Catnapping: a PSA

[Maxpey]

Kudos to this thread. I can now properly boil pasta without burning myself. I accept that. :P Also, this is going in my link collection doc to whip out anytime catnapping is brought up.

I think the deciduously cute purring cat was referring to when Tywin actually attacked the Riverlands under his own banners. He didn't do this until Robert was dead. The terrorist campaign is something separate, and certainly something he can plausibly deny should Robert remain alive and decide to pick up his hammer again. The whole reason for the pseudo-anonymous terrorism is for plausible deniability.

:agree: Tywin engaged in two different campaigns at two different times. The "terrorist" campaign started while Robert was still alive and it involved using the Mountain and his forces to wreak havoc in the country. They were not riding under the Lannister banner, or any banners for that matter. However, they were heavily armed and rode war horses, so they were more than just simple brigands. Ned deduced that it was the Mountain who was leading them because of the description provided to him by the witnesses.

Tywin's subsequent campaign against the Riverlands occurred after Robert died and the realm was thrown into the succession crisis that ultimately resulted in TWOFK.

[Groat]

Great post Butterbumps!. As others have said I too have always been iffy about the Catnapping, but after reading the OP and some other comments you made in this thread, I wholeheatedly agree it was the best desicion Cat could make, at that time, considering the facts she knew. The siutation did not work to her advantage, but that has nothing to do with Cat, nor with any fault in her, but can be blamed on the numerous people working against her family, and her idiot half crazy sister.

That being said I have a few comments

Rhaegar suuposedly kidnapped Lyanna 15 years before this, and the Starks did not go to war. Indeed, Lyanna was kidnapped, and Brandon was imprisoned, and the king called Rickard to answer for their crimes, and Rickard answered the summons, he did not go to war. While the Starks were vassals to the Targaryens, and the Lannisters and Starks are on more even standing, I still believe this qualifies as proof that kidnapping a member of a lord paramounts family is not an automatic declaration of war.

Also, this might be because I'm a huge Ned fanboy, but I don't believe Ned's mercy is what killed Robert. There is very little evidence either way, but given the fact that Cersei was planning on assassinating Robert during the melee at the Hand's Tourney, I think she was pretty much in full blown assassination mode, and was looking for any available attempt to kill Robert. She even thinks something to this affect in AFFC, that when Ned starting snooping around she needed to eliminate Robert, not that when Ned confronted her she needed to. I think Varys was simply lying to manipulate Ned, make him feel guilt over the death of Robert so when Varys threatens Sansa Ned will do what he wants. I just don't like people blaming Ned for telling Cersei that he knows, because IMO, nothing really resulted from it, and it was a very honorable and decent thing to do.

[Dr. Pepper]

The fact alone that he called his banners is what is important here in my opinion. Calling your banners is a huge effort, you don't do this when you aren't at least prepared to go to war. There is no way Tywin possibly could have known that he would have to take the field against Starks/ Tullys before Ned spills the beans to Cersei.

If he just sent the Raiders - I am with you. But mustering an army, arming them, bringing Sellsword companies over, just to send them back home again if Robert lives? I doubt it.

He did just send the raiders. Tywin was not in the Riverlands - at least not under his banner or with his army - until Robert was dead. It's unclear when he actually called his banners. It might have been when Tyrion was catrrested, but we don't really know as far as I recall. Robb certainly called his banners when Ned was arrested.

Someone else can answer this, but isn't the fact that Tywin sent out the raiders and hired a sellsword company pretty indicative that he was planning for just the sort of event that would enable him to move back into a seat of power in KL? Does anyone actually think Tywin was happy that Ned -a perfectly healthy man who isn't know for taking great physical risks or being a drunkard - was given the Hand job, thus ensuring Tywin would not likely have the opportunity to mold his grandson in his image? It seems to me that Tywin was always prepared to make a big move and was just waiting for the right time.

[Zupoleon]

Great post Butterbumps!. As others have said I too have always been iffy about the Catnapping, but after reading the OP and some other comments you made in this thread, I wholeheatedly agree it was the best desicion Cat could make, at that time, considering the facts she knew. The siutation did not work to her advantage, but that has nothing to do with Cat, nor with any fault in her, but can be blamed on the numerous people working against her family, and her idiot half crazy sister.

That being said I have a few comments

Rhaegar suuposedly kidnapped Lyanna 15 years before this, and the Starks did not go to war. Indeed, Lyanna was kidnapped, and Brandon was imprisoned, and the king called Rickard to answer for their crimes, and Rickard answered the summons, he did not go to war. While the Starks were vassals to the Targaryens, and the Lannisters and Starks are on more even standing, I still believe this qualifies as proof that kidnapping a member of a lord paramounts family is not an automatic declaration of war.

Also, this might be because I'm a huge Ned fanboy, but I don't believe Ned's mercy is what killed Robert. There is very little evidence either way, but given the fact that Cersei was planning on assassinating Robert during the melee at the Hand's Tourney, I think she was pretty much in full blown assassination mode, and was looking for any available attempt to kill Robert. She even thinks something to this affect in AFFC, that when Ned starting snooping around she needed to eliminate Robert, not that when Ned confronted her she needed to. I think Varys was simply lying to manipulate Ned, make him feel guilt over the death of Robert so when Varys threatens Sansa Ned will do what he wants. I just don't like people blaming Ned for telling Cersei that he knows, because IMO, nothing really resulted from it, and it was a very honorable and decent thing to do.

Yes, she was already planning it, but the problem is assuming Robert made it back from the hunt unharmed, Cersei would not have had another chance to assassinate him. Ned's mercy gave her one last hail mary attempt, and it actually worked.

[butterbumps!]

Also, this might be because I'm a huge Ned fanboy, but I don't believe Ned's mercy is what killed Robert. There is very little evidence either way, but given the fact that Cersei was planning on assassinating Robert during the melee at the Hand's Tourney, I think she was pretty much in full blown assassination mode, and was looking for any available attempt to kill Robert. She even thinks something to this affect in AFFC, that when Ned starting snooping around she needed to eliminate Robert, not that when Ned confronted her she needed to. I think Varys was simply lying to manipulate Ned, make him feel guilt over the death of Robert so when Varys threatens Sansa Ned will do what he wants. I just don't like people blaming Ned for telling Cersei that he knows, because IMO, nothing really resulted from it, and it was a very honorable and decent thing to do.

Thanks! and nice precedent comparison.

On the point about Varys and Ned, I think there is an element of manipulating Ned into feeling guilt. The way I see it is this: Cersei was planning to have Robert killed for a good while, so it was only a matter of time. I think Ned's confrontation inspired her to speed things up, and that's when the strongwine was either sent to Lancel or signaled to be given.

For the record, I don't blame Ned for Robert's death the way Varys implies it. Robert was going to die no matter what. I think Ned's mercy only affected the timing of it.

[Zupoleon]

Thanks! and nice precedent comparison.

On the point about Varys and Ned, I think there is an element of manipulating Ned into feeling guilt. The way I see it is this: Cersei was planning to have Robert killed for a good while, so it was only a matter of time. I think Ned's confrontation inspired her to speed things up, and that's when the strongwine was either sent to Lancel or signaled to be given.

For the record, I don't blame Ned for Robert's death the way Varys implies it. Robert was going to die no matter what. I think Ned's mercy only affected the timing of it.

Sure, but as I said above, I don't think Cersei would have had another chance had Robert come back from the hunt and heard what Ned had to say. I don't blame Ned either, but he did leave her that opportunity to strike one last time...

[Fauch]

He did just send the raiders. Tywin was not in the Riverlands - at least not under his banner or with his army - until Robert was dead. It's unclear when he actually called his banners. It might have been when Tyrion was catrrested, but we don't really know as far as I recall. Robb certainly called his banners when Ned was arrested.

Someone else can answer this, but isn't the fact that Tywin sent out the raiders and hired a sellsword company pretty indicative that he was planning for just the sort of event that would enable him to move back into a seat of power in KL? Does anyone actually think Tywin was happy that Ned -a perfectly healthy man who isn't know for taking great physical risks or being a drunkard - was given the Hand job, thus ensuring Tywin would not likely have the opportunity to mold his grandson in his image? It seems to me that Tywin was always prepared to make a big move and was just waiting for the right time.

Sorry but this is flat out wrong, at least on the "didn't call his banners" part. From Ned, in GoT

"The west had been a tinderbox since Catelyn had seized Tyrion Lannister. Both Riverrun and Casterly Rock had called their banners...It had only been a matter of time before the blood began to flow."

Robert is still hunting at this time.

So Ned himself thinks war is inevitable at this point. Joff being illegitimate doesn't factor into his analysis of the situation, because he doesn't know yet.

[butterbumps!]

Sure, but as I said above, I don't think Cersei would have had another chance had Robert come back from the hunt and heard what Ned had to say. I don't blame Ned either, but he did leave her that opportunity to strike one last time...

Oh agreed. I agree with your assessment of it's being Cersei's hail mary pass.

Sorry but this is flat out wrong, at least on the "didn't call his banners" part. From Ned, in GoT

"The west had been a tinderbox since Catelyn had seized Tyrion Lannister. Both Riverrun and Casterly Rock had called their banners..."

Robert is still hunting at this time.

What exactly are you trying to prove? I'm unclear about what what you're saying wrt Tywin's response.

[Maxpey]

Sorry but this is flat out wrong, at least on the "didn't call his banners" part. From Ned, in GoT

"The west had been a tinderbox since Catelyn had seized Tyrion Lannister. Both Riverrun and Casterly Rock had called their banners..."

Robert is still hunting at this time.

Although both Houses had called out their banners, neither had engaged in any fighting; rather, they were marshaling their respective hosts in case war broke out.

However, the Mountain and his men were not part of Tywin's host; they rode under no banner for the specific purpose of shielding Tywin from formal responsibility for their actions.

[Fauch]

Oh agreed. I agree with your assessment of it's being Cersei's hail mary pass.

What exactly are you trying to prove? I'm unclear about what what you're saying wrt Tywin's response.

I was trying to prove that Tywin was certainly prepared to attack the Riverlands over the catnapping, and not only because of Ned's actions regarding the incest, as some people have claimed here.

Ned himself thinks war is inevitable at this point.

Sending the raiders can be interpreted in a lot of ways.

- Trying to scatter the Riverlords forces (Edmures wants to defend every piece of soil)

- Trying to goad Edmure into making the first big move.

[butterbumps!]

I was trying to prove that Tywin was certainly prepared to attack the Riverlands over the catnapping, and not only because of Ned's actions regarding the incest, as some people have claimed here.

Ned himself thinks war is inevitable at this point.

Ok. This is what I'm saying, and I think what the others are getting it (aplogies if I'm misrepresenting anyone's position)

1. Cersei is planning Robert gone since she knows that people have caught on to the incest.

2. Cersei and Tywin have communicated about the need to make a power play, and Tywin's expecting he will use force in the near future. He starts preparing.

3. Ned tells Cat to call his banners on her return to Winterfell.

4. The Catnap occurs.

5. Tywin sends men to appear as anonymous Brigands to goad the Riverlords into declaring openly, and to lure Ned out for capture. Tywin may have been planning to do this even before the Catnap.

6. Tywin and the Riverlands openly call their banners.

7. Ned confronts Cersei

8. Cersei speeds the regicide plan and Robert is killed

9. Ned is arrested

10. The North calls its banners and declares against the Lannisters

11. The War begins

5 and 6 are the wrong way round, but otherwise I agree.

fair enough. I thought they were fairly simultaneous.

[Chaircat Meow]

Ok. This is what I'm saying, and I think what the others are getting it (aplogies if I'm misrepresenting anyone's position)

1. Cersei is planning Robert gone since she knows that people have caught on to the incest.

2. Cersei and Tywin have communicated about the need to make a power play, and Tywin's expecting he will use force in the near future. He starts preparing.

3. Ned tells Cat to call his banners on her return to Winterfell.

4. The Catnap occurs.

5. Tywin sends men to appear as anonymous Brigands to goad the Riverlords into declaring openly, and to lure Ned out for capture. Tywin may have been planning to do this even before the Catnap.

6. Tywin and the Riverlands openly call their banners.

7. Ned confronts Cersei

8. Cersei speeds the regicide plan and Robert is killed

9. Ned is arrested

10. The North calls its banners and declares against the Lannisters

11. The War begins

5 and 6 are the wrong way round, but otherwise I agree.

[Fauch]

For 3) . Ned merely tells her to garrison Moat Cailin with 200? bowmen, not call the banners - in fact he isn't sure war will break out, though he considers it a possibility

The order of 5/6 is purely speculation, there is nothing that hints at that. He might have very well called his banners first, then sent Gregor to pillage.

[butterbumps!]

For 3) . Ned merely tells her to garrison Moat Cailin with 200? bowmen, not call the banners - in fact he isn't sure war will break out, though he considers it a possibility

The order of 5/6 is purely speculation, there is nothing that hints at that. He might have very well called his banners first, then sent Gregor to pillage.

“Once you are home, send word to Helman Tallhart and Galbart Glover under my seal. They are to raise a hundred bowmen each and fortify Moat Cailin. Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. Instruct Lord Manderly that he is to strengthen and repair all his defenses at White Harbor, and see that they are well manned. And from this day on, I want a careful watch kept over Theon Greyjoy. If there is war, we shall have sore need of his father’s fleet.”

He's having men start preparing for war.

I'm not sure whether calling banners first or pillaging mattered dramatically-- I think they were fairly close in time, and I defer to BtC's interpretation. Either way, it shows that the Catnap isn't this extreme trigger that caused an otherwise peaceful Tywin to attack or seek hostilities.

[Fauch]

I think it's time to agree to disagree since we are not really progressing in this discussion anymore. Just to rephrase my original point again:

The Catnap occurs, Tywin calls his banners because he feels it's a slight on House Lannister - there is no indication he anticipates a struggle, as he doesn't know about the incest nor that Robert will die soon.

In my opinion it is the Catnap that starts the Lannister-Tully armed conflict.

Everything of importance has been said already.

[juanml82]

I'm more than aware of why Tywin responds brutally to challenges. This doesn't mean that he is right for doing so, or that it should be treated as some sort of natural law that renders his reaction some sort of amoral known that the universe should bow to. Everyone knows Tywin responds brutally, including Cat. I don't understand what you're trying to prove.

Bran the Deciduously Cute Cat's response above points out how disjointed Tywin's reaction is to the actual event of the Catnap, showing that Cat's action was not the trigger it is so often assumed to be.

I've never claimed Tywin's actions are amoral or something. If anything, they should have caused his lawful execution for breaking the King's Peace. The point is this

Everyone knows Tywin responds brutally, including Cat.

Cat can't wash her hands of blood of the Riverlanders. She knew she was setting things in motion in that direction. Oh, yes, she's not the one ordering the Mountain to rape, kill and sack his way into the Riverlands but she knows that's what's going to happen in some way or the other.

Let's put an example: when Austria-Hungary issued their ultimatum to Serbia, which eventually led to WWI, can we really believe the rulers of Austria-Hungary had nothing to do with the start of WWI and it was all in Serbian hands?

Ok. This is what I'm saying, and I think what the others are getting it (aplogies if I'm misrepresenting anyone's position)

1. Cersei is planning Robert gone since she knows that people have caught on to the incest.

2. Cersei and Tywin have communicated about the need to make a power play, and Tywin's expecting he will use force in the near future. He starts preparing.

3. Ned tells Cat to call his banners on her return to Winterfell.

4. The Catnap occurs.

5. Tywin sends men to appear as anonymous Brigands to goad the Riverlords into declaring openly, and to lure Ned out for capture. Tywin may have been planning to do this even before the Catnap.

6. Tywin and the Riverlands openly call their banners.

7. Ned confronts Cersei

8. Cersei speeds the regicide plan and Robert is killed

9. Ned is arrested

10. The North calls its banners and declares against the Lannisters

11. The War begins

It's this way:

1. Cersei is planning Robert gone since she knows that people have caught on to the incest, and Renly wants her out, probably death, to put Margery Tyrell in her place.

2. Cersei and Tywin have communicated about the need to make a power play, and Tywin's expecting he will use force in the near future. He starts preparing. Speculation. Cersei, in her POVs, never reflects on communicating with Tywin nor sending him message, in any way, about her plans to kill Robert.

3. Ned tells Cat to call his banners on her return to Winterfell. I don't recall if he orders a full mobilization or just fortifying Moat Caitlin. I think it was the latter.

4. The Catnap occurs.

5. Tywin and the Riverlands openly call their banners.

6. Tywin sends men to appear as anonymous Brigands to goad the Riverlords into declaring openly, and to lure Ned out for capture. Tywin may have been planning to do this even before the Catnap. The part in red is speculation, and I don't think there is anything in the text supporting it.

7. The War begins, under a no-flags operation Tywin commanded so he can claim the Tullys started. Looking for a real world example, it's analog to Germany claiming Poland attacked them and their invasion, starting WWII, was a counterattack.

8. Cersei speeds the regicide plan and Robert is killed. As I said, I believe Cersei had already dispatched Lancel with orders to kill Robert during the hunt before her chat with Ned. Riders were sent to the King when the Catnapping became known in the Red Keep, but Lancel doesn't specify Tyrion whether his orders came while they were already hunting or not. In any event, she had apparently tried to kill him before, during the tournament, and the strongwine was dispatched when Robert went hunting for a reason.

9. Ned confronts Cersei

10. Robert dies. Jaime attacks and defeat Edmure at the Golden Tooth, starting open war.

9. Ned is arrested

10. The North calls its banners and declares against the Lannisters. Hey, Robb didn't "declare against the Lannisters". He obeyed King Joffrey's orders and proceeded towards King's Landing. He just called his banners to ensure his safety and, therefore, to be able to comply with Joffrey's orders. And if he restored the King's Peace in the way, even better! :P

[Ygrain]

Thanks! and nice precedent comparison.

On the point about Varys and Ned, I think there is an element of manipulating Ned into feeling guilt. The way I see it is this: Cersei was planning to have Robert killed for a good while, so it was only a matter of time. I think Ned's confrontation inspired her to speed things up, and that's when the strongwine was either sent to Lancel or signaled to be given.

For the record, I don't blame Ned for Robert's death the way Varys implies it. Robert was going to die no matter what. I think Ned's mercy only affected the timing of it.

I must admit I'm not familiar with the sequence of events as I should, but was there even an opportunity/time to send the strongwine after the hunt began? Wasn't it given to Lancel prior Robert's company left and prior Ned confronted Cersei?

[Fauch]

I read the book exactly as

I've never claimed Tywin's actions are amoral or something. If anything, they should have caused his lawful execution for breaking the King's Peace. The point is this

Cat can't wash her hands of blood of the Riverlanders. She knew she was setting things in motion in that direction. Oh, yes, she's not the one ordering the Mountain to rape, kill and sack his way into the Riverlands but she knows that's what's going to happen in some way or the other.

Let's put an example: when Austria-Hungary issued their ultimatum to Serbia, which eventually led to WWI, can we really believe the rulers of Austria-Hungary had nothing to do with the start of WWI and it was all in Serbian hands?

It's this way:

1. Cersei is planning Robert gone since she knows that people have caught on to the incest, and Renly wants her out, probably death, to put Margery Tyrell in her place.

2. Cersei and Tywin have communicated about the need to make a power play, and Tywin's expecting he will use force in the near future. He starts preparing. Speculation. Cersei, in her POVs, never reflects on communicating with Tywin nor sending him message, in any way, about her plans to kill Robert.

3. Ned tells Cat to call his banners on her return to Winterfell. I don't recall if he orders a full mobilization or just fortifying Moat Caitlin. I think it was the latter.

4. The Catnap occurs.

5. Tywin and the Riverlands openly call their banners.

6. Tywin sends men to appear as anonymous Brigands to goad the Riverlords into declaring openly, and to lure Ned out for capture. Tywin may have been planning to do this even before the Catnap. The part in red is speculation, and I don't think there is anything in the text supporting it.

7. The War begins, under a no-flags operation Tywin commanded so he can claim the Tullys started. Looking for a real world example, it's analog to Germany claiming Poland attacked them and their invasion, starting WWII, was a counterattack.

8. Cersei speeds the regicide plan and Robert is killed. As I said, I believe Cersei had already dispatched Lancel with orders to kill Robert during the hunt before her chat with Ned. Riders were sent to the King when the Catnapping became known in the Red Keep, but Lancel doesn't specify Tyrion whether his orders came while they were already hunting or not. In any event, she had apparently tried to kill him before, during the tournament, and the strongwine was dispatched when Robert went hunting for a reason.

9. Ned confronts Cersei

10. Robert dies. Jaime attacks and defeat Edmure at the Golden Tooth, starting open war.

9. Ned is arrested

10. The North calls its banners and declares against the Lannisters. Hey, Robb didn't "declare against the Lannisters". He obeyed King Joffrey's orders and proceeded towards King's Landing. He just called his banners to ensure his safety and, therefore, to be able to comply with Joffrey's orders. And if he restored the King's Peace in the way, even better! :P

This is how I read the books too. Couldn't have said it better.

[Chaircat Meow]

I think it's time to agree to disagree since we are not really progressing in this discussion anymore. Just to rephrase my original point again:

The Catnap occurs, Tywin calls his banners because he feels it's a slight on House Lannister - there is no indication he anticipates a struggle, as he doesn't know about the incest nor that Robert will die soon.

In my opinion it is the Catnap that starts the Lannister-Tully armed conflict.

Everything of importance has been said already.

Not really.

Tywin says himself he knew Stannis was a greater threat than all the others combined 'from the beginning.' (GoT, hardback, p. 642)

In between the death of Robert and Tywin's dispatch of Tyrion to KL Stannis did nothing. Therefore Tywin had no reason to consider him the greatest threat unless he already knew, on some level, how deep in shit Cersei had gotten the lannisters for some time before the war began.

This conditions his whole strategy. Are we really supposed to believe Cersei never told Tywin she was going to kill Robert and that Stannis and Renly were sniffing around?

The idea he didn't know about the potential and looming succession struggle when he pitched himself into a war with the Tullys is absurd. He would be furious if that had happened.

[Old-Growth]

Good stuff, Bumps. But shouldn't this be the "impnapping" not the "catnapping". It was the imp that got napped not the cat....