Ramsay's Letter to John

[leo0274]

in which of the books this letter appears?

[dollybird]

in which of the books this letter appears?

A dance with dragons. Someone very kindly posted the letter at the start of this thread if you'd like to read it again.

[dollybird]

All in all it would be Stannis or Mance, with Ramsay a decent third. The real question is, what did the person writing the letter hope Jonny would do, and what was the goal of getting him to do what they wanted him to do?

As I already said, I think the person writing the letter hoped to provoke Jon, make him angry enough to leave the wall and bring a host with him. Why would they want him to do that? What would Mance or Ramsey possibly hope to gain from getting Jon to leave the wall and march to Winterfell?? To me, the person with the most to gain and who is desperate and in such dire need of assistance and reinforcements is Stannis.

If it turns out that anyone other than Stannis wrote that letter, I'll eat the entire ADWD book. Iv read all the posts and thought about all of them and I am even more convinced now that it was Stannis. Stannis might be honorable and dutiful but he has shown himself to be pretty ruthless, after all, he sanctioned the killing of his brother Renly by means of magic!! Not an honorable death for his brother and very desperate decision by Stannis. I think that letter was another act of desperation.

[Jayaris]

As I already said, I think the person writing the letter hoped to provoke Jon, make him angry enough to leave the wall and bring a host with him. Why would they want him to do that? What would Mance or Ramsey possibly hope to gain from getting Jon to leave the wall and march to Winterfell?? To me, the person with the most to gain and who is desperate and in such dire need of assistance and reinforcements is Stannis.

Well for Mance, at the wall he is a glorified prisoner.

South of the wall with a Wildling army in play he has the option to rally them to his side.

[leo0274]

I didn't read a dance with dragons, it's not out in Brazil yet

[NoMouseville]

I, personally, think that it is Mance trying to retrieve his son from the hands of the Nights Watch/ Stannis.

That or it's Ramsay and he's bluffing... but if that's the case and he does indeed have Mance... where's the skin?

[Teal'c]

The only person I can see having all the information required to write the letter would be Mance Rayder. Everybody else would lack some intel either from Winterfell or from the Wall.

I also thought about Mance in the first place, but why would he do it?

Mance knows that the whole power of wildlings is already south of the Wall. This letter would bring Jon with his army of wildlings to Winterfell where Mance will easily take the command and occupy the North. Mance wants to betray Jon the same way he did it and finally play the Game of Thrones.

After rereading ASOS and noticing how many times Mance addresses Jon as 'Bastard,' I'm about 75% sure it's Mance. It's even possible that Mance wanted Jon to know it was him, using 'bastard' as some kind of code word.

I haven't yet pored over this scenario enough to speculate as to Mance's true motive here.. except that he is quite the enigma and his dynamic with Jon is a complex one. Perhaps he had some prior arrangement with some of the wildlngs at the Wall? He wants reinforcements to take Winterfell?

Mance was at the wall for some time, and a smart guy.. I expect sending a raven would not have been a problem for him.

I also suspect Mance wrote the letter. I'm worried he is going to betray Jon, although I also think it is possible Mance is manipuating Jon to participate in some plan to defeat the Others that he felt Jon would not just simply agree with when asked straight out. No clue what the plan would be, however, but Mance still feels to me like he is on the Light side of the Force.

[MikeDC]

Mance's motivation for writing the letter is clear; his goal was to get his people to a safe haven south of the wall. Winter fell is a safe haven, but the wildlings all think Mance is dead. Burned by Stannis and the Jon-led crows. So he can't very well send a letter to the wildlings themselves. Jon and/or Mel would simply rip it up the moment it arrived. He had to send something that would either get Jon to bring them south, or reveal that Jon is a big fat liar and Mance is alive. Mission accomplished on that front- it seems obvious to me that the reveal of Mance being alive (foolishly read out loud by Jon!) is a major factor that led Marsh and the rest to assassinate Jon.

So I think it's almost certainly Mance. He's got the most consistent knowledge, motivation, and cleverness to do it.

Onee dark horse candidate I'd throw out is Asha. She was the recipient of a letter from Ramsay (and other Northern Lords). She would know of all the facts, or be able to surmise them from talking to Theon and Stannis. And she's been given relatively free reign of Stannis camp, so she would have opportunity. Her motive is simply to create enough chaos to allow her to escape, or possibly gain some control over her fate. Asia stands, she has little with Stannis and Theon appears headed for certain death. soi could see her doing it even though my money is still on Mance

[ishmael]

Mance is the only one that knows about each of the people/situations in the letter. Mel only lacks knowledge of Reek, but if the arrival of Reek and "Arya" occurs prior to Jon's last chapter, it is possible Stannis sent word to her. As we don't know the times that specific, her having the info is possible, but it questionable how likely. Ramsay could have the information, but he also would have to ask the right questions to get the fake burning info or about Val or about the baby. That is a lot of varied info to get in a short time. I'm not convinced on who wrote it, but some have a lot more of that info than others. Jon also comments that he knows some of it is true, but some of it is a lie. What he knows and how is the question I have.

[Risha]

I am certain that it was Theon and Mance that cooked up the letter and sent it to Jon. Consider this very tiny clue in the Theon I chapter from TWoW:

The king plucked a parchment off the table and squinted over it. A letter, Theon knew. Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. I know what that says, he thought, giggling.

Ta-da! Mance and Theon sent it before Theon escaped so that Jon would come south to shore up Stannis, since all Mance and Theon knew of Stannis was that he was starving to death three days ride from Winterfell.

[danm_999]

What would Mance or Ramsey possibly hope to gain from getting Jon to leave the wall and march to Winterfell?? T

Because Ramsay was worried Jon was going to say the magic words when he saw Ramsay's bride; "this is not Arya Stark".

So, he had to make Jon less credible by making him look like an oathbreaker who was trying to seize the North.

[The Drunkard]

Ramsay isn't a masterful tactician, he sees an opportunity and grabs it, he's not doing a Varys and plotting throughout the entire realm. I think that he saw Jon as the last Stark alive to contest his rule or ruin it by pointing out Arya, so he did the easy thing and baited him to come south, thereby comprimising the neutrality of the Night's Watch and discreditting anything he says.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if Stannis was responsible for this. Stannis isn't really an honourable guy, he seems to do whatever it takes to enforce his version of 'justice', whether it be sending magic assassins or defeating someone in open combat. Getting Jon to come south and fight his enemies wouldn't be beyond him, in my opinion.

[Monk Meth-]

obviously ramsay.. who else would mention reek but ramsay?

[jlk7e]

I also think it's Ramsay. Even if Stannis or Mance or whoever knows about Reek, I can't imagine why they'd include a mention of him in a letter to someone who doesn't know who Reek is.

[RedPanda]

just a speculation..

this could be Mel and Stannis plans.. what better way than this to force the stubborn Jon to go to winterfell, shout that is not Arya but Jeyne, remove Bolton's hold over the title, make them look like liars and Jon forced to take Winterfell as its now Stark lord and unite the north for Stannis..

Mel could've known already about the fake Arya but kept it that way to oust the Bolton's deception.. Alys was a pawn to make Jon believe of Mel's powers, and Stannis could've also been a pawn..

Mel needed an army, how else to gain one if you play your cards right and tell a Baratheon he is AA reborn..

EDIT:

meant Mel and Stannis or Mance and Theon's plans

[Ser Jonny Nature]

I actually think it was Ramsay who wrote the letter but that he definitely lies in it. The give away for me is the fact that it is written "Bastard" on the front of the letter. I recall Ramsay always cringing when Roose would call him "Bastard" and now that he is no longer "base-born" and is legitimized as the heir to Roose Bolton he seems like the type to throw that word around as an insult because, well Ramsay is a jerk.

Also, the fact that he wants his "Reek" back says a lot to me. It's not that he want "Reek" back but he wants HIS "Reek" back.

[Lord Ben]

My guess would be that Ramsey wrote it and it's all true from his POV.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword.

He has the sword, he doesn't have Stannis's body.

Tell his red whore. Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you.

He doesn't invite him to view Stannis's remains.

You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me. I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

Mance being a prisoner is well within reason.

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

It was signed,

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

Seems pretty in character for Ramsey. So basically I think he defeated Stannis's army and captured his sword and many of his commanders and "friends" but does not have Stannis's body (who is busy escaping somewhere?)

[Nahlim]

A thing just crossed my mind. Ramsey is a bastard himself. I don't think he would repeat the word "bastard" that many times in the letter.

[The Bastard of Summer]

I just finished my re-read of ADWD thing very morning, and I too think that Melissandre wrote the letter to Jon to force upon him the AA prophecy.

I don't think she was honest with him about what she saw in her fires. He has called her a liar too many times for her liking and she knows that Jon doesn't trust her

so she takes matters into her own dirty little red hands.

[Lord Ben]

Perhaps the letter was written by Bran? Some combination of manipulation of current, past, and future events sparked to get Jon to do something about Winterfell because that's where the real threat is?

If Bran knows that Stannis will be destroyed and the Others victorious (for instance, pick your favorite result here) because he's in a dire situation he's not beyond him to manipulate Jon into marching on Winterfell and accidentally saving Stannis in the process right?