Ramsay's Letter to John

[Stannis the Wight]

Someone proposed the theory that Stannis actually wrote the letter. There were some clues in the Theon WOW chapter.

Example: When Stannis orders Justin Massey to go to Braavos to hire sellswords he warns him that he may hear news about Stannis' death, also I believe it was when Stannis was talking with Theon, he mentioned something about knowing that Ramsay will rush out to meet him in battle because "he wants his wife, he wants his reek" which is in the pink letter. Stannis also knew about Mance, he isn't blind.

My only problem with this is why wouldn't Stannis just send Jon a direct letter instead of writing it as coming from Ramsay? Just to further spur on Lord Snow and make him react emotionally because he thought Jon wouldn't come at his command, being in the NW and all.

[WardenOfTheNorth]

Does anyone think that it might be possible that the letter was written by a crow. Maybe Allister Thorne out of revenge for Janos Slynt. Thorne knew how to get under Jon's skin and truly hated him, especially after he became Lord Commander.

Never thought of that, but it is a good theory.

[The guy from the Vale]

Why do people not think Ramsey wrote the letter...? Like i guess it makes sense that Mance did if we are under the assumption that Ramsey didn't but what puts us there in the first place?

For me, there's a number of reasons. First of all, the letter has none of the signs of a Ramsay letter (spiky letters, blood as ink, skin from a flayed victim... all curiously absent). Also, the letter isn't sealed, only closed with pink wax (smear instead of hard button -> no Bolton seal used). Then there's information about the Wall that Ramsay can't have and won't get by torturing anyone except if he knows what he's asking for in the first place (Val and the baby, most glaringly). Add tot that the use of Wildling terms like "crow", which we have never heard south of the Wall, and it becomes unlikely that Ramsay himself wrote the letter.

[jmifs]

Seems pretty clear that he captured Mance, since he was left behind during Theon's escape and tortured him for as much info as possible. The fact that he asks for Reek and "Arya" back clearly shows that he did not actually come upon Stannis' army and therefore lied about that part. The letter was definitely written by Ramsay.

[The guy from the Vale]

Welcome to the boards.

What indications do you have that it was Ramsay who wrote that letter? I mean, apart from the fact that it says Ramsay underneath, but that doesn't mean much to be honest - everybody could write that name under a letter.

[Faint]

Seems pretty clear that he captured Mance, since he was left behind during Theon's escape and tortured him for as much info as possible. The fact that he asks for Reek and "Arya" back clearly shows that he did not actually come upon Stannis' army and therefore lied about that part. The letter was definitely written by Ramsay.

There is the possibility that he simply tortured the information out of one of the spearwives. One of them was definitely captured. I don't know if it follows that Mance was captured as well. He is pretty resourceful and Winterfell is a big castle.

[Irelands Gemstone]

Supposedly sent by Ramsay to Jon Snow. It influenced Jon Snow to try and turn the Nights Watch into an army. It told Jon that Stannis had died.

Stannis told Justin Massay to recruit sellswords, even if he heard that Stannis had died.

This leads me to believe that Stannis won the battle of Winterfell, then wrote the letter himself.

Stannis wanted Jon to use the nights watch to help him win the Iron Throne.

If Jon comes South with the Watch, Stannis needs only say that Ramsay sent the letter, lying, and Stannis is alive and well, Jon cannot exactly undo turning the Watch into an army, he will be forced to march with Stannis.

Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. Stannis unknowingly got Jon Snow killed.

[Ser Greg of House House]

Evidence towards Mance being the author is pretty strong, but not definitive. We'll have to wait.

[The Drunkard]

What stops Jon from marching the NW back to the Wall again?

This theory makes more sense if the letter was sent prior to Stannis' victory over Ramsay.

[Ser Greg of House House]

If we're going to go with masterplans, it would be cool if it were a northern conspirator who wants to crown Jon King in the North once he reaches Winterfell :)

It was probably Mance, though.

ps. but... but... What if Mance joined the Northern conspiracy? After all King Jon would welcome wildlings in his kingdom!

[First of My Name]

Lying and tricking people into helping him and breaking their vows doesn't sound like Stannis. And surely he could guess that this plan wouldn't go down smoothly and most likely fail?

[Lord Freypie]

I don't have any more letter related elements, but I more and more believe Ramsay wrote the letter and content is true for book dynamic reasons :

A ) I think Stannis is really dead

There are already too much false deaths, making lots people start to mock asoiaf for that, I'm sure Martin is conscious adding more wouldn't be good for him.

- like almost every one I don't believe he really killed Jon

- so I don't see Martin having in addition to Jon a second key character being falsely said dead in the north at the end of the same book

- consequence, if Stannis is said dead he has good chances to really be dead

B ) I don't think Stannis will win the battle of Ice.

- I don't see Martin having both the battle of Ice and the battle of Fire won by the forces of "good" (the ones most readers support), I'd rather see them be symetric than parallel, so one need to be lost, and I don't imagine Yunkai winning at Mereen so it must be the battle of Ice

-Stannis look in good situation (according to the sample chapter) but also over-confident which is never a good sign (last time I've seen someone as overconfident it was his admiral for the Blackwater)

-He may have advantages in the beggining (the frozen lake traps, Manderly changing side), but if the battle really "last 7 days" the state of his starving troops will start to matter more than any advantage he may have had, and the Bolton may win

-Early Stannis advantage will allow Martin to write the battle of Ice like Oberyn-The Mountain duel, making the reader sure that one side is winning only to make the end more brutal for the reader

-Martin likes surprises but strangely published a sample TWOW chapter making people forget Stannis army state and believe he can win, so I think the surprise may not be that he will win

-After all the false things in the previous books (false Davos death annonced in a letter etc) nothing can surprise more than something said in a suspect letter really happening. He needs something like that to be able to lure the reader again with falsities.

C ) Stannis losing bring more to the story than Stannis winning

- It closes the war of 5 kings / Baratheon parenthesis, and allow to advance to the dance of the dragons, instead having this one more pretender reconquering the realm in addition to Dany arriving (hopefully one day), Aegon, and the Starks he can only make a force again to avenge them in some way

- Stannis being out of the equation will decide the northern conspiracy to contact Jon

- It (and the events happening at the wall) will probably decide Jon to assume his position of king of the north by Robb's will, gathering what remain of Stannis supporters with the northmen and wildlings

- It frees Mellissandre from her belief in Stannis and allows her to see Jon as AAR

- The super vilains Bolton he spent the last book developping will still have to be defeated, and by Jon, a Stark the readers are attached to since the beginning, rather than by a stranger ; and it's even more important if they have something even darker in them (a link with the others) like some suspect, that may finally allow the two main storylines to be combined (game of thrones and others war)

D) Other parts of the letters seems to concord with Asha probable plan

- I see why Ramsay search Reek : Asha organized Theon escape and is probably leading to the Iron Isles to organize a new council of captains (like hinted in her first chapter of ADWD), eventually with the help of the Braavosi banker who may find an interest in helping the future Iron Queen (is Euron popular in Braavos ? I doubt so)

- They are likely to have taken Jeyne with them (always good to have a Stark, and Asha still believe her to be Arya) if Stannis hasn't sent her to the wall before the battle

[Jacob Feybrad]

Isn't the letter sent before the battle ensues? I mean, it would be quite chaotic having some events of WoW BEFORE some of the events in DwD.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Edit: why do posts always end up in the wrong place? Is it just me? o_0

Edit 2: threads probably got merged. :P

[Corvo Attano]

If Stannis won the battle, he doesn't need Jon's help anymore. if he lost, he's dead.

[Irelands Gemstone]

He could have won with heavy casualties, needing more men - Stannis will do almost anything in times of desperation, during the siege of storms end he forbade the firing of traitors from catapults, because he did not discount the possibility they would need to eat them... telling one lie to get any wildlings and black brothers in castle black to join his cause does not seem so out of character for him with this in mind.

[The Real Targaryen]

With all the information in the letter, Ramsay must've written it. A spearwife gave up all the information while being flayed so Ramsay knows Val and Mance and all that stuff. However, he lied about beating Stannis' army. Stannis has Reek/Theon tied up. If a battle were to have happened and Stannis died, Theon would've been there, still tied up, when Ramsay shows up. Ramsay lied hoping Jon would ride south to Winterfell with Selyse and the girl, forget her name, with the intention of bending the knee. Then Ramsay can tell Stannis to surrender or his family dies and no battle is needed.

[three-eyed monkey]

Whoever wrote the letter wants to bring Jon down on Winterfell in force, that is the sole purpose of the letter IMO, and it would have worked had the NW defenders not intervened.

For this reason alone I don't think it is Ramsay. I just can't believe that upon losing his bride/valuable hostage/the basis of his claim to Winterfell, a girl accompanied by a flayed and broken-minded cripple whom btw Jon Snow would probably behead on sight, in a snow storm, without provisions, days from the wall, that he would just assumes they made it to the Castle Black, and faster than a raven at that. There's a good chance they might not make it at all. So why would he advertise that he has lost her and at the same time invite an attack? Sorry, just can't see it being Ramsay unless he has been decieved by Manderly and Stannis.

If Mance managed to evade capture and is hiding out somewhere in Winterfell then it might be his way of calling in the cavalry, but I question one thing. While it is plausible that he could gain access to ravens, would he know which one is trained for Castle Black? That might be a small detail but GRRM is good with the fine points.

Still, Mance was my favourite until I read Theon's TWoW chapter, but now my money is on Stannis. I don't buy the "not in his character" argument. He killed Renly by foul means. Forging a letter to bring Jon down on Winterfell is hardly worse.

[Ribupr]

Stannis definitely wrote the letter....haha he is such a BOSS

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Does anyone think that it might be possible that the letter was written by a crow. Maybe Allister Thorne out of revenge for Janos Slynt. Thorne knew how to get under Jon's skin and truly hated him, especially after he became Lord Commander.

Very possible I admit but to what end would a crow do this? To annoy Jon for revenge? It seems like a lame thing to do.