Catnapping: a PSA

[butterbumps!]

Ned, who was well known for his honor would try to usurp the rightful King to the throne? I don't think so.

Who has said anything about usurping Joffrey?

When Stannis departs from KL, no one knows that's he's planning to crown himself king. The Lannister do, however, know that Renly has already tried to get rid of Cersei, so in all likelihood, Tywin and the Lannisters expected Stannis to be preparing to oust the Lannisters from power, not Joffrey Baratheon from the throne. This would be supported by the fact that Stannis leaves before Robert is killed, so it's not even a question of challenging Robert's "children." It looked, very much, like the Baratheons were planning to oust Cersei, and thereby, Lannister influence from the throne.

[juanml82]

No, it wasn't. I was pointing out that you had a breakdown in logic. You had been previously claiming the Catnap set off the war, and then admitted you believed the war started when Jaime attacked at the Green Fork.

Are you kidding me? Tell me, when did WWI start? When Garvrilo Princip assasinated Franz Ferdinand or when Germany invaded Belgium? When did the Spanish-American war started? When the Maine blew up or when actual shooting begun? When did, back to ASOIAF, Robert Rebellion started? When Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, when the Mad King killed the Starks or when Jon Arryn attacked the Vale bannermen who remained loyal to the Targaryen?

Of course wars actually start when actual fighting erupts. But the reason why actual fighting begins is always something before fighting begins and the background leading to war starts even before.

So, for instance:

WWI:

Background: competiting imperial powers in Europe

Trigger: June 28th, Franz Ferdinand assasination

Actual start of hostilies: July 28th, Austria declares war on Serbia

Wot5K

Background: competiting lords in Westeros, one of them with reasons to question the legitimacy of Joffrey I

Trigger: The Catnapping. The covert assasination of Robert might have been a trigger, if the Catnapping didn't happen before but, alas, the Catnapping happened before.

Actual start of hostilies: the Mountain covertly sacking the Riverlands under Tywin orders. Hostilities weren't acknolowdged until Jaime led his men into battle against Edmure's

No, everything I've argued is supported by the books, either in plain, straight forward text or by my supplying adjacent context and logical deduction.

Again, you can keep arguing these points, but the fact remains that Cat's decision to capture Tyrion was an intelligent decision and her best option as it pertains to the events that transpired just before the arrest took place. To show why the Catnap was not a "stupid" move was the thesis of my thread, and many of these points now being argued are somewhat beside that thesis.

But your "adjacent context and logical deduction" are premises which provide a very strong support for your thesis. And said premises are debatable.

Oh heavens. Where exactly did I ever say that Tywin would think Ned knew about the incest? Since Tywin likely does not know about the incest, there is a damn good chance he does not know exactly what Stannis is planning. For example, is Stannis raising forces to usurp the throne, or to merely expel the Lannisters from power? Renly is trying to replace Cersei with Marg, so there is that as well. So again, does Tywin actually know, with 100% certainty, that Stannis is planning to go to war to make himself king? I don't think so.

This being said, if the suspicion is that Stannis is making a move to rid the Lannisters from power (which would be corroborated by Renly's plan to get Marg as queen), then yes, Tywin has every reason to believe Ned "I hate the Lannisters and especially Tywin" Stark (and potentially Tullys) would be allying with the Baratheon brothers.

Tywin got incredibly lucky in the Wot5K. If his actual plan was to attack the Riverlands so he could draw both Ned and the Northern armies, beat them all in the field and then turn southeast with the survivors of his army, then he's one of Westeros' worse generals.

[butterbumps!]

wwi

I don't need the wwi parallel. I was simply calling you out for something that was inconsistent.

Moving on from that, did Cat's arrest of Tyrion trigger further action? Yes. It gave a pretext to openly call banners, as one example. Where is the problem with that? I don't understand what the problem is with this as a trigger for banner-call. Singling out the Catnap as the significant trigger of the war is a fallacy. If you want a more clear-cut "trigger," look no further than the arrest of Ned. That's when it became "war."

But your "adjacent context and logical deduction" are premises which provide a very strong support for your thesis. And said premises are debatable.

Look, my thesis is about showing the context leading up to the Catnap to explain why the arrest was Cat's only option, and that while the Catnap itself was ultimately a mistake, she operated reasonably, intelligently and admirably in making the arrest. As it happens, much of what is attributed to the arrest as fall-out is also, incidentally, misdirected at this incident rather than the myriad other factors occurring simultaneously. You've tried debating this premise and thus far have not shown it to be incorrect.

Tywin got incredibly lucky in the Wot5K. If his actual plan was to attack the Riverlands so he could draw both Ned and the Northern armies, beat them all in the field and then turn southeast with the survivors of his army, then he's one of Westeros' worse generals.

I do think Tywin tends to be overrated as a general, but trying to preemptively neutralize potential allies of known enemies (Stannis + Ned) makes a great deal of sense.

[juanml82]

The riverlords, arryns, and starks will not be neutral at all. If it came to war they would most likely be with stannis, they all dislike tywin and he has no chance of turning them to his side, none at all, he knows it, and they know it. He thinks they are conspiring so he has to move fast and take out the least defensible part of the alliance first, while staying close to KL.

ETA: point being, he is close enough to the riverlands to strike quickly and take them out of action before they can even muster(which is exactly what he does)

He should know there is the chance of an alliance between Renly and Mace Tyrell - Cersei might have confided her fears of being displaced by Margery. He also knows Dorne hates his guts. So, if he wanted to take on the Starks, Tullys, Tyrells, Arryns, Baratheon and Martell with only the power of House Lannister, this is how things would have turned out if he wasn't lucky:

Roberts dies (which you and butterbumps think Tywin knew it will happen soon). Lannister armies smash into the Riverlands. Renly and Ned (who, in his minds are allies), coup Cersei and take his grandchildren captive. Game Over.

He inserts a new coin and start over. Ned turns down his ally, so Cersei coups Ned. Robb calls the Northern banners. He's already into the Riverlands. Lysa Arryn (who, as far as he knows, isn't convinced into neutrality by Littlefinger) calls her banners. The North and the Vale descend into the Riverlands. Game Over.

He inserts another coin. He's bogged down in the Riverlands, surrounded by enemies, but still alive. There is no army holding King's Landing. The Redwyne twins weren't taken hostage during Cersei's coup. Mace Tyrell, in support of the STABTD alliance, calls the Redwyne Fleet and attacks the Westerlands. Stannis assaults King's Landing with the Royal Fleet and the armies of the Stormlands. Game Over.

He's stubborn and inserts another coin. Balon Greyjoy sense weakness, since he's trapped in the Riverlands while the Stark-Tully-Arryn alliance has forces to spare, and attacks the Westerlands as well. Game Over.

One more time. Mace Tyrell attacks him in the Riverlands coming from the South. He's surrounded and defeated. Game Over.

Robb Stark doesn't meet Jeyne Westerling and the Frey alliance holds. Game Over.

Stannis doesn't bring a shadowbinder to the table and use her to assasinate his own brother instead of Cersei. Game Over.

Tyrion, who he doesn't really value, doesn't suggest the Tyrell alliance (which wasn't Tywin's idea at all. Even more, he wanted to kill the man who brokered the alliance). Game Over.

[juanml82]

I don't need the wwi parallel. I was simply calling you out for something that was inconsistent.

But it's not inconsistent. It's causality.

Moving on from that, did Cat's arrest of Tyrion trigger further action? Yes. It gave a pretext to openly call banners. Where is the problem with that? I don't understand what the problem is with this as a trigger for banner-call. Singling out the Catnap as the significant trigger of the war is a fallacy. If you want a more clear-cut "trigger," look no further than the arrest of Ned. That's when it became "war."

Calling the banners is huge. Really huge. It's openly threatening to break the King's peace. Doing it without the King's consent is an open defiance to the King. It's disobedience. And it causes a huge economic upheaval, referenced in how a large part of the Northern harvest rotted because there weren't enough hands to harvest it. You're essentially taking a lot of people from works which produce food and money and putting them in an unproductive position. It's not a military parade. It's not something done lightly, or just for kicks. And once you do, you don't send them back without a victory, diplomatic or military, achieved, or it makes you look weak.

Look, my thesis is about showing the context leading up to the Catnap to explain why the arrest was Cat's only option, and that while the Catnap itself was ultimately a mistake, she operated reasonably, intelligently and admirably in making the arrest. As it happens, much of what is attributed to the arrest as fall-out is also, incidentally, misdirected at this incident rather than the myriad other factors occurring simultaneously. You've tried debating this premise and thus far have not shown it to be incorrect.

How come? Many of your premises are assumptions. Claiming they are correct doesn't write them down in the novels.

[E-Ro]

He should know there is the chance of an alliance between Renly and Mace Tyrell - Cersei might have confided her fears of being displaced by Margery. He also knows Dorne hates his guts. So, if he wanted to take on the Starks, Tullys, Tyrells, Arryns, Baratheon and Martell with only the power of House Lannister, this is how things would have turned out if he wasn't lucky:

Roberts dies (which you and butterbumps think Tywin knew it will happen soon). Lannister armies smash into the Riverlands. Renly and Ned (who, in his minds are allies), coup Cersei and take his grandchildren captive. Game Over.

He inserts a new coin and start over. Ned turns down his ally, so Cersei coups Ned. Robb calls the Northern banners. He's already into the Riverlands. Lysa Arryn (who, as far as he knows, isn't convinced into neutrality by Littlefinger) calls her banners. The North and the Vale descend into the Riverlands. Game Over.

He inserts another coin. He's bogged down in the Riverlands, surrounded by enemies, but still alive. There is no army holding King's Landing. The Redwyne twins weren't taken hostage during Cersei's coup. Mace Tyrell, in support of the STABTD alliance, calls the Redwyne Fleet and attacks the Westerlands. Stannis assaults King's Landing with the Royal Fleet and the armies of the Stormlands. Game Over.

He's stubborn and inserts another coin. Balon Greyjoy sense weakness, since he's trapped in the Riverlands while the Stark-Tully-Arryn alliance has forces to spare, and attacks the Westerlands as well. Game Over.

One more time. Mace Tyrell attacks him in the Riverlands coming from the South. He's surrounded and defeated. Game Over.

Robb Stark doesn't meet Jeyne Westerling and the Frey alliance holds. Game Over.

Stannis doesn't bring a shadowbinder to the table and use her to assasinate his own brother instead of Cersei. Game Over.

Tyrion, who he doesn't really value, doesn't suggest the Tyrell alliance (which wasn't Tywin's idea at all. Even more, he wanted to kill the man who brokered the alliance). Game Over.

Yes, tywins chances of success were very low. Whats your point here? The fact that he had low chance of success doesn't help your argument out at all, it does nothing to disprove what bumps is saying.

ETA: He was going to strike at SOMEONE once robert was dead, the riverlands are the best choice. that happens with or without the abduction of tyrion.

[Fauch]

Yep. People who think you can "call the banners" then easily send people home two weeks later are simply incorrect. Banners called = chance of war 95%.

While I thought your original post was great Butterbumps, this whole "Tywin would attack the Riverlands no matter what, it was his grand strategic plan" sounds crackpottish to me. So if he's really against the Stark Lannister Baratheon Arryn Alliance his plan was to smash the Riverlands, then destroy the northern host, sail to dragonstone, and then take Storms End?

Also I don't buy this "Tywin knew his chance of success were very low thing". Tywin doesn't seem to be too worried before he knows Jaime is taken and his host is smashed.

Let's assume what you guys say is right and he thinks all these people are really working together against the Lannisters, then his chances aren't low, they are zero.

Tywin fighting for a lost cause? Not the type.

[butterbumps!]

But it's not inconsistent. It's causality.

If you want to state that that was said to show causality, then why, oh why, are you singling out the Catnap specifically?

Calling the banners is huge. Really huge. It's openly threatening to break the King's peace. Doing it without the King's consent is an open defiance to the King. It's disobedience. And it causes a huge economic upheaval, referenced in how a large part of the Northern harvest rotted because there weren't enough hands to harvest it. You're essentially taking a lot of people from works which produce food and money and putting them in an unproductive position. It's not a military parade. It's not something done lightly, or just for kicks. And once you do, you don't send them back without a victory, diplomatic or military, achieved, or it makes you look weak.

What do you think Tywin has been planning to do since Stannis left KL? And how about the fact that Ned wanted Cat to prepare for war prior to the Catnap? This didn't cause bloodshed in the way it is so often claimed, is the point I think you keep missing. It is one of many chainS of events. My problem is that you are attributing too much causality to this one event given the entire situation in which both Lannisters and Starks think the other is conspiring against the other, and oh, wait, Stannis is planning to attack Lannisters too and they could ally, and so forth.

How come? Many of your premises are assumptions. Claiming they are correct doesn't write them down in the novels.

What exactly do you think I'm presuming as a fundamental precept to the thesis put forth in the OP? That Tywin was already planning to be ready for war? We don't have to assume this; we know from the books that he was wary of Stannis' quick departure from KL and raising troops on Dragonstone. We know that the Lannisters knew Renly tried that move to oust Cersei with Marg. Given what we know of Tywin and Cersei, I would posit the assumption that they put this together (along with Ned, a staunch friend to Robert and enemy of the Lannisters) to believe that there was a very good chance the Starks were conspiring against them as well, and would have started preparing for that conflict as well?

Yep. People who think you can "call the banners" then easily send people home two weeks later are simply incorrect. Banners called = chance of war 95%.

While I thought your original post was great Butterbumps, this whole "Tywin would attack the Riverlands no matter what, it was his grand strategic plan" sounds crackpottish to me. So if he's really against the Stark Lannister Baratheon Arryn Alliance his plan was to smash the Riverlands, then destroy the northern host, sail to dragonstone, and then take Storms End? And he started with the Riverlands of all? Hmm.

Thank you. Just to clarify, though. I'm not trying to prove that Tywin planned to terrorize the Riverlands all along. I said he "may" have been planning such a thing, and I didn't base anything in the OP on that assumption. I'm arguing that Tywin and Cersei actually are preparing for conflict, and had been raising men as soon as Stannis mysteriously left and especially when Renly tries to replace Marg. I don't think Stark or Lannister knew what form the conflict would take; they knew they had to "prepare," and I think the Catnap starts to give focus to the already mounting tensions and preparations. So, just to be clear, that's what I'm arguing here, and that aspect wasn't a significant part of the OP either.

[A Crow Come Over]

My 2 cents

The decision to arrest Tyrion was objectively wrong, by which I mean that Tyrion was in fact innocent of all charges, and because it turned out so poorly due to circumstances completely beyond Cat’s control. However, it was the “right” decision for Cat to make, given what she very reasonably believed, deduced and expected would come from it.

This is exceptional mental gymnastics here, it was wrong to arrest Tyrion but its also right? Catelyn was manipulated into making the wrong decision, regardless if she felt she was in the right.

The disaster of the Catnap is not due to any fault in Cat’s ability to reason, remain unemotional, carelessness, or lack of foresight. The problem is that she analyzed the situation logically, but started from premises that were completely off the mark from actuality.

I agree here too (which is also confusing me).

She made an unemotional but illogical decision which ultimately backfired in her face, which was the intent of the manipulator.

I don't hate Catelyn and actually think she was one of the better mothers in the books, I just don't agree with any of the decisions she made which ended up doing damage to their house.

[Mulled Wino]

Tywin’s conversation with Tyrion, wrt the consequences of the Catnapping, is actually very misleading, if looked at in isolation. Tywin makes it sound as though he went to ‘war’ purely in response to the Catnapping, but this, I suspect, is because he wants to blame Tyrion for putting him out. In truth though, he didn’t invade the riverlands until after Cersei told him Robert was dead and Ned had tried to depose Joff. He also knew Stannis was on Dragonstone gathering sellswords and that he would likely make a bid for the throne. Therefore, invading the riverlands became a strategic necessity, otherwise the lannisters would give the Starks-Tullys-Arryns a massive staging ground in which to unite and fight for Ned, or aid Stannis, should they choose to do so. Attacking when Tywin did allowed him to defeat Ned’s supporters in detail (so he hoped) and then deal with Stannis. Leaving the riverlands and just heading to king’s landing left him surrounded there, and at the mercy of the Stark-Tully leaders in terms of having routes back to the west cut off etc.

If Tywin really had just gone to war, purely over Tyrion’s abduction, only to find himself also fighting for Joff’s right to the throne, because Cersei killed Robert in the meantime, he would have been incandescently angry with her, in the way he was when he discovered she’d allowed Ned to be executed. As we can observe though, there was no hint of that. Therefore, we should conclude that the war was really about striking first against Joff’s presumed enemies, and securing the throne, even if the Catnapping ended up providing the opportunity for the lannisters to make the first moves towards this end (and the plan probably changed considerably in between Gregor first being sent out and the actual invasion of the riverlands, as more news came from the capital).

this I dont doubt and makes sense, the wheels were set in motion. I can easily see Tywin just provoking Tyrion a bit with that comment.

[Mulled Wino]

Bumps, I read Cat 1,2,3 today and will post my notes tonight when I have time. I only have notes, obviously no conclusions but I tried to look for the cues you were talking about. I kniw you said what, cat 1-4 and tyrion 5?

[butterbumps!]

This is exceptional mental gymnastics here, it was wrong to arrest Tyrion but its also right? Catelyn was manipulated into making the wrong decision, regardless if she felt she was in the right.

It's not mental gymnastics. According to what she believed was true, she made the most logical, reasonable decision in arresting Tyrion. However, given what we know of the actual series of events, it was the wrong decision. She comes to the wrong decision for all the "right" reasons (i.e. she works out Jaime's involvement, suspects a Lannister conspiracy, thinks Cersei killed Jon, acts quickly in the inn because she believes Tyrion might capture her if she doesn't capture him). I think if you had read through the OP, I don't think you would have called her actions and though process "illogical," or my conclusions "exceptional mental gymnastics."

Bumps, I read Cat 1,2,3 today and will post my notes tonight when I have time. I only have notes, obviously no conclusions but I tried to look for the cues you were talking about. I kniw you said what, cat 1-4 and tyrion 5?

Cat 1-5 (5 is the arrest chapter) and Ned 5 (I think it's 5-- it's when they talk in KL)

[Chaircat Meow]

Yep. People who think you can "call the banners" then easily send people home two weeks later are simply incorrect. Banners called = chance of war 95%.

While I thought your original post was great Butterbumps, this whole "Tywin would attack the Riverlands no matter what, it was his grand strategic plan" sounds crackpottish to me. So if he's really against the Stark Lannister Baratheon Arryn Alliance his plan was to smash the Riverlands, then destroy the northern host, sail to dragonstone, and then take Storms End?

Also I don't buy this "Tywin knew his chance of success were very low thing". Tywin doesn't seem to be too worried before he knows Jaime is taken and his host is smashed.

Let's assume what you guys say is right and he thinks all these people are really working together against the Lannisters, then his chances aren't low, they are zero.

Tywin fighting for a lost cause? Not the type.

Uh oh. Rant imminent.

Yes, Tywin wanted to knock out the northern powers that would be opposed to him to secure his rear, so he could defend king’s landing from Stannis. He had to cede the initiative to Stannis as he had too few ships to actually attack him on Dragonstone: he had to await his moves. Doing that while giving the Starks-Tullys-Arryns time to muster and combine their armies would have been suicide. So he decided to pounce on them piecemeal. This worked in the riverlands, and, saving an unlikely series of events, would have probably worked against the Starks too (he hoped the Arryns would be cowed after this display). He could then position himself near the capital ready to deal with Stannis, who he likely assumed would command the Dragonstone banners, lots of sellswords, the stormlands and maybe some Reachmen. The way all of the Reach rallied behind Renly seemed to come as a surprise, at least to Ser Kevan. Stannis was the one they were worrying about. There is nothing farfetched or incomprehensible about this plan.

On your version Tywin wanted a limited war with the Tullys protected by Robert. Robert’s death threw these calculations to hell and he accidentally ended up in a vast war to save Joff’s throne. Yet he never chewed out Cersei or seemed alarmed at how badly things had gone wrong in the capital. That’s totally implausible. He even says, as has been pointed out, that he felt Stannis was the biggest threat ‘from the beginning.’ Attacking the riverlands makes no sense if he was worried about Stannis and didn’t see his invasion of the riverlands as part of the same war.

I agree, it would help if the author had been clearer about lannister calculations. Sadly he was not. I hoped Kevan might reveal some information about this when he had a POV but alas. This has happened before. In CoK the author left Tywin’s decision to leave Harrenhal and go west rather murky and had to specify exactly what happened in an SSM. The lesson from that incident was to err on the side of assuming Tywin knows most of the relevant information the reader does.

[E-Ro]

beautiful post that i agree with

brah, woah.

[Mulled Wino]

If I'm leaving KL, and I feel that my value as a possible hostage is so great that it would completely destroy the plans I just made with my significant other, OR if I feel like my life is in much greater danger than normal travel; Im taking a freakin boat. If I absolutely have to travel by land, I'm not taking the busiest road in the land and Im not staying at its busiest inn.

If I feel that worst case scenario, my enemies might know I'm up to something but not exactly what I'm up to, I might consider trying to take the easier road home and blending in with the crowd.

Now I am rereading the Cat chapters and I'm getting a paranoia vibe about Cersei from Cat. I dont know how this is going to change my conclusions yet, but I am definitely processing some forgotten or overlooked info.

I know Cat is smart, no doubt, but I'm impressed so far.

[bbstark]

I agree here too (which is also confusing me).

She made an unemotional but illogical decision which ultimately backfired in her face, which was the intent of the manipulator.

I think you're still confused, there was no master manipulator in the Catnap. Based on the information available to Cat she made the best possible decision. That doesn't make it illogical, Au contraire! That is what makes it logical !

This has been established repeatedly, and thoroughly in the past 13 pages of this thread.

I don't hate Catelyn and actually think she was one of the better mothers in the books, I just don't agree with any of the decisions she made which ended up doing damage to their house.

All characters so far have made decisions that have damaged their respective houses. Tywin disrespected his children, and got himself killed on the throne (literally and figuratively). That was quite damaging to House Lannister imo. So what's your point about Cat specifically?

[A Crow Come Over]

I think you're still confused, there was no master manipulator in the Catnap. Based on the information available to Cat she made the best possible decision. That doesn't make it illogical, Au contraire! That is what makes it logical !

This has been established repeatedly, and thoroughly in the past 13 pages of this thread.

i can tell the snark will be out in full force in this thread so I will tread carefully....

The only piece of physical evidence that she had was the dagger which LF told her was Tyrions, based on this lie, she arrested Tyrion, I'd say that was manipulation. Taking Tyrion to the Vale was also illogical.

All characters so far have made decisions that have damaged their respective houses. Tywin disrespected his children, and got himself killed on the throne (literally and figuratively). That was quite damaging to House Lannister imo. So what's your point about Cat specifically?

I wasnt making a point, I just said I don't agree with her decisions just like I dont agree with a number of other decisions made by other characters, but this thread is about Catelyn.

[butterbumps!]

i can tell the snark will be out in full force in this thread so I will tread carefully....

The only piece of physical evidence that she had was the dagger which LF told her was Tyrions, based on this lie, she arrested Tyrion, I'd say that was manipulation. Taking Tyrion to the Vale was also illogical.

I wasnt making a point, I just said I don't agree with her decisions just like I dont agree with a number of other decisions made by other characters, but this thread is about Catelyn.

I won't snark, but it is somewhat frustrating that the points you're raising are very unspecific and said in a way it seems you're opposing the OP without having actually read it. I know it's long, but I did put a lot of work into including citations and full explanations of the pre-conceptions you're raising. If you're going to come in to say that this decision is illogical, it seems rather disrespectful to do so without pointing to exactly where you disagree with things, and why you consider those things illogical. There's been a number of posters who have disagreed with aspects of the OP, but they have all pointed to some very specific criticisms without leveling categorical judgment on the Catnap as "illogical."

Now I am rereading the Cat chapters and I'm getting a paranoia vibe about Cersei from Cat. I dont know how this is going to change my conclusions yet, but I am definitely processing some forgotten or overlooked info.

I know Cat is smart, no doubt, but I'm impressed so far.

This excites me!

[Mulled Wino]

If I'm reading you right, you have there an incorrect assumption which causes the misuderstanding here: you keep to assess the action from the point of what we know about the Lannisters' planes, whereas Cat assess on the basis of what she thinks

they know.

The lands travel is actually not that dangerous as long as she remains secret - it was one hell of a bad luck that she ran into Tyrion.

the post definitely came across that way and good catch. Im definitely not the most succinct writer. My thoughts were that if, Cat was to be discovered to be travelling incognito by anyone, the info gleaned from the discovery itself doesnt give them anything.

Now, since you brought it up with that catch, I will say that I'm learning a bit more about Cat's conscious decision and her inner thoughts in my reread of only the Cat chapters relevant to the abduction or whatever people want to call it.

[bbstark]

The only piece of physical evidence that she had was the dagger which LF told her was Tyrions, based on this lie, she arrested Tyrion, I'd say that was manipulation. Taking Tyrion to the Vale was also illogical.

your original assertion was that the OP's perspective on the Catnap was "mental gymnastics", presumably because it couldn't have been both wrong (due to actual facts) and right (due to the facts Cat thought she had) to arrest Tyrion, because as you claim Cat was being manipulated.

LF told the lie to pin the Lannisters against the Starks, it's been already established that in the grand scheme of things, her decision was wrong, but with the information she had at hand (please don't make me write it in huge letters and bold font so you actually see it, I refuse to hate myself today) it was perfectly logical.