Padraig

Very good post. Some of those regions were semi autonomous regions inside the USSR republics too. So there was a formalised separation already existing. Just not enough (and in other cases, there obviously was no separation existing). It is quite complex. I do sympathise with the Armenians.

Ireland win a lot of games by very narrow margins. It’s a nice habit but the next few games are not when you want to break it. hopefully we’ll make the fixes required because we can’t keep making that many mistakes and win.

Hmm. I’m sure the majority of people there are still supportive but articles like the below are concerning. Article As I said earlier, this is not about today but about a year from now. That’s why having even 20% of the population be somewhat hostile is significant. Maybe I was idealistic but I assumed it was much close to 0. Not that I know the actual number. I just doubled the presumed far right vote from that article. But yes, what happens in the US is more important.

Fair. I can’t ever see Poland ending up being pro Russian but Poland was seen as the most fervent supporter of Ukraine previously. We’re “only” 18 months in. I fear this fatigue spreading. Next time the push back may not be as severe etc.

But if a significant portion of the Polish population is receptive to this anti Ukraine message, it may not change anything today or tomorrow, but longer term it is a worry. And this war is all about the long term. You try to take advantage of mild discontent today, it just burns deeper and you end up with serious discontent in a year. Political parties have fallen into that trap forever. it’s not just about actual weapons but having a country banging the drums for you.

Budget issues in the US and now Poland falling out with Ukraine, great news for Russia. I see the far right party in Poland is calling for gratitude, which is a little blind when Ukraine is fighting for its life. I imagine Ukraine is a bit over demanding regarding getting help, but again, fighting for its life. I suppose we can hope that after the election in Poland, things will go back to earlier times but a very bad sign given Russia was always depending on the West blinking first. And what is going on in the US has even bigger consequences. Ukraine could use a big military win to change the story line but no sign of that I think.

I was completely unaware of the Azeri Iranian friction. And Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel. And Iran’s friendliness with Armenia. None of that is expected!

Bizarre stuff. It would cause a major war? What do we think is going on at the moment? There have been dozens of attacks in Crimea already. Admittedly, it is very hard to imagine Ukraine regaining Crimea but they are perfectly entitled to try. And certainly to disrupt Russian military bases that are used to strike places in Ukraine and hit ground lines of communication that are used supply Russian troops elsewhere. Maybe there are better targets. It is easy to criticise from other countries. Doesn't change the fact that Ukraine are entitled to make the effort. Who adjudicates this law? Is Russia going to bring SpaceX to court? I can agree that Musk attracts criticism because of who he is. Some of that is inevitably undeserved. But at the same time, he controls vital infrastructure, criticism comes with the territory. I'm sure he'll be fine. That's weird too. How can we be debating this after a year of it being used in a warzone? I didn't think I was that badly informed.

It was inevitably going to cause controversy. The West is supposed to be fully behind Ukraine but that is obviously not completely true. Musk has the power to do what he did but I am not surprised that people are unhappy about it. Especially since the Ukrainian counter-offensive has struggled to get major traction. It clearly needs every little bit of help it can get. It might still work out of course but it doesn't feel like a time for optimism. Russia continues to kill civilians and spread its toxic ethos worldwide. It remains all very depressing.

There is a line about underage sex.

That movie came out close to when I was born, if that helps. I know it does have huge fans. Just not me. Some of the films I watched from the 70s were really good but I felt earlier decades were more consistent (but my sample size is the widely acclaimed movies from all those decades, so its far from random). Wow. What an ask! That could take years!

I slowed down but I did run through a few more movies from the second half of the 1970s over the last few weeks. Movies from the 1930s to the 1950s were all enjoyable (and some truly great). Movies in the 1970s are much more variable for me. More risks were taken, which is a good thing. I had seen Apocalypse Now years ago but I thought it deserved another go. I regret that idea. A true mess of a movie. There are a few great monologues and some great scenery but that doesn't make a good movie. I was bored for most of it. Similarly Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Some funny moments but while I hadn't seen the movie before, I was familiar with the funniest scenes, so seeing the movie added nothing for me. I think I prefer Monty Python in small dozes. This movie also bored me. On the positive side, I was very pleasantly surprised by Days of Heaven. I have never seen a Terrence Malick movie that I liked until this one. It still has a lot of what normally bores me (beautiful scenery) but there is some sort of plot in this film to hold it together. I liked it a lot. Less surprisingly, Taxi Driver is a very good movie (I had seen this one before). Almost two movies stitched together but its story of male isolation is as topical today as in the 1970s. And finally, I was quite unsure about this movie given all that Woody Allen is associated with but I did watch Annie Hall. It really was a delightful movie until it gets to one of the most shocking lines from a movie that I've ever heard. I would say it didn't age well but I can't believe it was ok in the first place.

Have you read "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman? Great book. This discussion reminds me of it, even though it has been years since I read it. I believe it pointed out (admittedly, obvious when you think about it) things like how people view a 1% increase in the chance of dying (or winning the lottery) far differently than a 1% increase in the chance of getting a papercut (or finding 10 cent). Mathematically you can kind of "prove" what the "correct" decision is. But people don't work based on Maths. And while people should be made aware of when they are completely illogical (e.g. if the WHO was telling people not to get a vaccine), the above kind of decision based logic is very personal and there is no real "right" answer. The real benefit to any person is that they are self-aware of their logic, so they aren't mildly fooling themselves.

When it comes down to it, I'm not sure i'd be diagnosing people with an unhealthy mindset based on a few posts on an internet board. It is certainly possible that somebody is way too focused on the risks around COVID. But I imagine most people here actually aren't. Is it overcautious for an average person to get a vaccine? You can make that argument (since the risks have diminished significantly since 2020) but given that getting a vaccine is such a low bar to cross, I don't buy the argument. Depends on how you define overcaution I suppose.

How we deal with risk is a very personal thing. And while some actions can indeed be ill-thought out (doing a risky activity in order to avoid an even riskier activity), in most cases people simply evaluate risk differently and there is no real right answer. I did get a booster in January for instance. Cases were increasing at the time and I had a rather expensive trip to the Arctic Circle planned. I didn't believe it changed my odds of getting COVID just before my trip significantly but the vaccine was free, it took me 20 minutes, the slight fear of missing out can win many arguments. One can certainly nitpick the rights and wrongs of that (and many other) decision. I would think there are more interesting things going on in the world though.