What is Roose Bolton's endgame?

[namtose]

And this plan doesn't seem to be working too badly, at first. Most of the northern houses do bend the knee to Tommen and accept Roose's leadership, and he leads some successful operations against the Ironborn. The Northern lords basically accept Jeyne Poole as Arya Stark, and grudgingly acquiesce in the system. Two things, I think, make this untenable in the long run - Ramsay's disgusting cruelty and Stannis's arrival in the North. But by the time Roose realizes that these things are going to be a problem, he's already committed to the position he's in. He has to make the best of it -- by defeating Stannis through treachery, by bleeding off unreliable "allies" like Manderly, by hoping that Ramsay doesn't kill fake Arya before getting a baby out of her. If he can kill enough people while remaining alive himself, Roose may be able to hold on.

I agree once the original grand plan became impossible due to the instability in KL, then this is all Roose can do. I think Roose would like to get rid of Ramsay but for the near future Roose needs him. he has very unstable allies who would turn on him if given an excuse.

i had forgotten about Reeks knowledge of the Bran and Rickon's escape. I'm not certain that Roose knew of it before agreeing to become warden of the north under Tywin. It's possible he assumed that the boys would just die in the wilderness but that's a big assumption. So with four starks unaccounted for his plan to take over the north was near impossible and either has a better claim to Winterfel and the loyalty of the north than he.

[mcb]

I'm not saying that the Northerners would try to become independent again, I'm just saying that they would not have accepted Roose, Ramsay and Freys standing over them for very long.

Don't misjudge me, I am in no way a Stark supporter. I think it is entirely possible to replace the Starks as Lords of the North, but the way that the Boltons/Freys/Lannisters have attempted to do it is so clearly doomed to failure that it is laughable.

One question: did you think the same - the Boltons are doomed, their plan is laughable - before ADWD? Because for me it looked as if future was decidedly gloomy for the good guys.

[Gurkhal]

I don't think the Boltons are nearly doomed even while things are looking a bit more sour for them than when they started. The Boltons still have a considerbal force with them and are in a strong position, and even while many probably laments the Starks the Starks are for all intents dead and thus they still have to face reality. I can also imagine that many Northmen would like to serve another Northman rather than having to serve a new Andal king.

And really, before Stannis showed up all the anti-Bolton Houses were doing nothing against Roose and only got their asses moving after Stannis proved he care for the Northmen by handing the Glovers their castle back. The Starks are gone from the radar and there are only two focal points possible to side with at this point; Roose and Stannis. When one of them goes it will have to a returning Stark to prevent the survivor from gathering the rest of the North into his hands.

[jlk7e]

I don't think the Boltons are nearly doomed even while things are looking a bit more sour for them than when they started. The Boltons still have a considerbal force with them and are in a strong position, and even while many probably laments the Starks the Starks are for all intents dead and thus they still have to face reality. I can also imagine that many Northmen would like to serve another Northman rather than having to serve a new Andal king.

And really, before Stannis showed up all the anti-Bolton Houses were doing nothing against Roose and only got their asses moving after Stannis proved he care for the Northmen by handing the Glovers their castle back. The Starks are gone from the radar and there are only two focal points possible to side with at this point; Roose and Stannis. When one of them goes it will have to a returning Stark to prevent the survivor from gathering the rest of the North into his hands.

Stannis and the Starks are not mutually exclusive - Stannis wants to give Winterfell to a Stark.

[TheFlayedMan]

One question: did you think the same - the Boltons are doomed, their plan is laughable - before ADWD? Because for me it looked as if future was decidedly gloomy for the good guys.

The only reason I thought the plan would fail was the simple reason that House Stark is the main house of the books. Five Starks were POVs (counting Cat and not counting Jon) in AGoT. Bolton's plan, in my opinion, was theoretically sound provided Tywin stayed alive. Tywin's dead, and Kevan with him. That messes things up big time for Roose, and now I'm almost certain he will fall, if not to Stannis then to the Northerners who are still loyal to the Starks.

And while they are loyal, I think claiming they will sacrifice their lives and those of their family members currently taken hostage by the Iron Throne is ridiculous based on ADwD. Not only did they bend the knee to Roose, but they were stuck in the Stark's traditional seat while Roose married the last known Stark member to his son. Surely, if they are so loyal, no time would be better to strike than then?

[Dr. Pepper]

Roose's plan (whatever it may be) was not sound so long as Tywin was alive as Tywin's plan differed from Roose's plan. Tywin planned to get a Lannister foothold in the North. He was very aware that the North would implode when he placed Roose as Warden and handed over "Arya" to be married to Ramsay. Once implosion occurred, he planned for Tyrion and Sansa to go reclaim Winterfell and the North. If Roose's plan hindered on Tywin being alive, he was fucked anyway.

[The Fallen]

Because the plan to hold the North as we've seen it seems to be so flawed that it is obviously doomed to failure. I can understand how the Freys, Lannisters and other Southron lords might think that they could exterminate and supplant the Starks and still hold the loyalty of the North through hostages, I can even see how Ramsay might think that would work, but Roose has always come across much as much smarter then that and he has lived in and been active in the politics of the North all his life.

Roose would know full well the amount of loyalty that Ned had with his bannermen. For starters even if people believe "Arya" is in fact Arya, it is still blatantly apparent that she is being held against her will. The hostages they have from the major houses are literally the only thing keeping them in line and as such they can clearly never be released. So if they are never going to be released then they are really as good as dead and it is only a matter of time before their families come to that conclusion and rebel.

Just look at whats happened, the Mormonts, Glovers and mountain clans didn't even bother pretending to swear fealty to Bolton and instead set out to rescue Ned's daughter. Half the Umbers came grudgingly and their loyalty is highly questionable and the other half are camped outside the walls setting traps. Manderly swore fealty as a show and is already plotting to bring back Stark heirs and is killing and eating Freys under their very noses.

As I said, I can understand how the Freys, Lannisters and Ramsay might think this plan could work long term, but Roose Bolton must surely have known better. So what is he up to?

You're right about the Freys. They could care less about what goes on in the North. They just had to get Robb out of the way to wipe the slate clean with the Tywin Lannister and to weaken Riverrun so that they could become the most powerful house in the Riverlands.

Then you have Tywin, who kind of muddled up what he wanted to do in the North. First, he wants Tyrion and Sansa to return to Winterfell, and eventually have a Lannister/Stark take over Winterfell (BTW, there's a high probability that the child would love Tyrion, but can you imagine his feelings towards the rest of the Lannisters after Sansa is done recounting what they did to Ned and Robb?). Then he sets up the Red Wedding and offers Winterfell to the Boltons through marriage to a fake Arya Stark.

Now, with regards to Roose Bolton, you're right that he should know better, and he does. But we forget that Roose's hand was forced once Ramsay forces Lady Hornwood to marry him and then starves her to death in her tower. At this point, Roose knows that Ramsay has put all the chips on the table. He knows that the Starks are going to ensure justice on behalf of Lady Hornwood. He has just witnessed what happened to Lord Karstark. And Lord Manderly will be pressing the Starks to do something because she was his cousin and he was also interested in her lands. Not to mention his distrust of the Boltons. So Roose has two options; he can do nothing and watch the Starks execute his last surviving heir or he can continue down the path that Ramsey has started them on, which means all-out war with the Starks for the survival of his house.

Once he chooses to betray the Starks he manages to weaken them mightily with the attack on Winterfell and the slaying or Robb Stark at the Red Wedding. But Roose knows how the North feels about Eddard, and by extension his family. It's the reason he has Ramsay marry a fake Arya Stark. On the one hand, it gives him the legitimacy of having a Stark at Winterfell. On the other hand, he knows Arya is the one Stark girl no one can account for, so that no one can discredit her reappearance.

The way I see it, Roose is trying to play out the hand he was dealt by Ramsay and trying to make the most of it. But it doesn't look promising at this point. He knows how loyal the North is to the Starks and he knows that his only power is the hostages he's holding. But as was mentioned before on these forums, that plan is doomed to fail because you have to return the hostages at some point. If you don't plan to release them, then the northern houses will just view them as dead anyways and you lose your leverage, thereby failing to prevent whatever you were looking to avoid in the first place, whether it was open rebellion against you or the vengeance of particular houses. Roose's sharing his actions with Theon come across as the actions of a man who knows he doesn't have long to live confessing his sins.

[jlk7e]

The Fallen - I don't think Ramsay means a thing to Roose. If Stannis had won at the Blackwater, Roose would have been willing enough to see Ramsay executed for his crimes. He can always make more babies with Fat Walda.

[Istakhr]

Roose's plan (whatever it may be) was not sound so long as Tywin was alive as Tywin's plan differed from Roose's plan. Tywin planned to get a Lannister foothold in the North. He was very aware that the North would implode when he placed Roose as Warden and handed over "Arya" to be married to Ramsay. Once implosion occurred, he planned for Tyrion and Sansa to go reclaim Winterfell and the North. If Roose's plan hindered on Tywin being alive, he was fucked anyway.

:agree:

This.

I don't think Roose was foolish enough not to understand the Lannister's plan to use Sansa Stark to take the north and use him as the fall guy.

Look at what he also knows: He knows Ramsay will kill any new child he has. He also know exactly what Ramsay is and has no delusions of Ramsay being able to keep the Bolton line alive.

I think his plan was two sided: Obtain a half Stark, half Bolton child and off Ramsay. This child will be able to keep at least Dreadfort, because northerners won't kill a half Stark and a child at that.

Failing that I think he believed the Bolton line would end anyway, so he wanted to kill as many Starks as possible and let Boltons of the Dreadfort to go out with a bang.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Roose's plan (whatever it may be) was not sound so long as Tywin was alive as Tywin's plan differed from Roose's plan. Tywin planned to get a Lannister foothold in the North. He was very aware that the North would implode when he placed Roose as Warden and handed over "Arya" to be married to Ramsay. Once implosion occurred, he planned for Tyrion and Sansa to go reclaim Winterfell and the North. If Roose's plan hindered on Tywin being alive, he was fucked anyway.

Exactly. If he thought the guy that has the rightful heir (that they know of) of Winterfell wasn't going to use it, then it's not a smart plan at all.

Frankly, the more I think about it, the more the "Roose didn't care and/or wanted Ramsey to be completely fucked forever even if it meant the ruin of House Bolton" theory makes sense.

[Castel]

I think that Roose was stuck between a Rock and a hard place with Ramsay. He could kill him off, but at that point, with how terrible things were, if he died and had only a child heir he would be fucked. And if he tried to raise the child Ramsay would try to kill it, which would have raised all sorts of problems.

As for Tywin, at worst he was trying to neutralise the Tyrells, at best he was trying to fuck over Roose. Honestly, he should have been worried when Tyrion married Sansa. Roose's only hope lay in somehow stabilising the North so much that Tywin didn't want to risk interfering, so he probably shouldn't have brought the Freys with him.

[Howling Mad]

Roose's only hope for subduing the north was the use of brute strength while always always watching his back. IMO Roose's decision to be a turncloak is one of the biggest errors in ASOIAF ranking up there with Robb's decision to use Theon as an envoy with his father. There is no good longterm strategy for Roose or the Boltons to stay in power even if Tywin Lannister lives and wins the war of five kings.

[Darth Pipes]

Ramsay is the ultimate example of Roose's sins coming back to haunt him.

[jlk7e]

I think that Roose was stuck between a Rock and a hard place with Ramsay. He could kill him off, but at that point, with how terrible things were, if he died and had only a child heir he would be fucked. And if he tried to raise the child Ramsay would try to kill it, which would have raised all sorts of problems.

As for Tywin, at worst he was trying to neutralise the Tyrells, at best he was trying to fuck over Roose. Honestly, he should have been worried when Tyrion married Sansa. Roose's only hope lay in somehow stabilising the North so much that Tywin didn't want to risk interfering, so he probably shouldn't have brought the Freys with him.

With Ramsay dead, what's the problem with a child heir? As for bringing the Freys, I think the big problem is that the Freys are the only good source of man power. Bolton only has so many of his own men, and basically all the other northern troops are more or less unreliable. And he doesn't really have any access to Lannister, Tyrell, or Stormlands troops. The other Riverlords are unreliable. So the Freys are a very good source of reliable additional manpower. Unfortunately, they're also hated in the North, which doesn't help. But at least Bolton knows they won't turn on him.

[Gurkhal]

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I don't know. Before Stannis arrived there was no focal point for the Northmen to rally around against the Ironborn with the exception of Roose, and with both the Ryswells, Boltons, Karstarks and half the Umbers (who are playing for both sides and probably have little sense of loyalty to a dead House to guide them) Roose looked pretty much as a winner to me.

If he nails Stannis then as far as people go there will no nothing for them to really around, until Davos returns with Rickon but how many knows about that at this point? Like, a couple of Manderlys and Davos.

[jlk7e]

Roose's only hope for subduing the north was the use of brute strength while always always watching his back. IMO Roose's decision to be a turncloak is one of the biggest errors in ASOIAF ranking up there with Robb's decision to use Theon as an envoy with his father. There is no good longterm strategy for Roose or the Boltons to stay in power even if Tywin Lannister lives and wins the war of five kings.

Yeah, it seems distinctly short-sighted to me. The smart move would have been to continue to serve Robb loyally. If Robb eventually comes to terms with the Lannisters, all the better. If he doesn't, and ends up crushed by them, Roose can bend the knee at that point, as the Riverlords and most of the other Northern lords did after the Red Wedding, without suffering any significant harm.

We're told that Roose is cautious and works towards minimizing potential losses, but the Red Wedding is not a cautious move at all -- it's an ambitious roll of the dice, and one where Bolton takes unnecessary risks, like murdering Robb right in front of Catelyn, who isn't intended to be killed. I really wish we knew a bit more about the planning of the Red Wedding.

[jlk7e]

If he nails Stannis then as far as people go there will no nothing for them to really around, until Davos returns with Rickon but how many knows about that at this point? Like, a couple of Manderlys and Davos.

Robett Glover certainly knows. It's quite possible that Lord Locke and Lady Flint also knows what's up, and maybe the Umber uncles and the folks at Greywater Watch, too.

[Istakhr]

With Ramsay dead, what's the problem with a child heir? As for bringing the Freys, I think the big problem is that the Freys are the only good source of man power. Bolton only has so many of his own men, and basically all the other northern troops are more or less unreliable. And he doesn't really have any access to Lannister, Tyrell, or Stormlands troops. The other Riverlords are unreliable. So the Freys are a very good source of reliable additional manpower. Unfortunately, they're also hated in the North, which doesn't help. But at least Bolton knows they won't turn on him.

Boltons are already hated because of the RW and all Ramsay's actions. I don't think their house can survive with a child lord. Who is going to command their army?

Though their chances of survival was slim anyway and now it is near non.

[jlk7e]

Boltons are already hated because of the RW and all Ramsay's actions. I don't think their house can survive with a child lord. Who is going to command their army?

Though their chances of survival was slim anyway and now it is near non.

Yeah, of course you're right. I was thinking more in terms of Roose's decision to go forward with the Red Wedding in the first place. If he hadn't, he'd have just been a normal northern lord, and no more hated than anyone else, and a child lord would be perfectly acceptable. I'm also not sure why Roose is so certain he won't live to see a newborn son to adulthood - he's only in his early 40s, and plenty of Westerosi live into their 60s.

[Castel]

Roose's only hope for subduing the north was the use of brute strength while always always watching his back.

Pretty much this. But I wonder how much of the timeline fucked him. I think a great part of him wanting to rebel was Theon killing Bran and Rickon and creating a situation where he could take out all the Starks. By the time he figured out the truth it may have been too late and he may have just gone through with it anyway.

Yeah, it seems distinctly short-sighted to me. The smart move would have been to continue to serve Robb loyally. If Robb eventually comes to terms with the Lannisters, all the better. If he doesn't, and ends up crushed by them, Roose can bend the knee at that point, as the Riverlords and most of the other Northern lords did after the Red Wedding, without suffering any significant harm.

We're told that Roose is cautious and works towards minimizing potential losses, but the Red Wedding is not a cautious move at all -- it's an ambitious roll of the dice, and one where Bolton takes unnecessary risks, like murdering Robb right in front of Catelyn, who isn't intended to be killed. I really wish we knew a bit more about the planning of the Red Wedding.

See, the Red Wedding was a master stroke, in some ways. There's little reason that Roose's plan wouldn't have worked if Stannis hadn't come stomping in. He CAN hold the north by sheer force if necessary, he's the only one that survived with his army intact. Even the Manderlys are drawing on green boys and recruits and they have a city/trade-hub that should be better populated. Winter is coming and so no one is marching on Winterfell or the Dreadfort, and as it stands no one is really making any fast moves.

And he has enough hostages to make things very difficult for everyone.