I suspect Manderly has at least 4000 heavy horse left in his hands

[Ser Greg of House House]

You're totally right. Also he is building ships.

The whole Manderly thing makes me think that we'll have a Stark lord/king back in the game sooner than we would expect. I just hope it's not really Rickon or the whole thing will get WAY too complicated to end in two more books. Unfortunately I can't see a reason for Rickon to even exist if he'll not play some role... So let's just wait.

[Lord of Castamere]

Dream on. If Manderly would have akin to 4000 heavy horse and with the normal ratio of North akin to 1:4 Manderly would have total of 16 000 men army + at least 4000 men for his 40 ships. So in total akin to 20k men. Sure I guess Manderly has strength akin to half of the entire North.....

[sertravisredbeard]

Yeah Manderly was told from the very beginning to hold most of his guys back and prepare for the defense of the eastern coast of the North. It wasn't his fault the sea attack came from the Greyjoys on the west coast. Just like all the other northern lords and their forces, the army Manderly sent south was one quickly raised without much notice, so it's not hard to believe that he would be able to raise even more men from his lands than anybody else would know about.

He lists the areas surrounding him that will support him any way he goes, so the 4000 number isn't that implausible. I'm also fascinated by how him and his sons, despite being 3 of the fattest guys in Westeros, seem be able to move around enough to dance and fight. I just read COK again and Bran talks about how Wyman was a graceful dancer, and Wylis and Wendel are both described as being quite capable fighters. For some reason this amuses me.

[Free Northman]

How much detail shall I go into? Let's keep it short, for what is obviously a new audience (rubs hands together in glee):

In short, Manderly has more forces left than any other Northern lord. 4000 heavy horse would be excessive, but a figure of 800-1000 is certainly possible. Given the usual 20% ratio for heavy horse, that would mean about 4000 infantry to go along with that. I suspect he has a total land force left of around 5k men.

The Karstarks have raised a total force of around 3000 men to date. They live in sparsely populated heavy forestlands almost 1000 miles north of White Harbor, with no cities or large towns in the region.

Manderly rules significantly more fertile lands, in a warmer climate, with a city of tens of thousands of people at its center, controls the White Knife trade artery into the North and the main trade port of the North.

Davos says the wind in White Harbor is like a warm bath compared to the wind at the Wall.

The point is, Manderly must rule a significantly larger population than the Karstarks - 5 times as large would not be unrealistic. In fact, I would suggest that maybe 20-25% of the entire North's population may live on the Southeast coast and in the White Knife river basin.

To conclude, Manderly can probably raise 4 times Lord Karstark's total numbers. Around 10k men, I believe, of which he has lost maybe 2500 to date.

He can at the very least raise another 5000 land troops, of which say 1000 are heavy horse.

[Charerg]

I agree with Free Northman, the Manderlys are the most powerful house in the North (in terms of wealth and number of soldiers), but even they can't probably raise more than 10k men (pre-war).

Even if the White Knife and the area east of it contain a large portion of the North's population (probably even 30%), it would be absurd that he could raise 4000 heavy cavalry when the ENTIRE cavalry arm of Robb's army numbered something like that. And the Manderlys aren't quite powerful enough to raise as many soldiers as the rest of the North.

[Free Northman]

Of the North's total strength Manderly probably has between a fifth and a quarter.

[Fetch me a block]

Of the North's total strength Manderly probably has between a fifth and a quarter.

Would you say they have more men than the Starks pre-war? I mean the Starks alone ofc

[Free Northman]

Well the Redwynnes and the Hightowers almost certainly have more men than the Tyrells. I put the Starks in their own right at the Bolton level of around 5k men.

[The Frosted King]

Well the Redwynnes and the Hightowers almost certainly have more men than the Tyrells. I put the Starks in their own right at the Bolton level of around 5k men.

Highly doubt it.

The Starks have the town outside their walls to draw from.

I'd imagine Manderly is the only family outstripping the Starks militarily.

If the Boltons can raise 4000, i'd expect the Starks to be capable of at least 6000 from their personal lands.

And 4000 was the calvary arm of the hurried host that was gathered under extremely need to go now circumstances.

I don't feel they had another 40k the way Bright Blue does, but another 15 to 20k max, surely, though the quality would be lesser.

And i was kinda joking about the 4000k horsemen. I would believe 1-2k though.

[Sworn Shield]

Manderly also took in Hornwood refugees as well to bolster his ranks.

[King Aerys the Just]

Highly doubt it.

The Starks have the town outside their walls to draw from.

I'd imagine Manderly is the only family outstripping the Starks militarily.

If the Boltons can raise 4000, i'd expect the Starks to be capable of at least 6000 from their personal lands.

And 4000 was the calvary arm of the hurried host that was gathered under extremely need to go now circumstances.

I don't feel they had another 40k the way Bright Blue does, but another 15 to 20k max, surely, though the quality would be lesser.

And i was kinda joking about the 4000k horsemen. I would believe 1-2k though.

Which probably means that the proportion of cavalry was larger than it would normally be, rather than the other way around. Men-at-arms are professional soldiers who are required to keep all the equipment they need for fighting maintained as their feudal obligation, so they should be proportionally speaking the easiest to muster quickly for a campaign provided that enough political will and unity exists to make them follow. Since the North had been ruled by Ned for many years, who seems to have been a competent lord, there shouldn't have been any lack of this when Robb called his banners.

[Free Northman]

Considering the size and location of the various northern lords' lands, I'd be very interested to see how those with lower estimates of the North's strength allocate strength between the Northern Houses, given that we have the Karstarks' 3000 men to date as a reference point.

[E-Ro]

Free northman on the troop scene as usual. I agree with his numbers.

[Manderlay]

The North can still raise a considerable force of 15k (with 3000 horse) or as I suspect even more, most of the people of North live spread out over the lands in forests, mountains, plains etc. The towns in summer in most cases are 1/4 occupied, when winter comes they all return to the towns, so when Robb called his banners all the lords can come but not all the people, as soon as all the lords arrived (some met him on his march south), he marched south so not all of the men of the North would have had time to join him, the North is huge as big as the rest of Westeros and its not as sparsely populated as many think, only sparsely populated for its size.

Manderly has the most manpower in the North, so I think he will have anywhere between 1000-1500 heavy horse (with around 200-300 Knights), he must be having around 40-60 warships as well and crew to man them, other forces (men at arms, archers, pikes) he would have from 4000-6000, but since Hornwood men have taken refuge in WH and also Glover we might see those numbers go up.

Manderly would have kept some force separate as well like the warships mentioned earlier and 2000 defenders for WH

[TheCasualObserver]

Where are people getting the 3000 men figure for the Karstarks? Is that pre or post war? Also, it's always struck me as odd that we never got a good idea of how many men are personally sworn to the Starks. As the Lords paramount in the North you would think that Starks have at least as many personal men as the Boltons or Karstarks so I'm saying 4000 at a minimum. Where exactly did all these men go? We need a more accurate breakdown of the Northern forces who went south to determine who's left to fight in the North. By ADWD Roose commands how many men? 4000 including the Freys?

[Free Northman]

The Karstarks brought 2300 men to Robb. In addition to them, Arnolf Karstark has raised a strong force - numbering many hundreds at least, in Dance. Altogether their strength seems to be around the 3000 mark.

[The Monkey]

If Manderly has such big forces, why did he just take 300 with him to Winterfell when Bolton called for him? If his plan is to attack the Boltons and Freys from behind, surely his odds would improve if he got more of his men inside the walls before the battle commences. It's pretty useless to have all that strength left in White Harbour when the fate of the North is determined in Winterfell.

[TigerKarl]

completely no way, unless you give a source or valid points to back up these absurd numbers.

[King Aerys the Just]

If Manderly has such big forces, why did he just take 300 with him to Winterfell when Bolton called for him? If his plan is to attack the Boltons and Freys from behind, surely his odds would improve if he got more of his men inside the walls before the battle commences. It's pretty useless to have all that strength left in White Harbour when the fate of the North is determined in Winterfell.

I think you are answering your own question somewhat. If he plans on betraying and destroying the Boltons from within he will want to come off as as harmless as possible until it is time to go. Bringing a huge force with him to the wedding would make Roose even more suspicious of him than he already is, and also give him a good reason for not letting Manderly's men camp inside the walls, such as by saying that the castle won't have room for them or similar.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

4,000 heavy horse is probably to many. 600-800 seems more likely. Reasons:

- heavy horse is probably 1 in 20 of any Lord's entire host and Manderley fields ~15k altogether, give or take a couple thousand. His ~50 war galleys need at least 7,000 men, his land forces should be of the same size

- Manderley has ~100 landed knights, maybe with a brother or son each as well, a dozen petty Lords who I put at 5-10 each and a city full of household knights. Let's the same force again. That would be ~700 knights.

So when Ned's life is in danger and Robb charges off North he can only spare 1,500 men, half the men that the far far North bannermen like the the Karstarks and Umbers can muster yet with the threat of the Boltons being in control and a chance to ward(manipulate) Rickon he can raise much more. hmmm seems Manderlay isnt so much loyal as an opportunistic Lord no different to the majority in Westeros.

All three, Ned Stark, Robb Stark and Bran Stark successively ordered him to shore up the defenses of White Harbour, built a fleet to defend the eastern shore (against the Royal Fleet no less) and be ready to repel any invasion attempt pretty much on his own. The men he sent south were his spares.

Howland Reed got similar orders and couldn't provide any spares for Robb's army.

So then why did he accept the extra 4,000 from the Freys? When Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, Torrens Square and Winterfell taken where was the White Harbour forces then. The Boltons, despite sending more men South send a larger host to save Winterfell.

In what chapter does Ned order him to prepare the defenses of White Harbour?

Because the Freys didn't need them back home. When Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte and Torrhens Square were taken, Ser Rodrik Cassel was right on the track towards repelling them, based on the central and southwestern Lords alone.

The Boltons send a host to raze Winterfell in a race against the clock and Ser Rodrik Cassel. It's about two to three weeks from Theon's attack on WInterfell toward Ser Rodrik Cassel dying. They hadn't time to get there.

Would you say they have more men than the Starks pre-war? I mean the Starks alone ofc

In a way. The Tallharts, Glovers and Cerwyns are sworn to the Starks, not as Lords of the same standing as the Manderleys, Boltons, Mormonts and whomever. But they aren't counted as Stark men, at least no more than the Manderleys themselves.

If Manderly has such big forces, why did he just take 300 with him to Winterfell when Bolton called for him? If his plan is to attack the Boltons and Freys from behind, surely his odds would improve if he got more of his men inside the walls before the battle commences. It's pretty useless to have all that strength left in White Harbour when the fate of the North is determined in Winterfell.

Because it's a honor guard to a wedding. Coming with an army is an open declaration of rebellion. No, the army is somewhere else, a hidden dagger ready to plunge.