Catnapping: a PSA

[Fauch]

Not really.

Tywin says himself he knew Stannis was a greater threat than all the others combined 'from the beginning.' (GoT, hardback, p. 642)

In between the death of Robert and Tywin's dispatch of Tyrion to KL Stannis did nothing. Therefore Tywin had no reason to consider him the greatest threat unless he already knew, on some level, how deep in shit Cersei had gotten the lannisters for some time before the war began.

This conditions his whole strategy. Are we really supposed to believe Cersei never told Tywin she was going to kill Robert and that Stannis and Renly were sniffing around?

The idea he didn't know about the potential and looming succession struggle when he pitched himself into a war with the Tullys is absurd. He would be furious if that had happened.

I should have phrased it better - There is no indication he anticipates a struggle before Robert dies. As for Cersei killing Robert there is nothing in the book supporting the theory she told Tywin.

In fact we are never told Tywin knows about the incest. Why would he anticipate a succesion war right then?

To claim that Tywin knew Robert was sure to die right there and therefore started the war on the Riverlands is completely in the realm of fantasy. Sure you can argue that way, but you can find arguments for almost everything you please.

Renly doesn't even believe in the incest, btw. He wasn't sniffing around. He merely disliked the Lannisters and wanted to replace Cersei with someone he liked better, the sister of Loras.

Tywin might have well prepared for the event that Robert would set Cersei aside - but this, as well, is complete speculation.

[Chaircat Meow]

I should have phrased it better - There is no indication he anticipates a struggle before Robert dies. As for Cersei killing Robert there is nothing in the book supporting the theory she told Tywin.

In fact we are never told Tywin knows about the incest. Why would he anticipate a succesion war right then?

To claim that Tywin knew Robert was sure to die right there and therefore started the war on the Riverlands is completely in the realm of fantasy. Sure you can argue that way, but you can find arguments for almost everything you please.

Renly doesn't even believe in the incest, btw. He wasn't sniffing around. He merely disliked the Lannisters and wanted to replace Cersei with someone he liked better, the sister of Loras.

Tywin might have well prepared for the event that Robert would set Cersei aside - but this, as well, is complete speculation.

Because he says he felt Stannis was a greater threat than all the others from the start and unless he knew, in some way, that Stannis would claim the crown on the death of Robert he had no reason to say that. And there was no reason to think Stannis would claim the crown on Robert's death unlessTywin knew, in some way, that Stannis was opposed to Joff and Cersei. Otherwise, why assume Stannis was a danger at all ..? Honestly, the idea Cersei killed Robert and pitched Tywin into a whole new war, without telling him is ludicrous. Tywin would be beyond mad. I agree the author did a truly lousy job of explaining lannister plans (an unfortunate failing that is repeated in CoK) but one can still discern that Tywin was being kept abreast of the situation by Cersei. The contrary view makes no sense of Tywin's statements or his character.

[E-Ro]

Because he says he felt Stannis was a greater threat than all the others from the start and unless he knew, in some way, that Stannis would claim the crown on the death of Robert he had no reason to say that. And there was no reason to think Stannis would claim the crown on Robert's death unlessTywin knew, in some way, that Stannis was opposed to Joff and Cersei. Otherwise, why assume Stannis was a danger at all ..? Honestly, the idea Cersei killed Robert and pitched Tywin into a whole new war, without telling him is ludicrous. Tywin would be beyond mad. I agree the author did a truly lousy job of explaining lannister plans (an unfortunate failing that is repeated in CoK) but one can still discern that Tywin was being kept abreast of the situation by Cersei. The contrary view makes no sense of Tywin's statements or his character.

I agree, here is the quote btw

I have felt from the beggining that Stannis was a greater threat then all the others combined.-Tywin Lannister

Knowing the type of man stannis is, why would tywin be worried about stannis at all unless he has reason to believe something is up wrt joff?

[Father of Hosts]

Tywin has spies at court as well. He knows what's up.

[Fauch]

It still makes no sense to me.

The fact that he suspected Stannis and/or Renly might make a bid for the throne has nothing to do with him invading the Riverlands. Unless you flat out claim that he knew about the incest, and knew that Ned knew or would know, there is no reason to make an enemy out of the Riverlands at all costs. In fact wouldn't he have tried to keep peace with the Starks and Tullys at all cost and deal with the Baratheon brothers?

In AFFC, Cersei is shocked when she finds out that Kevan knows, btw.

Even if he knew Robert would be killed, Ned was unlikely to make a bid for the throne himself unless he knew Joffrey was a fraud. In fact, if Joffrey was legitimate, Ned would have supported him, no matter how much he disliked the Lannisters.

Renly crowns himself without even believing in the incest.

Tywin has spies at court as well. He knows what's up.

Back this up, please. And please, no more "it isn't in the books, but it would make sense" stuff.

[juanml82]

Joffrey ordered Stannis to go to King's Landing to swear fealty. Stannis, along with everyone else, didn't obey and no spies were reporting from Dragonstone. Even more, he had left King's Landing after Jon Arryn's death and nobody heard anything from him ever since. Stannis was up to something. There is no indication Tywin, or anyone else, knew up to what.

[butterbumps!]

I've never claimed Tywin's actions are amoral or something. If anything, they should have caused his lawful execution for breaking the King's Peace. The point is this Cat can't wash her hands of blood of the Riverlanders. She knew she was setting things in motion in that direction. Oh, yes, she's not the one ordering the Mountain to rape, kill and sack his way into the Riverlands but she knows that's what's going to happen in some way or the other.

Let's put an example: when Austria-Hungary issued their ultimatum to Serbia, which eventually led to WWI, can we really believe the rulers of Austria-Hungary had nothing to do with the start of WWI and it was all in Serbian hands?

I am struggling to understand why you keep coming back to this, or what you're even trying to get at.

Look, no one has denied that arresting a member of a noble House will have repercussions. We are all taking it is a given that a lord, especially a lord like Tywin would challenge the arrest. This is something Cat understands.

I find harping on the notion that the Catnap would have "repercussions" a moot point as it pertains to this particular arrest, because, as I exhaustively explained, Cat did not believe at the time she had any other choice but to confiscate Tyrion because she thought he could just as easily confiscate her. Ergo, the arrest was made in order to stave off what she believed was an even more immediate and greater risk than whatever enormity Tywin chose to respond with later.

As a second issue, it is naive to think that Tywin had no intention of using force against the Starks/ Tullys prior to the Catnap. Tywin was emphatically ready for the Catnap (or some other excuse) to occur. Ned was not the only one thinking he had to move men into place to prepare. There was, in fact, a certain degree of Lannister conspiracy going on, though it wasn't what Cat had envisioned.

It's this way:

1. Cersei is planning Robert gone since she knows that people have caught on to the incest, and Renly wants her out, probably death, to put Margery Tyrell in her place.

2. Cersei and Tywin have communicated about the need to make a power play, and Tywin's expecting he will use force in the near future. He starts preparing. Speculation. Cersei, in her POVs, never reflects on communicating with Tywin nor sending him message, in any way, about her plans to kill Robert.

We know Tywin and Cersei communicate. Tywin talks to Tyrion about letters he receives from Cersei (though not the full content of them), so we know they are in provate communication (not even Kevan knew the news from the last letter when Tywin announced it). Both Cersei and Tywin share motive in getting rid of Robert. Crazy as Cersei may be, you don't honestly think she wouldn't fill Tywin in on the need to fortify Lannister forces given that she plans to kill Robert? Cersei repeatedly relies on her father's forces for protection throughout the series. It's silly to think she was not setting up this form of insurance with her father, knowing that she had to kill Robert and that Robert's brothers and Ned would try to challenge her power once he's gone.

3. Ned tells Cat to call his banners on her return to Winterfell. I don't recall if he orders a full mobilization or just fortifying Moat Caitlin. I think it was the latter.

I provided the passage upthread. It's more than Moat Cailin. He's having Manderly raise a fleet, and banking on Balon's fleet as well.

6. Tywin sends men to appear as anonymous Brigands to goad the Riverlords into declaring openly, and to lure Ned out for capture. Tywin may have been planning to do this even before the Catnap. The part in red is speculation, and I don't think there is anything in the text supporting it.

Well, given that this is not confirmed in a straight-forward manner, I said "Tywin may have been planning it."

8. Cersei speeds the regicide plan and Robert is killed. As I said, I believe Cersei had already dispatched Lancel with orders to kill Robert during the hunt before her chat with Ned. Riders were sent to the King when the Catnapping became known in the Red Keep, but Lancel doesn't specify Tyrion whether his orders came while they were already hunting or not. In any event, she had apparently tried to kill him before, during the tournament, and the strongwine was dispatched when Robert went hunting for a reason.

The only info we have to verify this is Varys' account, which I quoted at length and supports my position. So of the 3 accounts, 2 do not confirm it either way; the 3rd does, so for all intents and purposes, deducing that the order came after Ned confessed is the one that's actually backed up by text.

10. Robert dies. Jaime attacks and defeat Edmure at the Golden Tooth, starting open war.

Well, if this is how you see it, then it would be Jaime's attack on Edmure that causes the war to start. Not the Catnap. Which means you can't keep arguing that the Catnap opened hostilities.

Back this up, please. And please, no more "it isn't in the books, but it would make sense" stuff.

The major one is Pycelle. Not to mention, Cersei.

I must admit I'm not familiar with the sequence of events as I should, but was there even an opportunity/time to send the strongwine after the hunt began? Wasn't it given to Lancel prior Robert's company left and prior Ned confronted Cersei?

We're given 3 accounts of the incident. 2 of the accounts don't confirm it either way, but the last account places the order to kill Robert just after Ned confronts Cersei. Here's where I pulled all the relevant passages together upthread:

Here's where the incident is discussed by Cersei: "“He did that himself. All we did was help. When Lancel saw that Robert was going after boar, he gave him strongwine. His favorite sour red, but fortified, three times as potent as he was used to. The great stinking fool loved it. He could have stopped swilling it down anytime he cared to, but no, he drained one skin and told Lancel to fetch another. The boar did the rest. You should have been at the feast, Tyrion. There has never been a boar so delicious. They cooked it with mushrooms and apples, and it tasted like triumph.”

Note, however, that Cersei will not admit to the incest, even to Tyrion. In fact, she slaps Tyrion when he accuses her of it immediately prior to this. She is hardly going to admit that Ned confronted her about it as any sort of catalyst for having Lancel speed things along.

Lancel's account: "“The queen gave me the strongwine! Your own father Lord Tywin, when I was named the king’s squire, he told me to obey her in everything.”

Where it seems that Cersei had the strongwine/ signal sent after Ned's little chat is this part, from Varys to Ned: “Oh, indeed. Cersei gave him the wineskins, and told him it was Robert’s favorite vintage.” The eunuch shrugged. “A hunter lives a perilous life. If the boar had not done for Robert, it would have been a fall from a horse, the bite of a wood adder, an arrow gone astray … the forest is the abbatoir of the gods. It was not wine that killed the king. It was your mercy.”

The "mercy" in question is Ned's going to Cersei with his intentions. Just before that quote, this is the exchange:

Varys: "What strange fit of madness led you to tell the queen that you had learned the truth of Joffrey’s birth?”

Ned: “The madness of mercy,” Ned admitted.

Though Varys admit that Robert's days were numbered just after this, he confirms that Cersei moved things along after being confronted. People were coming back and forth on that hunting trip throughout; Joff had just been returned before this, and it's not at all a stretch that Cersei signaled Lancel to move it along by sending out strongwine after that confrontation.

[Fauch]

People are claiming that Tywin would have never went to war only for the abduction, which leaves us with the question, why did he attack the Tullys at all?

Nothing said here explains why Robert dying gives a valid reason for Tywin to wage war on the Riverlords, unless we assume that Tywin knows about the incest and that Ned is about to find out, and is sure he will have to defend the throne against the Stark-Tully-Faction.

So the general consensus is Tywin knew? This isn't supported by anything in the books.

Let's assume Cersei tells Tywin Robert will die (even though that is an unsupported fact as well) - why would that lead to the Tully-Lannister war? Especially if Tywin thinks Stannis is a bigger threat than everyone else?

I already provided the quotes which point to Tywin being willing to go to war over the issue of the arrest of Tyrion.

[E-Ro]

Let's assume Cersei tells Tywin Robert will die (even though that is an unsupported fact as well) - why would that lead to the Tully-Lannister war? Especially if Tywin thinks Stannis is a bigger threat than everyone else?

Because the riverlords are intermarried with the starks, and arryns, and all these people are likely to support stannis? Its not hard really, im not sure what the issue here is. Tywin has to attack fast so that he can cripple the amount of troops they can bring to bear, and prevent them from massing, the riverlands are the least defensible area of the kingdoms, hence him targeting them, and hopefully drawing out the vale and north one by one to be dealt with piecemeal.

[Father of Hosts]

It still makes no sense to me.

The fact that he suspected Stannis and/or Renly might make a bid for the throne has nothing to do with him invading the Riverlands. Unless you flat out claim that he knew about the incest, and knew that Ned knew or would know, there is no reason to make an enemy out of the Riverlands at all costs. In fact wouldn't he have tried to keep peace with the Starks and Tullys at all cost and deal with the Baratheon brothers?

In AFFC, Cersei is shocked when she finds out that Kevan knows, btw.

Even if he knew Robert would be killed, Ned was unlikely to make a bid for the throne himself unless he knew Joffrey was a fraud. In fact, if Joffrey was legitimate, Ned would have supported him, no matter how much he disliked the Lannisters.

Renly crowns himself without even believing in the incest.

Back this up, please. And please, no more "it isn't in the books, but it would make sense" stuff.

Pycelle is the easiest... Tyrion/Tywin mentions something about some of Cersei's servants being Tywin's spies. As I don't have an E-reader, it will be rather hard to find the exact Tyrion chapter.

[juanml82]

The only info we have to verify this is Varys' account, which I quoted at length and supports my position. So of the 3 accounts, 2 do not confirm it either way; the 3rd does, so for all intents and purposes, deducing that the order came after Ned confessed is the one that's actually backed up by text.

That third account is Varys, which is inherintely unreliable. As someone said, he might have been trying to make Ned feel guilty so he'll accept his deal and take the black

Well, if this is how you see it, then it would be Jaime's attack on Edmure that causes the war to start. Not the Catnap. Which means you can't keep arguing that the Catnap opened hostilities.

That sounds like an irrational defense of Catelyn's character. Jaime's attack on Edmure happened as a consequence of the Catnap. Unless you want to believe that Tywin was planning to ravage the Riverlands since the moment Ned became the Hand and, in that case, I'd ask you provide quotes from the books stating that such a plan existed.

You're providing an account of the Catnapp that makes Catelyn look all inocent. The issue is, to complete that account, you are filling the blanks and making assumptions that aren't supported by the books.

[King Aerys the Just]

Because the riverlords are intermarried with the starks, and arryns, and all these people are likely to support stannis? Its not hard really, im not sure what the issue here is. Tywin has to attack fast so that he can cripple the amount of troops they can bring to bear, and prevent them from massing, the riverlands are the least defensible area of the kingdoms, hence him targeting them, and hopefully drawing out the vale and north one by one to be dealt with piecemeal.

Yup. Tywin hadn't read A Game of Thrones so he didn't know that the STAB alliance wasn't conspiring against the Lannisters, and that abducting Tyrion wasn't how they were intending to initiate a war against him.

[juanml82]

Because the riverlords are intermarried with the starks, and arryns, and all these people are likely to support stannis? Its not hard really, im not sure what the issue here is. Tywin has to attack fast so that he can cripple the amount of troops they can bring to bear, and prevent them from massing, the riverlands are the least defensible area of the kingdoms, hence him targeting them, and hopefully drawing out the vale and north one by one to be dealt with piecemeal.

That's a waste of men. He's going after men who are neutral, who he shares a very defensible position from his end and whom he could turn to his side, instead of the Stormlords, who answer directly to Renly and Stannis?

[E-Ro]

Yup. Tywin hadn't read A Game of Thrones so he didn't know that the STAB alliance wasn't conspiring against the Lannisters, and that abducting Tyrion wasn't how they were intending to initiate a war against him.

Exactly.

That's a waste of men. He's going after men who are neutral, who he shares a very defensible position from his end and whom he could turn to his side, instead of the Stormlords, who answer directly to Renly and Stannis?

The riverlords, arryns, and starks will not be neutral at all. If it came to war they would most likely be with stannis, they all dislike tywin and he has no chance of turning them to his side, none at all, he knows it, and they know it. He thinks they are conspiring so he has to move fast and take out the least defensible part of the alliance first, while staying close to KL.

ETA: point being, he is close enough to the riverlands to strike quickly and take them out of action before they can even muster(which is exactly what he does)

[butterbumps!]

First, Fauche, I don't mean this disrespectfully or as a challenge, but I do want to convey that at this point, it seems like you are trying to argue for the sake of arguing over minutiae that doesn't even matter tremendously in terms of exonerating Cat's actions one way or another. While I appreciate a healthy debate and want flaws in my logic pointed out, it just feels at this point that you're looking for an excuse to continue seeing Cat's actions here in a negative light.

People are claiming that Tywin would have never went to war only for the abduction, which leaves us with the question, why did he attack the Tullys at all?

Not exactly, no. At least for my part, I am claiming that Tywin was preparing for war in the event that Robert's inevitable death required his military action. He is a man who does not wish to be caught off guard, and everything we know of his character and his and Cersei's relationship suggests that he's A. in the loop that trouble is coming for his House in the form of Stannis and Ned (Ned's being Hand is a huge problem for him), and B. the sort of man who would begin preparing and scheming as soon as he believed there was a threat to/ opportunity for his House.

Nothing said here explains why Robert dying gives a valid reason for Tywin to wage war on the Riverlords, unless we assume that Tywin knows about the incest and that Ned is about to find out, and is sure he will have to defend the throne against the Stark-Tully-Faction.

So the general consensus is Tywin knew? This isn't supported by anything in the books.

I don't think Tywin acknowledged the incest, and no one has tried to claim he knew and was part of the cover up. I did, in fact, address this point several times upthread.

Tywin does not need to know about the incest in order to consider attacking the Riverlands. As I pointed out, numerous times, Tywin stands to gain from Robert's death: he does believe he deserves the position of Hand, which can only happen if Robert is not king, and he strongly dislikes Ned's being Robert's Hand. If Cersei tells Tywin that she needs Robert gone and suspects the Starks are up to something (without specifying the incest), Tywin has very strong personal motivation to at the very least, prepare for hostilities, if not take this advance warning as an opportunity to scheme to move against those he perceives to stand in his way.

This is supported in the books in so far as we know that Tywin was preparing for whatever Stannis was planning when he fled KL, the fact that Cersei and Tywin share information, and the rest is easily deduced from everything we know of Cersei and Tywin's characters.

Let's assume Cersei tells Tywin Robert will die (even though that is an unsupported fact as well) - why would that lead to the Tully-Lannister war? Especially if Tywin thinks Stannis is a bigger threat than everyone else?

Tywin still had a problem named Ned he wants out of the Hand position. Tywin undoubtedly knew he was preparing for a Lannister-Baratheon conflict, and he knew he needed Ned gone (not killed, but no longer in the Hand's position).

Also, think about this for a moment. If Stannis goes off to Dragonstone, allegedly raising an army, isn't there a damn good chance Tywin would expect the Starks to ally with him? If Tywin doesn't know about the incest, then Tywin also doesn't know precisely what Stannis could be planning with this army-- would he be seeking to become king, or is there some other battle he believes Stannis could be plotting? If there is an impending conflict, it's much more probable the Ned would ally with Stannis (and or Renly) than with Tywin, no matter what the conflict was about in Tywin's mind. Eliminating Ned and crushing Stannis' potential allies makes perfect sense as a long-term vision.

I already provided the quotes which point to Tywin being willing to go to war over the issue of the arrest of Tyrion.

And those quotes were shown to be incomplete when you looked at the rest of the context.

And so what? Even IF the Catnap set off the war (which it demonstratively did not), it still does not negate the fact that Cat had no other option wrt arresting Tyrion. She is exonerated either way.

[Fauch]

Nope. If Tywin doesn't know about the incest no way he could guess Eddard knew. Why would the Starks ally with Stannis to usurp Joffrey? Is that something Eddard Stark would do?

[butterbumps!]

That third account is Varys, which is inherintely unreliable. As someone said, he might have been trying to make Ned feel guilty so he'll accept his deal and take the black

Well, given that this is a case where we are flagrantly told how it happened by the text, and 2 adjacent accounts that do not contradict it, I am putting more weight on the passage I pulled that gives the only account of the sequence of events wrt boar-gate.

That sounds like an irrational defense of Catelyn's character. Jaime's attack on Edmure happened as a consequence of the Catnap. Unless you want to believe that Tywin was planning to ravage the Riverlands since the moment Ned became the Hand and, in that case, I'd ask you provide quotes from the books stating that such a plan existed.

No, it wasn't. I was pointing out that you had a breakdown in logic. You had been previously claiming the Catnap set off the war, and then admitted you believed the war started when Jaime attacked at the Green Fork.

You're providing an account of the Catnapp that makes Catelyn look all inocent. The issue is, to complete that account, you are filling the blanks and making assumptions that aren't supported by the books.

No, everything I've argued is supported by the books, either in plain, straight forward text or by my supplying adjacent context and logical deduction.

Again, you can keep arguing these points, but the fact remains that Cat's decision to capture Tyrion was an intelligent decision and her best option as it pertains to the events that transpired just before the arrest took place. To show why the Catnap was not a "stupid" move was the thesis of my thread, and many of these points now being argued are somewhat beside that thesis.

Nope. If Tywin doesn't know about the incest no way he could guess Eddard knew. Why would the Starks ally with Stannis to usurp Joffrey? Is that something Eddard Stark would do?

Oh heavens. Where exactly did I ever say that Tywin would think Ned knew about the incest? Since Tywin likely does not know about the incest, there is a damn good chance he does not know exactly what Stannis is planning. For example, is Stannis raising forces to usurp the throne, or to merely expel the Lannisters from power? Renly is trying to replace Cersei with Marg, so there is that as well. So again, does Tywin actually know, with 100% certainty, that Stannis is planning to go to war to make himself king? I don't think so.

This being said, if the suspicion is that Stannis is making a move to rid the Lannisters from power (which would be corroborated by Renly's plan to get Marg as queen), then yes, Tywin has every reason to believe Ned "I hate the Lannisters and especially Tywin" Stark (and potentially Tullys) would be allying with the Baratheon brothers.

[Mulled Wino]

Whether its a kidnapping or an arrest. :bang:

They have reasons all right, as soon as Tyrion discovers her. Its your refusal to understand this that undermines understanding the whole interaction.

Oh, and caught on the hop means surprised. If the Lannisters dispose of Catelyn quietly and step up their war to the next level knowing Ned is onto them, and Ned has no warning, thats worse for him than if he at least knows first that Catelyn has arrested Tyrion and the nature of the game has changed.

talk about headbang. The whole thing with Jamie relates to how the Lannisters would react to Cat's taking of tyrion. Damn straight it doesnt matter. Hence my point.

And, of course I understand what you are saying about the Lannisters have a reason (allegedly) the second he recognizes Cat. That isnt true, IMO. Your view is not the only correct view. The Lannisters have little to no idea what Cat is up to. Her journey was secret, no one knows about what happened in WF, shit, she beat them to KL.

If their true concern was that, if Cat is recognized, she might be killed, I need to see it in the text because 1) then its dumb as all get out not to take a ship to the north, fuck Rodrik's poor stomach and 2) even double dumb not to camp out under the stars in the county and not go to an inn or a holdfast.

the argument if cat getting killed blah blah is just not solid period, it makes cat look less intelligent and we all know she isnt lacking there.

[Fauch]

This being said, if the suspicion is that Stannis is making a move to rid the Lannisters from power (which would be corroborated by Renly's plan to get Marg as queen), then yes, Tywin has every reason to believe Ned "I hate the Lannisters and especially Tywin" Stark (and potentially Tullys) would be allying with the Baratheon brothers.

Ned, who was well known for his honor would try to usurp the rightful King to the throne? I don't think so.

[Ygrain]

talk about headbang. The whole thing with Jamie relates to how the Lannisters would react to Cat's taking of tyrion. Damn straight it doesnt matter. Hence my point.

And, of course I understand what you are saying about the Lannisters have a reason (allegedly) the second he recognizes Cat. That isnt true, IMO. Your view is not the only correct view. The Lannisters have little to no idea what Cat is up to. Her journey was secret, no one knows about what happened in WF, shit, she beat them to KL.

If their true concern was that, if Cat is recognized, she might be killed, I need to see it in the text because 1) then its dumb as all get out not to take a ship to the north, fuck Rodrik's poor stomach and 2) even double dumb not to camp out under the stars in the county and not go to an inn or a holdfast.

the argument if cat getting killed blah blah is just not solid period, it makes cat look less intelligent and we all know she isnt lacking there.

If I'm reading you right, you have there an incorrect assumption which causes the misuderstanding here: you keep to assess the action from the point of what we know about the Lannisters' planes, whereas Cat assess on the basis of what she thinks

they know.

The lands travel is actually not that dangerous as long as she remains secret - it was one hell of a bad luck that she ran into Tyrion.