Is Mel really as wrong as often as everyone here thinks?

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

I do really wish she'd thought about the sword in her POV chapters.

I wanted to know why she bothered with it, if it has some magical properties, or if it was just a glamour.

I lean towards it being just a glamour, but I wanted to know for sure.

Or if she thinks it can become the True Lightbringer.

And if she's deluded and wrong, that's still not LYING.

If she's lying it's only to herself.

And projecting those lies outward. It is glamor, she tells Jon that it is, like her tricks with the Lord O' Bones and Mance, and she's running out of her powders being at the wall.

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

Mance wasn't sent to WF.

That's not where he's supposed to be, he went there for his own reasons.

There is danger near Eastwatch, so extra men are a good thing. I don't believe there are any other ports near the wall that would need defense.

Not getting something (Snow as AA) isn't really a negative

The dead rangers prediction coming too late... 1)Jon wouldn't have listened and she knew that 2) Part of that whole appearing powerful and being dramatic thing.

I still believe had she gone with Stannis she would have seen that danger coming.

I don't recall if Stannis knew that it was The Lord O' Bones burned and not Mance?

[JaegrM]

I don't recall if Stannis knew that it was The Lord O' Bones burned and not Mance?

It was left kind of ambiguous if I remember correctly.

She says something like "you spared his life by pointing out that laws end at the wall" and that was all

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Power and being right are not one and the same. She is a witch who can conjure up powerful magic is all, as are Thoros to a lesser extent and Moqorro.

Your first sentence agrees with what I am saying. I completely disagree with second. I think you fall into the exact trap Jon falls into. He dismisses Mel's power because she got a detail wrong, he judges her he power on the basis of being right. Jon is so emotional when it comes to Arya that he ignores Mel because she got that detail worng. He fails to see that she clearly has power as she got everthing else right about the Alys coming to the wall. My point is that you can't ignore power on the basis of one wrong detail. Its obvious Mel has power and somebody with good judgement (which Jon clearly doesn't have due to his emotional attachment to Arya) would try to make use of or a least take least listen that power, while accounting for some margin of error.

[butterbumps!]

Your first sentence agrees with what I am saying. I completely disagree with second. I think you fall into the exact trap Jon falls into. He dismisses Mel's power because she got a detail wrong, he judges her he power on the basis of being right. Jon is so emotional when it comes to Arya that he ignores Mel because she got that detail worng. He fails to see that she clearly has power as she got everthing else right about the Alys coming to the wall. My point is that you can't ignore power on the basis of one wrong detail. Its obvious Mel has power and somebody with good judgement (which Jon clearly doesn't have due to his emotional attachment to Arya) would try to make use of or a least take least listen that power, while accounting for some margin of error.

Jon absolutely doesn't dismiss the fact that Mel has power:

Jon glanced over his shoulder. The shadow was there, just as she had said, etched in moonlight against the Wall. A girl in grey on a dying horse, he thought. Coming here, to you. Arya. He turned back to the red priestess. Jon could feel her warmth. She has power. The thought came unbidden, seizing him with iron teeth, but this was not a woman he cared to be indebted to, not even for his little sister. “Dalla told me something once. Val’s sister, Mance Rayder’s wife. She said that sorcery was a sword without a hilt. There is no safe way to grasp it.”

This passage gives us a good summary of Jon's feelings toward Mel. He recognizes that she has real power, but he trusts neither her personally, nor magic generally. His mistrust of her is not so much about the perceived "wrongness" of her interpretations, but because Jon understands that she's playing her own power game and mistrusts her motives.

[JaegrM]

Jon absolutely doesn't dismiss the fact that Mel has power:

This passage gives us a good summary of Jon's feelings toward Mel. He recognizes that she has real power, but he trusts neither her personally, nor magic generally. His mistrust of her is not so much about the perceived "wrongness" of her interpretations, but because Jon understands that she's playing her own power game and mistrusts her motives.

I'd say Jon's mistrust comes more from the whole burning people alive thing, and that whole burn the weirwoods and dismiss the Old Gods shit.

[butterbumps!]

I'd say Jon's mistrust comes more from the whole burning people alive thing, and that whole burn the weirwoods and dismiss the Old Gods shit.

Except that's not actually what he says or thinks. The passage I quoted shows us exactly what Jon mistrusts. Dall's words back in aSoS have strongly influenced his views on magic; he believes magic is inherently not to be trusted. The second issue is that he mistrusts Mel because he knows that she she's playing toward an endgame that he can't see-- he reflects on the fact that she doesn't tell the full story and witholds much information for her own purposes. She's not forthcoming, in other words.

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

I'd say Jon's mistrust comes more from the whole burning people alive thing, and that whole burn the weirwoods and dismiss the Old Gods shit.

Which is mistrusting her motives. A wise person would not trust anyone who requires them to forsake what they hold sacred in order gain favor with them.

[JaegrM]

Except that's not actually what he says or thinks. The passage I quoted shows us exactly what Jon mistrusts. Dall's words back in aSoS have strongly influenced his views on magic; he believes magic is inherently not to be trusted. The second issue is that he mistrusts Mel because he knows that she she's playing toward an endgame that he can't see-- he reflects on the fact that she doesn't tell the full story and witholds much information for her own purposes. She's not forthcoming, in other words.

I understand that, but if it was Aemon or Sam that used magic, I don't think it would be met by Jon with as much mistrust.

I don't think it's Mel's endgame that makes him distrust her near as much as her zealousness.

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

Which is mistrusting her motives.

[JaegrM]

Which is mistrusting her motives. A wise person would not trust anyone who requires them to forsake what they hold sacred in order gain favor with them.

I'd argue it's method over motive that he distrusts.

[straits]

I'd argue it's method over motive that he distrusts.

Method reflects motives. You can hardly claim to save lives if your method treats many lives as expendable.

[JaegrM]

Method reflects motives. You can hardly claim to save lives if your method treats many lives as expendable.

I don't agree with that at all.

Jaime protects his family by throwing Bran from a window.

Jon saves 2 babies by threatening Gilly and her child.

Jaime stops any bloodshed by threatening Edmure and his unborn child.

[straits]

I don't agree with that at all.

Jaime protects his family by throwing Bran from a window.

Jon saves 2 babies by threatening Gilly and her child.

Jaime stops any bloodshed by threatening Edmure and his unborn child.

And Mel actually burns people. She does not deal in threats. Jamie's impulsive actions pre-hand loss are often either selfish or not well thought out.

[GhostCR]

She's lying to Stannis about him being AA and about his sword being Lightbringer.

But is this because she is inept at reading the flames or is she doing it because of some ulterior motive?

[JaegrM]

And Mel actually burns people. She does not deal in threats. Jamie's impulsive actions pre-hand loss are often either selfish or not well thought out.

And Jaime and Jon would actually follow through with their threats.

Jon wouldn't make himself a liar.

Jaime had a whole conversation about following through with threats you make.

I see no difference.

Method is NOT Motive.

[Harald Hard-Ruler]

No.

She believes it. That's not lying, that's making a mistake. I already said that she got this one wrong probably. Truth is We still don't know if she is wrong.

exactly. She claims that she believes Stannis is AA because she has seen him in her flames fighting against the other with Lightbringer. The truth is that Stannis is in the North right now and likely will come into conflict with the others and will also be wielding a glamored sword to look like Lightbringer, Mel might subconsciously be creating her own prophecy.

[Lion of Judah]

She cost Renly his life and Davos lost four of his sons. Not only is the Red Witch wrong, but other people pay the price for her being wrong.

[butterbumps!]

exactly. She claims that she believes Stannis is AA because she has seen him in her flames fighting against the other with Lightbringer. The truth is that Stannis is in the North right now and likely will come into conflict with the others and will also be wielding a glamored sword to look like Lightbringer, Mel might subconsciously be creating her own prophecy.

We know for a fact that Mel lies in order to create the illusion of having more power (or different types of power) than she has. The leech burnings are a prime example of the way Mel consciously lies. She accurately saw the deaths of those kings in her fires; she added the leech burning ceremony to spice things up, to make it appear that there was a causal relationship between her actions and the deaths of those kings.

From Mel's entry in the World of Ice and Fire App: "What she neglects to tell Stannis is that she has already seen their deaths in her flames and that the magic is not required to bring them about." Mel herself knows the leech burning are a lie, because she doesn't try the "death by leech-burning" again for any of Stannis' subsequent impediments to power. So we know Mel makes mistakes as well as shamelessly lies when she chooses.

ETA:

I understand that, but if it was Aemon or Sam that used magic, I don't think it would be met by Jon with as much mistrust.

I don't think it's Mel's endgame that makes him distrust her near as much as her zealousness.

I would argue that Aemon or Sam's use of magic would have a remarkable impact on Jon's attitude toward them.

[Mr Hodor]

She cost Renly his life and Davos lost four of his sons. Not only is the Red Witch wrong, but other people pay the price for her being wrong.

I think that is overstatement, by just linking one chain in the whole scheme of things.She did kill Renly but i dont think she had any intentions of killing Davos' sons.

One could say that the evil twisted demon monkey know as Tyrion killled Davos's sons, or the queen cercei killed Davos's sons, or Imry Florent killed them by not listening to Davos. Renly's ambitions killed Renly, or Did Tyrells kill renly because they feuled his ambitions, or Ned's stupid action to tell Cersei killed Renly. And those will be true but not the main cause of death.