Battle of the Fords

[King Aerys the Just]

Maybe. Sellswords also like to be on the winning side though and theyre facing bad odds here. We know they have no problem switching sides. In any case if he doesnt have time to destroy Robb Stark he doesnt have time to send someone east, find enough companies to make a difference, and get back over in time for battle. Especially considering hes outnumbered at sea

Mayhaps.

In summary Robbs strategy was working until lady fate turned against him

It was working, but it was sub-optimal. Then he screwed up completely by not telling Edmure, but we've been over all of that already.

[E-Ro]

If tywin faced renlys 80,000 he MIGHT have won. If he did his casualties would have been high, it is true the winning side usually takes very little deaths becaus most die when they run. But aginst 80,000(an impossible number for these times) I think tywins casualties would be high. Remeber tywins army has seen action already and been engaged in a few battles and forced marches, I would put tywins numbers at 15,000. Him pulling off a victory against 80,000 would cement him as a tactical genius. So if tywin wins he might be able to gather some more strength but he is not going after robb anytime soon. If renly wins he would most likely have the strength to face robb, but if he puts anyone other then randyl in charge he is in for a rude awakening. I could see renly giving the command to loras becaus he favors him witch could end in disaster. So if tywin goes up against renly no matter who wins robb is better off, remeber he has to go back north to boot out the ironborn, once robb gets north he is untouchable short of a faceless man. I belive in credit were it is due, we know robb and tywin say what you will about either of them are at least above average on the battlefield. So the war between them would come down to whoever gets the most support, and luck. Imo they are evenly matched, but given time robb would have surpassed him.

[Chaircat Meow]

If tywin faced renlys 80,000 he MIGHT have won. If he did his casualties would have been high, it is true the winning side usually takes very little deaths becaus most die when they run. But aginst 80,000(an impossible number for these times) I think tywins casualties would be high. Remeber tywins army has seen action already and been engaged in a few battles and forced marches, I would put tywins numbers at 15,000. Him pulling off a victory against 80,000 would cement him as a tactical genius. So if tywin wins he might be able to gather some more strength but he is not going after robb anytime soon. If renly wins he would most likely have the strength to face robb, but if he puts anyone other then randyl in charge he is in for a rude awakening. I could see renly giving the command to loras becaus he favors him witch could end in disaster. So if tywin goes up against renly no matter who wins robb is better off, remeber he has to go back north to boot out the ironborn, once robb gets north he is untouchable short of a faceless man. I belive in credit were it is due, we know robb and tywin say what you will about either of them are at least above average on the battlefield. So the war between them would come down to whoever gets the most support, and luck. Imo they are evenly matched, but given time robb would have surpassed him.

Good summary.

When I say Robb was going to get rolled up I meant he was going to lose the south. If he could force his way back past the moat the odds are on him to hold the north, obviously (to be honest, that is the case even after tBoBWB if it wasn't for the RW). And yeah, if the Tyrell alliance doesn't happen straight off, but Tywin does beat Renly, Tywin is still in a very tricky position and is going to have to amass allies before picking on Robb again.

[Naathi Prince]

If Tywin and Renly's armies have to face off, I just don't see any way either of them could have taken on Robb afterwards. If you have 8,000 men defending Harrenhal and Riverrun, strong garrisons on the other riverlands castles, and the neck and moat cailin...what are either of them going to do? Any castle they take in the riverlands will come at a huge cost to their host, and Harrenhal and Riverrun, unless both are besieged simultaneously which I doubt either force would be able to do, can cause absolute havoc on supply lines.

[Frey Pie]

If Tywin and Renly's armies have to face off, I just don't see any way either of them could have taken on Robb afterwards. If you have 8,000 men defending Harrenhal and Riverrun, strong garrisons on the other riverlands castles, and the neck and moat cailin...what are either of them going to do? Any castle they take in the riverlands will come at a huge cost to their host, and Harrenhal and Riverrun, unless both are besieged simultaneously which I doubt either force would be able to do, can cause absolute havoc on supply lines.

Excellent point. As an aside everyone thinks the Riverlands is bereft of men but i dont see it. They havnt lost many men since the Battle of the Fords. The RW was mostly Northerners dieing so the bones of 15000-20000should be attainable for such a populous country

[Naathi Prince]

Excellent point. As an aside everyone thinks the Riverlands is bereft of men but i dont see it. They havnt lost many men since the Battle of the Fords. The RW was mostly Northerners dieing so the bones of 15000-20000should be attainable for such a populous country

I think the Riverlands can easily raise that many men, but not in one host because they don't have a good border like the Gates of the Moon, Golden Tooth, or Moat Cailin/The Neck.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Edmure didn't engage in an offensive battle, he tried to hold the fords over one of the forks of the Trident to prevent Tywin's passage through Tully lands.

I think 'hold RR' is pretty much vague enough to cover what Edmure did. There are ,after all, many ways to hold a castle. On other threads many seem convinced the only way for Jon to hold Castle Black is to attack WF (although this may not be true).

And Edmure is in charge of defensive operations around RR until Robb gets back so he can dispose of troops as he pleases.

I think Robb and the Blackfish were arrogant and didn't full confide their plans in Edmure, and then shoveled the blame on him when it all went wrong.

Well Castle Black is hardly a castle, and completely indefensible, it certainly is not justifyable for Jon to march to Winterfell, however the way I see it he is allow (perhaps even compelled) to attack any armies entering the Gift with intent to do the Night's Watch harm. Jon marching to Winterfell is no doubt oathbreaking, Jon marching out of Castle Black to meet Ramsey somewhere in the gift (assuming the Pink letter is genuine, which is probably isn't) is not oathbreaking (though Marsh and Yarwyck may not see it that way).

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

If tywin faced renlys 80,000 he MIGHT have won. If he did his casualties would have been high, it is true the winning side usually takes very little deaths becaus most die when they run. But aginst 80,000(an impossible number for these times) I think tywins casualties would be high. Remeber tywins army has seen action already and been engaged in a few battles and forced marches, I would put tywins numbers at 15,000. Him pulling off a victory against 80,000 would cement him as a tactical genius. So if tywin wins he might be able to gather some more strength but he is not going after robb anytime soon. If renly wins he would most likely have the strength to face robb, but if he puts anyone other then randyl in charge he is in for a rude awakening. I could see renly giving the command to loras becaus he favors him witch could end in disaster. So if tywin goes up against renly no matter who wins robb is better off, remeber he has to go back north to boot out the ironborn, once robb gets north he is untouchable short of a faceless man. I belive in credit were it is due, we know robb and tywin say what you will about either of them are at least above average on the battlefield. So the war between them would come down to whoever gets the most support, and luck. Imo they are evenly matched, but given time robb would have surpassed him.

80,000 is certainly not an impossible number for the middle ages. It's hard to get exact numbers due to most medieval sources only mention mounted warriors; infantry was generally not considered worth mentioning, particularly in France, where there was a strong culture of chivalry. But there were several occasions where numbers of men in the high 10,000s were marshalled. In fact before the battle of Crecy the King of France dismissed 20,000 infantrymen because they were too hard to feed and were seen as unnecessary.

Plus in westeros single political entities don't seem to operate more than 2 or so armies, whereas in real life, a king might have five or six smaller hosts plus a fleet and garrisons for Towns, cities and castles.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Furthermore I find it fascinating how you can critiscise robbs victories for being based on suprise yet at the same time praise tywins victories that are all based on numerical superiority. At least suprise takes some skill. Tywin has never won a battle were he has not outnumbered the enemy by alot.

I would also point to Roose Bolton's completely inept command at the Battle of the Green Fork, and the Battle of the Blackwater (nonsensically) being a surprise attack on the part of the Lannisters.

The only Battle he had a realistic chance of actually losing was the Battle of the Fords, and though I think he would have won eventually, he would have lost thousands of men, horses and damaged his armies morale massively in the process.

The Westerlands reading points to 1 pitched battle in the Reyne rebellion, but Tywin outnumber the Reynes 4-1.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Why is Edmure not held to a certain standard of making sound military decisions? Tyrion Lannister figured out that the reason his father was staying in Harrenhall was so he could save Kings' Landing if it was attacked by Stannis or Renly, and he figured that out without recieving any battle plans from his father . Why could Edmure not look at a map and figure that out ? probably because all he was thinking about was redeeming himself from earlier failures .

No, it was because he saw an army preparing to take his king in the rear, outnumbering him nearly 4-1, a fair assumption, Robb must have realised getting too close to Tywin's army would have been very risky, Edmure knew that too, but he had no idea it was a risk Robb was prepared to take.

Tyrion is exceptionally good at figuring out peoples real intentions, even when he isn't told, neither Edmure, nor Mallister, Bracken, or Blackwood figured it out. It is completely unfair to blame Edmure.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

I don't think Robb's men wear much plate. Mail seems to be much more common. Besides, crossbow bolts can certainly pierce both.

Moreover though, why would Tywin be forced to attack? Explain that to me. As long as Robb is in a bog, he can't do any plundering, and Tywin's strength grows for every day he spends in his home country. If Robb tries to withdraw to start looting again, he'll get bogged down the same way Tywin was supposed to be, and slaughtered.

Or if he miraculously should break free without having to fight, would eventually be forced to battle Tywin on a normal field anyway.

I think most of them do wear plate, westeros seems to have fairly late medieval armour. If you want to defeat heavy cavalry aim for the horses: there is no precise description but the impression that I get is that Westerosi Horse armour is limited.

I'd pick Longbow over crossbow for dealing with armoured men, since you have better range (crossbow bolts are shorter than arrows, so aren't stable over distance) and much better rate of fire.

I don't really think Tywin could have recruited many more useful men, he was already down to the "dregs of Lannisport". Not that he particularly needed them, without surprise; which is unlikely, Robb's 5-6,000 horse has almost no chance of defeating Tywin's 7,000 horse and 12,000 infantry (assuming Edmure leaves him completely unbloodied).

[aryagonnakill#2]

Any experienced military commander is familiar with the concept of defense in depth, you don't use 1 line of defense, ie a castle wall, you use as many as you can, and Edmures first line of defense was the fords. If he had all the info we the readers have than obviously he would have let Tywin threw, but with the info he had he made the right move. Edmure had absolutely no way of knowing Stannis's plans and movements.