Is Mel really as wrong as often as everyone here thinks?

[JaegrM]

I've seen it said on the forum that Melisandre is always getting her visions wrong.

I really don't agree with this.

She correctly sees her threats to herself coming twice - She knew Cressen was going to poison her, and knew Davos intended to kill her.

Grey girl on a dying horse- her vision was correct, there was a grey girl coming on a dying horse, who was kin to Jon (as described before Robb takes Rickard's head) Karstarks and Starks are related.

She correctly and in detail saw the rangers dying and being returned as heads without eyes.

Many people claim she didn't do anything with the Leeches and that she saw the three deaths coming, which would be a highly accurate reading of the flames.

She correctly envisioned The Battle of Blackwater, and I'm inclined to agree with her when she says had Stannis brought her the battle would have gone differently.

Her only real sin is she goes for the Dramatic effect, and tries to appear more powerful than she is.

This leads her to doing things like burning the leeches (If she did in fact only see the deaths and not have a hand in it), Saying for a certainty that it was Arya on the horse, that it was Eastwatch falling, etc.

It's not that she's wrong, it's that she can't/wont show any doubt

Or am I missing something?

Obviously there is the whole Stannis being AA thing, but who knows?

[Blood of the Flagon]

She is the epitome of someone who knows enough to be dangerous

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Her only real sin is she goes for the Dramatic effect, and tries to appear more powerful than she is.

This leads her to doing things like burning the leeches (If she did in fact only see the deaths and not have a hand in it), Saying for a certainty that it was Arya on the horse, that it was Eastwatch falling, etc.

It's not that she's wrong, it's that she can't/wont show any doubt

... that's exactly what makes her wrong so very often and dangerous to rely on.

[JaegrM]

... that's exactly what makes her wrong so very often and dangerous to rely on.

I'll agree with this.

But people seem to think she's inept at reading the flames, and that I don't agree with

[Mr Hodor]

i think her predictions are unreliable (compared to others like Moqorro) because she looks for things in a place she dosent know very well..

Somewhere in her POV she sees in the flames a towers by the sea being attacked and tells Jon it is Eastwatch, despite not being sure.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I'll agree with this.

But people seem to think she's inept at reading the flames, and that I don't agree with

Because Melisandre makes shit up, the net result is negative, leading to that conclusion.

[JaegrM]

i think her predictions are unreliable (compared to others like Moqorro) because she looks for things in a place she dosent know very well..

Somewhere in her POV she sees in the flames a towers by the sea being attacked and tells Jon it is Eastwatch, despite not being sure.

Like I said, it's not that she read the vision wrong, but she wont show any doubt to others in order to appear powerful, in her mind she can't show doubt and has to make everything she does look simple.

That's her flaw.

I don't think it's fair to say her visions are less reliable than anyone's because we haven't seen enough of the other's abilities, and lack a POV from them to say one way or the other.

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

She's lying to Stannis about him being AA and about his sword being Lightbringer.

[JaegrM]

Because Melisandre makes shit up, the net result is negative, leading to that conclusion.

How did you arrive at the net result being negative?

[JaegrM]

She's lying to Stannis about him being AA and about his sword being Lightbringer.

No.

She believes it. That's not lying, that's making a mistake. I already said that she got this one wrong probably. Truth is We still don't know if she is wrong.

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I think because she burn burns people she automatically tends to get dismissed by some people. However, she definately has power. The shadowbabies prove it and I think her predictions even if she gets some of the details wrong a far better than just random guessing. The problem is we haven't seen anybody who really recognizes that despite her powers she is still human and has her flaws. Both Jon and Stannis either seem to listen to fully or ignore her advice. If somebody simply realized she has power, but still has character flaws she would be a great asset.

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

No.

She believes it. That's not lying, that's making a mistake. I already said that she got this one wrong probably. Truth is We still don't know if she is wrong.

Maybe you don't know. From everything I've read, I interpret it differently. She knows that he isn't, she just doesn't want to believe it and she is lying to Stannis about his sword being Lightbringer. She lied about her little leech trick and even Stannis doesn't believe that.

[Which Tyler]

You could very easily claim that she's lying by presenting as fact what is interpretation.

If she told people what she'd seen, and hedged her interpretation, I don't think she'd have this same reputation; but she sees things, exhibits human error, but doesn't make any allowance for this.

When presented with information contrary to her suspicion, seems the only time she'll admit (even to herself) that she's made a mistake; and then sees it the wrong way around.

She presents suspicion as fact, and sexes up the dossier... reminds me of certain recent politicians

[butterbumps!]

I'll agree with this.

But people seem to think she's inept at reading the flames, and that I don't agree with

I don't think anyone doubts she sees real visions, but the problem isn't what she sees but what she says of them. Her interpretation is wrong. If she took out paper and drew out exactly what she saw in her visions and showed that to people, there would be way less confusion and far more accuracy of interpretation. Her problem is that she makes assumptions on what she sees, and tries to put a much more specific name on the visions than she should (instead of saying it's a girl on a grey horse and leaving it there, she says that it's Arya in order to further her influence).

Some of this is purposeful manipulation: the girl on the horse as Arya and her naming those towers Eastwatch are two cases where she stretches the truth of what she sees in order to serve some further purpose. I think she was legitimately convinced of Stannis as Azor Ahai, but this is another example of her being mistaken/ jumping to conclusions.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

How did you arrive at the net result being negative?

- Melisandre sees Renley's armor in the Battle for Blackwater Bay, tells Stannis to attack Storms End and thus directly causes the way the Battle for Blackwater Bay to play out that way.

- Melisandre sees a grey girl on a dying horse, claims her to be Arya, leads to Mance Rayder going on a wild goode chase.

- Melisandre claims the rangers to return dead and blind, but only after nothing could be done about it anymore.

- Melisandre searches for Azor Azhai, sees Snow and doesn't get it.

- Melisandre sees a port castle being overwhelmed, claims it to be Eastwatch. If the Watch or Stannis would be dumb enough to dispatch troops based on that, they'll be worse off than if she had kept her mouth shut.

[JaegrM]

Maybe you don't know. From everything I've read, I interpret it differently. She knows that he isn't, she just doesn't want to believe it and she is lying to Stannis about his sword being Lightbringer. She lied about her little leech trick and even Stannis doesn't believe that.

I do really wish she'd thought about the sword in her POV chapters.

I wanted to know why she bothered with it, if it has some magical properties, or if it was just a glamour.

I lean towards it being just a glamour, but I wanted to know for sure.

Or if she thinks it can become the True Lightbringer.

And if she's deluded and wrong, that's still not LYING.

If she's lying it's only to herself.

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

I think because she burn burns people she automatically tends to get dismissed by some people. However, she definately has power. The shadowbabies prove it and I think her predictions even if she gets some of the details wrong a far better than just random guessing. The problem is we haven't seen anybody who really recognizes that despite her powers she is still human and has her flaws. Both Jon and Stannis either seem to listen to fully or ignore her advice. If somebody simply realized she has power, but still has character flaws she would be a great asset.

Power and being right are not one and the same. She is a witch who can conjure up powerful magic is all, as are Thoros to a lesser extent and Moqorro.

[JaegrM]

- Melisandre sees Renley's armor in the Battle for Blackwater Bay, tells Stannis to attack Storms End and thus directly causes the way the Battle for Blackwater Bay to play out that way.

- Melisandre sees a grey girl on a dying horse, claims her to be Arya, leads to Mance Rayder going on a wild goode chase.

- Melisandre claims the rangers to return dead and blind, but only after nothing could be done about it anymore.

- Melisandre searches for Azor Azhai, sees Snow and doesn't get it.

- Melisandre sees a port castle being overwhelmed, claims it to be Eastwatch. If the Watch or Stannis would be dumb enough to dispatch troops based on that, they'll be worse off than if she had kept her mouth shut.

Mance wasn't sent to WF.

That's not where he's supposed to be, he went there for his own reasons.

There is danger near Eastwatch, so extra men are a good thing. I don't believe there are any other ports near the wall that would need defense.

Not getting something (Snow as AA) isn't really a negative

The dead rangers prediction coming too late... 1)Jon wouldn't have listened and she knew that 2) Part of that whole appearing powerful and being dramatic thing.

I still believe had she gone with Stannis she would have seen that danger coming.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Mance wasn't sent to WF.

That's not where he's supposed to be, he went there for his own reasons.

No, he was sent to collect Arya, the grey girl on a dying horse coming up the east side of Long Lake. But there wasn't any Arya, the grey girl on a dying horse coming up the east side of Long Lake.

What he did later on got nothing to do with Mel.

[Hans Sprungfeld]

wrong thread