[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5

[TheNorthernWarrior]

It makes sense for Roose and Ramsay to separate, I doubt GRRM will give us the satisfaction of both falling at the same time.

[Jon snowballs]

Most poster are suggesting that this chapter is set before the sending of the pink letter. Is there a time over lap between this and the previous book? I was under the impression that GRRM would start this book straight after the last? making the pink letter an earlier event to the one described in this chapter.

cheers

[The Crow's Third Eye]

I don't remember Martin saying that but could be wrong. Certainly, POV's do not always share the same time frame, especially in the case of Arya, Dany and the Essosi POVs compared to Westeros. And even if he is making it chronological, it makes sense from a writer's POV to build suspense by ordering it as it has been written. Plus, iirc the Theon chapter was originally intended for DwD, as two major battles were cut from the end book (i.e. Battle of Ice and the Batte of Meereen)

[Jon snowballs]

Cheers for the reply think you must be right.. Just I half remember a quote of GRRM that the next book will start with Vic minutes after his last.

Cheers again

[The Crow's Third Eye]

Cheers for the reply think you must be right.. Just I half remember a quote of GRRM that the next book will start with Vic minutes after his last.

Cheers again

That might be true, but there are some differences in timings between each different POV character, most notably between those in Essos and those in Westeros.

[mrlukeduke]

07/03 Stannis prepares for battle.

07/14 Pink Letter. Jon assassinated.

According to https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj_uNZmcJaTddG9BVU5tRnJJTE5KcE5JRkFha1ZfNUE#gid=8

[Not Benjen Stark]

Listen I wanna see Stannis annhilate them but Roose Bolton isn't a fool. He knows why Manderly didn't bring his son to Winterfell and doesn't trust him for an instant. I see Bolton telling his men to turn on Manderly before the white harbor men turn on him. Then he will close winterfell and starve them out. Thats the only reason he was even willing to meet Stannis in Battle. However now that Arya has escaped Roose must attack or risk losing half his strength. Theres just too many factors at play here. However I gaurentee this Theon isn't caught by the Boltons. Arya will escape. martin wouldnt have them get past the walls if they werent actually going to go anywhere. When Roose learns that he has lost Arya he will be forced to send his entire force at Stannis (a battle which he will lose because his men haven't adjusted to the snow) or he will retreat back to the dreadfort (possible only becasue he trusts that the lannisters will back him) or he and Ramsay actually intend to march on Castle Black as they told Jon they would.

[Quentyn Kartell]

Listen I wanna see Stannis annhilate them but Roose Bolton isn't a fool. He knows why Manderly didn't bring his son to Winterfell and doesn't trust him for an instant. I see Bolton telling his men to turn on Manderly before the white harbor men turn on him. Then he will close winterfell and starve them out. Thats the only reason he was even willing to meet Stannis in Battle. However now that Arya has escaped Roose must attack or risk losing half his strength. Theres just too many factors at play here. However I gaurentee this Theon isn't caught by the Boltons. Arya will escape. martin wouldnt have them get past the walls if they werent actually going to go anywhere. When Roose learns that he has lost Arya he will be forced to send his entire force at Stannis (a battle which he will lose because his men haven't adjusted to the snow) or he will retreat back to the dreadfort (possible only becasue he trusts that the lannisters will back him) or he and Ramsay actually intend to march on Castle Black as they told Jon they would.

You're confusing me. Sounds like you are taking both sides of the coin. It's either Stannis wins or Roose wins. If Stannis won, then we know the letter to Jon is a fake. If Ramsay marches on Castle Black, then we can believe the letter is authentic. You can't have Stannis winning and Ramsay marching on Castle Black.

[Not Benjen Stark]

You're confusing me. Sounds like you are taking both sides of the coin. It's either Stannis wins or Roose wins. If Stannis won, then we know the letter to Jon is a fake. If Ramsay marches on Castle Black, then we can believe the letter is authentic. You can't have Stannis winning and Ramsay marching on Castle Black.

Yeah I definately Rambled but i think Ramsay will flee and march north to Stannis' base or back to the dreadfort rather than accept siege at Winterfell. The letter just confuses me because I can't tell if its written after the battle or before the battle. Also one idea I had is that the great battle in the snow stannis sees in the flames might be this battle and not the charge at Castle Black

[Ladywhiskers]

I think I know exactly what happened, vis, the letter. We saw Stannis use his own blood as ink, and give a letter to a raven. Blood on pink paper.

Stannis wrote what Theon told him, but it doesn't stop there. The letter gets to the Wall. The person in charge of ravens at the wall does not take it directly to Jon, but instead copies it out, shows it to Bowen Marsh, and they soak the original, dry it, and then one of them writes a new version of Stannis' letter on the same pink parchment, in his own blood, or some blood he got from the butcher rooms or the kitchens.

Because it's true that Bowen Marsh has no knowledge of the stuff going on at Winterfell, and Theon has no knowledge of stuff going on at the Wall. There is a third possibility, and that is that Stannis has also got a spearwife in addition to Theon, that he's questioning, and that the whole lettter really is Stannis's. But I thik my scenario is actually more likely. The NW wanted to know where Jon's loyalties lay, and used this letter to find out.

Regardless of who wrote the letter, we can't know from it who won, because it was written before the fight, to get Jon Snow down there to help. Since the letter's purpose was defeated by the NW, Stannis will probably lose now, because that's GRRM's way.

[Quentyn Kartell]

I think I know exactly what happened, vis, the letter. We saw Stannis use his own blood as ink, and give a letter to a raven. Blood on pink paper.

Stannis wrote what Theon told him, but it doesn't stop there. The letter gets to the Wall. The person in charge of ravens at the wall does not take it directly to Jon, but instead copies it out, shows it to Bowen Marsh, and they soak the original, dry it, and then one of them writes a new version of Stannis' letter on the same pink parchment, in his own blood, or some blood he got from the butcher rooms or the kitchens.

Because it's true that Bowen Marsh has no knowledge of the stuff going on at Winterfell, and Theon has no knowledge of stuff going on at the Wall. There is a third possibility, and that is that Stannis has also got a spearwife in addition to Theon, that he's questioning, and that the whole lettter really is Stannis's. But I thik my scenario is actually more likely. The NW wanted to know where Jon's loyalties lay, and used this letter to find out.

Regardless of who wrote the letter, we can't know from it who won, because it was written before the fight, to get Jon Snow down there to help. Since the letter's purpose was defeated by the NW, Stannis will probably lose now, because that's GRRM's way.

It did run across my mind that somebody at the Wall wrote the letter because it seemed like the letter requested that Jon give up everyone that Bowen Marsh and the rest of them do not like. But then there's the line in the letter about Mance Raydor. No one except Jon and Melisandre knew Mance was alive. So I think Mance had to write it.

[mushroomshirt]

It did run across my mind that somebody at the Wall wrote the letter because it seemed like the letter requested that Jon give up everyone that Bowen Marsh and the rest of them. But then there's the line in the letter about Mance Raydor. No one except Jon and Melisandre knew Mance was alive. So I think Mance had to write it.

I think the simplest explanation is that Ramsay wrote the letter with disinformation from Stannis. The gift chapter just further supports this by showing how Stannis got the Karstark ravens (which will fly to Winterfell). Many others have mentioned this before me, but to summarize:

1. Stannis fortifies his position and defeats the Freys, likely with the help of Manderly.

2. Stannis, writing in the guise of Karstark, uses the Winterfell raven to trick Ramsay into believing Stannis has been defeated.

3. Ramsay writes his letter to Jon Snow.

4. Stannis sends his own men back with Manderly pretending to be Freys and Karstarks, once inside Winterfell they attack the Boltons.

[Quentyn Kartell]

I think the simplest explanation is that Ramsay wrote the letter with disinformation from Stannis. The gift chapter just further supports this by showing how Stannis got the Karstark ravens (which will fly to Winterfell). Many others have mentioned this before me, but to summarize:

1. Stannis fortifies his position and defeats the Freys, likely with the help of Manderly.

2. Stannis, writing in the guise of Karstark, uses the Winterfell raven to trick Ramsay into believing Stannis has been defeated.

3. Ramsay writes his letter to Jon Snow.

4. Stannis sends his own men back with Manderly pretending to be Freys and Karstarks, once inside Winterfell they attack the Boltons.

That's almost like one of my other theories. But you took it a lil further which does make sense. But I just wonder why would Ramsay call Mance "King Beyond The Wall". He disrespects everyone in the letter except Mance Raydor, Val, and Mance's son. The letter calls Mance a King, Val a princess, and the baby a prince. I just don't think Ramsay would do that.

[Walkingdude]

I can see Stannis buggery here.Ramsey instead of Roose because Ramseys impulsive.

...but here is my twist. Who says a Bravosi banker cant walk into Winterfell? There is the perfect fibber to tell Ramsey of the battle(false) at hand. Refuge status..fleeing the fight...nobody closes their door to a banker.Also can tell Roose that Stannis wanted $$ and he the bank doesnt back losers. Will back Roose...Roose cuts Ramsey loose to harry the wall?

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

That's almost like one of my other theories. But you took it a lil further which does make sense. But I just wonder why would Ramsay call Mance "King Beyond The Wall". He disrespects everyone in the letter except Mance Raydor, Val, and Mance's son. The letter calls Mance a King, Val a princess, and the baby a prince. I just don't think Ramsay would do that.

It's not just that. Every word except Mance and Winterfell are an alternative words:

"False King" instead of Stannis

"Bastard" instead of Jon

"His Host" instead of Kingsmen and hill tribes

"Magic Sword" instead of Lightbringer

"Red Whore" instead of Mel

"False King's Friends" instead of the Washerwomen

"The World" instead of the wildling tribes

"King Beyond the Wall" instead of Mance

"My Bride" instead of Arya

"the north (lowercase)" instead of the North

"Whores" instead of the Washerwomen

"False King's Queen" instead of Selyse

"His Daughter" instead of Shireen

"Red Witch" instead of Mel

"Wildling Princess" instead of Val

"Little Prince" instead of...well, Mance's son has no name

"Reek" instead of Theon

"Black Crows" instead of the Night's Watch

"Ramsay Bolton" instead of "Ramsay Snow"

"Trueborn Lord of Winterfell" instead of "Bastard of Dreadfort"

Everything in the letter is switched except for one person and one place: Mance Rayder, Winterfell.

That's the message and the audience are the wildlings.

[My_Name_Is_Reek]

I still think Theon will escape to the Wall and join the NW.

As for the Pink Letter, I am starting to lean toward Mance Rayder writing it.

[Ladywhiskers]

Any theories about why Mance would have written it, and how he could have done so? I mean, if he's taken the castle, then why lie and say Bolton has him in a cage? If Bolton does have him in a cage, how did he write the letter? And why? What is he hoping will happen?

[Petyr Patter]

Any theories about why Mance would have written it, and how he could have done so? I mean, if he's taken the castle, then why lie and say Bolton has him in a cage? If Bolton does have him in a cage, how did he write the letter? And why? What is he hoping will happen?

I think every theory I've read suggests it was an attempt to provoke Jon to sending Night's Watch men to Winterfell.

Which is why I don't believe any of those theories. Melissandre tells Mance Rayder that Jon will keep his oath. Mance witnessed the conviction Jon had in his oaths when he barely, barely allowed Mance to try to find a fleeing Arya. Furthermore, Mance leaves the Wall before Jon makes common cause with Tormund. Meaning, the original Watch strength is well under 1,000 at this point, maybe as low as 500, while the wildlings there add maybe 300. Meaning, this isn't a large enough army to to defeat the same army that beat Stannis's force of 3 or 4 thousand. Even if Jon has no intention of obeying the letter, it is still a huge step to travel south. Developing a defensive perimeter, is a better move. There is also no reason for Mance Rayder to mention "Reek."

The best explanation for the letter remaing Ramsay wrote it, probably with information given to him by a captured spear wife or perhaps Mance himself. This would explain why he think's his bride and Reek are going to the Wall, when instead the Umbers directed them to Stannis's camp.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

I think every theory I've read suggests it was an attempt to provoke Jon to sending Night's Watch men to Winterfell.

Which is why I don't believe any of those theories. Melissandre tells Mance Rayder that Jon will keep his oath. Mance witnessed the conviction Jon had in his oaths when he barely, barely allowed Mance to try to find a fleeing Arya. Furthermore, Mance leaves the Wall before Jon makes common cause with Tormund. Meaning, the original Watch strength is well under 1,000 at this point, maybe as low as 500, while the wildlings there add maybe 300. Meaning, this isn't a large enough army to to defeat the same army that beat Stannis's force of 3 or 4 thousand. Even if Jon has no intention of obeying the letter, it is still a huge step to travel south. Developing a defensive perimeter, is a better move. There is also no reason for Mance Rayder to mention "Reek."

The best explanation for the letter remaing Ramsay wrote it, probably with information given to him by a captured spear wife or perhaps Mance himself. This would explain why he think's his bride and Reek are going to the Wall, when instead the Umbers directed them to Stannis's camp.

The reason for Mance mentions Reek and the skin cloaks is because he's pretending to be Ramsay and wants to create Ramsey's voice.

The author is clearly someone who knows some things about Ramsay, but not a lot about Ramsay.

Things he gets right: liking skin cloaks, calling Theon Reek, being Lord of Winterfell, cruel attitude.

Things he gets wrong: chopping heads off and eating hearts instead of flaying, using language like "black crows," Winterfell's wax color, no skin in the letter, handwriting.

On the things Mance gets right, he was actually present for. He heard Ramsey say he wanted to make a skin cloak out of the murderers. He heard people call Theon Reek (and talked to Theon - "I want my bride back, I want my Reek").

On the things Mance gets wrong, they are understandable mistakes considering he's a Wildling attempting to mimick Seven Kingdom speak.

It's pretty clear to me Mance is the author. He's the only name listed, he is the subject of half the letter and the "cage" is clearly to mirror his burning.

On motive:

Imagine you're Mance. You were once "free folk" and now you're the red witch's slave. She has your son and might burn him for her magic. And you're stuck at the Wall where the Others are coming.

The Red Witch sends you to Winterfell to rescue Arya. An assignment that at best leads you back to the Wall as a slave. At worst, you're killed by Ramsay or maybe Stannis.

Not a great deal.

But you do something else. You kill six random people to create some chaos and then pull Theon in your plan. You tell Theon that you're going to escape with him to Stannis, but then you stand him up. After all, going to Stannis at best leads you back to the Wall.

So, now what? You're surrounded by armies and your son is still at the Wall. You need help, but yort only friends are the Wildlngs. But how do you communicate with them? You can only get letters to the Night's Watch. How do you get your Wildlings to come to you.

Or how to do you create chaos with the Night's Watch to allow you to get your son back?

[Suzanna Stormborn]

The reason for Mance mentions Reek and the skin cloaks is because he's pretending to be Ramsay and wants to create Ramsey's voice.

The author is clearly someone who knows some things about Ramsay, but not a lot about Ramsay.

Things he gets right: liking skin cloaks, calling Theon Reek, being Lord of Winterfell, cruel attitude.

Things he gets wrong: chopping heads off and eating hearts instead of flaying, using language like "black crows," Winterfell's wax color, no skin in the letter, handwriting.

On the things Mance gets right, he was actually present for. He heard Ramsey say he wanted to make a skin cloak out of the murderers. He heard people call Theon Reek (and talked to Theon - "I want my bride back, I want my Reek").

On the things Mance gets wrong, they are understandable mistakes considering he's a Wildling attempting to mimick Seven Kingdom speak.

It's pretty clear to me Mance is the author. He's the only name listed, he is the subject of half the letter and the "cage" is clearly to mirror his burning.

On motive:

Imagine you're Mance. You were once "free folk" and now you're the red witch's slave. She has your son and might burn him for her magic. And you're stuck at the Wall where the Others are coming.

The Red Witch sends you to Winterfell to rescue Arya. An assignment that at best leads you back to the Wall as a slave. At worst, you're killed by Ramsay or maybe Stannis.

Not a great deal.

But you do something else. You kill six random people to create some chaos and then pull Theon in your plan. You tell Theon that you're going to escape with him to Stannis, but then you stand him up. After all, going to Stannis at best leads you back to the Wall.

So, now what? You're surrounded by armies and your son is still at the Wall. You need help, but yort only friends are the Wildlngs. But how do you communicate with them? You can only get letters to the Night's Watch. How do you get your Wildlings to come to you.

Or how to do you create chaos with the Night's Watch to allow you to get your son back?

Excellent post. I agree with everything 100% :) Excellent.

haha, so what are you saying about Mance's motives? that maybe he wants the wildlings down at Winterfell because he knows whose side they will take? Maybe we have another player now and Mance is trying to claim Winterfell for himself?