What is Roose Bolton's endgame?

[Istakhr]

See, the Red Wedding was a master stroke, in some ways. There's little reason that Roose's plan wouldn't have worked if Stannis hadn't come stomping in. He CAN hold the north by sheer force if necessary, he's the only one that survived with his army intact. Even the Manderlys are drawing on green boys and recruits and they have a city/trade-hub that should be better populated. Winter is coming and so no one is marching on Winterfell or the Dreadfort, and as it stands no one is really making any fast moves.

And he has enough hostages to make things very difficult for everyone.

As lon as the older Stark girl was alive all his plans were useless. Non of the northern lords would have helped him if Lannisters or another great house of south tried to remove him in Sansa and/or her child's name. Bolton forces alone are nothing compared to a great southern house and why would another northern house even lift a finger to help him then?

[The Drunkard]

- Get rid of the Starks, and/or marry into them.

- Ride out the few months/years of turbulence through hostages and marriage.

- Get people used to his rule, give them peace for a few years, make them lose all their enthusiasm to defeat him.

- Live happily ever after.

[Dr. Pepper]

My personal thoughts on what Roose Bolton's end game was this big convoluted, crackpotish theory that I could barely explain to myself, let alone others, and yet I was mighty attached to it. I have to admit that this thread has pretty much shattered that ridiculous theory of mine and nearly convinced me that Roose's plan is pretty much just nihilistic.

[Artos Stark]

Roose is in way over his head and is starting to realize it. I think his end game is to get out of this thing alive and go back to the Deadfort with his tail between his legs.

[jlk7e]

- Get rid of the Starks, and/or marry into them.

- Ride out the few months/years of turbulence through hostages and marriage.

- Get people used to his rule, give them peace for a few years, make them lose all their enthusiasm to defeat him.

- Live happily ever after.

It's hard to see this working with Ramsay around. Roose seems to be well aware that his son is a psychopath.

[Gurkhal]

Roose is in way over his head and is starting to realize it. I think his end game is to get out of this thing alive and go back to the Deadfort with his tail between his legs.

But not before he's got a few Stark skins to warm himself with through the winter, after which is time to go out from the Dreadfort and start kicking asses again.

- Get rid of the Starks, and/or marry into them.

- Ride out the few months/years of turbulence through hostages and marriage.

- Get people used to his rule, give them peace for a few years, make them lose all their enthusiasm to defeat him.

- Live happily ever after.

Sounds like a solid plan to me.

It's hard to see this working with Ramsay around. Roose seems to be well aware that his son is a psychopath.

Which is why I, and several other people, think that Roose is going to off Ramsay in a manner which won't make Roose a kinslayer as soon as Ramsay is no longer needed. Fat Walda's son will inherit the Dreadfort.

[Tewks44]

Keep in mind from the perspective of the Lannister/Bolton alliance

Ned Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Caitlyn Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Robb Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Bran Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Rickon Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Arya Stark - Married into the Bolton family (obviously they know this isn't the case, but this is "Arya's" role in their scheme)

Sansa Stark - fled kings landing, most likely a refugee in Essos (they have no way of knowing she is working with Littlefinger

Although they are incorrect in their assumptions, from where they stand, the Bolton's are a fantastic choice to rule the north, so I'd say Roose's end game is to be the warden of the North and have "a quite rule over a quite people." (I probably butchered that quote, but I think that's the gist of what Roose said in ADwD

[Winterfell is Burning]

But he can't have a quiet rule with Ramsay around, nor he can when he murdered Robb personally. That's what intrigues me- he could have just played nice in the wedding and pretended he was just captured with everyone else, unless he's dumb enough to think no one of the hostages will ever escape nor be released, nor will any of the Freys ever talk.

[Tewks44]

But he can't have a quiet rule with Ramsay around, nor he can when he murdered Robb personally. That's what intrigues me- he could have just played nice in the wedding and pretended he was just captured with everyone else, unless he's dumb enough to think no one of the hostages will ever escape nor be released, nor will any of the Freys ever talk.

While it would make more sense logically for Roose to do this, I don't think he has much to fear from the Freys. The Freys want to become a powerful house, and they wouldn't be able to do that by slandering the new Warden of the North who is supported by the Lannisters and the Iron Throne. Sure maybe the Freys could come out with this knowledge and get some Northern lords loyal to the Starks to their side, but the Freys have no interest in rebelling, and I think Roose knows this.

[I'll pay the iron price]

The Great Jon will want Roose's head on a plate!

[Winterfell is Burning]

While it would make more sense logically for Roose to do this, I don't think he has much to fear from the Freys. The Freys want to become a powerful house, and they wouldn't be able to do that by slandering the new Warden of the North who is supported by the Lannisters and the Iron Throne. Sure maybe the Freys could come out with this knowledge and get some Northern lords loyal to the Starks to their side, but the Freys have no interest in rebelling, and I think Roose knows this.

What I meant was some loud mouthed Frey boast it into a conversation after a few drinks (quite possible) or reveal it under torture (also quite possible). Trust the Freys is obviously a mistake, and he should know better than anyone else.

[Archibald Norrey]

It seems to me that everyone is forgetting the Stark words. Not only is winter coming, it is here. Since Winter has set in, we have seen castle after castle running short of food. We have seen some of the great castles of the North sacked since the summer, and the greatest of all (with both supplies and a glass garden) pillaged beyond recognition. Whether its the NW, Stannis, or Bolton, everyone is looking at a very hungry winter...

RB is a man of the north. He knows that this will be a long and hungry winter, and I think he is trusting that a long hungry winter will thin the North a bit so that it will be somewhat more manageable in the spring. His short term plan is to survive, and his long term plan is to hold the North with the help of the weather. As long as he and his men are warm and well fed (at the expense of the small folk and the other houses) spring might look like a good time to be a Bolton (from his perspective).

It is also important to note that the Boltons were the last northern house to bend the knee to the Kings of Winter, and have likely been waiting/planning for this day for 1000 years.

[mcb]

What I meant was some loud mouthed Frey boast it into a conversation after a few drinks (quite possible) or reveal it under torture (also quite possible). Trust the Freys is obviously a mistake, and he should know better than anyone else.

Now, that's a fine example of irony: Roose Bolton, while participating in plotting the Red Wedding, apparently thought to himself "I'm gonna trust the Freys, I see no way that can backfire".

[Castel]

But he can't have a quiet rule with Ramsay around, nor he can when he murdered Robb personally. That's what intrigues me- he could have just played nice in the wedding and pretended he was just captured with everyone else, unless he's dumb enough to think no one of the hostages will ever escape nor be released, nor will any of the Freys ever talk.

If he did this then he has no way of coming back to the North in time to establish his power. He's not the sort of prisoner that the Lannisters would let go, so it'd be obvious that he made some sort of deal. As for killing Robb, trying to think back but I think that all of the people in the hall were killed. The Greatjon was outside, while Dacey died and Ser Wendel (?) took an arrow to the kn- er, mouth.

I think that it's irrelevant honestly, everyone knows who killed the Starks, and they have them at their tables anyway. That's why it was so smart to attack when he did. If there was a Stark left and his rebellion was like Robert's, with Stark claimants left over in his eyes, he would be fucked, but as it stands Roose is the best game in town, and after the war, no one really wants another battle against a man that has a son like Ramsay he can let loose on people just to avenge a corpse. The only people fighting are doing it subtly.

[mcb]

Keep in mind from the perspective of the Lannister/Bolton alliance

Err... you're wrong right here. From the Lannister perspective, Roose Bolton was supposed to be their Beast Rabban, designed from the beginning to fail and be replaced by Tyrion married to Sansa. No such thing as 'Lannister/Bolton alliance', at least none that was meant to last.

And after Tyrion's imprisonment and Tywin's death, Cersei took the helm, and there's never been to much room in her pretty head for strategic thinking.

Sansa Stark - fled kings landing, most likely a refugee in Essos (they have no way of knowing she is working with Littlefinger

But as long as she's not confirmed dead, Arya's claim to Winterfell is weak and volatile.

[The Drunkard]

But as long as she's not confirmed dead, Arya's claim to Winterfell is weak and volatile.

I don't know. After Arya went missing everyone, including her family, just assumed she was dead somewhere. The same would probably be true for Sansa.

[Scipio Africanus]

Keep in mind from the perspective of the Lannister/Bolton alliance

Ned Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Caitlyn Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Robb Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Bran Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Rickon Stark - Dead, no longer a claimant to the north

Arya Stark - Married into the Bolton family (obviously they know this isn't the case, but this is "Arya's" role in their scheme)

Sansa Stark - fled kings landing, most likely a refugee in Essos (they have no way of knowing she is working with Littlefinger

Although they are incorrect in their assumptions, from where they stand, the Bolton's are a fantastic choice to rule the north, so I'd say Roose's end game is to be the warden of the North and have "a quite rule over a quite people." (I probably butchered that quote, but I think that's the gist of what Roose said in ADwD

Roose Bolton would be forgetting something as well as you have. Robb's will, probably making Jonny his heir unless he begets naturally born children.

Howland Reed wouldn't follow Bolton after what they had done, and the rest of the North would still be very open to rebel after most of them knew the will.

And then there's the Greatjon. Unless he's locked up he'd openly rebel as well.

No I don't see the North pacified by Roose Bolton at all.

[namtose]

Err... you're wrong right here. From the Lannister perspective, Roose Bolton was supposed to be their Beast Rabban, designed from the beginning to fail and be replaced by Tyrion married to Sansa. No such thing as 'Lannister/Bolton alliance', at least none that was meant to last.

And after Tyrion's imprisonment and Tywin's death, Cersei took the helm, and there's never been to much room in her pretty head for strategic thinking.

The Sansa - Tyrion marriage is meant to accomplish two things; make tyrion an 'honest man' less the whore-monger he is percieved to be and to put a lannister presence in the North with Stark/Lannister children at Winterfel. Roose bolton can still remain as warden of the north, nothing about the marriage changes that fact.

[Artos Stark]

But not before he's got a few Stark skins to warm himself with through the winter, after which is time to go out from the Dreadfort and start kicking asses again.

Sounds like a solid plan to me.

Which is why I, and several other people, think that Roose is going to off Ramsay in a manner which won't make Roose a kinslayer as soon as Ramsay is no longer needed. Fat Walda's son will inherit the Dreadfort.

To get Stark skins he's actually going to have Starks in his hands, which he has none. It will be the Stark bannerman and possibly Stannis that beat him down and when it's just him alone he's going to try to run back to the dreadfot but I dunno that he'll make it. By the end of the series there will be a new lord of th dreadfort, it is known.

[namtose]

A point and a question.

It's important to remember that Tywin does not really like Tyrion (the opposite of this board who thinks him brilliant and wonderful.) so his marriage to Sansa accomplishes a number of things, gets him out of KL, 'grows him up' to be a married man, and provide Stark-Lannister offspring to hold Winterfel and to be an outpost for Lannister power in the north. Roose Bolton would be an ally in this by aiding Tyrion. Tywin did not plan the RW but he certainly knew it was going to happen and blessed the Freys and Bolton. Roose Bolton will remain as warden of the north because it's the children of Tyrion that are important in Lannister control of the north.

The question is do the Boltons actually know that their 'Arya' is a fake, we know that Tywin and Jaime do but do the Boltons? Theon verifies Jeyne is Arya but .....

If 'Arya' is known to the Boltons to be fake that is a weaken position for them to be in but if they think she is real then the Lannisters have a huge card with the real Sansa saying, 'Fake.'