Who killed Jon Arryn?

[Voramir Glover]

My understanding of the whole plot, in a video :)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MXZZd0YKsI

 

@ap2442: I have no idea how Stannis discovered the truth about Joffrey... but he wasn't the only one to know, Littlefinger and probably Varys and Pycelle knew about it too, no? I'm not certain. But everyone had a lot of spies, so eventually every secret in the court is bound to be discovered I guess. I have no idea how Jaime and Cersei managed to hide their relationship so long in the first place.

 

I think it  was also Littlefinger who wispered this in Stannis ear. Not personally, but somehow he brought Stannis to the right conclusion. And then he let Lysa kill Jon Arryn only to simulate a Lannister-murder. Perfect plan.

[DaveSumm]

Just re-reading A Game Of Thrones, and I'm just making sure I have this whole thing completely correct...

 

 

So do you think the "Jon Arryn's death plot" it could be summarized with this diagram I made?

 

http://imageshack.com/a/img716/654/nsx9.png

 

I agree with all of this, except for one point: however much of a Lannister man Pycelle was, I just can't imagine him seeing that the Hand had been poisoned and automatically assuming it was Cersei, and therefore covering it up and ensuring Arryn's death. That's an incredibly drastic measure for something you're not even sure was Cersei's work. I think at the very least, Cersei must have taken the opportunity to rid herself of Arryn and instructed Pycelle to make sure he died, even it it wasn't actually her that poisoned Arryn. Whether or not they knew he'd been poisoned or was just genuinely ill I'm not sure, would Pycelle recognise the symptoms of a poison Varys describes as "a rare and costly thing, clear and sweet as water, and it leaves no trace"? But then there is this passage which seem to indicate his involvement:

 

 

He stroked a powdered cheek. "Now, poison ... the tears of Lys, let us say. Khal Drogo need never know it was not a natural death."

   Grand Maester Pycelle's sleepy eyes flicked open. He squinted suspiciously at the eunuch.

 

 

Which leaves me wondering what exactly was Cersei planning? She probably knew that Arryn had found out about her and Jaime, and even though Lysa beat her to the punch, are we to believe she wasn't cooking up something of her own?

[DaveSumm]

NVM

[DaveSumm]

Looking back at Cersei and Jaime's conversation in Bran II, upon first read we're presumably supposed to assume that they're discussing murdering Jon Arryn. Then second read, once we know that it was Lysa, we realise they must simply be talking about their incestuous relationship ... but now upon third read, I'm wondering if we could revert back and think maybe they're discussing their own attempts at taking out Arryn?

 

 

   "His wife is Lady Arryn's sister. It's a wonder Lysa was not here to greet us with her accusations."

   Bran looked down. There was a narrow ledge beneath the window, only a few inches wide. He tried to lower himself toward it. Too far. He would never reach.

   "You fret too much. Lysa Arryn is a frightened cow."

   "That frightened cow shared Jon Arryn's bed."

   "If she knew anything, she would have gone to Robert before she fled Kings Landing."

   "When he had already agreed to foster that weakling son of hers at Casterley Rock? I think not. She knew the boy's life would be hostage to her silence. She may grow bolder now that he's safe atop the Eyrie."

   "Mothers." The man made the word sound like a curse. "I think birthing does something to your minds. You are all mad." He laughed. It was a bitter sound. "Let Lady Arryn grow as bold as she likes. Whatever she knows, whatever she thinks she knows, she has no proof." He paused a moment. "Or does she?"

 

Another interesting point arises; is it not odd that Cersei wonders that Lysa isn't there, if she knows that Lysa poisoned Jon Arryn? From her point of view if she did know, Lysa killing him and then immediately scarpering to the Eyrie would make sense, and she would be surprised to see her anywhere else. Certainly throwing around accusations would be dangerous ground for someone who just murdered their husband? Which would seem to point to Pycelle's involvement as opportunistic; whether or not they were planning something of their own or not, they made the best of an unexpected situation and ensured his death. Maybe to this day, neither Cersei nor Jamie know how or why such a stroke of luck occured?

[Taenqyrhae]

It was a little subtle, but wasn't there some strong evidence that Littlefinger manipulated Lysa by lying to him about who Jon was going to foster Robert with?  He either said that Jon was going to foster Robin with Tywin when he intended to foster him with Stannis, or the other way around, I can't recall at the moment.  I do remember a scene where another character finds out Jon's plans for fostering Robert, and they say "No, he was fostering him with X".

[DaveSumm]

Yes, I can't recall now whether he actually engineered that to happen or just told Lysa it was going to. There's a bunch of mentions of both, I should have paid more attention to who thought which plan was happening.

[DaveSumm]

Hmm....just searched for 'foster' in aGoT, Eddard actually gets told both versions and doesn't realise. Robert tells him that he planned to foster him with Tywin, then later part of the kitchen boys gossip is that he planned to take him to Dragonstone.

I can't remember the relevance though, surely Lysa would've been aghast at either plan?

[Lost Melnibonean]

Jon wanted to foster little Robert at Dragonstone. That's one reason Lysa murdered him. Then King Robert agreed to foster him at Casterly Rock, and Lysa fled with the boy to the Eyrie.

[WolfgangII]

The question to figure out if Cersei and Jaime planned to kill Jon Arryn is; When they did found out Jon was looking for Robert's bastards? And to answer that, we must ask: Why does Jon and Stannis started to look for Robert's bastards? What made them think Cersei's kids weren't Roberts?

 

I thought it was Barra who made them realize how different did she looked compared with Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen. (Given that they also knew or have meet Edric Storm, and Jon probably knew Mya Stone). But I wonder if Littlefinger or Varys (who I presume had more information on Cersei and Jaime relantionship than Jon and Stannis) started the rumors or whisper in both men's ears and lead them to Gendry.

[DaveSumm]

This article actually offers good explanations to all my issues:

https://bryndenbfish.wordpress.com/2014/03/19/the-falcon-of-westeros-an-examination-of-jon-arryn-part-2-the-hand-builds/

Cersei didn't just sit idly by while Arryn was close to exposing her, she arranged for Robert Arryn to be fostered at Casterley Rock so she could hold it over Arryn. Even though King Robert initially claims it was his idea to Ned, in the quote I posted above from Bran II, Cersei says "When he had already agreed to foster...". So Cersei engineered it. And she spells it out in the same passage: "the boys life would be hostage to her silence".

[Ser Pounce FTW]

But the only reason Ned suspected the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn is because Lysa said so. It's not like he asked Lysa the reason for her accusations or anything like that. Even though Lysa killed Jon, it wasn't a very suspicious death at all. The tears of lys were a subtle way of killing (unlike the Strangler that killed Joff) and Jon Arryn was an old man besides.

The best thing for LF was to wait until Cersei offed Jon Arryn, but maybe he was afraid that Stannis may do something drastic, and decided to take action first.

 

Yes, Ned believed Lysa's claims which is just what LF wanted. He didn't particularly want Jon out of the way. Jon was a casualty of his bigger plans. LF wanted to create more conflict between the Starks and Lannisters. He did not want the throne to get too powerful.

 

 

Sometimes I just want to scream.

The whole Jon Arryn was about to expose the Jaime-Cersei incest was just a huge RED HERRING!!!

The real reason was that Jon Arryn was going to take SweetRobin away from Lysa and give him to Stannis Baratheon to foster.

Littlefinger was having an affair with Lysa, once he found out about that, he persuaded Lysa to poison JA, then when King Robert started north to bring Ned Stark in as his Hand, he persuaded Lysa to send a letter to her sister warning her of the Lannisters.

What Littlefinger wanted all the time was revenge against the Starks for taking Catelyn, his one real love, away from him. I think at this point, Littlefinger was planning to get the Starks and Lannisters killing each other over the whole incest thing, getting Ned Stark dead and marrying Catelyn.
 

 

This is backwards. The red herring was that Robin was going to be fostered. He knew that information would get Lysa to act with urgency and do what ever he wanted and what he wanted was to further antagonize the Starks and the Lannisters. It wasn't about trying to get Cat. Even with Ned dead there would have been no chance of LF marrying Cat. He wasn't even able to marry Sansa when she was considered the daughter of a traitor. It was about his bigger plans for power not Lysa or Robin or Cat. And keeping his hands clean throughout the process.

[Lost Melnibonean]

 
Yes, Ned believed Lysa's claims which is just what LF wanted. He didn't particularly want Jon out of the way. Jon was a casualty of his bigger plans. LF wanted to create more conflict between the Starks and Lannisters. He did not want the throne to get too powerful.
 
 
 
This is backwards. The red herring was that Robin was going to be fostered. He knew that information would get Lysa to act with urgency and do what ever he wanted and what he wanted was to further antagonize the Starks and the Lannisters. It wasn't about trying to get Cat. Even with Ned dead there would have been no chance of LF marrying Cat. He wasn't even able to marry Sansa when she was considered the daughter of a traitor. It was about his bigger plans for power not Lysa or Robin or Cat. And keeping his hands clean throughout the process.

The boy's name is Robert.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

The boy's name is Robert.

 

"Sweetrobin, there are no eggs, you know that. Please, eat your porridge, it's very nice." She ate a spoonful of her own.

 

"Best make certain of it." Alayne slipped into the darkened bedchamber. "It's only me, Sweetrobin."

 

Alayne stroked his fingers. “There, my Sweetrobin, be still now.” When the shaking passed, she said, “You must have a proper wife, a trueborn maid of noble birth.”

 

 

 

I could go on but I think I've made my point. And yes, officially, he is Lord Arryn of the Vale.

[Lost Melnibonean]

 
"Sweetrobin, there are no eggs, you know that. Please, eat your porridge, it's very nice." She ate a spoonful of her own.
 
"Best make certain of it." Alayne slipped into the darkened bedchamber. "It's only me, Sweetrobin."
 
Alayne stroked his fingers. There, my Sweetrobin, be still now. When the shaking passed, she said, You must have a proper wife, a trueborn maid of noble birth.
 
 
 
I could go on but I think I've made my point. And yes, officially, he is Lord Arryn of the Vale.

So call him Robert or call him Sweetrobin. Do you refer to Sansa as Littlebird?

[DaveSumm]

Ugh, just when I thought I had my head on this 100%...

"You are mistaken, Maester," Catelyn said. "It was Casterley Rock, not Dragonstone, and those arrangements were made after the Hand's death, without my sister's consent."

Why does Catelyn think these arrangements were made after Jon died? Trouble here is, we don't see anyone telling Catelyn that he was going to be fostered at all (at least, searching for 'foster' turns up nothing prior to her arriving at the Eyrie when she already knows) so we don't know who told her. But my theory was that this was Cersei's plan to silence Jon Arryn, so what incentive would there be for anyone to lie about it and pretend this occurred afterward? The only explanation I can come up with is that she was about to enact this plan when Jon died (perhaps Jon knew of the plan?) and thought she'd better finish the plan in case Jon had told Lysa. So if, for example, it was King Robert who told Catelyn (I think it had to be at Winterfell, as we see all of her conversation with Ned in Kings Landing) he may have said that he thought it best to foster him with Tywin after Jon died.

Because if the plan really was enacted after Jon Arryn died, I'm stuck back with my original question: what was Cersei doing about Arryn's knowledge of her incest? Surely something?

[Ser Pounce FTW]

So call him Robert or call him Sweetrobin. Do you refer to Sansa as Littlebird?

 

I'll call him what ever I choose, thanks ever so much. In truth, I think Robin would be surprised at the attention but Lysa would be ever so happy that her Robin was being discussed. After all, Robin is the heir and everyone should note his importance. Dear, dear Robin.

 

 

 

Ugh, just when I thought I had my head on this 100%...


Why does Catelyn think these arrangements were made after Jon died? Trouble here is, we don't see anyone telling Catelyn that he was going to be fostered at all (at least, searching for 'foster' turns up nothing prior to her arriving at the Eyrie when she already knows) so we don't know who told her. But my theory was that this was Cersei's plan to silence Jon Arryn, so what incentive would there be for anyone to lie about it and pretend this occurred afterward? The only explanation I can come up with is that she was about to enact this plan when Jon died (perhaps Jon knew of the plan?) and thought she'd better finish the plan in case Jon had told Lysa. So if, for example, it was King Robert who told Catelyn (I think it had to be at Winterfell, as we see all of her conversation with Ned in Kings Landing) he may have said that he thought it best to foster him with Tywin after Jon died.

Because if the plan really was enacted after Jon Arryn died, I'm stuck back with my original question: what was Cersei doing about Arryn's knowledge of her incest? Surely something?

 

This. Jon wanted Robin fostered with Stannis but Robert wanted Robin sent to Tywin. 

[Minuteman]

Lyssa killed him with Tears of Lys she obtained from Pycelle. LF arranged it. Not any mystery as all parties have confessed.

[DaveSumm]

 
This. Jon wanted Robin fostered with Stannis but Robert wanted Robin sent to Tywin. 

I refer you to the earlier quote in which Cersei says "Robert had already agreed to foster...." which makes it sound like her plan. Robert may well have agreed with her though and not needed much arm twisting. But why would he tell Catelyn he (or anyone) came up with it after Jon's death?

[DaveSumm]

Lyssa killed him with Tears of Lys she obtained from Pycelle. LF arranged it. Not any mystery as all parties have confessed.

Is there evidence she obtained them from Pycelle? I assumed LF sorted them out for her. Why would Pycelle give her such a dangerous poison?

[Minuteman]

Is there evidence she obtained them from Pycelle? I assumed LF sorted them out for her. Why would Pycelle give her such a dangerous poison?

Probably because LF asked him to and gave reason that Arryn would expose Cersei's treason with Jaime and Pycelle was a Lannister stooge. But, with regards to how we know that Pycelle did it, in aGoT there is a small council meeting where Varys makes reference to Pycelle giving out Tears of Lys to which Pycelle becomes very defensive. It was basically Varys reminding Pycelle and LF that he knows everything. Pycelle later describes how Tears of Lys kills and it is exactly how Jon Arryn died. Couple that with Pycelle taking over care of Jon Arryn from his own maester (who may have otherwise figured it out and possibly given an antidote) and you have confirmation. I really didn't think this was less than canon.