Areo Hotah POV in prologue, will be killed by Darkstar

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I don't know if this was already asked here in this topic because I haven't read all the five pages of posts here, but please can someone explain me why everyone thinks that Hotah is not a strong fighter? I know he have not killed Arys Oakheart alone, but he is the captain of Dorans guard, was trained by the bearded priests, and all indicates that he considers himself a good fighter. I know that this self-consideration its not enough to say he is a skilled warrior, but he definetely is not an arrogant type. Why people assume him to be weaker then Darkstar? Oberyn said it was a pity he didn't killed Gerold; this indicates that it wouldn,t be hard for the red viper to kill him, so why would it be difficult for hotah to do it? (sorry for my bad english)

1. From the books, all evidence points to Areo being a top-notch fighter. He clearly measures up all of the Sand Snakes, Arys Oakheart, and Ser Balon Swann.

2. Darkstar is considered to be the most dangerous man in Dorne. This could mean many things. He is certainly highly skilled by all accounts, but is also likely an underhanded and dirty fighter.

When it comes down to it, I couldn't say who would win. Obarra is also in the equation, as well as whatever troops Doran sent. Why some consider Areo weak in beyond me.

[Veltigar]

1. From the books, all evidence points to Areo being a top-notch fighter. He clearly measures up all of the Sand Snakes, Arys Oakheart, and Ser Balon Swann.

2. Darkstar is considered to be the most dangerous man in Dorne. This could mean many things. He is certainly highly skilled by all accounts, but is also likely an underhanded and dirty fighter.

When it comes down to it, I couldn't say who would win. Obarra is also in the equation, as well as whatever troops Doran sent. Why some consider Areo weak in beyond me.

1. I agree that Areo is a very skilled fighter. He was way better than Ser Arys and although you can’t really compare his fighting style with the style of the Sand Snakes (save for Obara) he would easily best all of them (except for Tyene because of her poison). However I don’t think he’s that much better than Ser Balon. For starters Areo already states that Balon is a way better fighter than Arys, just by the looks of it. We know that Ser Balon is one of the best archers in Westeros but I think the real thing that makes Ser Balon dangerous is his prowess with the flail. Just like Areo’s long axe it’s a very unusual weapon and it takes a lot of skill to master it properly (even more than the long axe I’d imagine). I think a matchup between those two would be very interesting. We don’t get many flail vs. long axe fights.

2. I thought that underhanded and dirty was the Dornish way of fighting. We have the Red Viper using poison and that trick with his shield. Then there is the guerilla warfare against the dragons. Tyene using poison and Lady Nim using throwing knifes. Besides do not all characters fight dirty when their survival is at stake?

I have a hunch that Darkstar is one of the best swordfighters in the whole of Westeros. I know we haven’t seen him fight yet but given the fact that he’s been called the most dangerous man in Dorne by a man who knows what ‘dangerous’ actually meant + the fact that he’s a Dayne (I know one of HH not SF and we don’t know how closely they are related to Ser Arthurs main branch but they seem to produce some outstanding fighters).

Therefore my hunch is that Darkstar is a way better fighter than Areo (not saying that Areo is bad, he’s very good but Darkstar is better). As for Obara, I think she’s clearly the weakest link in the trio Areo/Balon/Obara (IIRC Areo remarks that she isn’t as tough as she thinks she is) and the weakest fighter of the adult Sand Snakes. I’m pretty certain that she won’t survive her encounters with Darkstar. Areo and Balon together should be enough to take down Darkstar, but they’ll take hits themselves no doubt avout it. Plus Darkstar actually has some things going for him:

1) Home field advantage. They are going to clash with him on his own lands. Darkstar knows where best to ambush them or pick his fights.

2) Darkstars soldiers will probably stick with him, thus cancelling out the guards advantage the hunters have

3) Obara, Areo and Balon aren’t exactly the three musketeers. They’ll probably endlessly quarrel and fight about who leads them (especially Obara) and what to do. And they won’t fight together like a well-oiled machine.

4) Just a theory but since Darkstar seems to be so engrossed with getting out of the shadow of Ser Arthur and make his presence known to the world he might try to steal Dawn. He passes Starfall on the way to High Hermitage and it would be a great way to re-introduce the sword in the series. And Darkstar armed with Dawn would probably be able to take on Balon and Areo together.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

1. I agree that Areo is a very skilled fighter. He was way better than Ser Arys and although you can’t really compare his fighting style with the style of the Sand Snakes (save for Obara) he would easily best all of them (except for Tyene because of her poison). However I don’t think he’s that much better than Ser Balon. For starters Areo already states that Balon is a way better fighter than Arys, just by the looks of it. We know that Ser Balon is one of the best archers in Westeros but I think the real thing that makes Ser Balon dangerous is his prowess with the flail. Just like Areo’s long axe it’s a very unusual weapon and it takes a lot of skill to master it properly (even more than the long axe I’d imagine). I think a matchup between those two would be very interesting. We don’t get many flail vs. long axe fights.

2. I thought that underhanded and dirty was the Dornish way of fighting. We have the Red Viper using poison and that trick with his shield. Then there is the guerilla warfare against the dragons. Tyene using poison and Lady Nim using throwing knifes. Besides do not all characters fight dirty when their survival is at stake?

I have a hunch that Darkstar is one of the best swordfighters in the whole of Westeros. I know we haven’t seen him fight yet but given the fact that he’s been called the most dangerous man in Dorne by a man who knows what ‘dangerous’ actually meant + the fact that he’s a Dayne (I know one of HH not SF and we don’t know how closely they are related to Ser Arthurs main branch but they seem to produce some outstanding fighters).

Therefore my hunch is that Darkstar is a way better fighter than Areo (not saying that Areo is bad, he’s very good but Darkstar is better). As for Obara, I think she’s clearly the weakest link in the trio Areo/Balon/Obara (IIRC Areo remarks that she isn’t as tough as she thinks she is) and the weakest fighter of the adult Sand Snakes. I’m pretty certain that she won’t survive her encounters with Darkstar. Areo and Balon together should be enough to take down Darkstar, but they’ll take hits themselves no doubt avout it. Plus Darkstar actually has some things going for him:

1) Home field advantage. They are going to clash with him on his own lands. Darkstar knows where best to ambush them or pick his fights.

2) Darkstars soldiers will probably stick with him, thus cancelling out the guards advantage the hunters have

3) Obara, Areo and Balon aren’t exactly the three musketeers. They’ll probably endlessly quarrel and fight about who leads them (especially Obara) and what to do. And they won’t fight together like a well-oiled machine.

4) Just a theory but since Darkstar seems to be so engrossed with getting out of the shadow of Ser Arthur and make his presence known to the world he might try to steal Dawn. He passes Starfall on the way to High Hermitage and it would be a great way to re-introduce the sword in the series. And Darkstar armed with Dawn would probably be able to take on Balon and Areo together.

1. I said he measured them, as in he accurately measured their fighting abilities. I don't think he would easily defeat Ser Balon at all. As a matter of fact, I would say its a coin toss as to who would win.

2. We just don't know enough to call it either way. I stand by my previous statement. I don't know who would come out on top. I'm sure Doran sent more than enough troops to handle the mission sufficiently.

Remember: the mission is to hunt down Darkstar and beard him in his den, kill him necessarily. I doubt the party will stick to the plan, but all they have to do his keep him wrapped up in High Hermitage. This makes me think Doran still has plans for him.

[Veltigar]

1. I said he measured them, as in he accurately measured their fighting abilities. I don't think he would easily defeat Ser Balon at all. As a matter of fact, I would say its a coin toss as to who would win.

I agree

2. We just don't know enough to call it either way. I stand by my previous statement. I don't know who would come out on top. I'm sure Doran sent more than enough troops to handle the mission sufficiently.

Remember: the mission is to hunt down Darkstar and beard him in his den, kill him necessarily. I doubt the party will stick to the plan, but all they have to do his keep him wrapped up in High Hermitage. This makes me think Doran still has plans for him.

Would Darkstar be dumb enough to stay in his keep though (HH doesn’t sound like a strong castle to me, more like a watchtower to me. Like Eustace Osgrey’s tower in the Sworn Sword)? He knows he won’t get any reinforcements beyond his own men and in his Tower he’d be pinned down. I think he’ll chose mobility over the safety of his keep. He also knows there coming after him (and come to think of it he had loads of time to prepare himself since Doran waited until Balon finally arrived to send a hunting party). He has had enough time to assemble his men (possibly hiring some local mercs as well) and to carefully plan an ambush which would maximize his chances of victory (He even has enough time to steal Dawn in Starfall if you follow that theory like me).

Personally, I think the hunting party will walk into his ambush. Darkstar and his men are going to take out a lot of guards and probably one (perhaps two) members of the leading trio, but in the end it won’t be enough. I think Darkstar will lose the battle and flee again, but not towards HH. I think Darkstar is going for Sunspear or the Water Gardens to try and assassinate Doran. I think he’ll succeed and then be killed by the remaining member of the Darkstar hunt, who came in just moments after Dorans death.

[HodorForKing]

I agree

Would Darkstar be dumb enough to stay in his keep though (HH doesn’t sound like a strong castle to me, more like a watchtower to me. Like Eustace Osgrey’s tower in the Sworn Sword)? He knows he won’t get any reinforcements beyond his own men and in his Tower he’d be pinned down. I think he’ll chose mobility over the safety of his keep. He also knows there coming after him (and come to think of it he had loads of time to prepare himself since Doran waited until Balon finally arrived to send a hunting party). He has had enough time to assemble his men (possibly hiring some local mercs as well) and to carefully plan an ambush which would maximize his chances of victory (He even has enough time to steal Dawn in Starfall if you follow that theory like me).

Personally, I think the hunting party will walk into his ambush. Darkstar and his men are going to take out a lot of guards and probably one (perhaps two) members of the leading trio, but in the end it won’t be enough. I think Darkstar will lose the battle and flee again, but not towards HH. I think Darkstar is going for Sunspear or the Water Gardens to try and assassinate Doran. I think he’ll succeed and then be killed by the remaining member of the Darkstar hunt, who came in just moments after Dorans death.

I agree

Would Darkstar be dumb enough to stay in his keep though (HH doesn’t sound like a strong castle to me, more like a watchtower to me. Like Eustace Osgrey’s tower in the Sworn Sword)? He knows he won’t get any reinforcements beyond his own men and in his Tower he’d be pinned down. I think he’ll chose mobility over the safety of his keep. He also knows there coming after him (and come to think of it he had loads of time to prepare himself since Doran waited until Balon finally arrived to send a hunting party). He has had enough time to assemble his men (possibly hiring some local mercs as well) and to carefully plan an ambush which would maximize his chances of victory (He even has enough time to steal Dawn in Starfall if you follow that theory like me).

Personally, I think the hunting party will walk into his ambush. Darkstar and his men are going to take out a lot of guards and probably one (perhaps two) members of the leading trio, but in the end it won’t be enough. I think Darkstar will lose the battle and flee again, but not towards HH. I think Darkstar is going for Sunspear or the Water Gardens to try and assassinate Doran. I think he’ll succeed and then be killed by the remaining member of the Darkstar hunt, who came in just moments after Dorans death.

Or maybe he'll get back to sunspear and kill Myrcella, sooner or later Maggy predictions must become true and theres just two books to go.

[aryagonnakill]

Or maybe he'll get back to sunspear and kill Myrcella, sooner or later Maggy predictions must become true and theres just two books to go.

Myrcella has left Sunspear for Kings Landing.

[Veltigar]

Or maybe he'll get back to sunspear and kill Myrcella, sooner or later Maggy predictions must become true and theres just two books to go.

Myrcella has left Sunspear for Kings Landing.

+ Tommen has to die before Myrcella. Otherwise Myrcella can't be crowned.

[HodorForKing]

I completely forgot that...

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

+ Tommen has to die before Myrcella. Otherwise Myrcella can't be crowned.

The gold shall be their crowns part is being misread IMO. Gold shall be their crowns and gold shall be their deaths, refers to their hair color and not them being crowned for the iron throne.

It is their hair color that alerted Stannis and Jon Arryn to the possibility of incest and started this whole affair.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

The gold shall be their crowns part is being misread IMO. Gold shall be their crowns and gold shall be their deaths, refers to their hair color and not them being crowned for the iron throne.

It is their hair color that alerted Stannis and Jon Arryn to the possibility of incest and started this whole affair.

Not necessarily. It is quite possible for all three children to rule. Joffrey had, he died. Tommen is currently ruling. All we need is for him to die, and Myrcella can rule. Since she is on her way back to King's Landing, it's entirely possible.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Not necessarily. It is quite possible for all three children to rule. Joffrey had, he died. Tommen is currently ruling. All we need is for him to die, and Myrcella can rule. Since she is on her way back to King's Landing, it's entirely possible.

I don't see Myrcella ever being crowned.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I don't see Myrcella ever being crowned.

The most likely scenario is Tommen gets offed in King's Landing after Myrcella arrives but before Aegon arrives (probably during the trial by a sandsnake) and Cersei flees to Casterly Rock with Myrcella, and still enforces her claim to the Iron Throne.

[Veltigar]

The most likely scenario is Tommen gets offed in King's Landing after Myrcella arrives but before Aegon arrives (probably during the trial by a sandsnake) and Cersei flees to Casterly Rock with Myrcella, and still enforces her claim to the Iron Throne.

:agree:

[Tetrarch42]

Please yes, Hotah's about as interesting was a boiled carrot.

[Non-canon Name]

:crying: (shoves aside elaborate bowl of meticulously seasoned, boiled carrots)

[tbc]

The most likely scenario is Tommen gets offed in King's Landing after Myrcella arrives but before Aegon arrives (probably during the trial by a sandsnake) and Cersei flees to Casterly Rock with Myrcella, and still enforces her claim to the Iron Throne.

She'd have a job getting there. She hasn't got a navy sufficient to safely convey her to Lannisport, and to travel overland (assuming that Aegon controls the Crownlands) she'll have to go through the Riverlands, where Stoneheart and Nymeria's wolfpack are prowling.

That's even if she gets out of KL, which seems unlikely, given that Varys still controls the tunnels, has his little birds, and is one of the architects of Aegon's invasion.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

She'd have a job getting there. She hasn't got a navy sufficient to safely convey her to Lannisport, and to travel overland (assuming that Aegon controls the Crownlands) she'll have to go through the Riverlands, where Stoneheart and Nymeria's wolfpack are prowling.

That's even if she gets out of KL, which seems unlikely, given that Varys still controls the tunnels, has his little birds, and is one of the architects of Aegon's invasion.

Varys can't do anything beyond subtle or misleading events. He does not have the power to stop Cersei and Myrcella from leaving, but he can inform them. This is a book, if GRRM wants them to make it to Casterly Rock, they will. Jaime's group made it, the Hound and Arya went on the King's road pretty easily.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

She'd have a job getting there. She hasn't got a navy sufficient to safely convey her to Lannisport, and to travel overland (assuming that Aegon controls the Crownlands) she'll have to go through the Riverlands, where Stoneheart and Nymeria's wolfpack are prowling.

That's even if she gets out of KL, which seems unlikely, given that Varys still controls the tunnels, has his little birds, and is one of the architects of Aegon's invasion.

All that is left to Cersei is about 200 or so Lannister guardsmen, Qyburn, and Ser Robert Strong. Assuming she survives the upcoming trial, that may be enough to cut herself out of KL. Beyond that, it may be enough to get her through the Riverlands. The remnants of Daven's host and Jaime's host should still be about, and the Freys could likely be counted on. The only real threat would be from the TBwB.

[tbc]

All that is left to Cersei is about 200 or so Lannister guardsmen, Qyburn, and Ser Robert Strong. Assuming she survives the upcoming trial, that may be enough to cut herself out of KL. Beyond that, it may be enough to get her through the Riverlands. The remnants of Daven's host and Jaime's host should still be about, and the Freys could likely be counted on. The only real threat would be from the TBwB.

It's possible, but my reading of the Riverlands at present is that something major will erupt in TWoW. Between Nymeria and the wolf pack (which have been mentioned far too often to not impinge on the story), TBwB who are clearly planning something for Riverrun, the Blackfish, and the potential for either the Stark forces at Greywater Watch, or the armies of the Vale, to intervene, I doubt the Riverlands will be safe to travel through. Particularly not if, as I think, the Tyrells will align themselves behind Aegon.

She can't, if Aegon turns up, take the Gold Road, as it passes through the Crownlands.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

It's possible, but my reading of the Riverlands at present is that something major will erupt in TWoW. Between Nymeria and the wolf pack (which have been mentioned far too often to not impinge on the story), TBwB who are clearly planning something for Riverrun, the Blackfish, and the potential for either the Stark forces at Greywater Watch, or the armies of the Vale, to intervene, I doubt the Riverlands will be safe to travel through. Particularly not if, as I think, the Tyrells will align themselves behind Aegon.

She can't, if Aegon turns up, take the Gold Road, as it passes through the Crownlands.

Its all about timing. There are two critical events that we are looking at:

1. Cersei and Margaery's trials.

2. Connington versus the Tyrell invasion force.

If Ser Robert Strong prevails on Cersei's behalf, will she immediately grab Tommen and make a break for the Rock? Will she await Myrcella or will Myrcella have arrived by then?

A victory over the Tyrell invasion force is the final step needed for all potential allies of Aegon to come together. The question of will Cersei already be gone by the time this all happens?