Would Stannis do it?

[Artos Stark]

Although you do have to prepare for the possibility of Stannis' sellswords turning up.

I honestly don't ever see the sellswords getting there and certainly not before shit hit the fan. When we last saw Massey he was about to leave for the wall, with the state of winter, it could be months before he reaches it (if he doesn't die on the way like so many other southerners). Once he reaches the wall he has to travel to East Watch which will be also extremely dangerous and long journey, so we're talking months before he even sees the sea (if he makes it that far with winter, starvation, wildling attacks and "things in the water" who knows). Then he has a long and dangerous journey across the sea which is a coin flip at best. realistically we are looking at half a year before he reaches Bravos. At this point (unless of course by some miracle they have 20,000 sellswords just sitting around doing nothing while there is work/money in Slavers Bay and the disputed lands) he must travel Essos and track down 20,000 sellswords to take his cause (I'm not even going to guess how long that would take, surely months). After he finds all the sellswords he must then make the return journey which again would take a very long time.

Now say, they do make it that far and land back in the North, this is where is becomes tricky for them. Do we think that these selllswords from Essos would have any idea of how to survive a Northern winter? We saw how poorly the Southerners did. They would be lucky if a fraction of them made it to Castle Black and if things had turned sour at WF, there would be no Northern help for them, only trouble along the way.

It just isn't realistic that these sellswords land and help fight the northerners in the north.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

He would most likely lose, but it would be bloody and it would leave the northmen even weaker then they are and in no position to declare independence. They are better off with a peaceful dialogue or killing him quietly.

I agree. Lets just hope that Jon has his head screwed on properly.

[E-Ro]

It just isn't realistic that these sellswords land and help fight the northerners in the north.

Just like its not realistic that winterfell, one of the strongest fortresses in the realm would fall to 17 men. GRRM would never do that, right?

[E-Ro]

I agree. Lets just hope that Jon has his head screwed on properly.

That's my point, its like Stannis and the northmen are russia and the U.S during the cold war, no one would want to escalate things for fear of retaliation from the others. The northmen(the U.S.) would most likely win, but Not before Stannis(the soviet union) caused a ton of damage.

Please note, the two countries are just an example im not saying the northmen are like Americans or Stannis is a communist, just an example that came to mind.

[Dicer]

Once he reaches the wall he has to travel to East Watch which will be also extremely dangerous and long journey, so we're talking months before he even sees the sea (if he makes it that far with winter, starvation, wildling attacks and "things in the water" who knows). Then he has a long and dangerous journey across the sea which is a coin flip at best. realistically we are looking at half a year before he reaches Bravos.

I am not very clear on this, but are there still ships left at East Watch? I thought Cotter Pyke took all of them to Hardhome and then lost a few of the ships on the way there. Plus the situation at Hardhome does not seem too good what with all the dead things. East Watch itself could be in danger.

[Artos Stark]

Yes, did you see the quote i posted from winds? the norhtmen that tried to cross Stannis were fucked, all he had to do was bring in their leaders and remove them, nothing could be simpler.

If he is sitting in winterfell comfortably he has little to worry about, especially with the northman starving as well, all he has to do is outlast them. We have seen his iron will is greater then that of anyone in westeros, he would outlast them in a waiting game, thats not to mention that if the others show up while this siege is ongoing they are screwed.

All they have to do is put on some cloths, sellswords are professional men at arms, the threat of them arriving would be enough to force the northmen to leave WF to defend their own keeps and lands. Simmilar to how mandelry could not assist against the ironborn thanks to bolton fighting him over the hornwood lands.

Yes I've read that chapter, but his men were fighting a family or traitors to the Starks and not an entire army. Once word got out that he was eliminating leaders, the army would rise up and crush him or abandon him all together leaving him and his men to their doom.

He wouldn't be sitting in WF comfortably. He would be freezing and starving. IIRC the Northmen in WF were running out of food, only the highborn guys were getting their fair share. Also Northmen know how to survive his winter, they've done it for thousands of years. I don't see any chance in hell that he outlasts the Northmen. They have the option of returning to their castles and switching the armies holding Stannis to siege while his tiny army dies or starvation and exposure. Iron will or not, which Stannis certainly does have, there is no chance that he could survive long enough to defeat them this way. There would be no Ned Stark to come end the siege, there would be no Davos to bring him fish.

Lol don't make me laugh at that last part. All they have to do is put on some clothes? Come on, we've seen how poorly those from outside of the North do in Winter, even you must admit that many many of them would die. Would it distract some of the northern force? Sure. but definitely not enough to lift the siege. All the Northmen would have to do is let them attempt a march on their own, they would die. Last Hearth would fortify it's castle and prepare for a siege.

I don't see any chance in hell of a army of Essos invading the north during winter and having success. From what we've seen in the books, it simply isn't realistic and I doubt GRRM would try to convince us that it is.

[Artos Stark]

Just like its not realistic that winterfell, one of the strongest fortresses in the realm would fall to 17 men. GRRM would never do that, right?

Apples and Oranges.

The Greyjoys snuck in during the dead of night with nothing but green soldiers watching the walls. They were able to catch the force off guard and took the castle.

That is entirely different from believing that an army from a hot climate is going to invade what is bascially Russia with no food and no idea who to get food, sustain a march across mountains and 20 foot snow drifts on foot. March all the way to WF and fight a battle. It isn't realistic.

What Theon did was clevar and realistic. Theon had tons of knowledge of WF and how to get in and out. These sellswords on the other hand have no knowledge of how to survive in the north.

[E-Ro]

Yes I've read that chapter, but his men were fighting a family or traitors to the Starks and not an entire army. Once word got out that he was eliminating leaders, the army would rise up and crush him or abandon him all together leaving him and his men to their doom.

He wouldn't be sitting in WF comfortably. He would be freezing and starving. IIRC the Northmen in WF were running out of food, only the highborn guys were getting their fair share. Also Northmen know how to survive his winter, they've done it for thousands of years. I don't see any chance in hell that he outlasts the Northmen. They have the option of returning to their castles and switching the armies holding Stannis to siege while his tiny army dies or starvation and exposure. Iron will or not, which Stannis certainly does have, there is no chance that he could survive long enough to defeat them this way. There would be no Ned Stark to come end the siege, there would be no Davos to bring him fish.

Lol don't make me laugh at that last part. All they have to do is put on some clothes? Come on, we've seen how poorly those from outside of the North do in Winter, even you must admit that many many of them would die. Would it distract some of the northern force? Sure. but definitely not enough to lift the siege. All the Northmen would have to do is let them attempt a march on their own, they would die. Last Hearth would fortify it's castle and prepare for a siege.

I don't see any chance in hell of a army of Essos invading the north during winter and having success. From what we've seen in the books, it simply isn't realistic and I doubt GRRM would try to convince us that it is.

You seem to have forgotten the fact that the northmen have lost about 17k men in this war. If even half of the sellswords make it to the north its game over. And if the northmen try to rotate armies like that they would leave themselves vulnerable to sorties from the defenders. It would be the height of stupidity for the northmen to attack Stannis as I said, i know the northmen are "zomg pwnzor defeat all the southern jackanaps in single combat with teh skills of swordplay from living in the cold" but they would die in droves. If the goal is independence in the long run and not just for the winter they had best hope to make a deal with Stannis, he would keep to his word. They fight him and even if the manage to defeat the others, after the winter the south will come for them in summer and spring. And if that happens they wont make the same mistake of leaving any starks alive.

[Artos Stark]

I am not very clear on this, but are there still ships left at East Watch? I thought Cotter Pyke took all of them to Hardhome and then lost a few of the ships on the way there. Plus the situation at Hardhome does not seem too good what with all the dead things. East Watch itself could be in danger.

I do think Stannis probably has a couple of ships there.

As for things not being good there with "things in the water" you are absolutely right. Which makes it even harder for me to imagine Massey making it to Essos.

Also if things turned south at WF, what is to stop Manderly's fleet from stopping. The ships from even arriving. No chance in hell 20,000 sellswords arrive in the North, the Iron Fleet even lost ships on their trip across the narrow sea.

[E-Ro]

Apples and Oranges.

The Greyjoys snuck in during the dead of night with nothing but green soldiers watching the walls. They were able to catch the force off guard and took the castle.

That is entirely different from believing that an army from a hot climate is going to invade what is bascially Russia with no food and no idea who to get food, sustain a march across mountains and 20 foot snow drifts on foot. March all the way to WF and fight a battle. It isn't realistic.

What Theon did was clevar and realistic. Theon had tons of knowledge of WF and how to get in and out. These sellswords on the other hand have no knowledge of how to survive in the north.

If you think its realistic that 17 men could take and hold winterfell(witch was full of people) then there really is not point to this, he would have entered the castle with his grappling hooks and the people in there would have butchered him and his men. there's a reason it is left ambiguous, if you start to pick that little episode apart it becomes clear how silly it is. Are there so few people living there? that 17 men can take it and hold it?

[hollowcrown]

1. Jon would be a bastard

2. Jon would have no claim to the Thrones

3. Jon probably wouldn't accept the King in the North title, he'd be happy with Lord of Winterfell, serving King Stannis, and his bannermen would go along with it because look what happened when they rebelled eh?

[Artos Stark]

You seem to have forgotten the fact that the northmen have lost about 17k men in this war. If even half of the sellswords make it to the north its game over. And if the northmen try to rotate armies like that they would leave themselves vulnerable to sorties from the defenders. It would be the height of stupidity for the northmen to attack Stannis as I said, i know the northmen are "zomg pwnzor defeat all the southern jackanaps in single combat with teh skills of swordplay from living in the cold" but they would die in droves. If the goal is independence in the long run and not just for the winter they had best hope to make a deal with Stannis, he would keep to his word. They fight him and even if the manage to defeat the others, after the winter the south will come for them in summer and spring. And if that happens they wont make the same mistake of leaving any starks alive.

I haven't forgotten anything. But I do know that Stannis gathered roughly 4 - 5 k Northmen with ease, there are 4 k more at WF and Manderly is said to have a massive force. There are still northern trooops.

All this is assuming that the Northmen let Stannis have WF in the first place, he would never be allowed to claim WF and close the gates locking the army outside. The Northmen are fighting hard to get it back from te Boltons, why would they give it right to Stannis? It doesn't make sense that would even have the chance to shut himself up in the castle and wait.

If even half of the sellswords make it to the North, less than half of them would survive the march. It is unrealistic to assume that they would fare any better than Stannis' men did. Stannis has no power over the northmen at any point, he is outgunned vastly and does not know his area. The northmen could kick his ass out of the north any any point in time, sure he might have the better swords for 1 on 1 combat but so did the Lannisters.

You are under the assumption that Stannis will keep them alive by winning the Iron Throne? That is understandable because you are a Stannis fan but I just don't see that happening. Even with the help of the North I don't see how he wins the throne, he simply doesn't have enough men. I understand that you think these sellswords will arrive and save the day but I'm not so sure. Say the Northmen supported Stannis and these sell swords land in Westeros to the south, they would still have to fight the throne, Lannisters, Tyrells, Aegon and Dany whenever she decided to arrive. 20k just wouldn't be enough.

We shall see what will happen though in the coming books as I am 100% positive that Jon will be named King in the North very soon.

[Artos Stark]

If you think its realistic that 17 men could take and hold winterfell(witch was full of people) then there really is not point to this, he would have entered the castle with his grappling hooks and the people in there would have butchered him and his men. there's a reason it is left ambiguous, if you start to pick that little episode apart it becomes clear how silly it is. Are there so few people living there? that 17 men can take it and hold it?

WF only had about 50 men defending it and none of those men were fighters, Theon had planned this out, he had the Cleftjaw attack the Tallharts drawing Rodrik and WF's garrison out. They were the greenest of the green and the oldest of the old. The Ironmen on the other hand were killers and soldiers. It wouldn't be any competition once they got into the castle, they would slaughter all of these so called troops.

Give me 17 soliders over 50 farmers any day in a battle.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Battle_of_Winterfell

This was all Rodrik's stupidity for leaving WF unprotected.

[E-Ro]

I haven't forgotten anything. But I do know that Stannis gathered roughly 4 - 5 k Northmen with ease, there are 4 k more at WF and Manderly is said to have a massive force. There are still northern trooops.

All this is assuming that the Northmen let Stannis have WF in the first place, he would never be allowed to claim WF and close the gates locking the army outside. The Northmen are fighting hard to get it back from te Boltons, why would they give it right to Stannis? It doesn't make sense that would even have the chance to shut himself up in the castle and wait.

If even half of the sellswords make it to the North, less than half of them would survive the march. It is unrealistic to assume that they would fare any better than Stannis' men did. Stannis has no power over the northmen at any point, he is outgunned vastly and does not know his area. The northmen could kick his ass out of the north any any point in time, sure he might have the better swords for 1 on 1 combat but so did the Lannisters.

You are under the assumption that Stannis will keep them alive by winning the Iron Throne? That is understandable because you are a Stannis fan but I just don't see that happening. Even with the help of the North I don't see how he wins the throne, he simply doesn't have enough men. I understand that you think these sellswords will arrive and save the day but I'm not so sure. Say the Northmen supported Stannis and these sell swords land in Westeros to the south, they would still have to fight the throne, Lannisters, Tyrells, Aegon and Dany whenever she decided to arrive. 20k just wouldn't be enough.

We shall see what will happen though in the coming books as I am 100% positive that Jon will be named King in the North very soon.

Im not saying the northmen would lose. they would most likely win, but it would be nasty. As I said they cant keep on fighting everyone without allies. Winter wont last forever and the others are coming, if they have any hope at survival much less independence they will need to work with Stannis. It is very possible that a ton of northmen could be wiped out by the others, they will be the first to get hit. Fighting Stannis is not in their best interests. Even should they succeed after all this spring will come and then what?

WF only had about 50 men defending it and none of those men were fighters, Theon had planned this out, he had the Cleftjaw attack the Tallharts drawing Rodrik and WF's garrison out. They were the greenest of the green and the oldest of the old. The Ironmen on the other hand were killers and soldiers. It wouldn't be any competition once they got into the castle, they would slaughter all of these so called troops.

Give me 17 soliders over 50 farmers any day in a battle.

50 men is far to many for 17, even if those seventeen are soldiers, not one of them was killed somehow, dont you find that odd? That 17 men took WF bloodlessly? And even then, the holding of it, how on earth is 17 men enough to patrol WF and prevent escapes? I must be seriously overestimating the size of the castle, i guess the starks were rather poor but it seems odd to me that this cheesy ploy worked.

[Artos Stark]

Im not saying the northmen would lose. they would most likely win, but it would be nasty. As I said they cant keep on fighting everyone without allies. Winter wont last forever and the others are coming, if they have any hope at survival much less independence they will need to work with Stannis. It is very possible that a ton of northmen could be wiped out by the others, they will be the first to get hit. Fighting Stannis is not in their best interests. Even should they succeed after all this spring will come and then what?

50 men is far to many for 17, even if those seventeen are soldiers, not one of them was killed somehow, dont you find that odd? That 17 men took WF bloodlessly? And even then, the holding of it, how on earth is 17 men enough to patrol WF and prevent escapes? I must be seriously overestimating the size of the castle, i guess the starks were rather poor but it seems odd to me that this cheesy ploy worked.

It would be in the North's best interest to side with the south no matter who is in charge with the Others coming. They will need the help from the entire realm to defeat them. I think in the end, all of the sides end up coming together in order to fight the others off. I think Dany's dragos are going to have a huge role in this as fire kills wights. Maybe they all come back together in the end and the seven kingdoms is reformed but I certainly think that Jon will be named King in the North very soon.

Maybe they would have lost a man or two, but there is no chance in hell that 50 random dudes are going head to head with trained soliders. Holding it proved much harder, as the people of WF were constantly testing the Ironborn and killing them, Theon put this to rest with public exectution but this was not going to last long. It was not a lasting plan but it would have worked for a small time.

As for 17 vs 50. 17 marines go into a middle eastern town, the town folks take up arms against them. 25 16 year old boys and 25 60 year old men, none of which have any kinds of training in arms. The marines tear them to peices with very few losses. They would be far too well trained for the force to handle.

[mcb]

Agreed, so why should Westeros back either?

Imagine someone who has no reasons to love neither the Baratheons nor the Lannisters, astonishing as it may sound. That may be reason enough to back the Targ pretenders. It is for Dorne.

As for Dany, I stand by my previous points and believe in the right of conquest. Therefore, I think if she wants the throne, she will have to take it.

Doesn't quite work that way. Even if you lost a war and declare fealty to the victor, your claim doesn't disappear overnight, or even over a longer period of time. If after Aegon I's death Lord Lannister, Lord Arryn or any other of the lords that knelt before the dragons decided to crown himself, nobody would say "nah, he has no claim". He would have claim, it would be treated seriously, and lesser lords would answer his call. Hell, it's been three hundred years since Torrhen Stark knelt, and suddenly: "King in the North!". The Starks lost their crown by the right of conquest, mind you, and yet they could put it on again, with northmen cheering. The Blackfyre claim didn't die on the Redgrass Field, it continued to trouble the Targs until Ser Barristan slew the last known grandson of Deamon's.

Now "the Targs are out, the Baratheons are in" situation would be more solid, if Robert was flawlessly succeeded by his trueborn son, his son by his grandson, and so on. But they gave the realm the War of the Five Kings instead.

As for the "she will have to take it" part, agreed. Stannis, another pretender with blood claim, faces precisely the same problem.

[E-Ro]

It would be in the North's best interest to side with the south no matter who is in charge with the Others coming. They will need the help from the entire realm to defeat them. I think in the end, all of the sides end up coming together in order to fight the others off. I think Dany's dragos are going to have a huge role in this as fire kills wights. Maybe they all come back together in the end and the seven kingdoms is reformed but I certainly think that Jon will be named King in the North very soon.

Exactly my point. The infighting in the next few books is going to be minimal im sure, no one wants to just keep fighting endlessly, whats the point of that?

Maybe they would have lost a man or two, but there is no chance in hell that 50 random dudes are going head to head with trained soliders. Holding it proved much harder, as the people of WF were constantly testing the Ironborn and killing them, Theon put this to rest with public exectution but this was not going to last long. It was not a lasting plan but it would have worked for a small time.

As for 17 vs 50. 17 marines go into a middle eastern town, the town folks take up arms against them. 25 16 year old boys and 25 60 year old men, none of which have any kinds of training in arms. The marines tear them to peices with very few losses. They would be far too well trained for the force to handle.

Marines with guns is a whole different ballgame to men with swords. There is only so much you can do with a sword, its extremely difficult to kill someone in hand to hand. and the energy exerted is far greater then shooting someone, hence getting worn down by people and overwhelmed.

[The Wolves]

Imagine someone who has no reasons to love neither the Baratheons nor the Lannisters, astonishing as it may sound. That may be reason enough to back the Targ pretenders. It is for Dorne.

Doesn't quite work that way. Even if you lost a war and declare fealty to the victor, your claim doesn't disappear overnight, or even over a longer period of time. If after Aegon I's death Lord Lannister, Lord Arryn or any other of the lords that knelt before the dragons decided to crown himself, nobody would say "nah, he has no claim". He would have claim, it would be treated seriously, and lesser lords would answer his call. Hell, it's been three hundred years since Torrhen Stark knelt, and suddenly: "King in the North!". The Starks lost their crown by the right of conquest, mind you, and yet they could put it on again, with northmen cheering. The Blackfyre claim didn't die on the Redgrass Field, it continued to trouble the Targs until Ser Barristan slew the last known grandson of Deamon's.

Now "the Targs are out, the Baratheons are in" situation would be more solid, if Robert was flawlessly succeeded by his trueborn son, his son by his grandson, and so on. But they gave the realm the War of the Five Kings instead.

As for the "she will have to take it" part, agreed. Stannis, another pretender with blood claim, faces precisely the same problem.

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Robert's right to the Throne backed by him having Targaryen ancestors?

[Artos Stark]

Exactly my point. The infighting in the next few books is going to be minimal im sure, no one wants to just keep fighting endlessly, whats the point of that?

Marines with guns is a whole different ballgame to men with swords. There is only so much you can do with a sword, its extremely difficult to kill someone in hand to hand. and the energy exerted is far greater then shooting someone, hence getting worn down by people and overwhelmed.

It is the same no matter who the soliders are.

Throw any random 50 guys into mideval times, give them swords and tell them that they need to kill 17 seasoned fighters and knights. Do you think they would stand any chance? Training matters quite a bit. This is why men like Jaime Lannister cut down so many people in battle before being captured, his training and skills made him worth 20 of his enemies.

[E-Ro]

It is the same no matter who the soliders are.

Throw any random 50 guys into mideval times, give them swords and tell them that they need to kill 17 seasoned fighters and knights. Do you think they would stand any chance? Training matters quite a bit. This is why men like Jaime Lannister cut down so many people in battle before being captured, his training and skills made him worth 20 of his enemies.

Dude that's pure fantasy. Its not braveheart or lotr, the image of main characters slaying hordes of nameless goons is hollywood and rpgs. Of course training counts, and a trained man will kill more men then an untrained man, but its more about not breaking and running. Thats when most people die, in the route not in the actual combat. Training a man does not make him a superhero, it gives him an advantage to be sure, but as I said a sword is not a gun. Heres an example for you, go outside and run as fast as you can for 5 minuets, now imagine doing that for an hour while people are trying to kill you. Yeah, its not easy even with training.