Areo Hotah POV in prologue, will be killed by Darkstar

[tbc]

No, it does not. Darry acted on his own and saved Dany and Viserys. He sought favor with the sealord and set up shop there. Oberyn came, they did the marriage pact. Darry and the Sealord died and the next sealord kicked them out. After that we know that Dany and Viserys wandered through the different free cities before they wound up with Illyrio. Illyrio and Varys operated independently from Doran and Darry.

He did not actively manipulate her. He kept things from her for sure and from time to time he would try to make a match with an unworthy candidate to pose that he was still trying to get her married off.

On top of that everything in the text points out that he didn’t know that Arianne took it so harshly because he didn’t know that Arianne read his letter to her brother and that she interpreted it in the way she did. Therefore he feels guilty for all the years of strive between the two of them. Strive which almost backfired immensely when Arianne hatch her stupid Myrcella scheme. On top of that Doran had just lost his most valued partner-in-crime, his beloved brother Oberyn and he needs a new confidant. That’s why he reveals his intentions to her and why he gives her agency of her own.

Are you kidding me? Of course it costs Illy and Varys, in fact it costs them most dearly. Dany controls the dragons and the armies (except for the GC), she’s the big prize. That’s why they wanted Faegon to marry her. If Dany married Quentyn and together they decide to become King and Queen who would stop them? Faegon and Arianne wouldn’t even have the whole of Dorne rise up for them (the Ironwoods would be on Quentyns side). And Faegon would be condemned to play second violin.

On top of that it would also be daft to see Dany and Quentyn marry. In your scenario they supposedly have Dorne already so why not save the hands of both Quentyn and Dany to make marriage alliances with the other great houses.

Quibbling semantics about active manipulation isn't helpful. By sending her marriage candidates she finds insulting, so as to ensure she'll stay unmarried for Viserys, is definitely manipulation. He's goading her to act in a certain way, without telling her why.

I think you're right otherwise: having re-read the chapter, Doran does seem to realise he miscalculated about Arianne, and underestimated her. I still wouldn't trust him to be telling Arianne everything any more than I would Tywin or Olenna.

But I don't believe that Varys and Illyrio were completely absent from Dany and Viserys after Robert's Rebellion. If they're pulling for Aegon, and hoping to distract Robert with Dany Viserys, that would make sense, but why suddenly take them in and marry Dany off, intending to have her return to Westeros with an army of Dothraki? The plot only seems credible if Illyrio and Varys also know about Viserys' betrothal, and anticipate invading Westeros with a Dornish army and Dornish landing beaches.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

That’s a fucking wall of text.

First of all you contradict yourself. In the quote above you say “why would Doran …” and in a previous post (see directly below) you state

If they can force them to tell one tale they can force them to tell another.

No they hadn’t. Darkstar, Andrey Dalt and Sylvia Santager were all part of Knightly houses. They weren’t part of any important house nor where most of them important members of those houses. Andrey was the brother and heir to the Knight of Lemonwood (expandable) and Sylvia the heir to the Santagers and yet she was send away to marry an unimportant, old Estermont. The only one of note to their own houses was Darkstar as he is the head of his own house.

And the other member of their party was an orphan of the Greenblood.

My opinion of Doran as a player might be low but you must think that he’s retarded. Losing your seat does matter and hostages aren’t simply rescued or delayed. The strategy you propose would cost Dorne an immense toll in human lives and damage to property. Especially since Doran didn’t know when exactly Daenerys would return and what kind of firepower she would bring (does she take her armies? Can she control her dragons?)

If Doran actually thought that than why didn’t he open an all-out assault on the Lannister controlled part of the Kingdoms? If Tywin could ill afford it than he should be able to hurt the Lannisters and hold out long enough for Daenerys to save his ass. It would be inconvenient for Tywin that would be sure but for Doran it would be death sentence.

1) There are a lot more types of Poison (e.g. the manticore poison used by Oberyn)

2) Tyene isn’t just a poisoner. She’s a master poisoner. No normal master would have been able to conclusively tell wheter or not poison was used (especially since an autopsy by a Lannister friendly Maester would be impossible).

3) And a sword to the face isn’t suspicious?

1) There is no such thing as “reasonably” innocent. Even if Tywin would believe that Doran was completely innocent (which would be against anything we know of him) than Doran was still responsible for the death of a PRINCESS OF THE MOTHERFUCKING REALM dying on his watch. The only thing that could happen from then on was war. Touch a Lannister princess with a finger and lose your arm. Murder a Lannister princess and loose everything.

1. Yes it is a wall of text.

2. Ok, I see I contradicted myself here, and the theory of telling everyone to kill the princess was stupid.

3. I see nobles as any house rulers, but I recognize that the houses aren't too important. However, killing the group would alienate even more houses and raise more questions.

4. Losing a council seat matters little if you expect a regime change soon. Also, Doran had the entire group with the exception of Darkstar. Tywin would most likely ask for them, with others. But it would also take time for the order to be issued, time for the incident to get back to King's Landing, time for the order to get to Dorne, and, if you subscribe to a theory that Oberyn had poisoned Tywin, or at least was going to, Doran likely thought Tywin would be dead soon enough. That left Cersei. Even if Tywin was still alive and if he demanded other hostages, there are many options on hwo to keep them alive, or keep them away from King's Landing.

5. Because Doran knew the most he could do was hurt the armies. He could never win. His best card is the one of patience, knowing when the right time to strike is. So he preserves Dorne's strength, and waits for the trump card. But he was also aware of how he could affect Tywin's judgement.

6. Tyene could poison Myrcella, but my point was that maestars know the signs for lethal poisons. The most likely maestar to see her would be Doran's personal one, and he would likely see the poison, and tell it to Doran. So Doran has to confide another person in the poisoning, and has to convince him to stay quiet about it.

I would also like to point out that attempting to murder a princess is not that different to actually succeeding in the eyes of the judge. Since the only actions against Dorne has been rewarding them with Gregor's head and sending people to kill Darkstar, it would have been the same if she had been killed.

[Veltigar]

1. Yes it is a wall of text.

2. Ok, I see I contradicted myself here, and the theory of telling everyone to kill the princess was stupid.

Glad we agree :P

3. I see nobles as any house rulers, but I recognize that the houses aren't too important. However, killing the group would alienate even more houses and raise more questions.

Fair point. But the bodies could have been disposed of and then they could be listed as missing.

4. Losing a council seat matters little if you expect a regime change soon.

They would lose their inside man. It is also easier to manipulate things from inside the council than outside (e.g. LF, Varys, Aurane Waters, Oberyn, …). Lady Nym’s presence in the SC in tWoW will give Dorne a big strategic advantage for instance.

4. Losing a council seat matters little if you expect a regime change soon. Also, Doran had the entire group with the exception of Darkstar. Tywin would most likely ask for them, with others. But it would also take time for the order to be issued, time for the incident to get back to King's Landing, time for the order to get to Dorne, and, if you subscribe to a theory that Oberyn had poisoned Tywin, or at least was going to, Doran likely thought Tywin would be dead soon enough. That left Cersei. Even if Tywin was still alive and if he demanded other hostages, there are many options on hwo to keep them alive, or keep them away from King's Landing.

1)

Was Oberyn still alive?

2)

If Oberyn was still alive than Tywin has the perfect hostage right there. Throw him, Ellaria Sand and the other members of their company in the dungeons and wait for the other hostages and demands. If your demands are not met execute the RV and his company. It’s rather fitting don’t you think? A Prince of Dorne for a Princess of the Realm.

3)

Oberyn poisoning Tywin is bullshit.

4)

It would take time yet it would take even more time for Daenerys to land in Westeros so Doran is fucked.

5)

You do not taunt the lion and live.

5. Because Doran knew the most he could do was hurt the armies. He could never win. His best card is the one of patience, knowing when the right time to strike is. So he preserves Dorne's strength, and waits for the trump card. But he was also aware of how he could affect Tywin's judgement.

By showing Tywin what a good boy he was he would have been able to lull him to sleep. And then when Dany returned with Quentyn he could attack Tywin by surprise. Murdering Myrcella would be counterproductive because it would make Tywin suspicious and attract attention to Martell movements.

6. Tyene could poison Myrcella, but my point was that maestars know the signs for lethal poisons. The most likely maestar to see her would be Doran's personal one, and he would likely see the poison, and tell it to Doran. So Doran has to confide another person in the poisoning, and has to convince him to stay quiet about it.

1)

Doran’s maester is old. And old men tend to die suddenly.

2)

Maesters are often trained lapdogs. If Doran ordered his Maester to jump through hoops than he would do that.

3)

Again Tyene is a Master Poisoner. Oberyn learned the trade across the narrow sea and then learned it to her. I think that they know poisons that only the most skilled Maesters (let’s say one of those maesters who remain in Oldtown and train other maesters in the more common aspects of medicine).

I would also like to point out that attempting to murder a princess is not that different to actually succeeding in the eyes of the judge. Since the only actions against Dorne has been rewarding them with Gregor's head and sending people to kill Darkstar, it would have been the same if she had been killed.

1)

They only just learned of the gravity of Myrcella’s wounds in KL.

2)

KL isn’t in Lannister hands anymore. Not even in capable hands. And with the Ironborn invasion, the GC’s landing, Stannis success at the wall the Tyrells have a lot different fishes to fry as of now.

3)

There is a difference. Murder would ask immediate retribution (even from Tyrells), but a wound can be used as an excuse as to not look into things to closely since their armies are busy elsewhere now.

[Veltigar]

I think you're right otherwise: having re-read the chapter, Doran does seem to realise he miscalculated about Arianne, and underestimated her. I still wouldn't trust him to be telling Arianne everything any more than I would Tywin or Olenna.

Thank you. One remark though Olenna probably shares her plans with Margaery and probably Garlan to. They are the capable children and her favorites. And she’s basically grooming Margaery and to a lesser extent Garlan for command.

But I don't believe that Varys and Illyrio were completely absent from Dany and Viserys after Robert's Rebellion. If they're pulling for Aegon, and hoping to distract Robert with Dany Viserys, that would make sense, but why suddenly take them in and marry Dany off, intending to have her return to Westeros with an army of Dothraki? The plot only seems credible if Illyrio and Varys also know about Viserys' betrothal, and anticipate invading Westeros with a Dornish army and Dornish landing beaches.

I think that at the time of House Targaryens demise the members of House Blackfyre/Brightflame were all but trilled. Varys obviously didn’t want KL to be sacked since he advised King Aerys to keep the gates shut. After the sack they needed some time to adjust their plans, Varys had to work hard to ingratiate himself with the new regime so it were probably busy and hectic times for them. So, I think the Faegon plan was hatched only after the arrival of Dany and Viserys in Braavos. After that, as a side note, they included the real Targaryens into their plans because it provided some exciting benefits.

1) The question of Faegon legitimacy would never be raised if Daenerys and Viserys recognized Faegon as their nephew (that’s why I think Dany got three dragon eggs. If she and Viserys had met Faegon she would probably give him and Viserys and egg to symbolize the Targ union).

2) Dany marrying to Khal Drogo meant having a giant Khalesar on their side. The Khal would have supported Faegon and provided him with a big force.

3) Viserys was useful because he provided an extra change for an alliance cemented by marriage. In the ideal scenario (where tWot5K didn’t break out as early as it did) Faegon would have married Margaery and Viserys could have been married to Arianne/Asha/a Frey/….

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Glad we agree :P

Fair point. But the bodies could have been disposed of and then they could be listed as missing.

They would lose their inside man. It is also easier to manipulate things from inside the council than outside (e.g. LF, Varys, Aurane Waters, Oberyn, …). Lady Nym’s presence in the SC in tWoW will give Dorne a big strategic advantage for instance.

1)

Was Oberyn still alive?

2)

If Oberyn was still alive than Tywin has the perfect hostage right there. Throw him, Ellaria Sand and the other members of their company in the dungeons and wait for the other hostages and demands. If your demands are not met execute the RV and his company. It’s rather fitting don’t you think? A Prince of Dorne for a Princess of the Realm.

3)

Oberyn poisoning Tywin is bullshit.

4)

It would take time yet it would take even more time for Daenerys to land in Westeros so Doran is fucked.

5)

You do not taunt the lion and live.

By showing Tywin what a good boy he was he would have been able to lull him to sleep. And then when Dany returned with Quentyn he could attack Tywin by surprise. Murdering Myrcella would be counterproductive because it would make Tywin suspicious and attract attention to Martell movements.

1)

Doran’s maester is old. And old men tend to die suddenly.

2)

Maesters are often trained lapdogs. If Doran ordered his Maester to jump through hoops than he would do that.

3)

Again Tyene is a Master Poisoner. Oberyn learned the trade across the narrow sea and then learned it to her. I think that they know poisons that only the most skilled Maesters (let’s say one of those maesters who remain in Oldtown and train other maesters in the more common aspects of medicine).

1)

They only just learned of the gravity of Myrcella’s wounds in KL.

2)

KL isn’t in Lannister hands anymore. Not even in capable hands. And with the Ironborn invasion, the GC’s landing, Stannis success at the wall the Tyrells have a lot different fishes to fry as of now.

3)

There is a difference. Murder would ask immediate retribution (even from Tyrells), but a wound can be used as an excuse as to not look into things to closely since their armies are busy elsewhere now.

3. Still would alienate houses, and Doran could ill afford that.

4. I really do not see how it would have helped. Unless the person on the small council could find out battle plans and rush to reveal them, one in 7 is not enough to sway something. Even Kevan was concerned at the situation in the small council when it was 3 to 4.

5. They found out Oberyn died before the whole Arrianne plot. So no hostage there. The other hostages would be useful no doubt, but the time it took for word of Joffrey's death to word of Oberyn's death would have short. So the other hostages would be set free before word of what happened to Myrcella would reach King's Landing. I also believe Oberyn's death was the spark to set off Arrianne's plot, but it was set up before. As for Oberyn poisoning Tywin, it's a theory that he used tears of Lys and that's why Tywin stunk so much. I take it with a spoon of salt, but it's interesting.

6. Martell movements such as what? Staying in the Boneway? Doing nothing for days on end?

7. I doubt Doran would off his maestar, I see a bond between the two.

I can see how your theory makes sense, and to me, it's a small matter. Either way, Myrcella was wanted for dead, and Darkstar failed the attempt. Kinda tomatoes and tomahtoes. We don't even know if it will be something we will ever find out.

[tbc]

Thank you. One remark though Olenna probably shares her plans with Margaery and probably Garlan to. They are the capable children and her favorites. And she’s basically grooming Margaery and to a lesser extent Garlan for command.

I think that at the time of House Targaryens demise the members of House Blackfyre/Brightflame were all but trilled. Varys obviously didn’t want KL to be sacked since he advised King Aerys to keep the gates shut. After the sack they needed some time to adjust their plans, Varys had to work hard to ingratiate himself with the new regime so it were probably busy and hectic times for them. So, I think the Faegon plan was hatched only after the arrival of Dany and Viserys in Braavos. After that, as a side note, they included the real Targaryens into their plans because it provided some exciting benefits.

1) The question of Faegon legitimacy would never be raised if Daenerys and Viserys recognized Faegon as their nephew (that’s why I think Dany got three dragon eggs. If she and Viserys had met Faegon she would probably give him and Viserys and egg to symbolize the Targ union).

2) Dany marrying to Khal Drogo meant having a giant Khalesar on their side. The Khal would have supported Faegon and provided him with a big force.

3) Viserys was useful because he provided an extra change for an alliance cemented by marriage. In the ideal scenario (where tWot5K didn’t break out as early as it did) Faegon would have married Margaery and Viserys could have been married to Arianne/Asha/a Frey/….

The three dragon eggs is, I agree, too convenient. I don't know if this has been explored, but I struggle to see how Jorah could find, and afford, three dragon eggs. Given he was passing information to Varys around this time, he was definitely on Varys/Illyrio's radar, so even if it wasn't outright collusion between them, Jorah would be easy enough to manipulate.

The wider plot turns a lot on whether Aegon is genuine, or fake. If the latter, which seems likely (Blackfyre I assume), there are obvious attractions in unifying House Targaryen by mingling Targaryen and Blackfyre blood, and presumably unveiling either Viserys or Aegon with Blackfyre when they invade.

[Veltigar]

3. Still would alienate houses, and Doran could ill afford that.

Again knightly Houses. Doran wouldn’t like it but it’s hardly a big hurdle for him. If Ariannes company existed out of Fowlers, Yronwoods, Daynes (of Starfall) or any of the other Houses of note than yes, he would have a hard time. But he could always crush the Houses who had members that helped Arianne without much effort (+ would they even rise up? They seem pretty whipped. Look at what happened with the Arianne’s crew).

4. I really do not see how it would have helped. Unless the person on the small council could find out battle plans and rush to reveal them, one in 7 is not enough to sway something. Even Kevan was concerned at the situation in the small council when it was 3 to 4.

Aurane Waters: “I have a plan for new warships your Grace… I want to name new Captains your Grace” => One man and he was able to steal the Royal Fleet.

Randyll Tarly: “Jon Connington… An imposter without a doubt” => Most likely he’s a Blackfyre supporter. And he managed to downplay the Blackfyre treat.

Grandmaester Pycelle: “Open the gates your Grace. What could happen?” => and thus the city got sacked.

Varys & LF: Basically everything they have done so far when they were on the SC. They both stole money, placed their own men in the administration and fed the others with false information.

Conclusion: Having an agent on the SC is hugely in your favor.

5. They found out Oberyn died before the whole Arrianne plot. So no hostage there. The other hostages would be useful no doubt, but the time it took for word of Joffrey's death to word of Oberyn's death would have short. So the other hostages would be set free before word of what happened to Myrcella would reach King's Landing. I also believe Oberyn's death was the spark to set off Arrianne's plot, but it was set up before. As for Oberyn poisoning Tywin, it's a theory that he used tears of Lys and that's why Tywin stunk so much. I take it with a spoon of salt, but it's interesting.

Personally, I rebuke the Oberyn-poisoning-Tywin-theory. Tyrion just shot Tywin in the gut and the preparation of Tywins corpse was a hatchet job at best. That’s why he stunk so much. There is nothing more to it.

6. Martell movements such as what? Staying in the Boneway? Doing nothing for days on end?

Yeah, because massing armies in the Boneway and the Prince’s Pass is hardly suspicious… If KL was led by capable people (Tywin style) than those armies would be deemed extremely suspicious. Which in turn would lead to a higher scrutiny of other parts of the Dornish activities (KL would sent out more spies, …)

7. I doubt Doran would off his maestar, I see a bond between the two.

If their bond is that great than why wouldn’t Dorans old Maester pall help him in hiding Myrcella’s true cause of death (if he would find it in the first place).

I can see how your theory makes sense, and to me, it's a small matter. Either way, Myrcella was wanted for dead, and Darkstar failed the attempt. Kinda tomatoes and tomahtoes. We don't even know if it will be something we will ever find out.

Thank you. But I don’t really think it’s a small matter. For starters if Doran was involved in the actual attempt of murde it would really signify that he’s a bad player. Especially because he didn’t come clean and told Arianne about it. It would also hugely benefit Darkstars character if he was a free agent. And I think the storyline would be a lot more interesting. If Darkstar was just a random agent than the whole Balon/Obara/Areo storyline would be a wild goose chase without much relevance to the plot. However, if Darkstar turns out to be a free agent than he gains the advantage of being unpredictable. Doran needs to eliminate Darkstar because Darkstar could at this point easily turn himself against the Martell (and not just by telling the truth about Arianne’s plot but also by going after them physically). This is something that I think we’ll see in tWoW since I speculated that Darkstar would go after Doran in tWoW.

[tbc]

Thank you. But I don’t really think it’s a small matter. For starters if Doran was involved in the actual attempt of murde it would really signify that he’s a bad player. Especially because he didn’t come clean and told Arianne about it. It would also hugely benefit Darkstars character if he was a free agent. And I think the storyline would be a lot more interesting. If Darkstar was just a random agent than the whole Balon/Obara/Areo storyline would be a wild goose chase without much relevance to the plot. However, if Darkstar turns out to be a free agent than he gains the advantage of being unpredictable. Doran needs to eliminate Darkstar because Darkstar could at this point easily turn himself against the Martell (and not just by telling the truth about Arianne’s plot but also by going after them physically). This is something that I think we’ll see in tWoW since I speculated that Darkstar would go after Doran in tWoW.

Each House/Kingdom seems to have one genuinely psychotic/nasty/dangerously unhinged minor noble too. Ramsey in the North, Gregor etc, and Darkstar makes more sense as an arrogant, unhinged knight than as an agent for another power.

And I personally think that Doran is in a potentially weak position. He's lost Oberyn, his principal advisor and military leader, is reacting to events he can't control in Dorne (Myrcella plot) and outside (Aegon) and has mustered two large armies in the Prince and Boneway that he can't personally lead, and which Darkstar is very close to should be break free.

[Veltigar]

The three dragon eggs is, I agree, too convenient. I don't know if this has been explored, but I struggle to see how Jorah could find, and afford, three dragon eggs. Given he was passing information to Varys around this time, he was definitely on Varys/Illyrio's radar, so even if it wasn't outright collusion between them, Jorah would be easy enough to manipulate.

The dragon eggs were a gift by Illyrio. Ser Jorah gave some books about the 7 Kingdoms.

The wider plot turns a lot on whether Aegon is genuine, or fake. If the latter, which seems likely (Blackfyre I assume), there are obvious attractions in unifying House Targaryen by mingling Targaryen and Blackfyre blood, and presumably unveiling either Viserys or Aegon with Blackfyre when they invade.

I agree. And Faegon is obviously a fake. Personally, my money is on shared Blackfyre/Brightflame heritage but one thing is for sure he’s a fake.

I don’t know about the mingling of Targ and Blackfyre blood though. Dany was useful as a gift to get Drogo on their side and I don’t think they ever wanted to marry her to Faegon. I mean aTarg would still sit on the throne then you know. After the birth of the dragons of course, things changed. They might not have wanted a Targ on the throne (both Blackfyre and Brightflame have reasons to hate the Targaryens), but they could impossibly pass on the chance of getting a dragon.

I also wonder about Blackfyre. On the one hand it’s seen as representing the realm, on the other hand it also has the stain of rebellion and false claim attached to it. I don’t think it would have been a wise PR move to give Faegon the sword. The support of the GC is already suspicious but whipping out Blackfyre would probably be seen as prove that he’s a false claimant.

It wouldn’t surprise me actually if Blackfyre would turn up in the hands of Dany, the true claimant to the Throne. If we assume that Illyrio has it and since we can assume that Dany will honor the agreement that Barristan and Quentyn had with the Tattered Prince, she’ll probably wind up in Pentos on her way to the Seven Kingdoms. If Tyrion by then broke the word of Faegon suspected illegitimacy and Illyrio’s envolvement therein she might want to have a word with him.

If Illyrio confesses and gives her Blackfyre we know without a doubt that Faegon is a fake.

[tbc]

The dragon eggs were a gift by Illyrio. Ser Jorah gave some books about the 7 Kingdoms.

I agree. And Faegon is obviously a fake. Personally, my money is on shared Blackfyre/Brightflame heritage but one thing is for sure he’s a fake.

I don’t know about the mingling of Targ and Blackfyre blood though. Dany was useful as a gift to get Drogo on their side and I don’t think they ever wanted to marry her to Faegon. I mean aTarg would still sit on the throne then you know. After the birth of the dragons of course, things changed. They might not have wanted a Targ on the throne (both Blackfyre and Brightflame have reasons to hate the Targaryens), but they could impossibly pass on the chance of getting a dragon.

I also wonder about Blackfyre. On the one hand it’s seen as representing the realm, on the other hand it also has the stain of rebellion and false claim attached to it. I don’t think it would have been a wise PR move to give Faegon the sword. The support of the GC is already suspicious but whipping out Blackfyre would probably be seen as prove that he’s a false claimant.

It wouldn’t surprise me actually if Blackfyre would turn up in the hands of Dany, the true claimant to the Throne. If we assume that Illyrio has it and since we can assume that Dany will honor the agreement that Barristan and Quentyn had with the Tattered Prince, she’ll probably wind up in Pentos on her way to the Seven Kingdoms. If Tyrion by then broke the word of Faegon suspected illegitimacy and Illyrio’s envolvement therein she might want to have a word with him.

If Illyrio confesses and gives her Blackfyre we know without a doubt that Faegon is a fake.

I wonder, with the Blackfyre and Brightflame, though, whether the hostility to orthodox Targaryens isn't altered by Robert's Rebellion? The one thing that binds every Valyrian house, irrespective of their rivalries and conflicts, is a belief in the superiority of Valryian blood and Valyrian rule. I think cadet and splinter Targaryen houses would sooner see a reunited Targaryen house on the Iron Throne than see a non-Valyrian house.

My understanding of Blackfyre is that Bittersteel took it with him when he fled to the Free Cities and founded the GC, and that is was last seen with Maelys on the Stepstones. In which case, given that Aerys would have kept it if he'd reclaimed it, it must logically have been with the GC after 257. It's possible that it was traded with Illyrio for something, but the Captain-General mentioned in ADwD that some contracts are in "blood" rather than "ink" (which reinforces the Aegon/Blackfyre link hugely): it's more likely that it's remained with the GC so they can fulfil the contract in "blood", which I assume is placing a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne.

Assuming that the GC or JonCon has it, and that Aegon will be using it, I don't see that it presents a problem for Aegon. It might have done before Robert's Rebellion, when Targaryens were still on the throne, but most Targaryen loyalists would prefer a Blackfyre Targaryen to a non-Targaryen. Blackfyre still confers immense prestige, and the obvious hint that he's replicating Aegon's conquest, onto Aegon.

[Veltigar]

I wonder, with the Blackfyre and Brightflame, though, whether the hostility to orthodox Targaryens isn't altered by Robert's Rebellion? The one thing that binds every Valyrian house, irrespective of their rivalries and conflicts, is a belief in the superiority of Valryian blood and Valyrian rule. I think cadet and splinter Targaryen houses would sooner see a reunited Targaryen house on the Iron Throne than see a non-Valyrian house.

My understanding of Blackfyre is that Bittersteel took it with him when he fled to the Free Cities and founded the GC, and that is was last seen with Maelys on the Stepstones. In which case, given that Aerys would have kept it if he'd reclaimed it, it must logically have been with the GC after 257. It's possible that it was traded with Illyrio for something, but the Captain-General mentioned in ADwD that some contracts are in "blood" rather than "ink" (which reinforces the Aegon/Blackfyre link hugely): it's more likely that it's remained with the GC so they can fulfil the contract in "blood", which I assume is placing a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne.

Assuming that the GC or JonCon has it, and that Aegon will be using it, I don't see that it presents a problem for Aegon. It might have done before Robert's Rebellion, when Targaryens were still on the throne, but most Targaryen loyalists would prefer a Blackfyre Targaryen to a non-Targaryen. Blackfyre still confers immense prestige, and the obvious hint that he's replicating Aegon's conquest, onto Aegon.

The Realm bled during the Blackfyre rebellions. I don’t think a true Targ loyalist would support a Blackfyre. Otherwise why raise Faegon to believe that he’s Targaryen instead of letting him relish in his Blackfyre and Brightflame heritage. The Targaryen line is seen as the one true line.

All the others are seen as Usurpers who laid waste to the Realm for their own selfish reasons. Therefore letting Faegon pose as a Targaryen makes him more than just a claimant, he’s a savior.

A new father to the realm as it were.

The hatred harbored by Blackfyre’s and Brightflame’s for the Targ is very much still alive.

In fact I think the new generations harbor an even greater judge towards the Targaryen than the old ones.

For starters Blackfyre’s (Because Daeron the Good was supposedly not Aegon IV son) and Brightflame’s (because Aerion the Monstrous was the older brother) consider themselves to be the true royal family. Therefore they hate everyone who challenges their claim (Baratheon, Targ, Lannister, etc.).

But they hate the Targs even more because they were directly responsible for their families ruin.

We see this clearly in Illyrio’s account of how he an Varys met. At the time Varys met Illyrio he was a poor impoverished Bravo, spending his days in a dump of a bar drinking cheap wine.

After Maelys the Monstrous died, the male line of the Blackfyres ended. Maelys probably left a daughter with a concubine behind or something of the sort. For that daughter live wouldn’t have been easy. She had no one to protect here, Maelys wealth was probably stolen, the GC – who would normally protect her- lay in ruins and everybody associated with the band of nine would need to watch their back. That daughter was probably Illyrio’s mother and her life was probably short and brutish.

It’s even more clear along the Brightflame side of the family. Varys and Serra were dirt poor. Varys got castrated and Serra was forced into prostitution. And that all because their rightful place as the ruling family of Westeros was usurped by the line of the younger brother of their ancestor.

Varys usually justifies his crimes and general ruthlessness by saying that “it’s for the children” but who is he really talking about? Children in general? (like naïve readers who believe that Faegon is real assume) No of course not. Varys had the tong of some of his little birds removed and as a poster in another thread once remarked “Little birds don’t retire”. Varys clearly doesn’t care for children in general. So every time he mentions that what he does is for the children, he’s actually talking about himself and Serra. Varys is driven to get Faegon on the IT because it would make all the pain, horrors and hardships he and his sister had to go through worthwhile. It would be the ultimate revenge of a man who quite literally lost his own future to have one of his own lay claim on their enemies seat.

JonCon clearly isn’t in the possession of the sword. Otherwise we would have known about it already. I don’t think the GC has it either, since JonCon (who was very close with the previous leader of the GC) hasn’t said anything about it. I refer to the first part of my answer as to why they don’t let him wield Blackfyre. On top of the reason I stated there I would also think that the symbolic meaning of the Sword isn’t all that significant. Aegon conquest was associated with his dragons not with his sword. So, Faegon could wave the sword around all he want it still wouldn’t matter since Dany will always be seen as Aegon returned thanks to her dragons. Also, Blackfyre is no longer a signal of a strong, unified realm. Thanks to the Blackfyre rebellions the sword is now more linked to bloody civil war and defeat. Not really a message a new conquering King wants to invoke.

I think that the Sword is hidden somewhere in Illyrio’s manse (since Illyrio as a Blackfyre and Faegons father he should hold on to it). A crackpot theory I had about the sword is that it might be hidden in the statue of young Illyrio (but since that statue probably holds a Braavosi style blade it’s probably not true). I think that Illyrio’s intention is to present the Sword as a gift to the King once he’s firmly in charge of KL. If Faegon takes KL than he’s strong enough to take the rest.

Then the sword could possibly become a symbol of a united Kingdom again.

But I think that Dany will take Pentos before Faegon takes KL in tWoW.

If she “interrogates” Illyrio (torture obviously) he’ll spill the beans and show her the sword.

Blackfyre ending up with Dany would be majorly ironic. Especially since Dany is most likely going to land in the Vale. Therefore Dany, the true Targaryen would be strongly linked to the Blackfyres (who wielded the sword and who landed in the Vale when they made their first attempt on Westeros after Daemons death on the Redgrass Field).

Other opportunities to return the blade to Faegon are his wedding (mimicking the eggs Illyrio gave to Dany) or right after he takes SE. But I think the logistics wouldn’t add up + since he’s not majorly strong the reputation of the Sword would still overshadow his own reputation at those moments.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

The Realm bled during the Blackfyre rebellions. I don’t think a true Targ loyalist would support a Blackfyre. Otherwise why raise Faegon to believe that he’s Targaryen instead of letting him relish in his Blackfyre and Brightflame heritage. The Targaryen line is seen as the one true line.

All the others are seen as Usurpers who laid waste to the Realm for their own selfish reasons. Therefore letting Faegon pose as a Targaryen makes him more than just a claimant, he’s a savior.

A new father to the realm as it were.

JonCon clearly isn’t in the possession of the sword. Otherwise we would have known about it already.

1. Lines become very blurry over time and what results is not so black and white as it once was. The Golden Company's mission in life and very existence were perpetuated on Bittersteel's dream of returning to Westeros and seating a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre on the iron throne. As time has gone by, the mission now is simply to return home and place a dragon on the throne.

The small folk could care less actually. In actuality, its the high lords and lesser nobility that must be placated. Remember that powerful houses like House Yronwood rode with the Blackfyres on more than one occasion. Half the realm rose with Daemon Blackfyre. Being on the winning side and improving the lot of your family/house are still very tempting inducements.

Also, remember that Blackfyres are legitimized Targaryens, just from a junior branch. Their claim to the throne is very real. I always wondered why Varys didn't just promote Aegon as the Blackfyre heir that he really is. The friends in the Reach that Laswell Peake mentioned are likely friends to the Golden Company and house Blackfyre. If the Targaryens still have loyalists, it makes sense that the Blackfyres would still have loyalists as well.

My guess is that Varys didn't just want any old heir (Blackfyre or otherwise), he wanted a son of the beloved Rhaegar Targaryen. The golden boy that everyone loved and still loves through memory and thought. The only person who has every slandered Rhaegar is Robert and we know his reasons. Even Ned and Jaime still think of him with respect. Its more telling for Ned, whose sister was supposedly abducted and raped countless times by Rhaegar. Rebellions are more about probability of success and opportunity more than anything else.

2. In the Tyrion spoiler chapters that preceded the release of ADWD, Illyrio tells Duck that he must not forget the sword that is in the chest, along with armor, for when Aegon meets with Dany. Why would Illyrio highlight any old sword for meeting with Dany? He would not. The sword was last seen in the hands of Bittersteel as he took it up after Daemon fell on the Red Grass Field.

Its even more telling that this portion was edited out by GRRM's publisher before release. Connington tells the company that they will not release Aegon's banner, armor, hair color, etc., until after Storm's End has fallen. I'll bet anything that Blackfyre is in one of those chest. I don't know if those old spoilers are still available on the board.

[Veltigar]

1. Lines become very blurry over time and what results is not so black and white as it once was. The Golden Company's mission in life and very existence were perpetuated on Bittersteel's dream of returning to Westeros and seating a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre on the iron throne. As time has gone by, the mission now is simply to return home and place a dragon on the throne.

The bolded part is bullshit. I can understand the GC dropping the mission of seating a Blackfyre on the Throne and just fight for a return to their homeland, but them deciding that their new mission is “to place any dragon on the throne” would go directly against the founding ideals of the GC. And we have seen that the GC is very dedicated to its traditions.

The small folk could care less actually. In actuality, its the high lords and lesser nobility that must be placated. Remember that powerful houses like House Yronwood rode with the Blackfyres on more than one occasion. Half the realm rose with Daemon Blackfyre. Being on the winning side and improving the lot of your family/house are still very tempting inducements.

When did I mention the small folk? Don’t read what isn’t there.

Also, remember that Blackfyres are legitimized Targaryens, just from a junior branch. Their claim to the throne is very real. I always wondered why Varys didn't just promote Aegon as the Blackfyre heir that he really is. The friends in the Reach that Laswell Peake mentioned are likely friends to the Golden Company and house Blackfyre. If the Targaryens still have loyalists, it makes sense that the Blackfyres would still have loyalists as well.

A very junior branch with no real claim to the throne. Not at the time they were founded (Daeron and his sons came before them) and certainly not now (Stannis has a better claim on the IT solely based on his Targaryen grandmother). A claim to the realm that suffered greatly because they tried to usurp the throne from the main branch and failed. Blackfyre’s aren’t able to boast a high success rate. And although there certainly are still Blackfyre loyalists left, they’ll be less numerous than Targ supporters (time passes, people forget). And realistically they’ll be less powerful than most Targ loyalists (since Bloodraven punished all who chose Daemons side).

My guess is that Varys didn't just want any old heir (Blackfyre or otherwise), he wanted a son of the beloved Rhaegar Targaryen. The golden boy that everyone loved and still loves through memory and thought. The only person who has every slandered Rhaegar is Robert and we know his reasons. Even Ned and Jaime still think of him with respect. Its more telling for Ned, whose sister was supposedly abducted and raped countless times by Rhaegar. Rebellions are more about probability of success and opportunity more than anything else.

Although I agree with what you stated above (being Rhaegars child is definitely a pro). The name Targaryen itself also has a huge appeal. Like I stated before, the Blackfyre’s don’t exactly have a great track record. If the kid comes out as a Blackfyre he’ll immediately be burdened by the past. Also you underestimate the impact of civil war. The Blackfyre rebellion was a very long and very bloody affair. Many Lords would be weary to support a Blackfyre. If they dress Faegon up as Targaryen they aren’t affected by that taint (and the GC could give hints to their friends so that Faegon wouldn’t lose the support of the Blackfyre loyalists).

Another important thing to keep in mind is that the last Targaryen King (or to be more precise his Hand Tywin) kept the realm peaceful and stable for a long time. After Robert took over, things slowly went to shit until it ended in the giant clusterfuck of tWot5K. There are more than enough Westerosi who are now saying that King Aerys reign wasn’t that bad and who’d gladly support a Targaryen bid to the throne, even if it was a bid by Dany or Viserys (until the moment of course they realize that Viserys is batshit crazy).

The final reason why it was wise to disguise Faegon as a Targaryen are Dany and Viserys. If Faegon presents himself as a Blackfyre than Dany and Viserys would stand in their way. Targaryen supporters would oppose Faegon just as much as Baratheons would do (in fact it wouldn’t be surprising if the common enemy would drive Targaryens and rebels together thus solidifying their grip on the Seven Kingdoms). By posing as Rhaegars child however, Faegon gains the allegiance of Viserys and Dany. And that are two very valuable chips in the game (as is illustrated by Dany’s hand getting them the allegiance of a huge Khalesar. Viserys would also have been valuable to make an additional marriage alliance).

2. In the Tyrion spoiler chapters that preceded the release of ADWD, Illyrio tells Duck that he must not forget the sword that is in the chest, along with armor, for when Aegon meets with Dany. Why would Illyrio highlight any old sword for meeting with Dany? He would not. The sword was last seen in the hands of Bittersteel as he took it up after Daemon fell on the Red Grass Field.

Its even more telling that this portion was edited out by GRRM's publisher before release. Connington tells the company that they will not release Aegon's banner, armor, hair color, etc., until after Storm's End has fallen. I'll bet anything that Blackfyre is in one of those chest. I don't know if those old spoilers are still available on the board.

About the bolded part I think it’s clear that Maelys the Monstrous was the last one to wield the sword.

About the rest I would just say that I would be unpleasantly surprised if came out that Illyrio trusted someone as dumb as Duck with one of the most treasured heirlooms of his line.

It would also be a huge mistake to present yourself to the Targaryen Mother of Dragons backed up by the GC and wielding Blackfyre while still pretending to be Rhaegars son. How on earth could Dany not see that as someone trying to steal her throne from underneath her. Most likely the sword was just that. A fancy, flashy sword just like Faegons show armor, as to underline his regal claim.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

1. Then why bend the knee to a supposed Targaryen? I'm assuming you read ADWD. The men of the GC are tired of waiting on Illyrio and his schemes. They want to go home to fight and reclaim their lost lands and possibly gain some new ones. A red dragon is just as good as a black dragon for their purpose.

2. My responses do not have to constrained to the four corners of your brain. I am free to use whatever examples are necessary to make my points.

3. No real claim? Very junior branch? You do know the Blackfyres are the legitimized sons and daughters of King Aegon IV. I think a junior branch mixed with royal and high noble birth is a serious contender for the throne. I agree that Daeron and his heirs had the legal right, but that did not matter to the half of the realm that rose in rebellion. King Aegon chose Daemon as his heir and gave him the ancestral sword. The certainly rank higher than any Baratheon.

The first rebellion failed only because Daemon stopped to see to a fallen King's Guard and then his fallen sons. This gave Baelor Breakspear and his Stormlands/Dornish contingent the time to take Daemon's host in the rear. Had Daemon pressed on, he would have overwhelmed Maekar and rode to King's Landing unopposed. Subsequent attempts have failed because it is simply too hard to restart a rebellion of that magnitude.

4. The Blackfyre Rebellion happened roughly 104 years ago (196 AL). The wounds from that affair have surely healed. The latter part of Aerys' reign was a disaster. He and his madness were the main reasons for House Targaryen's fall from power. That madness is attached to Dany and Viserys. We know Visery would have been just as bad as his father.

Again, the small folk could care less who sits the throne. Its the nobility that must be on board. They can be sold on a young, tractable and capable young ruler. The Baratheon/Lannister reign has been a disaster. Robert took the realm from overflowing with gold, to bankruptcy in just 17 years. The Lannisters have been just as bad. They are still hated for the sack of KL. The Targaryens are prone to madness, why not break the chain?

5. Ilyrio is not trusting Duck. He is trusting Jon Conningotn. All Duck as to do is bring the chests, which he did. I think its pretty clear that Blackfyre is among the goods. If you choose to think its a regular sword, you are free to do so.

[Veltigar]

1. Then why bend the knee to a supposed Targaryen? I'm assuming you read ADWD. The men of the GC are tired of waiting on Illyrio and his schemes. They want to go home to fight and reclaim their lost lands and possibly gain some new ones. A red dragon is just as good as a black dragon for their purpose.

The top of the GC knows that Faegon isn’t real. Ever wondered why a man like Harry Strickland became their leader? Because of his military prowess? No. Because of his pretty eyes? No. Because he was willing to work with Varys and Illyrio and their Faegon plot? Yes. Don’t you get it, the GC are famous for never breaking their word and upholding their contracts. They have a duty to place a Blackfyre on the IT. They will not forsake it.

2. My responses do not have to constrained to the four corners of your brain. I am free to use whatever examples are necessary to make my points.

That would be true if you were making a statement of your own. If you reply to someone else’s point than you have to stick to their words to compose your answer. Instead you chose to invent things that I never said. You ducked the point by talking about something else.

The first rebellion failed only because Daemon stopped to see to a fallen King's Guard and then his fallen sons. This gave Baelor Breakspear and his Stormlands/Dornish contingent the time to take Daemon's host in the rear. Had Daemon pressed on, he would have overwhelmed Maekar and rode to King's Landing unopposed. Subsequent attempts have failed because it is simply too hard to restart a rebellion of that magnitude.

The first rebellion was doomed to fail after the death of Daemons best commander Ser Quentyn “Fireball” Ball. There is no reason to assume that if Daemon hadn’t stopped he would have won the war. He might have won the battle, but that doesn’t mean he would have won the war. Not that it really mattered though, Daemon was an idiot to take that much time to take care of a foe (even if it was a courageous one) and an even bigger idiot to take his two eldest sons (who were like 12) with him in the heat of battle. Better proof that he wasn’t fit to be a King is hard to come across.

4. The Blackfyre Rebellion happened roughly 104 years ago (196 AL). The wounds from that affair have surely healed. The latter part of Aerys' reign was a disaster. He and his madness were the main reasons for House Targaryen's fall from power. That madness is attached to Dany and Viserys. We know Visery would have been just as bad as his father.

The initial Blackfyre Rebellion happened than but it wasn’t the last. There was Daemon II attempt, there were IIRC two other attempted invasions (one landing in the Vale) and then finally the attack by Maelys the Monstrous. + the Kingdoms were restless for many years because the land was still plagued by rebellious lords (IIRC Maekar I died against one of those), the Ironborn let themselves of the chain and there was the great Skagos Rebellion. All things that happened because of the jealousy of Bittersteel, the ambition of Fireball and the naivety of Daemon.

Aerys reign however, was one of relative peace. The latter years had RR but before that we know only of the Defiance of Duskendale. Tywin Lannister made the realm bloom during the early years of Aerys II reign and that period of bloom isn’t forgotten yet. IIRC some people have already expressed that they wished a Targaryen back on the throne.

Again, the small folk could care less who sits the throne. Its the nobility that must be on board. They can be sold on a young, tractable and capable young ruler. The Baratheon/Lannister reign has been a disaster. Robert took the realm from overflowing with gold, to bankruptcy in just 17 years. The Lannisters have been just as bad. They are still hated for the sack of KL. The Targaryens are prone to madness, why not break the chain?

You clearly don’t understand the family lines in this series. It isn’t the name Targaryen that makes Targs mad, it’s their blood. Blood that they share with the Blackfyre’s. And the Blackfyre’s are equally prone to madness or do you think that Maelys the Monstrous was a sain person.

And if a tractable, young ruler is the only thing that sways the nobility than he’ll never wrestle control away from King Tommen.

5. Ilyrio is not trusting Duck. He is trusting Jon Conningotn. All Duck as to do is bring the chests, which he did. I think its pretty clear that Blackfyre is among the goods. If you choose to think its a regular sword, you are free to do so.

If anyone should not be trusted with Blackfyre than it’s JonCon. If JonCon realizes that the heritage of his sweet Prince Rhaegar is being soiled by Illyrio and Varys and that he himself was manipulated and used by them his wroth would be considerable. He would most likely kill Faegon because his survival would be a permanent mockery of Rhaegar’s memory.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

The top of the GC knows that Faegon isn’t real. Ever wondered why a man like Harry Strickland became their leader? Because of his military prowess? No. Because of his pretty eyes? No. Because he was willing to work with Varys and Illyrio and their Faegon plot? Yes. Don’t you get it, the GC are famous for never breaking their word and upholding their contracts. They have a duty to place a Blackfyre on the IT. They will not forsake it.

That would be true if you were making a statement of your own. If you reply to someone else’s point than you have to stick to their words to compose your answer. Instead you chose to invent things that I never said. You ducked the point by talking about something else.

The first rebellion was doomed to fail after the death of Daemons best commander Ser Quentyn “Fireball” Ball. There is no reason to assume that if Daemon hadn’t stopped he would have won the war. He might have won the battle, but that doesn’t mean he would have won the war. Not that it really mattered though, Daemon was an idiot to take that much time to take care of a foe (even if it was a courageous one) and an even bigger idiot to take his two eldest sons (who were like 12) with him in the heat of battle. Better proof that he wasn’t fit to be a King is hard to come across.

The initial Blackfyre Rebellion happened than but it wasn’t the last. There was Daemon II attempt, there were IIRC two other attempted invasions (one landing in the Vale) and then finally the attack by Maelys the Monstrous. + the Kingdoms were restless for many years because the land was still plagued by rebellious lords (IIRC Maekar I died against one of those), the Ironborn let themselves of the chain and there was the great Skagos Rebellion. All things that happened because of the jealousy of Bittersteel, the ambition of Fireball and the naivety of Daemon.

Aerys reign however, was one of relative peace. The latter years had RR but before that we know only of the Defiance of Duskendale. Tywin Lannister made the realm bloom during the early years of Aerys II reign and that period of bloom isn’t forgotten yet. IIRC some people have already expressed that they wished a Targaryen back on the throne.

You clearly don’t understand the family lines in this series. It isn’t the name Targaryen that makes Targs mad, it’s their blood. Blood that they share with the Blackfyre’s. And the Blackfyre’s are equally prone to madness or do you think that Maelys the Monstrous was a sain person.

And if a tractable, young ruler is the only thing that sways the nobility than he’ll never wrestle control away from King Tommen.

If anyone should not be trusted with Blackfyre than it’s JonCon. If JonCon realizes that the heritage of his sweet Prince Rhaegar is being soiled by Illyrio and Varys and that he himself was manipulated and used by them his wroth would be considerable. He would most likely kill Faegon because his survival would be a permanent mockery of Rhaegar’s memory.

You have your version of events and thats fine. We can just agree to disagree.

[Veltigar]

You have your version of events and thats fine. We can just agree to disagree.

One question though am I wrong to assume that you are a Blackfyre supporter?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

One question though am I wrong to assume that you are a Blackfyre supporter?

Blackfyre no....Targaryen...hell yes!!!! I want restoration of the original royal house. To that end, Jon or Dany are my hopes to sit the iron throne by the time the series is over.

[Veltigar]

Blackfyre no....Targaryen...hell yes!!!! I want restoration of the original royal house. To that end, Jon or Dany are my hopes to sit the iron throne by the time the series is over.

Really? Wow, I wouldn't have guessed that, I thought you were a Faegon supporter. Glad to see more love for Jon and Dany though.

[HodorForKing]

I don't know if this was already asked here in this topic because I haven't read all the five pages of posts here, but please can someone explain me why everyone thinks that Hotah is not a strong fighter? I know he have not killed Arys Oakheart alone, but he is the captain of Dorans guard, was trained by the bearded priests, and all indicates that he considers himself a good fighter. I know that this self-consideration its not enough to say he is a skilled warrior, but he definetely is not an arrogant type. Why people assume him to be weaker then Darkstar? Oberyn said it was a pity he didn't killed Gerold; this indicates that it wouldn,t be hard for the red viper to kill him, so why would it be difficult for hotah to do it? (sorry for my bad english)