Ser Barristan Selmy...

[Ser Leftwich]

(1) Barristan asks Illiyrio to put him in touch with Dany/Viserys.

(2) From Illiryio's point of view, Barristan adds some more credibility to Dany, him being the the old KG of her father, Mad King Aerys. Young Griff has his Westerosi credibility in the form of JonConn, so with Barristan walking in the door, why not send this free gift to Dany. Win-win for Illiryio.

[Harle The Handsome]

How so? Aegon was a baby when he died/didn't die, so Barristan wouldn't have been able to recognize him anyway. I highly doubt Barristan Selmy would remember birth marks of Aegon after all those years - if he ever saw them.

At this point Aegon is like Schroedinger's cat, possibly dead or possibly alive, but unknown for certain. As mentioned previously, Barristan may know if there was a birthmark or some other distinguishing trait that could let the cat out of the bag. How could Varys know this? And nosing around - imagine Varys asking Barristan, " Do you remember any distinguishing birthmarks on Aegon?"- would almost certainly raise suspicion.

Sending Barristan to Aegon would also mean exposing him to Aegon's entourage (e.g., Griff, Lemore and Tyrion). Who knows how well that will go? In the back of my mind I imagine Barristan taking one look at Septa Lemore and saying, "I know you! Had Rhaegar not unhorsed me, I'd have named you the queen of love and beauty. Why are you here?"

Finally, Barristan may simply refuse to believe Aegon was real after seeing the gruesome, beaten body wrapped in Lannister red. It is better to send him to Dany and have Barristan and Aegon's paths meet up when it is too late to turn back now.

[Pompeius Magnus]

It's a move by Illyrio to make sure Dany is still in his fold, and one that seems to be immensely important. Even assuming that Barristan didn't need to save Dany on the docks of Qarth, who knows whither she goes? Illyrio needs to a) remind her that he's her primary backer, B) establish that he still believes in her claim, and c) get her dragons back to Pentos and Aegon. Sending Barristan to her takes care of all three at once.

[TheButcherCrow]

We had it from Selmy himself in his own POV chapters that he had help from Varys to get across the narrow sea, wherein we also learned from Arstan Whitebeard that he and Strong Belwas was sent by Magister Illyrio to Qarth to bring Dany and her dragons...

Ok, so you'll notice I have put some of the above quote in italics & some in bold. The section in bold CAN be backed up in the text. The section in italics cannot & in fact it could be argued (& I will) that Barristan himself did not know that Varys was in league with Illyrio & in fact wouldn't have joined up with him had he known. Firstly to deal with what is mentioned in the text:

“I squired for Lord Swann in my youth, and at Magister Illyrio’s behest I have served Strong Belwas as well. But during the years between, I was a knight in Westeros. I have told you no lies, my queen. Yet there are truths I have withheld, and for that and all my other sins I can only beg your forgiveness.” - SoS ch57

“Let us hope this dream was not prophetic. You are a clever imp, just as Varys said, and Daenerys will have need of clever men about her. Ser Barristan is a valiant knight and true; but none, I think, has ever called him cunning.” - DwD ch5

Ok, so the above 2 quotes demonstrate:

1 - Illyrio sent Selmy to Dany

2 - Illyrio knew who Selmy was

Next.

.

"...King’s Landing was crowded with smallfolk who’d come seeking refuge from the fighting. I lost myself amongst them. I had a little silver, but I needed that to pay my passage across the narrow sea, so I slept in septs and alleys and took my meals in pot shops. I let my beard grow out and cloaked myself in age. The day Lord Stark lost his head, I was there, watching. Afterward I went into the Great Sept and thanked the seven gods that Joffrey had stripped me of my cloak.” - DwD ch11

I include this as it is Selmy's only account of his flight from KL & it ends there.

Right, so the above was fact. My theory goes thusly, Varys did not directly assist Selmy. Selmy has an intense dislike for Varys, blaming him for much of Aerys paranoia & in fact remarking that the kingdom began to decline when he arrived. In short, he would not knowingly work with Varys. As far as Selmy is concerned, all he has heard of Illyrio has come from Varys, Illyrio is the one harbouring the Targs & Varys is the Baratheon spy watching them. So Selmy escapes KL after Ned's execution & heads to Pentos to find the one man he thinks can lead him to his true, at that time, king. Remember, at the time of his arrival in Pentos, Varys still serves Joff & Selmy was, it seems keen to avoid him telling the king & queen regent where he was:

“Your Grace, I am sorry I misled you. It was the only way to keep the Lannisters from learning that I had joined you. You are watched, as your brother was. Lord Varys reported every move Viserys made, for years. Whilst I sat on the small council, I heard a hundred such reports. And since the day you wed Khal Drogo, there has been an informer by your side selling your secrets, trading whispers to the Spider for gold and promises.” - SoS ch57

So Selmy didn't want Jorah telling tales to Varys, hence the disguise. Basically, no I don't think Varys got Selmy (directly, although any suggestion to the contrary is speculation & not backed up in text) over The Narrow Sea, Selmy got over himself, sought out Illyrio & the rest is history. It is also worth noting, we only have Cersei's word for that the fact that dismissing Selmy was Varys idea & there is a line from Tyrion straight after that strongly implies he thinks that Cersei is scapegoating people for her & Joff's bad decisions. IIllyrio & Varys must have thought it quite awesome when Selmy tipped up in Pentos, bonus for them.

[Ser Daegon]

So Selmy didn't want Jorah telling tales to Varys, hence the disguise. Basically, no I don't think Varys got Selmy (directly, although any suggestion to the contrary is speculation & not backed up in text) over The Narrow Sea, Selmy got over himself, sought out Illyrio & the rest is history.

Direct quoting, much appreciated. Either way, it still pulls to the point that Illyrio sent Selmy and Belwas to Dany to bring her back to Pentos.

[TheButcherCrow]

As a side note, the "Kingsguard/Queensguard arc" in the song is pretty interesting don't you think? . Selmy in one of his POV's thinks about when he read from the white book. He says something along the lines of "some were craven & some were knaves. Some where heroes but most were just men" and boy do we get to see that. In particular, the 2 stories of redemption stick out. Ser Jaime, who broke his oaths & dishonoured his cloak. Contrasted with Ser Barristan, who kept his oaths but found his cloak just as dirty. Thoughts?

[Ser Daegon]

I agree, it is quite interesting to see how two characters who are seemingly so different are on a similar path. In Selmy's case we see how much he believes in the sanctity of his vows and yet he still feels that he would have set them aside for the woman he secretly loved. I think in that way, Barristan is a tragic character even though he has been a great knight with a shining reputation for most of his life and has gone as far as someone of his birth could possibly go. All this way he hasn't dishonored himself or his name, even in his acceptance of Robert as king. Despite all this success for him, he still has his deep regrets, the strongest being his lack of romantic love. Jaime, on the other hand, is a man who started out great and honorable... and in following that honor he dishonored himself in the eyes of the realm by murdering Aerys. I think it will be interesting indeed, if Jaime survives long enough, to see how Jaime reacts to either the news that fAegon has landed in the south, or if/when Dany arrives to Westeros.

[jvking]

Pycell would have recognized him so varys killed him.

[Roza Ahai]

and in following that honor he dishonored himself in the eyes of the realm by murdering Aerys.

The realm will find out that Jaimee has betrayed Robert also. Stannis sent letters that Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrecella are bastards.

[Mr Hodor]

The realm will find out that Jaimee has betrayed Robert also. Stannis sent letters that Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrecella are bastards.

Words are wind.

If the realm finds out, it would not be because of the letters Stannis sent long back

[Roza Ahai]

Words are wind.

If the realm finds out, it would not be because of the letters Stannis sent long back

Agree, but Stannis' letters might add to it.

[Rheagar Prime]

i always thought he sent him there to protect her and her dragons and bring them back so they could meet up with aegon, but it was dany who messed it up and decided to steal the ships and go to astopor instead. Maybe my thinking of it is just limited since i was glad selmy was back in the story line.

[Le.Chevalier.D'Eon]

Why did Illyrio and Varys send Ser Barristan to Dany instead of (F)Aegon?

Was it just that they felt she needed more protecting?

I couldn't come up with a reason for this, somone help me.

They were hedging their bets, naturally. They wanted to protect both her and F-Aegon. Both are investments to them. All they need is for one of their investments to pay off. Illyrio is a businessman at heart. Afterwards, the goal was for Aegon to ally with Daenerys. But through Tyrion's manipulation of Aegon, that did not happen. Perhaps they were hoping the two would marry and re-start a new Targaryen dynasty with the purest possible bloodline from Valyria. Illyrio becomes Master of Coin and gets even richer.

[TheButcherCrow]

They were hedging their bets, naturally. They wanted to protect both her and F-Aegon. Both are investments to them. All they need is for one of their investments to pay off. Illyrio is a businessman at heart. Afterwards, the goal was for Aegon to ally with Daenerys. But through Tyrion's manipulation of Aegon, that did not happen. Perhaps they were hoping the two would marry and re-start a new Targaryen dynasty with the purest possible bloodline from Valyria. Illyrio becomes Master of Coin and gets even richer.

If you look back a few pages, I did a pretty in depth analysis of what can be established from the text. We can be fairly sure that Selmy is unaware of his association with Varys. Sending him to Faegon would reveal too much of their plans. Plus there is the Golden Company issue (Selmy being famous for cutting through them & slaying 2 of their commanders during war of ninepenny kings).

[Kyoti]

I am surprised that no one mentioned why Aegon was sent on his way in the first place. He was headed to Mereen to marry Danny, only Tyrian convinced him to go to Westeros instead.

I think Varys is playing a far more sophisticated game than anyone else by having the most pieces in play as he can, and I believe his intentions are honest that he just desires a peaceful realm. He's been hedging his bets at every turn. When Robert's Rebellion broke out I don't think anyone expected him to win, but when the tide turned Varys sent off Aegon/fAegon AND arranged for Viserys and Danny to be sent away AND arranged Viserys' marriage to Arianne. That is a hell of a lot of redundant planning. Now, when the realm under Robert was peaceful he had no qualms about letting him rule. He even played along with Robert's desire to kill V&D, even risking that his catspaws might succeed as we all saw when Danny was almost poisoned in Vaes Dothrak, but if he ever truly wanted either or both of them dead he easily could have had Illyrio kill them at any time. He probably would have gained land and title and all manner of power had he delivered the bodies of the "last" Targarians to Robert, but he never did because he just wants peace.

Now, when war broke out between the Starks and Lannisters he played the best card he had by arranging the marriage of Danny and Drogo to give Viserys an army large enough to take the Iron Throne. Danny was nobody while her brother lived, so she was easily sold. Aegon was too young and believed dead. No one would call their banners for a 12-13 year old that everyone believes to be dead, but everyone knows that Viserys is alive. Just like Robert predicted a Targarian with a Dothraki hoard could have taken over Westeros with or without Westerosi support, so it was the best move to make. But just to make sure because the AA prophesy is well known, once again hedging their bets every step along the way, Illyrio gives Danny the dragon eggs. If she is AAR then what a gain for them, if not he is out 3 rocks. This whole plan would have unraveled when Drogo killed Viserys, but at that point Danny became just as good as her brother.

Because Jorah is reporting on Danny all the way up to Qarth it is very easy for them to steer her towards Westeros. Even with the loss of Drogo and the Dothraki she now has Dragons. As soon as they lose contact from Jorah they send Berriston and Belwas. Selmy doesn’t know that Illyrio is working with Verys because there is no way he would have gone along with it, but that is also why he wasn’t sent to Aegon. If he was sent to Aegon he would have know Verys was involved and most likely ruined all of his plans.

Meanwhile, back in Westeros Varys sees Tyrion as a smart and capable leader so he befriends him and gives him what he needs to repair the Seven Kingdoms. When that fails after Blackwater, and with Danny stalled in Slaver’s Bay he has no choice but to play the Aegon card. To top it off he gets to send Aegon the one thing that he was missing in his training, a smart and capable leader to learn from. He never expected Tyrion to figure out Young Griff’s identity or to point him toward Westeros so his hand was again forced. He had to weaken the 7K to a point that either Danny or Aegon could win on their own so he killed Pycell and Kevin Lannister. Without any wise council interfering Cerci will continue to wreak havoc, and achieve that goal.

I firmly believe that Varys is an AAR believer, and that he believes he has the only two possible AAR candidates. He wants peace and knows only AAR can bring it.

[Pompeius Magnus]

Now, when war broke out between the Starks and Lannisters he played the best card he had by arranging the marriage of Danny and Drogo to give Viserys an army large enough to take the Iron Throne. Danny was nobody while her brother lived, so she was easily sold. Aegon was too young and believed dead. No one would call their banners for a 12-13 year old that everyone believes to be dead, but everyone knows that Viserys is alive. Just like Robert predicted a Targarian with a Dothraki hoard could have taken over Westeros with or without Westerosi support, so it was the best move to make. But just to make sure because the AA prophesy is well known, once again hedging their bets every step along the way, Illyrio gives Danny the dragon eggs. If she is AAR then what a gain for them, if not he is out 3 rocks. This whole plan would have unraveled when Drogo killed Viserys, but at that point Danny became just as good as her brother.

Except the Dany-Drogo marriage is already cooked up before the dissolution of peace in Westeros. It seems to me that Viserys and Dany were, at best, tangential to the plans of Varys and Illyrio.

[Lion of Judah]

I think the plan was for Selmy and Belwas to convince Dany on going back to Pentos, they weren't sent to aide her expedition.

[jarl the climber]

I think the plan was for Selmy and Belwas to convince Dany on going back to Pentos, they weren't sent to aide her expedition.

Did Belwas even know that his squire Arstan was really Ser Barristan? The only thing that I can remember is that he did go into the sewers of Mereen with Barristan and Jorah. Going back to Pentos seemed like the only reasonable plan. It was very conveneint that he also sent her three ships after the fashion of the Iron Bank of Bravos stuffed with trade goods and that the captian and crew defered to her wishes. Jorah suggested the diversion on his own iniative. We do not know if there were any letters for him from Illryio or Varys with these ships. Illryio might have wanted her to aquire some Unsullied that in truth would have belonged to him once they arrived in Pentos.

[Lion of Judah]

Did Belwas even know that his squire Arstan was really Ser Barristan? The only thing that I can remember is that he did go into the sewers of Mereen with Barristan and Jorah. Going back to Pentos seemed like the only reasonable plan. It was very conveneint that he also sent her three ships after the fashion of the Iron Bank of Bravos stuffed with trade goods and that the captian and crew defered to her wishes. Jorah suggested the diversion on his own iniative. We do not know if there were any letters for him from Illryio or Varys with these ships. Illryio might have wanted her to aquire some Unsullied that in truth would have belonged to him once they arrived in Pentos.

I doubt that he even knew of Barristan, Belwas was a pit fighter he may have heard of him, but he would have no cause to suspect that Arstan was indeed Barristan. You do bring up a good point about Illyrio sending 3 ships of trade goods, he couldn't have possibly expected those things to no get hocked.

[TheButcherCrow]

Did Belwas even know that his squire Arstan was really Ser Barristan?

What we know is that he squired for him at "Illyrio's behest". It is unknown whether Belwas knew. I would suggest, the ruse is more convincing if he is not told.