Why does everybody think that Aegon is fake?

[Maester Tormund]

Lost Baratheon have you read the Dunk and Egg stories? I did believe he was real until after I read Dunk and Egg, and reread aDwD. While I have no real arguement against him being real as I use to use them myself, but when I reread aDwD, when JC was looking at YG, he just looked too much like a Targaryen. His mother is from Dorne, most of the Targ-Martell kids had flaws. One had dark hair, another had dark streaks thru his hair, another had the wrong color eyes, and yet YG is the perfect Targ.

As I said at the begging of the thread, I don't know that we will ever know, and I don't think it matters. The only thing that matters is what Dany thinks.

Edit to add: LothorAppleEater, oprahnoodlemantra, Grizzy Mormont, King for the North, welcome to the forums

I'm reading the Dunk and Egg novellas right now, but "looking to much" like a Targ isn't necessarily true of all Targ/Martell kids. Baelor Breakspear had dark hair, dark eyes, and looked very un-Targ like while his brother Maekar looks a full blooded Targ.

Also regardless of whether hes a Targ, a Blackfyre, or some random kid from Lys with dark eyes his claim to the throne can only be taken through force. the Targs lost the throne 15-16 years ago, so they have no "claim" to it. Like someone said earlier what matters is what Dany thinks, as well as what others think such as Dorne.

[Im no Ser]

A young boy speaks to him, how did he do that if he has no tongue?

He doesn't. The message is verbally passed to Kevan by one of the three novice septas attending on Queen Cersei ("the dark haired [one] with the chubby face", FWIW). The messenger boy himself doesn't say a word. Neither does the girl that opens the door to Pycelle's chamber, or any of the other children in the room.

I'm assuming then that Varys taught them how to write, and he taught them how to write in the Common Tongue? Varys is a lot smarter than that, hell Cat and Lysa were smarter than that when they were little girls. If he ripped their tongues out and then taught them to write you don't think he made up a code? These aren't little lordlings and little ladies that have had a septa and a maester to teach them how to write, these are poor orphans scooped up off the streets.

They aren't orphans from the slums of King's Landing. They're literate slaves procured by Ilyrio, with their tounges removed:

..."I must have gold, and another fifty birds."

[Arya] let them get a long way ahead, then went creeping after them. Quiet as a shadow.

"So Many? The voices were fainter as the light dwindled ahead of her. "The ones you need are hard to find...so young, to know their letters...perhaps older...not die so easy..."

"No. The younger ones are safer...treat them gently..."

"...if they kept their tounges..."

"...the risk..."

- Game of Thrones, ch 32

The birds have to be literate in Westerosi common. One of their two primary functions is to steal (if not actually copy) letters - they need to be able to recognise which letter is Tywin's troop deployments and which one is his laundry list. A cipher doesn't get this done. That's why Ilyrio and Varys purchase - at an expense and diffculty level high enough to make a man with Ilyrio's resources complain - slave children that can already read.

Well that seems a little crazy to stay in character for no reason and maintain a lie for no reason all the time, hes a master at deception he doesn't need to remind himself to lie.

Well, as others have noted there are three reasons:

1) The birds are there, and I don't believe they are the winners of the Varys scholarship fund. Varys doesn't unnecessarily give out details.

2) The white raven is there, and perhaps Varys suspects someone is warging it.

3) I'll let Littlefinger explain 3:

"Even when we are alone?"

"Especially when we are alone. Elsewise a day will come when a servant walks into a room unannounced, or a guardsman at the door chances to hear something he should not."

- Feast For Crows, ch 10

[Maester Tormund]

3) I'll let Littlefinger explain 3:

I've already stated why Littlefinger is so adamant to Sansa about staying in character.

Also as someone else said, Varys trusts the children enough to see him murder two council members and to know where he would be hiding. If he gets locked away that'll really through a wrench in all of his plans because you know they won't put him in down in the dungeons, they'll kill him immediately.

ETA why would Varys suspect someone is warging the white raven? Its there symbolically, winter is coming.

[Im no Ser]

I've already stated why Littlefinger is so adamant to Sansa about staying in character.

I read it. I am suggesting that Littlefinger knows more about lying than you and I do, and that he, as an expert, has proferred a reason why every good liar should keep the lie up at all times.

Also as someone else said, Varys trusts the children enough to see him murder two council members and to know where he would be hiding.

Who knows what's going on with those kids aside from their horrific origins and early deaths? We don't even know for sure if those particular kids will ever leave that room alive, or drugged, or bewitched, or whatever other system Varys has in place to control them.

We do know they don't tend to live too long. My guess has always been that Varys kills them when they are captured or have enough information that he considers them dangerous: his failsafe is that when they're caught they are always in a place he has quick and secret access to.

ETA why would Varys suspect someone is warging the white raven? Its there symbolically, winter is coming.

I don't think it is likely the raven is warged, and if it was I don't think it likely that Varys knows about it. That said, birds have been warged in this series, and underestimating Varys' scope of knowledge has been a sucker's bet so far in this series.

[sumant30]

I think danny will definitely accept a young aegon because she is not power hungry from whatever we have seen from her so far.

[Black Wolf Smith]

Also regardless of whether hes a Targ, a Blackfyre, or some random kid from Lys with dark eyes his claim to the throne can only be taken through force. the Targs lost the throne 15-16 years ago, so they have no "claim" to it. Like someone said earlier what matters is what Dany thinks, as well as what others think such as Dorne.

As I said I have no real reason, but IMO he looks too much like the perfect Targ. He could be a Blackfyre, Rivers, Rivers, or Seastar( or a Rivers/Seastar) or truely the son of Rhaegar. I also said earlier in the thread that I don't think any of it matters, we may never know if he is real. The only things that matter or what Dany thinks. If she falls for him, or believes him then he is fine, and if not he will die.

[Tini]

We do know they don't tend to live too long. My guess has always been that Varys kills them when they are captured or have enough information that he considers them dangerous: his failsafe is that when they're caught they are always in a place he has quick and secret access to.

Or Varys kills them when they grow too old. They grow in understanding as they grow up. They might realize that Varys will kill them, might try to run away. They might encourage the younger children to rebel. Varys will kill them for the same reason he doesn't want to take older children.

The children may need to be able to read and write Westerosi common tongue but I am not sure that they are required to understand it. Just enough to identify certain names and phrases, to copy letters. In which case Varys might decide to get rid of them when they become too fluent in the common tongue.

[sumant30]

As I said I have no real reason, but IMO he looks too much like the perfect Targ. He could be a Blackfyre, Rivers, Rivers, or Seastar( or a Rivers/Seastar) or truely the son of Rhaegar. I also said earlier in the thread that I don't think any of it matters, we may never know if he is real. The only things that matter or what Dany thinks. If she falls for him, or believes him then he is fine, and if not he will die.

I think it is not only about danny but also about dorne, because dorne will definitely stan behind any targ.

[Maester Tormund]

I think it is not only about danny but also about dorne, because dorne will definitely stan behind any targ.

And isn't Arianna on her way to meet Aegon?

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Prince Doran aparently said to his daughter to "gather any informations on this Aegon". And she does carry ravens with her.

Doran has by now realised he get screwed by Varys big time. Tehre will be some nice chat in TWOW.

[sumant30]

And isn't Arianna on her way to meet Aegon?

Ya exactly from her POV we can definitely learn more about aegon.

[Miriamele]

The children may need to be able to read and write Westerosi common tongue but I am not sure that they are required to understand it. Just enough to identify certain names and phrases, to copy letters. In which case Varys might decide to get rid of them when they become too fluent in the common tongue.

That might be it. I've always wondered what was the point to remove their tongues if they could write. I mean all Varys's enemies are literate and the kids might write messages to them. Or confess in writing (if their captors realize they can write and provide them with paper, etc), and a mute can also answer questions and provide information as we saw with the guy who told Manderly that Bran and Rickon were alive.

[The Hungry W0lf]

Aegon is the Mummers Dragon. Vary's is the mummer in question. He was part a mummer troupe before he was sold to the guy who made him a eunuch.

Quentyn is clearly the Sun's Son.

I had a theory on the mummers dragon being Jon "Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman's name" If the woman's name was Lyana then then maybe the mummers dragon is snow if R+L=J

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Why would Jon Snow would be a mummer's dragon?

He has been raised as a wolf. That's the whole point of his story. He's basically a Stark, even if not by name.

If he's a puppet, he's a mummer's wolf.

[Free Man]

Ok, a lot of people question my reasoning of why Aegon is real due to someone recognizing the baby - namely Pycelle...

Well - lets put it this way - you are sworn to serve the king - he is slaughtered, and there is a dead baby which everyone thinks is the heir - would you say - It is not him, its a trick, go kill the real heir???

Or, would you say, yes, he is?

Maester Lewin KNEW that the dead boys were not Bran and Rickon - did he tell anyone? No! Because he would put their lives at danger if he did.

People seem to forget that loyalty is not that easily switched unless you are a complete douchebag. I would even dare say that once Aegon comes, Littlefinger might actually help him out to win the throne. I do believe that Pycelle, Varys and Littlefinger are still very much loyal to Targaeryans. Swearing fealty to Robert was a think everyone would have done to stay alive (if someone imprisons you and gives you a choice - follow my liege or believe in my god or die, what would you do? Stay alive, and live to fight another day.

[sumant30]

I do believe that Pycelle, Varys and Littlefinger are still very much loyal to Targaeryans.

Pycelle was always loyal to lannisters.LF is loyal to no one but LF.Regarding varys you can say until now he is loyal to targs.

[Free Man]

Pycelle was always loyal to lannisters.LF is loyal to no one but LF.Regarding varys you can say until now he is loyal to targs.

I think Pycelle is an old man, and very much affraid. He is not a fighter, and he does what he can to prove he is a loyal subject. Like Master Lewin, he continued serving the lord of the castle, in my opinion.

Varys never said he was a loyal Targ (unless to Kevan when he dies), the only strange thing here being his botched attempt to kill Danaerys (assuming Aegon was real, killing her would make everyone blissfully unaware of any Targ pretender.

LF - he is just too snake-like for me to be able to read through him, but he DOES have his motives. And there will most likely be further surprises in the books, even if its a U-turn on LF. He is what he is because the Targaeryens made him what he is, he owes everything to them

[sumant30]

I think Pycelle is an old man, and very much affraid. He is not a fighter, and he does what he can to prove he is a loyal subject. Like Master Lewin, he continued serving the lord of the castle, in my opinion.

Varys never said he was a loyal Targ (unless to Kevan when he dies), the only strange thing here being his botched attempt to kill Danaerys (assuming Aegon was real, killing her would make everyone blissfully unaware of any Targ pretender.

LF - he is just too snake-like for me to be able to read through him, but he DOES have his motives. And there will most likely be further surprises in the books, even if its a U-turn on LF. He is what he is because the Targaeryens made him what he is, he owes everything to them

Pycelle served for the lannister from the start because when tyrion caught him for betraying him to cersi he clearly mentioned his motives of how he was serving lord tywin.

Regarding varys he had jorah mormont following danny everywhere so even when they ordered for danny to be killed,jorah knew as to who was serving the poisonous wine.

LF owed everything not to targs but to lysa as she was the one who suggested he be appointed under jon arryn for some work and seeing his good work jon arryn made him master of coin when he was the hand.

[aryagonnakill]

I think Pycelle is an old man, and very much affraid. He is not a fighter, and he does what he can to prove he is a loyal subject. Like Master Lewin, he continued serving the lord of the castle, in my opinion.

Varys never said he was a loyal Targ (unless to Kevan when he dies), the only strange thing here being his botched attempt to kill Danaerys (assuming Aegon was real, killing her would make everyone blissfully unaware of any Targ pretender.

LF - he is just too snake-like for me to be able to read through him, but he DOES have his motives. And there will most likely be further surprises in the books, even if its a U-turn on LF. He is what he is because the Targaeryens made him what he is, he owes everything to them

Littlefinger did not get promoted until Robert was King. Pycell betrayed Aegon to Tywin when he told him to open the gates of Kings Landing even tho Varys knew it was obviously a trick.

[Michael Jon Snow]

For me, Aegon being fake resolves a lot of Vary's motivation inconsistencies that I saw. Aegon being fake makes everything else make sense.

YMMV