Is Mel really as wrong as often as everyone here thinks?

[The Dornishman's Wife]

From Mel's entry in the World of Ice and Fire App: "What she neglects to tell Stannis is that she has already seen their deaths in her flames and that the magic is not required to bring them about."

Oh, just a quick question: Is that a new information by the app or was that already confirmed before the app (and not just a plausible theory)?

[butterbumps!]

Oh, just a quick question: Is that a new information by the app or was that already confirmed before the app (and not just a plausible theory)?

I think there's enough evidence in the text to deduce it (i.e. if this actually worked why didn't Mel do it again), but the App confirms it unquestionably with the sentence I quoted.

Sorry to ask but is this app canon/GRRM approved?

Yes, it's official and approved by Martin.

[Mr Hodor]

.....From Mel's entry in the World of Ice and Fire App: "What she neglects to tell Stannis is that she has already seen their deaths in her flames and that the magic is not required to bring them about." Mel herself knows the leech burning are a lie, .......

Sorry to ask but is this app canon/GRRM approved?

[Tagganaro]

Someone should do a list of Mel's conclusions she comes to from looking at the flames over the course of the series...It seems to me as if the majority, if not the entirety of her conclusions are wrong.

Her POV pretty much confirms how misguided she is- She jumps from thinking about how she had to be careful about misreading her visions as they had brought many priests down straight into her Stannis= Azor Ahai fanaticism. I think that's a pretty good shorthand of how misguided she is.

Jon has her pretty much figured out as well- She's obsessed with appearances and manipulation of powerful people/men, but she's not particularly reliable or trust-worthy and she's not someone you'd want to be indebted to.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

It's approved but even they admit to omissions, mistakes, misinterpretations, & facts that are subject to change. eta: the app.

[-Ghost-]

She needs to be more like Jojen and just describe exactly what she see's. What she originally see's is usually correct but then she always feels the need to kind of twist it into something that she wants or what someone else wants to hear.

I dont remember, do we know exactly why Mance ended up in Winterfell if he was supposed to go somewhere around Long Lake?

[Lion of Judah]

I think that is overstatement, by just linking one chain in the whole scheme of things.She did kill Renly but i dont think she had any intentions of killing Davos' sons.

One could say that the evil twisted demon monkey know as Tyrion killled Davos's sons, or the queen cercei killed Davos's sons, or Imry Florent killed them by not listening to Davos. Renly's ambitions killed Renly, or Did Tyrells kill renly because they feuled his ambitions, or Ned's stupid action to tell Cersei killed Renly. And those will be true but not the main cause of death.

Even with Tyrion's efforts Stannis would have still won the battle if he wasn't attacked from behind by Tyrell forces. Why exactly was he in a position to be attacked from behind? He was in that situation because the Red Witch can't tell her feet from her hands and convinced him that Renly would defeat him when in fact it was only someone wearing Renly's armor. And why were they wearing Renly's armor and attacking him from behind? Because the Red Witch killed him.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

I will have to reread it I thought he was sent to WF & Mel's vision of Alys came later.

[butterbumps!]

It's approved but even they admit to omissions, mistakes, misinterpretations, & facts that are subject to change.

Yes, there can be errors like with anything. But it articulates concisely what is already apparent in the text regarding the leech-burnings.

[JaegrM]

I will have to reread it I thought he was sent to WF & Mel's vision of Alys came later.

Nope.

He was supposed to go look for her near the lake.

No one knows why he went to Winterfell.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

Maybe he caught a peek at Alys said "That's NOT Arya Stark!" then said "Off to Winterfell!"?

[The Mother of The Others]

Taking up residence in Winterfell is like living the dream for him! He's reversing his defeat at the Wall by taking the prize he had his eyes on all along? (Some Odysseus kind of tom-foolery still to come from that boy?)

Jon mistrusts Mel because he knows that she's playing toward an endgame that he can't see. She's not forthcoming, in other words.

But is this because she is inept at reading the flames or is she doing it because of some ulterior motive?

She's a zealot, but one who we need? It's not about accuracy with her, it's about marshalling forces against the Others by whatever means necessary. So she lies and distorts because telling the whole truth would result in people running away from the Wall and she needs to direct them towards the Ice & Fire conflict zone. People aren't ready for the truth so she feels she can't risk entrusting them with the truth because they can't be trusted to react properly? From her POV, failure is not an option because humanity might get wiped out if she fails, so if truthtelling is a liability the importance of truthtelling starts to diminish, understandably. Full disclosure doesn't matter nearly as much in the grand scheme of things, what matters is successfully manipulating all the mundanes into position so they have the best chance of saving their species. Nobody else is on target like she is about what's coming, and there isn't the luxury of time to talk every person through it logically until they see the grumpkins as a reality, because logic would lead most of the realm to dismiss her, especially the crown down south. Hence the methods used.

Of course I'm not certain her motives are as good and altruistic as this, because we don't know, but it's how I'm making sense of what we've seen.

So she sees everything in her visions through the eyes of a zealot intent on the mission, and her paranoia leads her to assign meanings incorrectly based on that. But her sense of urgency is spot on. And directing everything toward readiness is still the thing to do, even if she's crying wolf sometimes. And the vision inaccuracies come in part from straining so hard---Moqorro isn't using his visions to coordinate a continental war effort by keeping tabs on everything. Moqorro is only trying to dazzle with pinpoint accuracy about "obvious" near-future events. He's not exerting himself or pushing the limits of what the Seer power can do like she is by attaching a Purpose to her searchings of the future. So of course there's less chance his visions will lead him astray because he's not looking for anything complex enough to be led astray by it. His focus isn't accomplishment, but to impress, like a circus sideshow performer using jazz hands. (Mel can manage simple displays like that easily, such as the proof of her abilities quoted above which made Jon reflect on how "she has power." It's the specific purpose to "find Arya" that went awry.)

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

But is this because she is inept at reading the flames or is she doing it because of some ulterior motive?

She has an ulterior motive, it's obvious. Why the need to burn the wierwoods and the Seven? Why is she lying about Lightbringer and about the leeches? Why all of the lies if there isn't an ulterior motive? The whole fire is good cold is bad thing doesn't work for me. Where is the balance? Both need to be in harmony for survival. It think that is the point of The Song of Ice and Fire, they must exist together or both will perish.

[The Mother of The Others]

Agreed. Mel's mission will backfire. But right now, with the elements out of whack, she's the best we've got. The option of choosing balance over her doesn't yet exist. As of the moment, Ice is coming to get us and Fire is offering to assist in our defence. It's an unbalanced world either way, so Mel will lose her balance and Jon or whoever's left will see they need to adjust their strategy.

[JaegrM]

She has an ulterior motive, it's obvious. Why the need to burn the wierwoods and the Seven? Why is she lying about Lightbringer and about the leeches? Why all of the lies if there isn't an ulterior motive? The whole fire is good cold is bad thing doesn't work for me. Where is the balance? Both need to be in harmony for survival. It think that is the point of The Song of Ice and Fire, they must exist together or both will perish.

She's a religious zealot.

Her Only One God thing is more than enough motive to burn the weirwoods and The Seven. This isn't hidden, it's a clear agenda she has. Everything you said is nothing more than her religious motives.

Nothing Ulterior about them.

You really don't like her do you?

[Ororo727 Jon Snow Fangirl]

She's a religious zealot.

Her Only One God thing is more than enough motive to burn the weirwoods and The Seven. This isn't hidden, it's a clear agenda she has. Everything you said is nothing more than her religious motives.

Nothing Ulterior about them.

You really don't like her do you?

I don't like any of the zealots because they are serving their own purposes under the guise of of being a true believers, whether it is Melisandre, Damphair, or the High Septon... Anyone who proposes to speak for invisible gods. There is no Great Other or R'hllor only people who make them real in their minds.

[JaegrM]

I don't like any of the zealots because they are serving their own purposes under the guise of of being a true believers, whether it is Melisandre, Damphair, or the High Septon... Anyone who proposes to speak for invisible gods. There is no Great Other or R'hllor only people who make them real in their minds.

Elaborate.Can you give examples?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't think anyone doubts she sees real visions, but the problem isn't what she sees but what she says of them. Her interpretation is wrong. If she took out paper and drew out exactly what she saw in her visions and showed that to people, there would be way less confusion and far more accuracy of interpretation. Her problem is that she makes assumptions on what she sees, and tries to put a much more specific name on the visions than she should (instead of saying it's a girl on a grey horse and leaving it there, she says that it's Arya in order to further her influence).

Some of this is purposeful manipulation: the girl on the horse as Arya and her naming those towers Eastwatch are two cases where she stretches the truth of what she sees in order to serve some further purpose. I think she was legitimately convinced of Stannis as Azor Ahai, but this is another example of her being mistaken/ jumping to conclusions.

Exactly this. What she SEES is technically accurate. It's her INTERPRETATIONS that are wrong.

[JaegrM]

Exactly this. What she SEES is technically accurate. It's her INTERPRETATIONS that are wrong.

I think it's more like what she SAYS is wrong. Like with the 'Eastwatch' vision she knows it may not be Eastwatch, but like I said earlier she wont show any weakness so she says it is Eastwatch, when she knows it may not be.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think it's more like what she SAYS is wrong. Like with the 'Eastwatch' vision she knows it may not be Eastwatch, but like I said earlier she wont show any weakness so she says it is Eastwatch, when she knows it may not be.

Whether she's intentionally misreading it or not, the result is still the same: no worthwhile actionable intelligence. And I'm pretty sure that "Renly at the gates of King's Landing" was an actual misreading.