Is Stannis dead?

[LadyoftheNorth72]

Although I agree that the gift chapter was supposed to occur before the battle and before the letter, it still gave me a lot of hope that we are going to see Stannis kick some serious butt.

In the gift chapter, we see Stannis at the best he has been in a long time. He is confident, well informed, making plans but keeping them close. He has managed to put the Karstark betrayal out of business without breaking a sweat, so there is one big nasty surprise that will be awaiting the Boltons when battle is joined; not to mention that I think the Manderleys will go ahead as "scouts" or the van and join up with Stannis (or somehow let him know they intend to do so) and that will take another huge chunk out of the Bolton's forces and plans. That leaves them with the Freys, notorious for changing sides in an instant if they feel they are on the losing side. Their loyalty to the Boltons is lukewarm at best, and even though they hate the Manderlys, I don't think they hate them enough to commit suicide by continuing to fight an obviously losing battle for the Boltons. And they certainly do not give a rip about "Arya," this is the girl who was once promised to one of them. They will probably consider it ironic justice that she slipped through the fingers of another bridegroom.

I also think there is something to the idea that Stannis is planning to fake his own demise in some strategic way. But it will work to his benefit in the end.

I love it that, despite the weather and their losses and misery, Stannis is still clenching his teeth and planning strategy and has retained his wits, his wit, and his judgment. He is not cowering in a corner wondering why R'hollor has forsaken him. He is still bitterly determined to win ...this man is the Energizer Bunny of Westeros. You gotta love him for that if nothing else. And he is even managing to stay strong without Mel by his side. I think it pissed him off that people implied he lost the Blackwater because Mel wasn't with him, and he intends to demonstrate quite clearly that she is his servant, not the other way round.

Who's to say it won't happen again, and Stannis loses. He doesn't have a good track record at killing off evil bastards,lol.

That depends on how you look at it. He did lose at the Blackwater, but following a certain ceremony involving leeches, the world was shortly less three people he considered traitors. He doesn't have Mel with him now, but that doesn't mean they didn't hatch some magical scheme before he left, or that he was not getting some tutoring from her prior to leaving the Wall. I always gathered that Mel was against being left out at KL, and felt somewhat vindicated that Stannis lost without her. This time, it was her choice to stay at the Wall and she seemed quite confident in sending Stannis off; ao either she has switched sides and wants Stannis to fail, or she is fairly certain that this time he can bring things off on his own.

[arya_underfoot]

silly question- where does one find these twow spoiler chapters?

[Patchface Is AA Reborn]

http://georgerrmartin.com/if-sample.html This should link you to TWOW chapter

[Kate Poem]

His Grace lives. Ramsay is liar (and monster). I am fan of king Stannis too. /bow/

[Delerious Edd]

Stannis lives! For now. The letter is clearly a faint from Ramsay and the timeline is correct. If he had killed stannis he would have got his reek back. He assumes reek has gone to the wall.

If you want to sell a lie, wrap it up in truth.

[arya_underfoot]

http://georgerrmarti.../if-sample.html This should link you to TWOW chapter

cool thanks. i didnt realise george had started putting up twow chapters on his website. is this is the only spoiler chapter so far?

[Delerious Edd]

cool thanks. i didnt realise george had started putting up twow chapters on his website. is this is the only spoiler chapter so far?

I think so. Although he did say another will be published in adwd's paperback version. Whether that is still going to happen I don't know.

[Peach Fuzz]

Historical counterpart Richard the third no way lool

[Winter's Lady]

Nah, he's not dead! He's too badass to die anyway. That part of the letter is as fake as Snooki's boobs.

I WANT TO BELIEVE

[Petyr Middlefinger Baelish]

Only on the inside.

[Ihab]

I'm also a Stannis fan. Stannis is a fairly popular guy I think.

:agree: Oh yes. Glad to see so many fans of him

[Patchface12]

Richard III and Stannis have differences, but they have definate similarities. As Lord of Gloucester, Richard was sought out by many for justice and he was not well liked amongst the nobles. Some have speculated that because he was religious, he was "straigtlaced and priggish."

Richard is accused of ordering his nephews killed in the Tower of London and poisoning his wife. Stannis did, however indirectly, kill Renly.

The way I heard it, Tyrion is Shakespeare's Richard III (at least the wrongful perception of him is) while Stannis is the historical figure, however loosely in either case.

I'm a fan of Stannis too (despite him killing off Renly), and I felt a knot in my stomach when I read Ramsay's letter. Martin's killed off Ned and Robb. I wouldn't be surprised if Stannis was dead too.

Much as I want to believe Ramsay is lying, what is the point of sending the letter if its not true? (much as I'd love that to be the case)

[Peach Fuzz]

Richard III and Stannis have differences, but they have definate similarities. As Lord of Gloucester, Richard was sought out by many for justice and he was not well liked amongst the nobles. Some have speculated that because he was religious, he was "straigtlaced and priggish."

Richard is accused of ordering his nephews killed in the Tower of London and poisoning his wife. Stannis did, however indirectly, kill Renly.

The way I heard it, Tyrion is Shakespeare's Richard III (at least the wrongful perception of him is) while Stannis is the historical figure, however loosely in either case.

I'm a fan of Stannis too (despite him killing off Renly), and I felt a knot in my stomach when I read Ramsay's letter. Martin's killed off Ned and Robb. I wouldn't be surprised if Stannis was dead too.

Much as I want to believe Ramsay is lying, what is the point of sending the letter if its not true? (much as I'd love that to be the case)

Richard the third ordered the murders of his nephews who were the rightfull heirs to the throne . Stannis is a just man if Joffrey and tommen were Roberts trueborn children he would never have tried claiming the crown for himself. Renly was a usurper he deserved to die in my opinion

[CC-Kingmaker]

I think Jon honestly has a higher chance of being dead than Stannis. Because if he is AA (Unlikely), something ridiculous would happen. Also, the Boltons are waiting on his move, and the one that matters is important. Also, Mance Rayder will play double agent before submitting to his own death. Finally, teh comment that there was no body part or blood in the letter seals it to me that Rmasay did not write the letter, meaning the only onestupid enough to kill his father and bypass a carefully lain plan is dead. So I agree with whoever claimed that manderly would undo the Freys and side with Stannis and infiltrate in silence, taking Winterfell by surprise.

[Lord Damian]

I hope Stannis lives longer but even he conceded that he may die and if so, plans to fight for his daughter through the iron bank's financing is to move ahead. Also, since the Golden Company is already occupied, we may see Tyrion come back with the Second Sons hired to get Shireen on the throne. Could you see that, Shireen married to Tyrion on the Iron Throne. Hee, Hee. It could happen, who would have thought after the first two novels, Tyriion would wed but not bed Sansa?

[The Swaggering Bravo]

I think the pink letter is either a deliberate bluff or an ignorant one.

Stannis telling Justin Massey that he might hear news of Stannis' death seems to me to mean that Stannis is planning on faking his death or allowing people to believe that he's dead.

The fact that Stannis' plan and strategy is cloaked in secrecy seems to mean to me that it just might work. We see a lot of very good strategies laid out that either end in disaster (Stannis' Blackwater plan) or are prevented from happening (Robb's plan to take Moat Cailin from the south). Martin is holding Stannis' ideas close to the chest and I think that might mean that this is one plan that will work.

I anticipate that Stannis will lure the heavy Bolton calvary out onto ice and let them drown under their own weight.

And remember that Bolton doesn't have that many solid allies inside Winterfell — his own men, the Freys (who suck at handling the cold) and possibly Lady Dustin's people. The Umbers, Manderlys and probably the Cerwyns (especially when/if they learn how their kinsman was killed by Ramsay) will break for Stannis when they can.

And Aenys Frey at least is apparently already dead.

ETA: The Gift Chapter isn't a good piece of evidence. I'm pretty sure it takes place before Jon receives the letter, even though Martin moved the material to a later book (probably to keep the Stannis cliffhanger intact?).

I agree, Stannis has the Northmen tribes who are professionals at dealing with the winter cold and snows too, but this will be a very entertaining battle. Think about it, Stannis and Roose are two of the most tactical commanders in Westeros, perhaps the best since Tywin died, maybe before. Stannis will have to listen to his northern allies though, he can't make the mistake of thinking of them the same way he thought of his allies from the Reach. They know the land as well as Roose, if not better. Stannis was bogged down by the storm and he lost a lot of men and horses, but Roose's host is holding together very loosely. The Northmen will join Stannis if they can, I believe, and the jaw grinding bastard will have more than a few tricks up his sleeve before the end, if this will be his end.

[The Swaggering Bravo]

Much as I want to believe Ramsay is lying, what is the point of sending the letter if its not true? (much as I'd love that to be the case)

To intimidate Jon into acting rashly and actually getting his hostages back.

[the Remarkable Other]

I think after the Frey force fell through the ice, since the Manderly force was coming up behind the Frey force, Lord Manderly saw his chance and pushed them into the lake. Wyman than hatched a plan with Stannis.

Wyman arrives at Winterfell saying Stannis is dead with Stannis's glowing sword as proof of his demise. That would explain Ramsay's letter saying he had Stannis's sword. Roose Bolton, at ease, lets his guard down and he and his allies have a celebration. That night while Roose and his allies are asleep, Stannis's forces descend on Winterfell with Manderly's men opening the gates and Stannis and his men take Roose unawares.

The problem I see with this is that Stannis doesn't trust the Manderlys because he thinks they killed Davos and there is little they could do to prove otherwise. Unless Davos appears with Rickon in tow. Which I hope he does, but is rather unlikely. Even if Stannis is convinced because the Manderlys turn cloak during the battle and attack the Freys, another problem is that the Boltons don't trust them either. Manderly's men returning to Winterfell with Fakebringer, claiming that Stannis is dead along with all of the Freys, well, it doesn't sound so plausible. Nothing short of Stannis's head would convince Roose that the Manderlys are loyal. Or a testimony of the surviving Freys.

Hopefully the letter is just an attempt from Ramsay to gain leverage against Stannis or an outright lie from someone else (intent to push Jon over the edge maybe?).

Btw, I'm also a Stannis fan and I think he will make it somehow, probably defeating the Boltons in the process.

[Jamie Lannister]

It could go either way. Underestimating Ramsay might be his downfall: it wouldn't be the first time the Bastard of Bolton prevailed despite seemingly insurmountable odds. I doubt Roose would buy anything Manderly says, either.

[Patchface12]

What it still comes down to are the Mormonts and the Glovers. When Robb sent Galbart and Maege ahead, he didn't know the Freys were his enemies and they would have had to sail through lands sworn to the Freys to get to the Neck. Unfortunately, its very possible that they were caught. And if they weren't told by Ravens, Arnolf brought Roose Bolton's Maester with him, who could have informed them of this.

I'm not sure Northmen would fall for a frozen lake trap on their own turf, though its not say Stannis couldn't have some other great tactics to take the enemy by surprise and destroy them.

But none of those tactics would matter if Stannis were betrayed from within.