Battle of the Blackwater (Tyrion vs Stannis)

[sillent]

Hindsight is 20/20, I give this plan as a reader of the books who knows for a fact that the florents he sends will fail, that a freak storm will slow his advance to kl, and that the tyrells and lannisters will not only be joining up in an alliance but that they will have perfect timing. For what stannis new at the time, his plan was good. Again, I don't think it was that big of a mistake given the circumstances, but going and getting the foot himself instead of sending florents would have been a better move.

I guess Stannis knew that Dorne wasn't actually going to join in on the fight. He knew the Tyrells were up for grabs and didn't know whether Tywin was going to fight Robb or whether he was coming down to protect the capital. So I guess his lack of intel about the other armies makes his move okay because the storm is the only thing that saved him. If Stannis had actually taken the city he would pretty much have been screwed when Tywin and Tyrells cut his escape route off.

The weird thing is that Stannis seemed to be the type of guy who would choose guys for their merit and not their title, yet here he gave the task to someone who had JUST joined his cause and he knew nothing about, except that hes a traitor that Stannis must turn a blind eye on for now.

Destroy chain tower on the south side while waiting for fleet to arrive.

most of all, don't put a retard in charge of your fleet.

The weird thing is that had Davos been with Stannis instead of the navy, he could have probably pointed out that the towers were new, and that might've led them to figuring out its for the chain and destroy it. Stannis probably thought it was some random building that had always been there since he didnt know the port inside out as Davos had. The fleet itself wasn't necessarily in the hands of an incompetent leader, remember that they had been delayed for days and so didn't have time to scout out. Davos might have been more cautious, but I'm not so sure Stannis would've.

[Victor227]

The weird thing is that had Davos been with Stannis instead of the navy, he could have probably pointed out that the towers were new, and that might've led them to figuring out its for the chain and destroy it. Stannis probably thought it was some random building that had always been there since he didnt know the port inside out as Davos had. The fleet itself wasn't necessarily in the hands of an incompetent leader, remember that they had been delayed for days and so didn't have time to scout out. Davos might have been more cautious, but I'm not so sure Stannis would've.

Stannis was in King's Landing up until Jon Arryn's death, and likewise he was the -master of ships- and commanded the royal navy. Why would he not know the port as well as Davos?

[sillent]

Stannis was in King's Landing up until Jon Arryn's death, and likewise he was the -master of ships- and commanded the royal navy. Why would he not know the port as well as Davos?

Gah. Good point actually. I keep trying to defend this guy that so many of the fans and people in the books seem to respect. Especially with days of doing nothing you would think he could have figured this out and done something about it.

[Victor227]

Gah. Good point actually. I keep trying to defend this guy that so many of the fans and people in the books seem to respect. Especially with days of doing nothing you would think he could have figured this out and done something about it.

He could have just assumed they were lookout towers, or obstacles meant to bleed him should he choose to storm them. I don't think anyone even contemplated the idea before it was sprung. Even Davos.

[sillent]

He could have just assumed they were lookout towers, or obstacles meant to bleed him should he choose to storm them. I don't think anyone even contemplated the idea before it was sprung. Even Davos.

Well, from Davos' chapter, whenever they captured someone and put him to questioning, they were told that Tyrion was working on some boom, but they weren't sure whether he had completed it. If Stannis had done any similar recon he could have reached a similar conclusion. But that was the whole point right, that he literally just sat there for days without doing anything. Don't know the quote itself but Davos himself saw the towers and noted that they were too small / unmanned to actually bleed the navy or anything.

Davos then notices the chain and isn't sure what they could accomplish with it -- they could block them before coming in, or divide their navy in half by raising it midway but he didn't see the benefit of doing that.

Florent had expected wildfire, just not too much. So a bunch of these guys had pieces of the puzzle but since Davos only saw the chain last minute and didn't have time to do anything about it, he figured out the trap too late. Had Stannis seen the chain and had time to think over it, he could surely have done more thinking to figure out what was at play. (Especially given this is what HE excels at)

[Victor227]

Well, from Davos' chapter, whenever they captured someone and put him to questioning, they were told that Tyrion was working on some boom, but they weren't sure whether he had completed it. If Stannis had done any similar recon he could have reached a similar conclusion. But that was the whole point right, that he literally just sat there for days without doing anything. Don't know the quote itself but Davos himself saw the towers and noted that they were too small / unmanned to actually bleed the navy or anything.

Davos then notices the chain and isn't sure what they could accomplish with it -- they could block them before coming in, or divide their navy in half by raising it midway but he didn't see the benefit of doing that.

Florent had expected wildfire, just not too much. So a bunch of these guys had pieces of the puzzle but since Davos only saw the chain last minute and didn't have time to do anything about it, he figured out the trap too late. Had Stannis seen the chain and had time to think over it, he could surely have done more thinking to figure out what was at play. (Especially given this is what HE excels at)

Well, I suppose if we're defending Stannis and all that. He -did- just go through a huge thing. He's effectively having to deal with selling a piece of himself to murder Renly and Penrose. When you think about it, sending Melli away, his generally... well, passive approach to the siege of King's Landing, a lot of it could have to do with both guilt and the exertion weighing on him.

[noSer]

Nope. If stannis shows up with the cavalry, the infantry is joining him. The cavalry part of the army is the highborn part(read, the lords of the infantry at bitterbridge). The infantry would go over to their lords, with stannis 20k men around randyle and mace are either joining him, or dying. Any battle will heavily favor stannis and most likley lead to him winning.

Furthermore, the tyrell grip on their bannerman is said to be weak, randyle is the type to respect stannis and perhaps go over to him for position and influence he wont ever get from mace.

I have to disagree. Sending the Calvary certainly would have given him a better chance, but Highgarden was never going to join Stannis (unless they thought his victory was assured, Mace has no true loyalty to anyone), and Loras took charge of the foot immediately. The real key was Tarly. Calvary or not, the Tyrell's weren't joining him at that time, and the infantry would have followed Loras anyways if Tarly followed suit. If Tarly choose to treat with Stannis I don't know what would happen. Highgarden is by far the biggest player among these nobles, and no one loves Stannis. Given the choice of Stannis or Loras/Tarly I don't believe even Stannis himself would have made a difference. If the choice became Stannis/Tarly or Loras they probably would have gone to Stannis, but not before serious confrontation as the loyalties of the men were put to test. I just don't see Tarly hitching his wagon to Stannis unless he felt that there was no other option. I know Guyard the Green stated those who came over to Stannis did so bc with Renly dead Stannis became the rightful Lord of Storms End, but I believe that was just the honorable way of saying that they chose Stannis bc they had no other choice. There seem to be very few who chose Stannis other than those who had no other option. The Maces and Tarlys of the world would never follow Stannis given any other option. If Stannis had went to claim the infantry in force there very well could have been a Battle of Bitterbridge. I'm not a Stannis hater myself, but unless I'm wrong about Tarly I don't see how Stannis could have acquired those troops.

[JonathanTheBold]

if he could have take the city before the tyrells and lannisters showed up he could have held the city till Rob Stark took them in the rear so to speak

[Stan the Man]

if he could have take the city before the tyrells and lannisters showed up he could have held the city till Rob Stark took them in the rear so to speak

Trusting Robb to take the Tyrell/Lannister army in the rear is a big gamble, especially since Robb's army was pillaging in the Westerlands at that point

[E-Ro]

I have to disagree. Sending the Calvary certainly would have given him a better chance, but Highgarden was never going to join Stannis (unless they thought his victory was assured, Mace has no true loyalty to anyone), and Loras took charge of the foot immediately. The real key was Tarly. Calvary or not, the Tyrell's weren't joining him at that time, and the infantry would have followed Loras anyways if Tarly followed suit. If Tarly choose to treat with Stannis I don't know what would happen. Highgarden is by far the biggest player among these nobles, and no one loves Stannis. Given the choice of Stannis or Loras/Tarly I don't believe even Stannis himself would have made a difference. If the choice became Stannis/Tarly or Loras they probably would have gone to Stannis, but not before serious confrontation as the loyalties of the men were put to test. I just don't see Tarly hitching his wagon to Stannis unless he felt that there was no other option. I know Guyard the Green stated those who came over to Stannis did so bc with Renly dead Stannis became the rightful Lord of Storms End, but I believe that was just the honorable way of saying that they chose Stannis bc they had no other choice. There seem to be very few who chose Stannis other than those who had no other option. The Maces and Tarlys of the world would never follow Stannis given any other option. If Stannis had went to claim the infantry in force there very well could have been a Battle of Bitterbridge. I'm not a Stannis hater myself, but unless I'm wrong about Tarly I don't see how Stannis could have acquired those troops.

There might have been a battle, but you seem to forget the cavalry portion of the army, the portion stannis has, is the highborn part of the army. The part that those infantry are used to following, many of them would go over to stannis upon seeing their lords with him. The only troops who wont are the tarlys, tyrells, and hightowers. Any battle would see them completely annihilated. And with this enemy gone stannis can focus on tywin or taking KL without having to worry about another army showing up.

[illrede]

It's pretty damning that Stannis is Master of Ships, on the Small Council, in King's Landing, for nearly two decades and doesn't have a single loyal agent who remains behind in the city to send even the most basic observable intel.

Antler Men?

Those got rounded up just when they would have mattered in that function.

Littlefinger and Varys both decided that Stannis wasn't going to be king. Kings Landing was closed to his agents with prejudice.

[noSer]

There might have been a battle, but you seem to forget the cavalry portion of the army, the portion stannis has, is the highborn part of the army. The part that those infantry are used to following, many of them would go over to stannis upon seeing their lords with him. The only troops who wont are the tarlys, tyrells, and hightowers. Any battle would see them completely annihilated. And with this enemy gone stannis can focus on tywin or taking KL without having to worry about another army showing up.

I know Stannis is your boy and I'm not a hater, but we'll just have to agree to disagree here lol I personally think a lot of those highborns you're referring to (i didn't forget them i promise you) will follow Tyrell, Tarly, whoever, rather than Stannis. At least its not a given they will go to Stannis. You can argue they followed Storms End not Renly, but I'd argue they chose Renly bc they won't follow Stannis. Sure some were following their liege, and when Renly died they went to Stannis right away. The Lords still at Bitterbridge are not a lock to go to Stannis, particularly with Tarly Tyrell &co. openly against Stannis. These guys know Stannis and very well would prefer following the rose over the fiery heart. I'll concede that had Stannis taken their support less for granted and sent more than the three stooges to collect them things may have gone his way. I suspect though that Stannis knew in his heart, or in Mel's fires, that these men wouldn't follow him so rather than lose face by being turned down in person he chose to take the route he did. The bigger mistake was not marching on KL immediately, but then the argument of his ability to hold KL begins and that's not what I'm here to debate. Love arguing this stuff. Totally respect your opinion just have to disagree on this one.

[Boarsbane Baratheon]

Hindsight is 20/20, I give this plan as a reader of the books who knows for a fact that the florents he sends will fail, that a freak storm will slow his advance to kl, and that the tyrells and lannisters will not only be joining up in an alliance but that they will have perfect timing. For what stannis new at the time, his plan was good. Again, I don't think it was that big of a mistake given the circumstances, but going and getting the foot himself instead of sending florents would have been a better move.

This. Were allowed to judge because its already been done and we can clearly see the flaws. But imagine yourself with the much larger army and no idea that a large portion of it would be blown to hell. Without the wildfire he would have been in the city much sooner. Yeah hed be in a broken city, but Tywin has the northerners to worry about too. Theres no way in hell hes mounting a siege without Robb, Dorne, or the Vale catching wind that Stannis is in the city, a Baratheon with a rightful claim to the throne. All three of these guys had a bone to pick with Tywin so guess who theyd be supporting... At that point any of them could have come down on Tywin and the Tyrells. Also the "Renlys ghost" thing was pretty dirty. Lots of scumbag type strategies against Stannis.

[echidna]

Stannis needed to do a better PR campaign using the traders going into KL before the port closed. Point out that the city's starving due to the corrupt Lannisters, Varys and the insane Joffrey and that he was coming to save them. The defence of a city is hard with no volunteers

[illrede]

Stannis needed to do a better PR campaign using the traders going into KL before the port closed. Point out that the city's starving due to the corrupt Lannisters, Varys and the insane Joffrey and that he was coming to save them. The defence of a city is hard with no volunteers

He had those. Varys' network identified them for the Lannisters to round up and fling them from the walls.

[IRON BANK]

He had a couple of options 1. He could have joined his brother cause. 2. he could have joined with the young wolf after killing his brother. 3 he could have waited for scouts to come back from the kings wood, to get a clearer picture of the battle. 4. he could have taken Mel with him and used her magic. 5. Siege tactics The Tyrells were starving kings landing by closing one of the main roads if Stannis wasn't so short sighted he could have sided with Renly sieged Kl and then toward the end gotten rid of him. Stannis had all sorts of options.

[steely94]

One point nobody appears to have mentioned yet. He could have listened to Cressen (which he very nearly did before Selyse interrupted), and offered Shireen to little Lord Arryn. The match is a good one, bloodline wise, and if he promised them justice for the murdered Jon Arryn in the shape of Cersei's (or whoever he thinks did it) head (I know Lysa did it, but she can hardly admit), then that'd be the icing on the cake for Bronze Yohn and co. Maybe he could promise Lysa LF lives and gets a suitable reward. Assuming everything else went as it did, then Stannis arriving from the south, sadly without Renly's foot, all the force of the Vale arriving from the north, then it all looks rather bleak for Tyrion and Joff, and the Baratheon/Arryn forces might have numerical superiority over the Lannister/Tyrell forces (anyone got some decent numbers?)

Or, one force could hit the city while the other force held off Tywin in the field. Or the Vale could march on KL or Harrenhal while Stannis is still at Storm's End. Who knows?

And some 'might's: The Gulltown fleet might reach KL before Stannis's fleet, which may have allowed him to cross the river sooner.

If the Vale forces hit Rosby along the way, they might wind up capturing Tommen.

Seeing Stannis much the stronger might cause some Lords to rethink their loyalties. Rowan or Redwyne or Tarly, perhaps?

The Vale won't run upon seeing Renly's ghost, and that might give the ones who would run courage (or vice-versa, which would be bad)

[Pero the first of His name]

One point nobody appears to have mentioned yet. He could have listened to Cressen (which he very nearly did before Selyse interrupted), and offered Shireen to little Lord Arryn. The match is a good one, bloodline wise, and if he promised them justice for the murdered Jon Arryn in the shape of Cersei's (or whoever he thinks did it) head (I know Lysa did it, but she can hardly admit), then that'd be the icing on the cake for Bronze Yohn and co. Maybe he could promise Lysa LF lives and gets a suitable reward. Assuming everything else went as it did, then Stannis arriving from the south, sadly without Renly's foot, all the force of the Vale arriving from the north, then it all looks rather bleak for Tyrion and Joff, and the Baratheon/Arryn forces might have numerical superiority over the Lannister/Tyrell forces (anyone got some decent numbers?)

Or, one force could hit the city while the other force held off Tywin in the field. Or the Vale could march on KL or Harrenhal while Stannis is still at Storm's End. Who knows?

And some 'might's: The Gulltown fleet might reach KL before Stannis's fleet, which may have allowed him to cross the river sooner.

If the Vale forces hit Rosby along the way, they might wind up capturing Tommen.

Seeing Stannis much the stronger might cause some Lords to rethink their loyalties. Rowan or Redwyne or Tarly, perhaps?

The Vale won't run upon seeing Renly's ghost, and that might give the ones who would run courage (or vice-versa, which would be bad)

Lysa - ``Dear Petyr, i send you this letter because of an interesting proposition made by Stannis Baratheon...``

LF - ``NO``

[Erkan12]

Without Tyrion, after capture of KL, Stannis could defend KL against Tyrell host. After wildfire i don't think he has enough men to defend the city, but if we think it without wildfire things would be different.

Also capture of KL means, no Joff and no Cersei too. And no marriage between Joff and Margaery too, maybe Tyrell's would lost their hope of being queen.

The important point is, who knows Tommen location other than Cersei ? If Tywin and Kevan know that too, the alliance would continue, otherwise it would be risky for alliance.

So Tyrion took great part in that battle.

[Duncan the Average Sized]

Agree with post above, it is also mentioned by Garlan Tyrell that it was Tyrion's clansmen who managed to dispatch Stannis's outriders in the Kingswood leaving Stannis without the vital intelligence that might have changed his strategy.