[Sample] Arianne I

[Free Northman]

Interesting chapter.

To me it is quite obvious what Martin is laying the groundwork for as far as Arriane’s role in the greater plot is concerned. Arriane’s musings on Daenerys and Viserys, combined with Daemon’s open doubt about Aegon’s authenticity makes it quite clear.

The current situation is that Doran is married to the Daenerys plan, and Dorne pretty much suspects that Aegon is a fake, but the catalyst to change was Doran’s (foolish?) decision to pick Arriane as the head of his delegation – and what’s even worse, to give her absolute power over Dorne’s way forward (“War” to hold back, and “Dragons” to join Aegon).

Now, as to Arriane’s state of mind:

We see that Arriane feels guilty for not really caring about Quentyn, while at the same time hinting that she is in a similar situation to Daenerys who would have just been a horselord’s concubine for the rest of her life if Viserys had lived. The parallel she is hinting at is that she is in the role of Daenerys and Quentyn in the role of Viserys.

Hence, this sets the scene quite neatly to solve the following problems for Martin:

He needs Dorne to join Aegon for Aegon to be a realistic threat to the realm.

He wants to continue building the evidence for Aegon being a fake.

He needs Doran to put aside his caution and go for the rather reckless plan of joining Aegon.

He needs Arriane’s back story to make this course of events believable.

So, we can see now how it is all going to play out. When Arriane meets Aegon, she will be convinced by Daemon and others that he is in fact a fake. However, she will then learn of Quentyn’s fate. This will cause a conflict of emotions in Arriane, and the conclusion she will reach is that she must marry Aegon to supposedly avenge her brother and still keep her father’s plans alive.

In her own mind this will look like the perfect plan, as it will appear to be a way to atone for her previous sins while at the same time supposedly avenging Quentyn’s death. However, what it will truly achieve, is that it will satisfy her own pride in that she will now be the future Queen of the Realm, and this is the clear parallel to Daenerys no longer having to be of secondary importance for the rest of her life should Viserys have lived.

And did I forget to mention that it feeds into Arriane’s love of pretty boys?

Thus Martin will have created a perfect motivation for Arriane to marry Aegon, as it serves her purpose in all the ways mentioned above. To her it will absolutely be the right thing to do. At the same time, it does not require a belief in Aegon's authenticity - on which Martin is casting doubt at every possible opportunity, it would seem.

As a side note, it is amazing that she has all the power of Dorne concentrated in her simple message of “War” or “Dragons”, but it seems that the end result of her vain escapades in Feast is that it succeeded in manipulating Doran – probably through guilt – into his first foolish action after 15 years of caution.

In the end, Martin achieves his goal – Dorne drawn into the war on Aegon’s side, and sets the scene for the 2^nd Dance of the Dragons once Daenerys returns.

[Free Northman]

I was disappointed that despite referring to the two armies camped in the Boneway and the Prince's Pass on multiple occasions, Martin never got around to mentioning the numbers of actual men in the Dornish armies.

I suspect we're talking around 20k men - 10k in each of the armies. Thus taking Aegon's power from 10k up to 30k once Dorne joins the Golden Company.

That will make him a credible threat, but still not really a match for the Tyrell hordes.

EDIT:

If some of the Stormlords join him, that may give him another 10k men or so, taking him to 40k. If the Tyrell forces are then split between the issues in King's Landing, dealing with the Ironborn and Aegon, it will probably give him the ability to best them in the far South. But to take King's Landing itself, well, that's going to be a tough ask with 30-40k men against the entire realm.

[DaveRoid]

I sense another big misunderstanding is on the horizon. :thumbsdown:

What else do you expect? not everyone had access to internet treenet back then.

Good chapter and a good read!

[Kanon]

What else do you expect? not everyone had access to internet treenet back then.

Good chapter and a good read!

Its like Cat kidnapping Tyrion all over again :eek:

[Bastard of Godsgrace]

Very interesting.

It is nice to know what happened to Aurane Waters. We can now remove one position from the long list of missing characters. But Euron, Blackfish, Edric Dayne, Hal Mullen, Maege Mormont, Alliser Thorne and some others I can't remember at the moment still remain.

The prophetic dream does suggest we may see dragon fighting dragon after all, while title A Dance with Dragons, as opposed to a dance of dragons, suggested otherwise. We will have to wait and see.

Elia is really cool. The three oldest Sand Snakes were rather disappoinng as characters, but Sarella and Elia both make up for it.

It also seems Darkstar is more dangerous than he seemed. I believed he is a poseur and at best a mediocre fighter, but it apparently isn't so.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I was disappointed that despite referring to the two armies camped in the Boneway and the Prince's Pass on multiple occasions, Martin never got around to mentioning the numbers of actual men in the Dornish armies.

I suspect we're talking around 20k men - 10k in each of the armies. Thus taking Aegon's power from 10k up to 30k once Dorne joins the Golden Company.

That will make him a credible threat, but still not really a match for the Tyrell hordes.

EDIT:

If some of the Stormlords join him, that may give him another 10k men or so, taking him to 40k. If the Tyrell forces are then split between the issues in King's Landing, dealing with the Ironborn and Aegon, it will probably give him the ability to best them in the far South. But to take King's Landing itself, well, that's going to be a tough ask with 30-40k men against the entire realm.

This has vexed me as well, but I have tried to work out the numbers as best I can. The numbers for Dorne and the Iron Islands are being hidden like gold.

I put the Dornish strength at around 30-35k. Doran is cautious and will not want to leave Dorne totally undefended. Lets say he pulls a Mace Tyrell and keeps 10,000 men back near Sunspear. I will presume a host of 10k and one of 12-15k. I think Lord Yronwood would maintain the larger host. At least we know that the Dornish commanders are Lords Fowler and Yronwood.

The Golden Company is even more ruthlessly efficient than I thought. Combining this chapter with the previous Arianne chapter, we know that they control two-thirds of the Stormlands and half the Stepstoens, with only the Marches remaining. The Marches are the key as they likely hold the remaining strength of the region. From the HK, we know that House Dondarion can field at least 4800 men. And this was close to 90 years ago, so they can likely field more due to population growth. If presume houses Caron and Swann can field similar strength. Lord Swann kept his banners at home and sent one son to KL and the other to Renly. Lord Caron went to war but as "The Lord of the Marches," likely kept his strength back to hold the border with the Reach and Dorne. His bastard brother is still holding the lands for Stannis. We have no idea who is running house Dondarion (likely a relative of Lord Beric). There is no love for the Lannisters and Tyrells, so I suspect they will join Aegon and consolidate the Stormlands. I suspect an additional 12-15k men.

I believe Laswell Peake in that Aegon has loyal houses in the Reach (one of the most pro-Targaryen kingdoms). I suspect at least another 5-10k men at the outset. I think half the Reach could defect as the war progresses. It will depend of major bannermen like the Hightowers (my personal favorite), Rowans, Oakhearts and Tarlys.

This will put Aegon's strength at about 50-55k. Throw in Aurane Waters (who I think is working with Varys) and Aegon is in serous business.

The Tyrell army in KL numbered about 70k in ASOS. This army was split three ways b/t Mace, Lord Randyll and Garlan. Mace and Randyll returned to KL w/ about 50k men in my estimation. I think Mace sent about 20k men to the Stormlands. We know Connington is preparing a nice little surprise for them. Not sure if the GC will be at full strength by the time they get there. If Connington is successful (which I think he will be) all of the aforementioned powers will flock to Aegon's banner at Storm's End.

Mace Tyrell will still have plenty of men to hold KL, but we know he is an incompetent commaner (unless Tarly is with him). The Redwyne fleet is on the way to fight the iron born and Willas and Garlan are sending troops to man the fleet, so there will be no one to oppose Waters at sea and no reinforcements for Mace. Through in Varys causing havoc in KL (I can see the faith defecting) and Aegon in all likely hood will be sitting the iron throne by the end of TWOW.

EDIT:

The Lannisters are done. They have only a few hundred troops remaining in KL and no leadership (discount Cersie). Their main force has dispersed and returned to the West. It will take too long to reform and get to KL in time to do any damage.

[Free Northman]

This has vexed me as well, but I have tried to work out the numbers as best I can. The numbers for Dorne and the Iron Islands are being hidden like gold.

I put the Dornish strength at around 30-35k. Doran is cautious and will not want to leave Dorne totally undefended. Lets say he pulls a Mace Tyrell and keeps 10,000 men back near Sunspear. I will presume a host of 10k and one of 12-15k. I think Lord Yronwood would maintain the larger host. At least we know that the Dornish commanders are Lords Fowler and Yronwood.

The Golden Company is even more ruthlessly efficient than I thought. Combining this chapter with the previous Arianne chapter, we know that they control two-thirds of the Stormlands and half the Stepstoens, with only the Marches remaining. The Marches are the key as they likely hold the remaining strength of the region. From the HK, we know that House Dondarion can field at least 4800 men. And this was close to 90 years ago, so they can likely field more due to population growth. If presume houses Caron and Swann can field similar strength. Lord Swann kept his banners at home and sent one son to KL and the other to Renly. Lord Caron went to war but as "The Lord of the Marches," likely kept his strength back to hold the border with the Reach and Dorne. His bastard brother is still holding the lands for Stannis. We have no idea who is running house Dondarion (likely a relative of Lord Beric). There is no love for the Lannisters and Tyrells, so I suspect they will join Aegon and consolidate the Stormlands. I suspect an additional 12-15k men.

I believe Laswell Peake in that Aegon has loyal houses in the Reach (one of the most pro-Targaryen kingdoms). I suspect at least another 5-10k men at the outset. I think half the Reach could defect as the war progresses. It will depend of major bannermen like the Hightowers (my personal favorite), Rowans, Oakhearts and Tarlys.

This will put Aegon's strength at about 50-55k. Throw in Aurane Waters (who I think is working with Varys) and Aegon is in serous business.

The Tyrell army in KL numbered about 70k in ASOS. This army was split three ways b/t Mace, Lord Randyll and Garlan. Mace and Randyll returned to KL w/ about 50k men in my estimation. I think Mace sent about 20k men to the Stormlands. We know Connington is preparing a nice little surprise for them. Not sure if the GC will be at full strength by the time they get there. If Connington is successful (which I think he will be) all of the aforementioned powers will flock to Aegon's banner at Storm's End.

Mace Tyrell will still have plenty of men to hold KL, but we know he is an incompetent commaner (unless Tarly is with him). The Redwyne fleet is on the way to fight the iron born and Willas and Garlan are sending troops to man the fleet, so there will be no one to oppose Waters at sea and no reinforcements for Mace. Through in Varys causing havoc in KL (I can see the faith defecting) and Aegon in all likely hood will be sitting the iron throne by the end of TWOW.

Are you assuming that all the Stormlords will join Aegon? I wouldn't be so optimistic. More like 10k, which is about a third of the Stormland's total strength at the start of the series, I would guess. I'm not sure how much is left, and whether a House would automatically join Aegon just because he has captured its keep.

[Ice Turtle]

Butterbumps suggests that perhaps Patchface's "shadows come to dance, my lord" refers to the second Dance of the Dragons (dragons being described as shadows from above), and not what most people think it does, Renly's death.

[off topic]

“Shadows.” The world seemed darker when he (Jon) said it.

The wildling rubbed his mouth. “Not here,” he mumbled, “not this side o’ your Wall.” The old man glanced uneasily toward the trees in their white mantles. “They’re never far, you know. They won’t come out by day, not when that old sun’s shining, but don’t think that means they went away. Shadows never go away. Might be you don’t see them, but they’re always clinging to your heels.”

I always thought it refereed to Others, and it continues with even more ominous: “The shadows come to stay, my lord, stay my lord, stay my lord.”[/off topic]

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Are you assuming that all the Stormlords will join Aegon? I wouldn't be so optimistic. More like 10k, which is about a third of the Stormland's total strength at the start of the series, I would guess. I'm not sure how much is left, and whether a House would automatically join Aegon just because he has captured its keep.

I'm banking on the Marcher Lords. House Swann stayed back on the orders of Lord Swann. House Dondarrion likely stayed back b/c of Lord Beric. We just don't know who is leading the house at the moment. Rolland Storm is still in rebellion and claiming lordship of the Marches. This is one-third of the Stormlands that is untouched by war. As I said, if Connington is successful against the coming the Reach army, I think they will flock to his banner at Storm's End. These lords will need to see a major victory for them to believe he can take the realm. As to the remaining Stormland houses, I think they can be won over as well. Connington is known and has been very merciful. He also is likely to have many Highborn hostages by now.

[Lady Sansa Stark]

Had to read it as soon as I saw it on Twitter last night.

Finally, the dancing Dragons. When the Dragons Danced, people died. Aegon and Daenerys, anyone?

[Crown]

My excitement for The Winds of Winter reached a whole new level. Jesus fucking Christ, GRRM, hurry up!

I don't have anything substantial to add to the discussion that hasn't been said a hundred times already, but damn, this was good! It's been a while since I read Dance, back in March last year, and this chapter sucked me right back in to the story again. Incredible writing, if I may say so.

I fear for Davos' family. Could JonCon, assuming he knows about them and has them as hostages, use them to turn Davos against Stannis? Would Davos choose his family over his king? :(

[Katsa]

Hence, this sets the scene quite neatly to solve the following problems for Martin:

He needs Dorne to join Aegon for Aegon to be a realistic threat to the realm.

He wants to continue building the evidence for Aegon being a fake.

He needs Doran to put aside his caution and go for the rather reckless plan of joining Aegon.

He needs Arriane’s back story to make this course of events believable.

So, we can see now how it is all going to play out. When Arriane meets Aegon, she will be convinced by Daemon and others that he is in fact a fake. However, she will then learn of Quentyn’s fate. This will cause a conflict of emotions in Arriane, and the conclusion she will reach is that she must marry Aegon to supposedly avenge her brother and still keep her father’s plans alive.

In her own mind this will look like the perfect plan, as it will appear to be a way to atone for her previous sins while at the same time supposedly avenging Quentyn’s death. However, what it will truly achieve, is that it will satisfy her own pride in that she will now be the future Queen of the Realm, and this is the clear parallel to Daenerys no longer having to be of secondary importance for the rest of her life should Viserys have lived.

And did I forget to mention that it feeds into Arriane’s love of pretty boys?

Thus Martin will have created a perfect motivation for Arriane to marry Aegon, as it serves her purpose in all the ways mentioned above. To her it will absolutely be the right thing to do. At the same time, it does not require a belief in Aegon's authenticity - on which Martin is casting doubt at every possible opportunity, it would seem.

As a side note, it is amazing that she has all the power of Dorne concentrated in her simple message of “War” or “Dragons”, but it seems that the end result of her vain escapades in Feast is that it succeeded in manipulating Doran – probably through guilt – into his first foolish action after 15 years of caution.

In the end, Martin achieves his goal – Dorne drawn into the war on Aegon’s side, and sets the scene for the 2^nd Dance of the Dragons once Daenerys returns.

Nicely put, sir! More or less what I had in mind.

Finally, the dancing Dragons. When the Dragons Danced, people died. Aegon and Daenerys, anyone?

Unfortunately, my lady, I fear that it is the common folk that will suffer once again.

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

does anyone here think Teora has greensight?

[Ice Turtle]

I'm glad that we have new material for speculation, but I liked the Theon one more. Does anyone know if it is still possible to find the Theon sample chapter somewhere for eventual future reread?

more to the point.

-Elia Sand is Elia and Lyanna put together, and it will be very relevant for plot because those are the two women Jon Connington hated the most, almost as much as he hates disobedience, safe to say those two won't get along and if Aegon was to become too interested in her I can see him killing her, truth to be told I don't see happy future for Elia, she is too much of a summer child. But if nothing else few people will probably finally put together the story about the knight of Laughing tree

- The best part of the Toland strength is with Lord Yronwood in the Boneway. Who will defend Ghost Hill if these strangers land upon our shores? Heh, reading that my inner thoughts were, sounds bad, sounds bad, sounds bad. Something really bad is going to happen there, my money are on Euron's men capturing them and selling them to slavery. Though he would keep the younger girl if he knew about the dreams

- "It is time for my little snakes to scatter, the better to survive the carnage." this seems as opposite from the Stark approach

- Ghost Hill - this reminded me strongly of little old lady called Ghost living on a hill, oh yeah and she too had prophetic dreams. Teora clearly has some foretelling ability, it could come from Targ blood, and no I don't think she is a secret Targ, but any noble from Dorne is likely to have Targ blood because Martells have it and great houses' most often marry with nobility of their region

- I don't think Arianne will ever make good ruler, she become better but that is only because before she was really awful

- Who would send his heir who herself doesn't have martial skills on an important mission in such dangerous times with only two young (most probably unexperienced) knights, three children and her ex?! And the answer is: Doran Martell. I almost wish to see this party traveling trough Riverlands, though it would probably not make for a pretty picture. But seriously is Doran trying to kill his two older children?

- So what do you think, is Aegon Arianne's type, I think not, she is more attracted to bad boys (she really seems to share taste in men with Dany) but this doesn't mean she won't try to seduce him.

[Katsa]

-Elia Sand is Elia and Lyanna put together, and it will be very relevant for plot because those are the two women Jon Connington hated the most, almost as much as he hates disobedience, safe to say those two won't get along and if Aegon was to become too interested in her I can see him killing her, truth to be told I don't see happy future for Elia, she is too much of a summer child. But if nothing else few people will probably finally put together the story about the knight of Laughing tree

I did see Elia Sand as the Dornish version of Lyanna Stark but stopped there. Didn't think about the identity of the KoTL, though. Now that's something to think about...

So what do you think, is Aegon Arianne's type, I think not, she is more attracted to bad boys (she really seems to share taste in men with Dany) but this doesn't mean she won't try to seduce him.

Young Griff/Aegon didn't come across as a bad boy type to me. Perhaps she'll try seducing him after finding out about Quentyn. I think she might try Jon Connington first, though.

[Free Northman]

On the Darkstar topic, I never understood the immense disdain so many boarders seemed to have for this guy. And from comments in interviews, I seem to recall Martin was also quite taken aback by the negative reaction to Gerold Dayne.

People love Jaime Lannister, who threw a helpless boy from a window, but hate Gerold Dayne for doing pretty much the same thing.

The guy is a villain, quite clearly, but at least he is a cool villain. Dark, mysterious, deadly and unpredictable. I've always looked forward to reading more of him.

As for Hotah - his chapters read almost like one long epitath. Morose, fatalistic, filled with weariness and resignation. I expect his long service to come to an end when facing the most dangerous man in Dorne.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

On the Darkstar topic, I never understood the immense disdain so many boarders seemed to have for this guy. And from comments in interviews, I seem to recall Martin was also quite taken aback by the negative reaction to Gerold Dayne.

People love Jaime Lannister, who threw a helpless boy from a window, but hate Gerold Dayne for doing pretty much the same thing.

The guy is a villain, quite clearly, but at least he is a cool villain. Dark, mysterious, deadly and unpredictable. I've always looked forward to reading more of him.

As for Hotah - his chapters read almost like one long epitath. Morose, fatalistic, filled with weariness and resignation. I expect his long service to come to an end when facing the most dangerous man in Dorne.

I hope you're wrong. Areo is the Doran's strong right arm. Losing him would be too costly. I like Ser Balon but he will not be as missed, and I doubt GRRM will kill Obara.

[Volantis]

I'm so down with this ship already.

No chance. JonCon, if he is gay, was only ever in love with one man

[The BlackBear]

I like the new Arianne. Love the classic Martin complexity, with the attitude towards Dany. Also am I missing something about Waters? Why all the love? I think it'd be a amusing twist, if it turned out the lord of the waters was some ambitious underling, who lead a mutiny and took the title from Waters, cos it sounded 'cool'.

[Cruella]

There was just feeling of "trying too hard" with GRRM's description of Darkstar. Now that he's aware of reaction, I expect a lot of characters to go "jobbing" for him, including Hotah.

JonCon is gay but he has greyscale, so... I wish we had a gay character who wasn't dead or some kind of out of playing field cripple.