What do you think the biggest red herring of the series will turn out to be?

[Wanderer]

I can't really see how much more of a part she's going to play, myself.

Gotta agree here. Margery seems to be just an extension of Tyrelian ambition. She doesn't appear (at least IMO) to be fleshed out enough to be a big player.

[Wanderer]

Every story you've ever read has already been written. The difference is in the details. Also Jon being Rhaegar and Lyanna's child doesn't guarantee anything, and to call Jon irrelevant when he was the leader of the force designed to stop possibly the greatest threat to the realm is pretty off base.

Yeah no kidding! Disliking Jon is one thing, but calling him irrelevant is crazy talk. He's basically what stands between the Others and the Realm.

[Wanderer]

First time poster :). I would agree with this, other than possibly undermining the kingdom on the eve of the overarching series' theme of a conflict of Ice and Fire.

I think R+L=J will be incredibly important, but that it has nothing to do with who sits the Iron Throne. Rhaegar says of the baby he holds, Aegon, and says "His is a song of Ice and Fire," in Dany's vision in the house of the Undying. Yet the Targaryan's have no connection to Ice in and of themselves. However R+L=J gives us a child with the blood of the dragon and the Kings of Winter. It makes much more sense for his to be a song of Ice and Fire. Jon represents a balance of the two extremes and his bloodline will somehow be important in restoring balance to the world hovering between two deadly extremes, with Dragons being the equivalent of nuclear weapons, and the armies of Ice, ie WW and wights, being similar to a zombie apocalypse. I get the sense that Dany returning to westeros with Dragons is as bad as the coming winter and that a battle between Ice and Fire is actually the real danger. The long winter is bad enough. The doom of Valyria was bad enough. What happens when the two collide? I think on the Eve of that is when the purpose Jon's parentage will be revealed and I am betting the Iron Throne will be irrelevant.

Excellent post and I agree completely!

[Black Wolf Smith]

Welcome to the forums

First time poster :). I would agree with this, other than possibly undermining the kingdom on the eve of the overarching series' theme of a conflict of Ice and Fire.

I think R+L=J will be incredibly important, but that it has nothing to do with who sits the Iron Throne. Rhaegar says of the baby he holds, Aegon, and says "His is a song of Ice and Fire," in Dany's vision in the house of the Undying. Yet the Targaryan's have no connection to Ice in and of themselves. However R+L=J gives us a child with the blood of the dragon and the Kings of Winter. It makes much more sense for his to be a song of Ice and Fire. Jon represents a balance of the two extremes and his bloodline will somehow be important in restoring balance to the world hovering between two deadly extremes, with Dragons being the equivalent of nuclear weapons, and the armies of Ice, ie WW and wights, being similar to a zombie apocalypse. I get the sense that Dany returning to westeros with Dragons is as bad as the coming winter and that a battle between Ice and Fire is actually the real danger. The long winter is bad enough. The doom of Valyria was bad enough. What happens when the two collide? I think on the Eve of that is when the purpose Jon's parentage will be revealed and I am betting the Iron Throne will be irrelevant.

You are dangerously close to being a heretic..... :commie:

That the dragons will fight against the Others.

Almost agree.

I think its a toss up between the Dragons( they won't be a big part of the stories) and Dany (who at this point I don't ever see making it to Westeros, let alone saving it) and three heads of a Dragon having any real meaning other then being some Targaryen superstition.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

No, it can't.

The term comes from the physical red herrings that hunters would use to train hunting dogs. The red herring, which had a very strong scent, would be dragged in front of dogs to train them to ignore the obvious scent and pursue the elusive that would make them effective hunters. They were training them to tune out the smell of herring (although Mythbusters recently did an episode that found this practice didn't work).

The development of the term as a figurative distraction shoved into someone's face was developed in the nineteenth and twentieth century for when an author would prominently place misleading or intentionally place errorneous facts and clues in put in front of someone to distract them from what is really going on. Examples in ASOIAF include Ser Hugh of the Vale being involved in Jon Arryn's murder and Lysa Arryn's letter to Cat that the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn.

So no, R+L=J isn't the red herring, since it's never presented to us by Martin, we get there ourselves by investigation and analysis. R+L=J is the scent a seasoned hunter dog is supposed to smell behind the herring (which is Wylla, Ashara Dayne, the fisherman's daughter from the sisters, etc.)

Thank you for stating what I'd like to think most people would already know before they did something crazy like wade into a discussion about red herrings without understanding what a goddamn red herring really is.

[Beeromir]

I have to disagree with those of you who said Viserys isn't insane. It is like saying the Mad King was just traumatized by Duskendale. Irrational behavior and constant mood swings, coupled with obsessiveness, delusions of grandure, and a self-preception that in no way correlates with reality, pretty much qualify as insane. If he wasn't completely and irreversably insane, he was on the fast track to being so.

I think the biggest red herring is probably going to be whatever build up that will be created over the whereabouts of Rickon. I read some posters suggest that the name "Shaggydog" is probably a foreshadow of the "shaggy dog story," which by nature ends pointlessly and anticlimatically.

I also think that wherever Robb Stark's decree legitimizing Jon Snow will be a red herring if it comes into play. It reminds me of Eddard's careful wording of Robert's will, which at the time seemed like the key to dethroning Joffrey but ultimately just gets ripped up by Cersei. If that letter ever reappears, I can just see unCat intercepting it and ripping it up.

[western wolf]

the suggestion that tywin somehow is not Tyrions father.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I have to disagree with those of you who said Viserys isn't insane. It is like saying the Mad King was just traumatized by Duskendale. Irrational behavior and constant mood swings, coupled with obsessiveness, delusions of grandure, and a self-preception that in no way correlates with reality, pretty much qualify as insane. If he wasn't completely and irreversably insane, he was on the fast track to being so.

I think Viserys was unstable by the end, but I do not think that he was born insane the way, say, Joffrey was born a sociopath. I think it's very possible that, if he had been raised in a more stable environment, he could've turned out fine. Whereas Joffrey was displaying classic anti-social personality disorder behaviors from a very young age (like gutting the cat).

I also think that wherever Robb Stark's decree legitimizing Jon Snow will be a red herring if it comes into play. It reminds me of Eddard's careful wording of Robert's will, which at the time seemed like the key to dethroning Joffrey but ultimately just gets ripped up by Cersei. If that letter ever reappears, I can just see unCat intercepting it and ripping it up.

The crucial difference is that, unlike Robert's will, we don't know what exactly Robb's will says. In true red herring form (see Danm's post further above), it's the stuff that's spelled out explicitly that ends up going nowhere.

[JaimeNotJamie]

I think it's something most on the boards are assuming, but, similar to R+L=J many casual readers may not - Tyrion being the valonqar will end up being a (predictable) red herring. The bigger surprise to most on here will be if Jaime isn't it, but to the casual reader I'm not sure that's true.

[Beeromir]

I think Viserys was unstable by the end, but I do not think that he was born insane the way, say, Joffrey was born a sociopath. I think it's very possible that, if he had been raised in a more stable environment, he could've turned out fine. Whereas Joffrey was displaying classic anti-social personality disorder behaviors from a very young age (like gutting the cat).

The crucial difference is that, unlike Robert's will, we don't know what exactly Robb's will says. In true red herring form (see Danm's post further above), it's the stuff that's spelled out explicitly that ends up going nowhere.

Insanity and various mental disorders can appear at different stages of life, say during puberty, and I believe I read in a post somewhere that Ser Barristan Selmy said at one point Viserys showed signs of instability at a young age. I unfortunately can't quote, I don't have the book and can't remember what the poster exactly said. He was destined to be insane, IMO, but his struggles as the Beggar King probably sped up the entire process. I wouldn't want to see him king, anyway.

I think it still qualifies as a red herring. Maybe it isn't the biggest one there is, but I believe in R+L=J and AAR so I can't go throwing those explicit examples out there. I'd be lying :D Besides, you don't need to know exactly what was written for it to be a red herring. You know he basically legitimizes Jon upon his death and there may be a few more surprises in there that will not matter once unCat grabs it, rips it up, and hangs some people. When I read it, I thought it seemed like an important part of the story. Why send off a few characters with a letter from a King soon to die? In this case, I think it won't matter like Ned's letter, but I doubt it was put in there to fill up pages.

Edit: I shouldn't say R+L=J is one too because I agree it isn't that obvious...until you go on these forums

[Toccs]

The word "Other" which has convinced many that the Rhllorist deity The Great Other is somehow the god/leader of the Others in Westeros.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think it still qualifies as a red herring. Maybe it isn't the biggest one there is, but I believe in R+L=J and AAR so I can't go throwing those explicit examples out there. I'd be lying :D Besides, you don't need to know exactly what was written for it to be a red herring. You know he basically legitimizes Jon upon his death and there may be a few more surprises in there that will not matter once unCat grabs it, rips it up, and hangs some people. When I read it, I thought it seemed like an important part of the story. Why send off a few characters with a letter from a King soon to die? In this case, I think it won't matter like Ned's letter, but I doubt it was put in there to fill up pages.

This might be of interest to you:

[Stannis of Dragonstone]

Yes. Anyone who believes Azor Ahai will come to the books is as foolish as someone who thinks a God/saviour will come to us in real life. (I don't mean to offend)

But you told your son that I was your god. :crying:

[Roza Ahai]

But you told your son that I was your god. :crying:

This is hillarious, Stannis. :laugh:

[Queen of Whores]

The Others will pass the Wall

Dany or her dragons will be of any importance in Westeros

Tyrion will meet Daenerys (though I hope he does)

AA ( I never cared for the whole 'prophecy' nonsense)

[rmholt]

I've found this to be true as well. Everyone I know who has read he books and doesnt geek out on the internet (like myself) had no idea. In fact, two separate friends of mine kind of laughed it off as if it were impossible until I showed them the theory explained at length. They were shocked.

The groupthink on this site is often overlooked. The Internet is perfect for figuring these kinds of things out, and GRRM has commented on this before. Thousands of people analyzing the same material for any and all patterns, will eventually stumble upon some real ones...

It's the theory that makes so much sense you want to smack your head. It is similar in type to the Hound Gravedigger model - a lot of misdirection and obvious when you look at it right. It probably is what has spawned all the other theories.

Additionally it was the first big surprise of the GRRM AGOT type. Just as we learned GRRM will kill an Eddard Stark we learned he will mess with us but not lie.

[rmholt]

I think it's something most on the boards are assuming, but, similar to R+L=J many casual readers may not - Tyrion being the valonqar will end up being a (predictable) red herring. The bigger surprise to most on here will be if Jaime isn't it, but to the casual reader I'm not sure that's true.

If anyone thinks Jaime is going to strangle Cersei after all he has done and said (and without a hand to seal things) they arent paying attention. Jaime doesnt have hatred he has indifference. Oh, yeah, and only one hand. Tyrion would like to be it, and may be, but Doran Martell wanted Dorne to kill Tywin so we dont always get what we want. There is no evidence anywhere of who it might be except for Tyrion's emotions. There is lots of evidence it isnt Jaime. If GRRM does one thing he doesnt pull stuff out of his butt. He just hides clues in plain sight like PD James. You have to read every word. So there would be evidence.

[Yarp]

I've found this to be true as well. Everyone I know who has read he books and doesnt geek out on the internet (like myself) had no idea. In fact, two separate friends of mine kind of laughed it off as if it were impossible until I showed them the theory explained at length. They were shocked.

The groupthink on this site is often overlooked. The Internet is perfect for figuring these kinds of things out, and GRRM has commented on this before. Thousands of people analyzing the same material for any and all patterns, will eventually stumble upon some real ones...

True that. R+L=J is one of the very few that I picked up on before I found this place. Renly was gay and the Hound is alive? What?

That said, AA=the Last Hero=Jon=a sad, lonely ending for our hero, not as some messianic king but as an exile beyond the wall.

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

You are dangerously close to being a heretic..... :commie:

You're the best heretic recruiter...EVER! :laugh:

If anyone thinks Jaime is going to strangle Cersei after all he has done and said (and without a hand to seal things) they arent paying attention.

His thoughts give me cause to entertain the idea of him killing Cersei, especially if he thinks he is about to die himself. Plus, he is strengthening his remaining hand. I see him pulling Cersei up by her neck and choking her in the air, but that's just me.

Jaime doesnt have hatred he has indifference. Oh, yeah, and only one hand.

That indifference could be turned into hate by being around Cersei again, or it could turn into hate by him being forced to truly accept how 'messed up' his life has become.

Tyrion would like to be it, and may be, but Doran Martell wanted Dorne to kill Tywin so we dont always get what we want. There is no evidence anywhere of who it might be except for Tyrion's emotions. There is lots of evidence it isnt Jaime. If GRRM does one thing he doesnt pull stuff out of his butt. He just hides clues in plain sight like PD James. You have to read every word. So there would be evidence.

I feel GRRM has hidden clues in plain sight in reference to Jaime being Cersei's killer. When I first read that it would be the younger brother, I automatically expected that it would Tyrion. GRRM has reminded us throughout the text that Tyrion is younger than Jaime and Cersei, and we are reminded throughout the text that Tyrion and Cersei seriously dislike one another. Tyrion even daydreams about killing Cersei. Tyrion has been painted as the obvious answer. Jaime on the other hand (no pun intended) has not been repeatedly painted as the younger brother or someone that wants to end Cersei life. He has been painted as the one person in the books that loves her beyond reproach; but he is her younger brother and could decide to kill her given the proper provocation.

[Beeromir]

This might be of interest to you: http://asoiaf.wester...acy-reexamined/

Thanks, I did find that interesting! My personal interpretation was that the Northern Lords wanted to make Rickon Lord, while getting revenge on both Freys and Boltons. In return, the North would back Stannis for the throne. I assumed Manderly called Rickon his Lord not because there was a King in the North, but to get Davos to assist them...why would a man sworn to Stannis go get a king for Stannis to war with? More or less, I read the offer as being, "get us our Lord, and Stannis will be our king." I assumed the North was less interested in complete dependence and more interested in revenge, plus being free of the inevitable tyranny they would suffer being sworn to House Bolton.

However, Robb was loved in the North. Stannis isn't loved anywhere in Westeros (but has much love on the forums). Freys and Boltons didn't just betray Starks, they betrayed every house that swore allegiance to Robb at the Red Wedding. They shed the blood of their kin while breaking some of their most sacred customs. As a result, they may want to honor their slain kinsmen and King at the RW by following the King's final decree. While I don't believe that most Lords view bastards in a favorable light, I think a bastard that rose to Lord Commander of the Night's Watch might change their minds.

You might be right about Lady Dustin, but I'm not convinced either way. I suspect she is playing both sides, so either way, she wins (much like I thought Roose Bolton was up until the point he stabbed Robb in the heart).

If you are correct though, and the plan is to make Jon Stark King in the North, how do you think it will play out? I remember Cat being upset with Robb's decision to legitimize Jon as his heir. If this does happen, would unCat and the BwB come after Jon? If Rickon comes into play, I could especially see this happening (even though I somehow suspect Jon would still want to remain in the Night's Watch, but we'll see now that he was stabbed by some of them a little).

Edit: I didn't read the entire thread, just the OP...23 pages, ain't nobody got time for that.