Ramsay's Letter to John

[Jabronius Maximus]

I think Ramsay wrote the letter, after having captured Mance and gleaned all the info from him. But he lied about Stannis, I think he's lying about most of the contents of the letter. The fact that its not properly sealed might indicate it was done in a desperate hurry. Maybe after killing him, Stannis finds the letter, and after reading it sends it off to Jon.

Initially I had a problem with Stannis being involved in this web, because he is a lawful man and wouldn't goad someone into breaking their vows. But there is a precedence: Stannis was willing to legitimize Jon and have him leave the NW. I guess the letter will end up being a more effective method to get Jon to leave the wall.

[Bawn]

Bloodraven as a means to manipulate Jon and force his "destiny". He is one of the few that could posess the relevant information.

[MasterJack]

If Manderly had a talk with Mance, and the GNC is true... he might want Jon at WF and not a the Wall.

[Dagon Greyjoy]

I think it's pretty much clear it was sent by Mance when Ramsay sallied forth against Stannis: Ramsay has his Bolton seal, that's why it's not sealed. Mance has observed both Jon and Ramsay enough to know them well.

What if Mance backstabbed his way into seizing Winterfell when Ramsay sallied to meet Stannis? Maybe the Bastard of Bolton won the battle but is trapped outside his castle in the middle of winter. Mance would be holding it with an absolute skeleton crew. If Jon marches with wildlings and crushes Ramsay against the gates of Winterfell, suddenly there's a power vacuum in the North that either or both of them are capable of filling.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The letter is a brilliant device because the more you think about it, the more there is to think about. It's utterly infuriating!

Here are some scenarios I've thrown around, some less plausible than others.

1. Ramsay is the writer and everything in it is true and Ramsay's just PO'd that Jon got involved.

2. Ramsay is the writer but Stannis has faked his death, so the letter's contents aren't accurate.

3. Ramsay is the writer and the Boltons have discovered that Jon is Robb's heir, and that's their motivation to get him to Winterfell, to kill him.

4. Same motivation as #3, with Stannis as the writer and not Ramsay.

5. Night's Watch brothers wrote it to goad Jon into breaking his vows and giving them an excuse to assassinate him. This one doesn't work because they'd lack the information.

6. Melisandre wrote it, hoping to goad Jon's men into hurting him and forcing the Azor Ahai prophecy.

7. Mance wrote the letter in an effort to get Selyse and Shireen as hostages against Stannis and get Val and his son (he thinks) away from the Wall.

8. The northern lords (read: Manderly, Umber, Mormont, etc.) wrote it, after the Boltons are dead but without Stannis' knowledge, to get Jon to come to Wintefell in order to crown him.

Like Jem laid out, whoever wrote it has to have a pretty specific list of knowledge, knowing about stuff that happened on the Wall but also stuff happening in Winterfell. Assuming that Mance and Theon can be used to corroborate or fill in blanks, I'd say that Ramsay (or Roose, I suppose), Stannis, Mance or a northern lord are the only immediately plausible authors.

[Jabronius Maximus]

^Thanks for a comprehensive list AM, and I highly doubt everything in the letter is true. The last bit of wanting the bride, wanting his Reek just, I dunno, reeks of desperation. Other lords probably figured out somehow that 'Arya' is fake, and Ramsay is on the verge of losing the battle.

I'm not so sure that the good northern lords are involved in this, simply because of the nature of the letter. If indeed the Northern Lords have already won and got wind of Robb's will (and have written the pink letter or at least had access to it), what if TGN has already been set in motion? By this I mean, what if they've already done away with Stannis and want Jon to come to Winterfell to crown him? That would really explain 'the false king bit' - the north won't bow to anyone from the south. The one thing that just doesn't fit is that Manderly seems to be a very pragmatic man with his planning. He continues to bow to the Lannisters while quietly making arrangements for his son's return and Rickon's smuggling. Such a cautious man wouldn't agree to send out such a risky letter that could rile up a lot of people. If it was part of TGN then it clearly backfired - Jon is now hurt. It just doesn't seem consistent with what the northern lords are doing right now. That's why I'd rule out Manderly & co.

I think there are 2 possible authors for the letter - Ramsay or Mance. Ramsay seems to require the least amount of explanation, and the language is very consistent with his character. Now the accuracy of the contents is another matter entirely, and it's even possible that Ramsay is dead, and someone has sent the letter to bait Jon, knowing the situation at the wall. If Ramsay's the author, I think the sender has 3 (safe) possibilities - Ramsay, Stannis or Mance. Ramsay or Stannis have obvious motivations to get Jon off the wall, but I'm not sure why Mance would send it or write it. Bottom line is I think it's almost certain that Ramsay wrote it. The accuracy of the contents, as well as who sent it remains to be seen.

On the crackpot side, what if the original letter described the actual situation? Stannis won, Ramsay is dead, we found Robb's will, come to Winterfell, etc. but then it got to Mel before Jon. Mel changed all the contents of it, and was fully aware of the reprecussions - I always thought it was suspicious how she was reminding Jon to keep Ghost by his side. She could have known her plan was in motion. She finally realizes Jon is AA, hence using only 'false king' for Stannis, probably out of frustration for following Stannis that long. And with Mel at the Wall, plus whatever she sees in her fires, it's likely she knows as much as anyone about the goings on in the North. So she changes the letter, which drives the NW mutiny, and now Jon is ready for whatever magic she's about to pull. Of course this is highly speculative, but would be devious and surprising if it came to pass.

[bemused]

I'd also add....

9. Stannis wrote it as a warning that Ramsay is heading toward the wall after "Arya". He doesn't know of Robb's will , and may not have entered WFyet.

10. Any of Apple's "plausible candidates", with interception , and perhaps some additions from Bowen and conspirators ( possibly including Alliser Thorne. )

[MasterJack]

I'd also add....

9. Stannis wrote it as a warning that Ramsay is heading toward the wall after "Arya". He doesn't know of Robb's will , and may not have entered WFyet.

10. Any of Apple's "plausible candidates", with interception , and perhaps some additions from Bowen and conspirators ( possibly including Alliser Thorne. )

about 9, if Ramsay is heading toward the wall after "Arya", stannis just had to send a letter that says: Hey, Ramsay is heading toward the wall after "Arya". No need for all this provokation and false identity :D

[l3ol3o]

Bloodraven as a means to manipulate Jon and force his "destiny". He is one of the few that could posess the relevant information.

I agree. I don't think Mel knows Jon is AA yet. She will soon but not yet. ATM she still thinks it's Stannis. No one else really makes sense expect for Bloodraven or maybe even Bran somehow.

[bemused]

about 9, if Ramsay is heading toward the wall after "Arya", stannis just had to send a letter that says: Hey, Ramsay is heading toward the wall after "Arya". No need for all this provokation and false identity :D

The Theon TWoW chapter shows us how and why ( by implication). Actually I shouldn't have said may not have entered WF, because i don't think he had( It was late , and I was tired )...It would mean the letter was sent from the field using one of the ravens brought by Karstark... These are "destination WF" ravens , but we have reason to suspect they can and are being controlled by BR/Bran ..( and we even know how Br/Bran got to the camp , since we saw ,in Asha's last chapter , a wild raven pecking at one of the corpses of the sacrificed men. So it would be an easy transfer to the caged ravens from there )

We've yet to see the trip to the weirwood ( which the ravens are clamoring for ) , which I feel confident that we can expect. If something happens at the tree to convince Stannis that those ravens could possibly fly to CB , I definitely think he'd risk it.... But he wouldn't want to blow his battle plan, so in case he's wrong , or in case the raven is brought down by Bolton men , he would have to disguise his authorship ,since he's planning to fake his own death. The letter would have to get important information to Jon and simultaneously mislead Roose, if he should manage to intercept it.

As far as Stannis knows , Jon would be able to verify that he was still alive with Mel. He doesn't know that she hasn't been able to see him in her flames.

When Roose ordered the Freys and WH men sent out Theon hadn't yet escaped. Now they know they've lost "Arya" and Reek, I think Theon is right - Ramsay will be coming as well, perhaps in mop-up position ( they would still want the Frey and Manderly forces to take the brunt of the action ). Ramsay hasn't met Stannis. Everyone knows about Stannis' sword. We've already seen fake heads displayed..Davos' , and Ramsay himself faked Bran's and Rickon's ( it would be sweet to see him taken in by his own ploy ;) ) If he thought Stannis was dead and "Arya" and Reek were headed for the wall , there's no doubt in my mind he would take out after them immediately, without asking a "by your leave " from Roose.

ETA; The more you think about it the more possibilities you see. One of the things that has bothered me most is the claim of a 7 day battle , which is a preposterous claim. But thinking about it ... Stannis is 3 days from WF, and Tycho has traveled from WF to Stannis ( even if a small party could make it in less than 3 days, he says it took them some time to find Stannis ) ... Stannis plans to send them on the next morning.... Roose's forces couldn't have been right on their heels , otherwise they probably would have been taken , or those forces would have made it to Stannis' camp.. Roose will need a bit of time to reorganize - perhaps at a day or two. He knows Stannis isn't going anywhere , and he'd want to piece together what just happened ( capture Mance and spearwives, if possible e.g. ) , then formulate a new order of battle - maybe they'd have to leave by another gate and take a longer route .

7 days could be a close approximation of either how long "Arya" has been on her way, or how long Ramsay has been on his.

[Jon Snows Ghost]

Does anyone think that it might be possible that the letter was written by a crow. Maybe Allister Thorne out of revenge for Janos Slynt. Thorne knew how to get under Jon's skin and truly hated him, especially after he became Lord Commander.

Not impossible but I don't think so.....Only Mel and Jon knew about Mance being disguised as Rattleshirt

[mrlukeduke]

A Clash of Kings, Chapter 66, Theon

Take my horse, he’s swifter, and here, wear the ring my father gave me, so they’ll know you came from me. He’d learned better than to question me.

Ramsay "lost" the ring his father gave him after swapping clothes with Reek, a ring which likely he would have used for, say, sealing the wax on parchments. Like so: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seal_%28emblem%29#Signet_rings

[Stormkith]

Ramsay wrote the letter. Simple as that. He caught Mance and the spearwives, but Theon and "Arya" got away. He tortured the spearwives and/or Mance, got all the information he needed, and sent the letter to Jon. The "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell" line is just his own self-aggrandizing, delusional line of BS.

Melisandre would NEVER write that letter; she doesn't think that Jon is AAR, nor would she undermine Stannis by claiming he had been defeated.

[Guest]

Allister's a absolute jerk, but he's an honorable jerk. I really don't think he'd do that. I think it's more likely the BOB wrote it himself and just lied about Stannis.

[Jacob17]

Ramsay would not know much of the things in the letter. It was Mellisandre or she had someone else write it to mobilize Jon or get him almost killed so she can save him in the next book

Ramsey would know everything going on at Castle Black because he captured Mance and the girls. A naked man has few secrets, a flayed man has none.

My best guess is that Ramsey wrote that letter and that most of what he wrote, if not everything, was true.

[Maester2chainz]

Ramsay sent the letter because he gave the "Reek" treatment to Mance :crying:

[Night'sQueen]

There is only one person that knows all this while not knowing the babies had been swapped. Mance Rayder himself. Melisandre could also possibly know that Ramsay's bride and Reek escaped depending on what she's seen in her flames, making her another possible contender. And it's obvious both of them are in on something together.

I am almost positive that either Mance or one of the washerwomen sent the letter. I agree with everything in thecommodore's post above, but it's so large I don't feel like quoting it.

Of course, it's still possible that Mance spilled the information to Ramsay after a few rounds of flaying, and that it was then used as a bluffing tool in the pink letter.

I agree. I think it has to be Mance.

- Mance has all the info (including knowledge of "Reek" through the spearwives).

- The tone of the letter sounds more like Mance (repeated use of the word bastard and use of the term "black crows").

- Ramsay would have used a real seal. If he has the pink wax why not the seal?

- Ramsay would have included some skin as his calling card.

Also, does anyone really believe Ramsay Bolton could break Mance? Even with flaying? Mance is far smarter and tougher than the likes of Ramsay Bolton.

On that note, however, if Mance was captured (or let himself be captured) perhaps he fed all that info to Ramsay and manipulated him into sending the letter. So, then even if Ramsay wrote the letter, I think Mance was behind it.

Lastly, I don't find any of the motives that I have seen proposed for anyone (Mel, Stannis, Ramsay, etc) for luring Jon to Winterfell to be that compelling.

[victim]

Also, does anyone really believe Ramsay Bolton could break Mance? Even with flaying? Mance is far smarter and tougher than the likes of Ramsay Bolton.

On that note, however, if Mance was captured (or let himself be captured) perhaps he fed all that info to Ramsay and manipulated him into sending the letter. So, then even if Ramsay wrote the letter, I think Mance was behind it.

I concur. Mance is better than Ramsey. He'll beat Ramsey's torture, because he can endure it.

[Neilos]

I still think that Stannis and the Manderlys encountered each other, came to an accord and Stannis gave Lightbringer to Manderly, so he could take it to Ramsay, claim victory over Stannis and then Stannis and Manderly would be in a position to take Winterfell by surprise. The letter is written by Ramsay in the period between when Manderly comes back with Lightbringer, and when Stannis attacks.

This... makes a lot of sense to me.

I seem to remember that the Boltons made a point of having the other Lords' troops, the Manderlys and others, ride out to battle first. The intention was for the others to bear the brunt of the losses, since Roose already suspected Manderly.

I imagine what happened could have been this; that the above idea backfired, allowing Manderly to return to Winterfell and claim a false victory, as JayDubya said.

From the style of the letter alone, I believe it to be written by Ramsay, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's true. He simply believes Stannis defeated.

As for Mance and the Spearwives, though... I don't know.

[Stormkith]

Also, does anyone really believe Ramsay Bolton could break Mance? Even with flaying? Mance is far smarter and tougher than the likes of Ramsay Bolton.

Ramsay doesn't have to break Mance. There were six spearwives with him, all of whom could give the Bastard of Bolton the info he needed. And I doubt all of them were as tough as Mance.