syria, wherein the Alawites would dominate the population (backed up by aforementioned sectarian-cleansing efforts, where Sunni villages are systematically targetted for elimination).

Whatever the truth of the details are, that this has become a sectarian civil war is no longer in doubt, if it ever was.

I haven't read anything along those lines KAH. Could ya hook me up with a link?

[KAH]

I haven't read anything along those lines KAH. Could ya hook me up with a link?

Local newspapers, although after a little search I found this (cannot vouch for it's reliability, though).

[snake]

Pepe gives his unique take on the recent developments in Syria with his usual flair!! :D

Article.

ETA:

Donald Rumsfeld's former Chief of Staff at the Pentagon, Keith Urbahn, tweeted, "for once we should call a suicide bomber - the one that took out a major fraction of Assad's cabinet - a martyr."

Unbelievable!!!

[KAH]

I haven't read anything along those lines KAH. Could ya hook me up with a link?

Aside from the link, it just makes sense IMHO.

Of course, an Alawite rump state is a last resort, but it also makes sense to have a place to retrench when it gets too hot under your feet in Damascus. Even if the FSA managed to momentarily take control over Damascus, Aleppo and most of the non-Alawite-majority territory in the east, they'd still be in a bad way compared to Assad, as long as he held control over a significant piece of the country.

Much has been made of the deterioriating situation in Syria, but Assad's situation is much more like the one Saddam Hussein faced rather than what Muammar Gaddafi found himself in (i.e. stronger).

1. Both Bashar and Saddam has backing from a significant minority of their respective populaces. Gaddafi did not, Sirte is a relatively small town and his tribe one of the smallest in Libya. Gaddafi relied on hostages and divide-and-rule tactics only.

2. Both Bashar and Saddam employs/employed relatively strong armed forces - Gaddafi did not. Aside from a few elite units directly controlled by him or those closest to him, the great majority of the Libyan army was in a sorry state, poorly armed, trained and equipped. Some of the same tendencies could be seen in Iraq and can be seen in Syria, in that the elite units, officers and career soldiers are largely derived from the supportive minority, while the conscripts are derived from the majority of the populace.

While this may not sound like an advantage for Assad compared to Gaddafi, the sheer size difference makes Assads assets far less easily subdued (if some foreign government actually felt like throwing their hat in the ring). The Alawite part of the Syrian army counts 140 000 men - three times the size of the entire Libyan army (and probably twice again the size of the Gaddafi-loyalists). To that number you can add tens of thousands of security officers and militia.

3. Bashar has more important foreign friends than Saddam had, certainly more than Gaddafi had. Hezbollah, while not a huge source of extra manpower, give support. More importantly, Hezbollah-controlled northern parts of Lebanon offers what a Pakistani ISI officer likely would call 'strategic depth', should a bolstered FSA be able to mount a credible offensive into Alawite heartland.

Iran will supply arms, and to a limited extent also manpower to help out. Russia can supply arms and Security Council Veto power, but the biggest advantage they deliver is simply by being there. Whatever else happens, there is absolutely zero chance that a NATO aircraft will strike Tartus, as long as there is a Russian naval base there. All the rest of Syria could potentially be bombed, but not this city. Nice place for an interim headquarter when things get too hot in Damascus.

So. Assad has a far stronger position than Gaddafi, and probably also a little bit better than Hussein, based on the points above.

Given that, I think it is fairly safe to say that the FSA stands absolutely no chance against Assad alone. Gaddafi, had he been left alone by NATO, would have steamrolled the rebels in short order. The fact that Bashar has not done this already, may be a signal of weakness...but not necessarily weakness of means; it could be that he has not resolved to do the full nine yards for whatever reason (trying to placate the international community; perhaps trying to control unruly elements within his inner circle; who can tell?). The recent bombing is like to shock him into far more repressive action; or failing that, being replaced by someone more hands-on (perhaps Maher Assad, for instance).

And the international community? Even tougher sanctions seem to be beyond the UN, so any armed intervention cannot expect UN backing. Any unilateral action by the US? Not without fairly strong probability for success, and that is nowhere to be found here. The UK, France and Turkey will see it the same way; hence the only possible support would be covert arms and training, and that's not going to be enough.

The absolute best the FSA can hope for is that some suicide bomber is able to blow up Bashar and a few other key members of the Syrian government, and that they can take control over Damascus and significant parts of Syria proper in the ensuing confusion. And then immediately declare a new independent (though likely land-locked) rump eastern state and beg the west on their knees to recognize them.

Any effort to try to take all of Syria is going to end with the FSA obliterated, and the remains lugging off to Turkey to wage some low-level guerrilla war (that will amount to little and less).

[Rane]

Your analysis is good, but there's no way the US and especially Turkey would ever recognize a partition of any sort of Syria. If something like that was done, the Kurds in the east would most definitely also want their state. And the moment that they declared independence Turkey would roll in. An independent Kurdistan, no matter how small, is anathema to them. And then you end up with a huuuuuuge mess.

[KAH]

Your analysis is good, but there's no way the US and especially Turkey would ever recognize a partition of any sort of Syria. If something like that was done, the Kurds in the east would most definitely also want their state. And the moment that they declared independence Turkey would roll in. An independent Kurdistan, no matter how small, is anathema to them. And then you end up with a huuuuuuge mess.

Not necessarily.

The Kurds have been long neglected in Syria, if they see a chance of something better (but less than own independence), I think they would take it.

A rump Alawite state would be a constant threat; if the west conditioned their support on an independent state that was able to stay together and not fall into yet another repressive dictatorship (of Sunnis, Christians, Kurds or whatever the group du jour), it just might stick.

[snake]

Lovely news.

To be honest I have been reading about suicide bombings and sectarian violence for quite a while now. However, when Western media starts reporting on it then it must be getting worrisome indeed.

[KAH]

Mursi gives Tantawi the boot.

The next few days and weeks in Egypt will be interesting to follow. If army elements want to make a move against the Brotherhood, this would seem to be a moment to watch out for.

[jurble]

It probably wasn't a unilateral move by the President.

[Horza]

Given that the Army and the Judiciary want to neuter Parliament and the Presidency (for having the nerve to seat directly elected Muslim Brothers) I'm just surprised Mursi decided to hit out this early. Possibly a good moment to pick a fight with the Army as they quite embarrassingly appear to have lost control of Sinai.

[snake]

Salafists in Lybia are starting to have some fun. Wonder when, if ever, the SSC will get control of the country. Link.

Also Robert Fisk has some fairly balanced articles on the conflict in Syria which is nice. Anyone know for any more relatively unbiased site? Asia Times is okay but I'm always looking for more. The bias in reporting from Al-Jazeera, the BBC, the CBC and other major western media outlets is getting tiresome.