Battle of the Fords

[Frey Pie]

He couldn't keep his forces together due to lannister raiding apparently, or the threat of it. If he had wanted to march against the raiding army he would have had the full muster of all his banners. He actually does jack shit to stop Tywin's depredations in the riverlands.

My point is that his plan actually wasn't working. Tywin parks his butt at HH because he wants to defend KL from Stan and Ren. He moves when he thinks that threat has receded somewhat, something which Robb was not anticipating as everyone assumed the Baratheon brothers would work together.

I believe he gives the Riverlords permission to disperse back to their lands to protect them. His plan didnt even need to work. If it didnt he was still going to be in a far superior position to Tywin in that hes richer, fatter and has higher moral after winning all over the West. If Tywin stays where he is he cant do jack. If the shadow baby didnt happen Tywin wouldnt have been able to defend against either Stannis or Renly without the power of the Tyrells unless he was on the walls of KL. Then again hed be pretty hungry......

Robbs strategy was win win. Tywins took a massive ammount of luck

[Frey Pie]

Yup. If the shadowbaby hadn't killed Renly it's not entirely impossible that Tywin would be able to defeat him and his army at King's Landing either. He would have something like 30 000 men against Renly's 70 000 or so. Hard odds numerically, but Tywin would have the fortified advantage, and Renly always gave me the impression of being a piss-poor general in comparison to Tywin. Loved by his men, but extremely arrogant, naive and lazy. So it's possible that Tywin could simply have won there, and then taken his army + the Baratheon scraps to finish off Robb's brave six thousand raping and pillaging the Westerlands. He would have lost a lot of wealth and people at home during the time he was dealing with Renly, but victory could still have been his in the end.

Tywin has 15000-20000men left after the Battle of the Fords and so many forced marches. Renly has the full support of his men which are numbered between 80000 and 100000, well armed and fresh. Sure they are inexperienced. But hes got good commanders with him-Garlan, Randyll etc. Add the City Watch to Tywin and being generous he has 26000 men. Renlys not a complete fool and his some of his Stormlanders will be veterans. I dont see Tywin winning this but even if he does hel lose most of his army and theyll be in no poisition to face Robbs army, Edmures and Rooses

[King Aerys the Just]

I believe he gives the Riverlords permission to disperse back to their lands to protect them. His plan didnt even need to work. If it didnt he was still going to be in a far superior position to Tywin in that hes richer, fatter and has higher moral after winning all over the West. If Tywin stays where he is he cant do jack. If the shadow baby didnt happen Tywin wouldnt have been able to defend against either Stannis or Renly without the power of the Tyrells unless he was on the walls of KL. Then again hed be pretty hungry......

Stannis would be very tricky, but Renly seems exactly like the guy who could have fallen for a double-envelopment type manuevre, like at the battles of Cannae or Fraustadt. He has the arrogance for it, and once he realised how many more men than Tywin he had he might well just have ordered a mass attack forward and called it a day.

[King Aerys the Just]

Tywin has 15000-20000men left after the Battle of the Fords and so many forced marches. Renly has the full support of his men which are numbered between 80000 and 100000, well armed and fresh. Sure they are inexperienced. But hes got good commanders with him-Garlan, Randyll etc. Add the City Watch to Tywin and being generous he has 26000 men. Renlys not a complete fool and his some of his Stormlanders will be veterans. I dont see Tywin winning this but even if he does hel lose most of his army and theyll be in no poisition to face Robbs army, Edmures and Rooses

But there wouldn't have been either a Battle of the Fords or many forced marches if this had taken place. So closer to 25000 men than not. Plus the City watch as you said, and whatever Crownland levies he could scrape together. Renly had 80 000 men before he attacked Stannis. It's not inconcievable that the battle against his brother, but most of all the diseases of keeping an army as large as that in a single place while slowly trudging forward, would have reduced his forces by ten thousand or so. Remember that the Korean war was the first large recorded conflict were more soldiers died from combat than non-combat causes, and that one of the main reasons for why you don't tend to see such huge armies as Renly's before the modern age was the logistic catastrophes that would have ensued.

[Chaircat Meow]

Yup. If the shadowbaby hadn't killed Renly it's not entirely impossible that Tywin would be able to defeat him and his army at King's Landing either. He would have something like 30 000 men against Renly's 70 000 or so. Hard odds numerically, but Tywin would have the fortified advantage, and Renly always gave me the impression of being a piss-poor general in comparison to Tywin. Loved by his men, but extremely arrogant, naive and lazy. So it's possible that Tywin could simply have won there, and then taken his army + the Baratheon scraps to finish off Robb's brave six thousand raping and pillaging the Westerlands. He would have lost a lot of wealth and people at home during the time he was dealing with Renly, but victory could still have been his in the end.

Exactly.

Whoever wins the war in the east is likely to roll up Robb. And Robb removes himself from this struggle entirely.

If anyone can lose with 70-80,000 men it is probably Renly. He has Robert's boldness and incaution but none of the martial qualities that actually made Robert respected. In CoK he is clearly shown making mistakes when he has to deal with Stannis' 5,000 men outside SE. He splits the army, races ahead of his supply lines so he has no operational flexibility, wants to charge into the sun's glare etc. Stannis is clearly banking on him fucking up and Tywin is no doubt doing the same.

It annoys me when people assume Renly's victory against Tywin is a given when it clearly isn't. More probable than not certainly, but Renly is a poor general, his army is very large and unwieldy, Tywin will be able to pick his ground, etc, there are all sorts of things that can happen in a campaign that people refuse to factor in.

[Barty]

Edmure was a fool - he did not look at the broader picture. All he saw was Tywin in Tully lands so he went about stopping him. All he had to do was stop and think for a minute - if Tywin reaches the westerlands then no way is he able to retreat back to King's Landing(which Edmure knew very well from cat is about to come under attack by Stannis). Without Tywin defending King's Landing even an idiot like edmure can figure out the city will fall, once King's Landing falls, Tywin has no choice but to bend the knee. All Edmure had to do was think about what would happen if Tywin crosses Tully lands but he was too stupid to even consider it.

[Barty]

Exactly.

Whoever wins the war in the east is likely to roll up Robb. And Robb removes himself from this struggle entirely.

If anyone can lose with 70-80,000 men it is probably Renly. He has Robert's boldness and incaution but none of the martial qualities that actually made Robert respected. In CoK he is clearly shown making mistakes when he has to deal with Stannis' 5,000 men outside SE. He splits the army, races ahead of his supply lines so he has no operational flexibility, wants to charge into the sun's glare etc. Stannis is clearly banking on him fucking up and Tywin is no doubt doing the same.

It annoys me when people assume Renly's victory against Tywin is a given when it clearly isn't. More probable than not certainly, but Renly is a poor general, his army is very large and unwieldy, Tywin will be able to pick his ground, etc, there are all sorts of things that can happen in a campaign that people refuse to factor in.

Sure the victor cannot be foretold easily, but what can be foretold is that whoever wins after such a huge battle wont have the strength remaining to come and conquer the riverlands and the north. Whoever loses, Robb wins

[Frey Pie]

So if Stannis learns that Renly has beaten Stannis in battle he wont try to cross the Riverlands? Even though yer saying the fallout from that battle would mean many casualties for Renly and so slow him down even further. Yet Stannis pulling up for a few days to siege SE means Tywin goes west in the real story, even though he has no idea if Stannis means to leave a token force etc? I dont buy it for a second

Say what you will Tywins an able commander. His troops are demoralised and far from a home thats being attacked by what they see as barbaric foreigners. Tywin is not Hannibal. I find it very hard to see him pulling off such a victory against the knights of the Reach in open battle. Renlys not his brothers but if he wins against Stannis it will cost him. Hel lose his innocence and have to start listening to his commanders. Would Tarly or Garlan lose?

Bran are you really saying that after possibly the biggest battle ever seen, the victor will be able to turn around nno bother and take Robb Stark and his kingdom easily? Even though the two sides in the preceding battle are fighting for opposite kings and are huge enemies? The fallout would be huge, while Robb consolidates his power in the Riverlands and his bannermen recover their strength. Hell hed probably even have time to retake the North, put it on guard and bring down some reinforcements. The loosers of the battle arent going to form a cohesive force, when each lord has men who died because of the other

[Chaircat Meow]

Sure the victor cannot be foretold easily, but what can be foretold is that whoever wins after such a huge battle wont have the strength remaining to come and conquer the riverlands and the north. Whoever loses, Robb wins

That is hardly certain. The losses sustained by winners and losers are often hilariously mismatched, especially in ancient/medieval warfare, when most casualties get sustained in the rout.

And if, say Tywin won, this could lead to many of the stormlords reaffirming their allegiance to Joffrey. With Renly gone, Tywin, being the pragmatic fellow he is, could try to cut a deal with the Tyrells (or get LF to do it). Maybe that would not have worked, maybe it would have done.

Regardless, all this is moot, because Robb's plan was to draw Tywin west. He didn't want him to slug it out with Renly and Stannis as far as we can tell. It is true that the particular way in which events in the south unfolded was almost uniquely unfavourable to Robb. I do agree with that.

[Chaircat Meow]

So if Stannis learns that Renly has beaten Stannis in battle he wont try to cross the Riverlands? Even though yer saying the fallout from that battle would mean many casualties for Renly and so slow him down even further. Yet Stannis pulling up for a few days to siege SE means Tywin goes west in the real story, even though he has no idea if Stannis means to leave a token force etc? I dont buy it for a second

People say exactly this though in CoK. It is thought Stannis will not leave SE un-taken in his rear (on the grounds he is a methodical commander) and that this will tie up the whole army (Tyrion basically says this, I think). Everyone is surprised when it falls so quickly (SE does not fall in a few days, its the greatest fortress on the land). I also think SE is huge and needs a big force to besiege it. GrrM established that when he had most of the Reach camping outside it during the rebellion. I think Tyrell was dragging his heels a bit there but it is inconceivable a large host would be required if a small holding force would do the trick.

Tywin is waiting to block an assault on KL. If he knew Renly was marching towards it he would stay and try to stop him. I thought that was pretty damn clear from the text myself, but I don't have the books with me.

Edit: If the battle went well for Renly outside SE he probably wouldn't have many casualties.

[Chaircat Meow]

Bran are you really saying that after possibly the biggest battle ever seen, the victor will be able to turn around nno bother and take Robb Stark and his kingdom easily? Even though the two sides in the preceding battle are fighting for opposite kings and are huge enemies? The fallout would be huge, while Robb consolidates his power in the Riverlands and his bannermen recover their strength. Hell hed probably even have time to retake the North, put it on guard and bring down some reinforcements. The loosers of the battle arent going to form a cohesive force, when each lord has men who died because of the other

Unless Robb pulls his diplomatic oar out I think this is a likely outcome. The Tyrells and Stormlords do seem very focused on the Iron Throne, which Robb does not aspire too. Tywin doesn't mind getting his hands dirty and sucking up to former foes if it would preserve the kingdom (as he says to Joff). Robb isn't strengthening his forces or his kingdom much by tootling around in the west and he is going to have to go north soon, leaving the riverlands exposed.

Ok, I agree, the way things turned out was almost the worst case scenario for Robb, but I still don't believe his strategy was good, especially seeing as I don't think he payed very much attention to southern affairs and saw the war as being between him and Tywin to a greater extent than he should have done.

[Frey Pie]

People say exactly this though in CoK. It is thought Stannis will not leave SE un-taken in his rear (on the grounds he is a methodical commander) and that this will tie up the whole army (Tyrion basically says this, I think). Everyone is surprised when it falls so quickly. I also think SE is huge and needs a big force to besiege it. GrrM established that when he had most of the Reach camping outside it during the rebellion.

Tywin is waiting to block an assault on KL. If he knew Renly was marching towards it he would stay and try to stop him. I thought that was pretty damn clear from the text myself, but I don't have the books with me.

Edit: If the battle went well for Renly outside SE he probably wouldn't have many casualties.

But Renly who was already crawling towards KL, now with a whole host of injured and wounded men to slow him even further wouldnt give him enough time? SE can be sieged by 5000 men and a fleet to blockade the port. It is obvious thats what he was doing, whats not obvious is that he has the ability to pull off a win against formidable odds

Deaths in battles need not be huge to decide a winner but in the situation described im pretty sure Robbs combined force would be larger than anyother left

[Chaircat Meow]

But Renly who was already crawling towards KL, now with a whole host of injured and wounded men to slow him even further wouldnt give him enough time? SE can be sieged by 5000 men and a fleet to blockade the port. It is obvious thats what he was doing, whats not obvious is that he has the ability to pull off a win against formidable odds

Deaths in battles need not be huge to decide a winner but in the situation described im pretty sure Robbs combined force would be larger than anyother left

I don't think Stannis can afford to leave 5,000 men, and a good part of his fleet behind him, when he marches on KL.

IIRC he will have about 16,000 knights from Renly's army, after his death, plus the men he already had. And he needs the ships to besiege the place.

Anyway, regardless of whether you agree with this assessment that is what Tyrion thinks, IIRC, and Tywin too as his march to the west is a reaction to news Stannis still has to take SE.

And no, Renly crawling towards KL wouldn't give him enough time. Did I say this?

[Frey Pie]

Unless Robb pulls his diplomatic oar out I think this is a likely outcome. The Tyrells and Stormlords do seem very focused on the Iron Throne, which Robb does not aspire too. Tywin doesn't mind getting his hands dirty and sucking up to former foes if it would preserve the kingdom (as he says to Joff). Robb isn't strengthening his forces or his kingdom much by tootling around in the west and he is going to have to go north soon, leaving the riverlands exposed.

Ok, I agree, the way things turned out was almost the worst case scenario for Robb, but I still don't believe his strategy was good, especially seeing as I don't think he payed very much attention to southern affairs and saw the war as being between him and Tywin to a greater extent than he should have done.

Well in that case wer going to have to agree to disagree. To say Robbs strategy doesnt take into account Southern affairs is bizarre seen as Robb does send an emissary to the Baratheons, while Tywin stays away from both of them. Robb is neither ones immediate enemy while Tywin is both the brothers enemy in chief along with Joffrey

[King Aerys the Just]

Moving anywhere with an army as large as Renly's would take time, especially since Renly seems to prefer throwing parties along the way. Not long enough for Tywin to go all the way west, kill Robb, and go back though. Not to mention that he'd want as much time as possible in the Crownlands to prepare for Renly's huge onslaught when he arrives. Digging defences, recruiting every soldier possible in the countryside and King's Landing, bringing over more sellswords from Essos etc.

So I think the idea of Tywin moving west if Renly had defeated Stannis could be completely discarded.

[Frey Pie]

And no, Renly crawling towards KL wouldn't give him enough time. Did I say this?

No this is what i was saying. Renly was taking months to travel to KL, hel be slower with his injured men. How long was it going to take Stannis to retake his home? Surely not so long against such a small force and with knowledge of the castle. So i think Renlys crawl would give him all the time he needs for whatever plan he had going west. I still think he would have tried to go west and been badly bloodied at the fords.

Anyway i no longer care. Im out. Olympics time

[Frey Pie]

Moving anywhere with an army as large as Renly's would take time, especially since Renly seems to prefer throwing parties along the way. Not long enough for Tywin to go all the way west, kill Robb, and go back though. Not to mention that he'd want as much time as possible in the Crownlands to prepare for Renly's huge onslaught when he arrives. Digging defences, recruiting every soldier possible in the countryside and King's Landing, bringing over more sellswords from Essos etc.

So I think the idea of Tywin moving west if Renly had defeated Stannis could be completely discarded.

I dont think Tywin has enough money to buy sellswords with his army and the treasury is empty, the Crownlands is starving and im pretty sure everyone that could be found has been pressed into service. He can dig all he wants though

[Chaircat Meow]

No this is what i was saying. Renly was taking months to travel to KL, hel be slower with his injured men. How long was it going to take Stannis to retake his home? Surely not so long against such a small force and with knowledge of the castle. So i think Renlys crawl would give him all the time he needs for whatever plan he had going west. I still think he would have tried to go west and been badly bloodied at the fords.

Anyway i no longer care. Im out. Olympics time

I think everyone thought SE would hold for ages.

[King Aerys the Just]

I dont think Tywin has enough money to buy sellswords with his army and the treasury is empty, the Crownlands is starving and im pretty sure everyone that could be found has been pressed into service. He can dig all he wants though

Point taken about the Crownlands, but regarding the sellswords he might have been able to promise them a large share of the war booty of Renly's host. Plundering defeated armies during the middle ages was extremely lucrative; ransoming captured knights, selling military equipment and horses, looting personal belongings and coins etc.

I remember reading that the booty of Agincourt was something in the region of twenty times the annual tax revenue of the English Crown. That's the kind of scale we are talking about.

[Frey Pie]

Point taken about the Crownlands, but regarding the sellswords he might have been able to promise them a large share of the war booty of Renly's host. Plundering defeated armies during the middle ages was extremely lucrative; ransoming captured knights, selling military equipment and horses, looting personal belongings and coins etc.

I remember reading that the booty of Agincourt was something in the region of twenty times the annual tax revenue of the English Crown. That's the kind of scale we are talking about.

Maybe. Sellswords also like to be on the winning side though and theyre facing bad odds here. We know they have no problem switching sides. In any case if he doesnt have time to destroy Robb Stark he doesnt have time to send someone east, find enough companies to make a difference, and get back over in time for battle. Especially considering hes outnumbered at sea

In summary Robbs strategy was working until lady fate turned against him