Middle East/North Africa #11 - now with added Theoretical Collapse

[Horza]

I would, however, like to have seen a Libya style no-fly zone to prevent the drastic civilian casualties that the pro-Assad forces inflict from the air.

1. A Libya-style no-fly zone over Syria with its arsenal of (apparently Russian-crewed) S-300 missiles exposes NATO to much more risk than the junior partners can take. Also, the logistics are a lot less accomodating, the US has yet to replace all the ordnance depeleted in the Libya campaign and France is a little distracted at the moment.

2. Assad's air strikes on civillians, horrible as they are amount to a sliver of the civillian casualties. Like the Iraqi and Yugoslav civil wars before it, most of the slaughter has been on the ground.

ETA:

National Coalition talking about talking transition with the regime. Unlikely to go anywhere but a sign they don't expect to be looting tacky dictator furniture in Damascus any time soon:

In another potentially significant development, Moaz al-Khatib, head of Syria's main opposition alliance, the National Coalition, said he could hold direct talks with "representatives of the Syrian regime" in Cairo, Tunis or Istanbul. Syrian opposition supporters were quickly divided about the sudden move. Some said it risked losing the support of armed rebel groups. Others said it might appeal to Russia, Assad's chief ally, which backs talks between the regime and the opposition.

The Syrian National Council, part of the opposition coalition, reacted angrily, saying that it rejected "any settlement with the Syrian regime or negotiation with it". Al-Khatib retorted swiftly: "We don't negotiate on the regime's survival but on its departure at the least possible cost in blood and destruction."

Still, his demands – the release of 160,000 people he said were being held in Syrian prisons, and the resumption of Syrian embassies issuing passports – seemed unlikely to be acceptable to Assad.

The president called three weeks ago for talks but insisted there would be no dialogue with opponents he called "terrorists" who had "betrayed" Syria.

[Padraig]

A Libyan style no-fly zone in Syria today means a fast collapse of Assad's forces, creating a completely failed state mostly ruled by Wahhabi militias, ethnic cleansing and genocide against all non sunni arab minorities, and a new civil war in Iraq.

There is a reason that US is not helping the opposition more, letting a a protracted civil war to go on. This just might give US enough time to figure out a solution which includes getting rid of both Assad and AQ affiliates. Of course the big problem here is keeping the war contained in Syria.

Its not that I think a no-fly zone is a particularly good idea but its not an either or situation. A slow collapse of Assad is not going to reduce the possibility of a failed state. In fact, it may only increase the possibility since bitterness and sectarism is only going to worsen as this war drags on. Similarly, the more radical elements are only going to get more powerful since the rebels will rely on them more, which is already happening.

And the chances of the US "figuring out a solution" which involves getting rid of both Assad and AQ must be practically zero. Not worth even considering as a possibility.

The current approach may be the least worst approach but there is no way to wrap it up and say its a "good" approach.

[All-for-Joffrey]

1. A Libya-style no-fly zone over Syria with its arsenal of (apparently Russian-crewed) S-300 missiles exposes NATO to much more risk than the junior partners can take. Also, the logistics are a lot less accomodating, the US has yet to replace all the ordnance depeleted in the Libya campaign and France is a little distracted at the moment.

2. Assad's air strikes on civillians, horrible as they are amount to a sliver of the civillian casualties. Like the Iraqi and Yugoslav civil wars before it, most of the slaughter has been on the ground.

Good points. I guess I jumped the gun quite a bit.

[Horza]

No worries.

Libya set unrealistically high expectations for the ease and utility of no-fly zones in these situations, when in terms of geography, logistics and weakness of air-defence it was an exception. There are no good options for Western intervention in Syria, if there were they would have been exercised long ago.

[KAH]

Head of Egyptian armed forces warns of collapse.

al-Sisi was named by Mursi as new head of armed forces, so it's not a given that this is a warning to Mursi that the army's going to take over business.

Yet the alternative explanation is hardly reassuring - that it signals support for Mursi when he opts for a bloody crackdown on the protesting parts of the populace.

[Horza]

Head of Egyptian armed forces warns of collapse.

al-Sisi was named by Mursi as new head of armed forces, so it's not a given that this is a warning to Mursi that the army's going to take over business.

Yet the alternative explanation is hardly reassuring - that it signals support for Mursi when he opts for a bloody crackdown on the protesting parts of the populace.

I doubt it's something the army wants to do, the generals didn't enjoy their time running the asylum and would much rather Morsi got on top of the situation and left them to munch on their slice of the cake. But they might not get their wish there, as the Brotherhood have if anything gotten more paranoid in the last few months and there's a clear strategy by some elements of the opposition to heighten ze kontradictions in the hope that the army will step in and press 'reset'.

[Datepalm]

A plague of locusts in Egypt. Of all things.

[snake]

Israel launches Palestinian only bus lines. Man they are making Jimmy Carter look more right every day.

The left-wing Haaretz daily reported that the ministry opened the lines on Monday, to be used by Palestinian labourers travelling between the West Bank and Israel, after Jewish settlers complained that Palestinians on mixed buses were a security risk.

Police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said all Palestinians returning to the West Bank would be searched for stolen property, describing this as a routine Israeli precaution.

[Phaing]

I would have joined in sooner, if I had seen this sooner.

Any progress?

And, the Doctor who helped us get Osama is still rotting in a Pakistani Prison, anyone trying to help that guy?

Anyone at all?

[Horza]

A plague of locusts in Egypt. Of all things.

And the locusts are followed by the thirteenth plague: dubious official statistics.

[snake]

Clashes in Benghazi on Saturday left 31 dead and has forced the resignation of the Lybian army chief. Gonna take some time to put it all back together again.

Story.

[KAH]

Surprise victory in Irani presidential elections.

Not likely to change Iran radically, considering the Guardians found him acceptable, but he's probably still going to be a step up from Ahmadinejad.

[Horza]

Cautious optimism. Don't think this changes the international picture much, but there's at least an increased possibility of decent things happening.

[Horza]

This is a random but somewhat related question.

To what extent does the Iranian populace identify with and/or care about Syria?

We're always being told in the US about how Syria is effectively an Iranian proxy or somesuch. Do they see it that way? Does the average Iranian care about Assad pro or against?

There are 70 million Iranians, so I imagine opinions vary. But I'd hazard a guess that the identification with the Syrian regime is mostly coming from the hardcore anti-US types - n.b. this probably doesn't include many ultraconservatives, who would be queasy at best about palling up with such flagrant heretics as the Allawites, who are to orthodox Twelver Shi'ism what Mormons are to Southern Baptists.

Also, people tend to forget that other countries have domestic politics, and in that arena there's more than enough to keep the average Iranian busy.

[snake]

Thanks for that.

I think a more specific way of asking what I was getting at is "In Iran, do they talk about Syria as their ally?"

I would think they would. The Iranian government and news agencies report Syria as their ally and the rest of the world does as well, so that has to have some effect on the average Iranian. I would also think a lot of Iranians are aware of the hostility towards them from neighbouring Arab states and that Syria is not one of them.

But I'm just guessing here.

[Istakhr]

I would think they would. The Iranian government and news agencies report Syria as their ally and the rest of the world does as well, so that has to have some effect on the average Iranian. I would also think a lot of Iranians are aware of the hostility towards them from neighbouring Arab states and that Syria is not one of them.

But I'm just guessing here.

Don't forget that Assad's father was the only Arab leader who sided with Iran in Iran-Iraq war.

[snake]

Don't forget that Assad's father was the only Arab leader who sided with Iran in Iran-Iraq war.

True. That had to have forged a lot of good will.

[Guest]

So if that is so, what, if anything, does the Iranian election mean for Assad?? I'm guessing that it's a combination of "bigger things to worry about at the moment" with "Ayatollah still calling most of the shots," but that's just uneducated speculation from me.

[Horza]

Those two. Rouhani might be more willing to strike some kind of deal with the US over Syria and the nuclear program but the ball isn't in his court.

[Shryke]

Rouhani's election seems like it might lead to less overt antagonism from Iran, which would be nice.