Battle of the Blackwater (Tyrion vs Stannis)

[ab aeterno]

It seems to me that even moreso than the Imry or the Tyrells or Tyrion it was Varys who cost Stannis victory. IIRC the Antler Men planned to open the gates for Stannis when he arrived, and had the gates been opened, none of it would have mattered, I suspect.

[daario's man]

What I don't understand is if Stannis held the other side of the Blackwater Rush for days in advance of the fleet arriveing, why didn't he explore it? He would have found the towers and been able to destroy Tyrion's boom. I'm not saying that guarantees success but he would have had twice as many troops when he came to assault the walls.

[daario's man]

Stannis should have taken his 20k heavy cavalry and scooped up the infantry at bitterbridge rather then heading to KL right away. Instead of just sending a few florents, who got outplayed and outmatched by randyle resulting in their deaths. He would have the full strength of the reach and stormlands in this case, rather then just the cavalry portion of renlys army.

Unyielding support twined with constructive support, you Ser would make a fine Hand.

[sillent]

Stannis should have taken his 20k heavy cavalry and scooped up the infantry at bitterbridge rather then heading to KL right away. Instead of just sending a few florents, who got outplayed and outmatched by randyle resulting in their deaths. He would have the full strength of the reach and stormlands in this case, rather then just the cavalry portion of renlys army.

Can you be sure he would have swooped the forces at bitterbridge? Seems like the best solution I've seen so far actually though could Tywin have reached their first? If he got flanked from behind, and with no navy at bitterbridge given its location I'm not sure that would have been a sure win.

It seems to me that even moreso than the Imry or the Tyrells or Tyrion it was Varys who cost Stannis victory. IIRC the Antler Men planned to open the gates for Stannis when he arrived, and had the gates been opened, none of it would have mattered, I suspect.

I suppose. Though not sure thats the wisest strategy you can have for taking a city: assuming your guys will somehow manage to get rid of the guards and open the gates without getting caught. (Especially considering the number of spies there are, I'm sure that would've been a handy bonus if it worked, though by no means could Stannis' plan A be to count of the Antler men coming through.

[LordReaper]

I would argue that he should not have been attacking the city at all. He has the army and the naval superiority to keep it locked down while he deals with Tywin and Mace. KL was poorly garrisoned and provisioned - it would have surrendered or rebeled against Joffrey. And with the main Lannister-Tyrell army in the field defeated, he can take all the Kings Landings in the world.

The ultimate goal of a war should bever be "take the enemy city." It should be "destroy the enemy army." Without an enemy army, the war is over.

And yes, his lack of intel was disturbing, but playing against LF and Varys in the espionage department is probably not easy. Still, he should have had more, both from his old contacts and from Davos' old connections at Flea Bottom.

[daario's man]

I suppose. Though not sure thats the wisest strategy you can have for taking a city: assuming your guys will somehow manage to get rid of the guards and open the gates without getting caught. (Especially considering the number of spies there are, I'm sure that would've been a handy bonus if it worked, though by no means could Stannis' plan A be to count of the Antler men coming through.

This is a good point, plus Stannis had no clue that this was going to happen, and when you consider that he could have attacked either the King's gate, Mud gate or Iron gate they may just have opened the wrong one.

[sillent]

So between playing cautious siege to KL while dealing with Tywin/Tyrell -- avoiding KL and going for bitterbridge -- doing a better job of intel or managing the battle itself, it seems like Stannis isn't the brilliant commander we make him out to be =s

[ab aeterno]

I suppose. Though not sure thats the wisest strategy you can have for taking a city: assuming your guys will somehow manage to get rid of the guards and open the gates without getting caught. (Especially considering the number of spies there are, I'm sure that would've been a handy bonus if it worked, though by no means could Stannis' plan A be to count of the Antler men coming through.

If Stannis had gotten inside the city the goldcloaks would have routed and the Lannister guardsmen slaughtered. After that, assuming Varys doesn't smuggle them out, Cersei, and her kids are all captured or killed meaning Tywin can't really afford to act and puts his Tyrell alliance in jeopardy. Stannis getting in through a gate was the make or break issue for King's Landing before the Tyrells arrive.

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

You guys are forgetting that he didn't have the bulk of his army on the ships in Blackwater, it was on the other side of Blackwater Rush. It does seem that his biggest problem is lack of intel, but that seems to be a pretty common problem in Westeros (Looks how much trouble Tywin had keeping track of Robb, for example).

He was probably still operating under the assumption that Tywin was in the Riverlands/Westerlands. Going after him there would leave the Tyrells at his back and potentially bring him into conflict with Robb earlier than expected. Why not let the two fight it out?

He didn't seem to base his plan on recruiting the infantry at Bitterbridge, but perhaps assumed that the Florents would at least keep them neutral. His experience with Mace Tyrell probably led him to think he'd sit it out cautiously, not throw in his lot with the seemingly doomed Lannisters. That obviously blew up in his face. But I don't think he'd be better off by directly attacking the Tyrells before securing the city.

Also, I think people underestimate the importance of the fake Renly at the battle, and how many of his soldiers switched sides mid-battle. He might have been able to retreat with more of his army if they didn't defect, and prevent a complete route.

All told, I think Stannis' actions were all very reasonable, with the exception of leaving out the Red Woman. But absent magical intervention/magical reconnaissance, there wasn't much he could do to turn the tide.

[sillent]

If Stannis had gotten inside the city the goldcloaks would have routed and the Lannister guardsmen slaughtered. After that, assuming Varys doesn't smuggle them out, Cersei, and her kids are all captured or killed meaning Tywin can't really afford to act and puts his Tyrell alliance in jeopardy. Stannis getting in through a gate was the make or break issue for King's Landing before the Tyrells arrive.

Myrcella would be in Dorne and Tommen in an undisclosed location. Cersei Tyrion and Joffrey would be dead, but the Tyrell alliance would not be doomed for sure. I agree that getting into the city was key, though I don't think he was assuming his Antler Men would have been a done deal since there are a lot of things that could have gone wrong in them trying to open the gates from the inside. It's not like there was only 1 guard at the gate that they would just slaughter and open the gates..

Also, getting into the city wouldn't necessarily mean they would get into the Red Keep in time..

[Frey Pie]

A few different things i guess. The simplest thing would be to take Mel with him. With her powers it is possible she could have blessed the voyage with good winds, allowing them to travel faster, and she could possibly have done something for the wildfire-its all about time though

[ab aeterno]

Myrcella would be in Dorne and Tommen in an undisclosed location. Cersei Tyrion and Joffrey would be dead, but the Tyrell alliance would not be doomed for sure. I agree that getting into the city was key, though I don't think he was assuming his Antler Men would have been a done deal since there are a lot of things that could have gone wrong in them trying to open the gates from the inside. It's not like there was only 1 guard at the gate that they would just slaughter and open the gates..

Also, getting into the city wouldn't necessarily mean they would get into the Red Keep in time..

Good point about Myrcella and Tommen, that had partially slipped my mind. Getting to the Red Keep wouldn't have been a challenge. The battle was quite long and they would have reached the keep long before the Tyrells arrived, it seems. Tywin still would be held in check if Cersei, Tyrion and Joffrey were hostages though.

[Light a wight tonight]

One thing he could have done is sequester Renly's armor. That would have prevented the massive desertion that was such a factor in Stannis's loss. Beyond that, putting Davos in charge of the fleet would have been a good plan.

[sillent]

Good point about Myrcella and Tommen, that had partially slipped my mind. Getting to the Red Keep wouldn't have been a challenge. The battle was quite long and they would have reached the keep long before the Tyrells arrived, it seems. Tywin still would be held in check if Cersei, Tyrion and Joffrey were hostages though.

I might be remembering wrong but couldn't they have held the Red Keep for a while longer assuming the important people would have locked themselves into Maegor's holdfast. Though for the sake of argument even if it had fallen, I guess Stannis could have used those guys as hostages. Still from what people seem to be saying, Stannis was too late by a few hours(?) in getting the doors open. If that was the case I'm pretty sure iron-spike dry moat of Maegor's holdfast could have surely stalled his forces for that amount of time. I can't remember if within the holdfast Cersei had enough lannister men or if they were all random goldcloaks who would turn/flee though.

Another interesting thing that came up in this thread was whether or not Stannis' forces could have destroyed the chain since he had arrived to the area days before the navy. It seemed like they pretty much made tents and sat around waiting for everyone to show up -- with the occasional flurry of arrows being exchanged between them and the city.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I might be remembering wrong but couldn't they have held the Red Keep for a while longer assuming the important people would have locked themselves into Maegor's holdfast. Though for the sake of argument even if it had fallen, I guess Stannis could have used those guys as hostages. Still from what people seem to be saying, Stannis was too late by a few hours(?) in getting the doors open. If that was the case I'm pretty sure iron-spike dry moat of Maegor's holdfast could have surely stalled his forces for that amount of time. I can't remember if within the holdfast Cersei had enough lannister men or if they were all random goldcloaks who would turn/flee though.

No, not with the Goldcloaks and sellswords after they broke in KL themselves. Actual troops of House Lannister could maybe, but there are about five KG and five otherwise loyal soldiers that would defend the Red Keep or Maegor's Holdfast while the Goldcloaks and sellswords surrendered or deserted.

Every Lannister guardsman in KL was sitting in the dungeons of Riverrun or hanging from it's walls.

[Kanali]

The Lannister-Tyrell army was too much, and that's what sunk him. There's nothing he could have done to beat them while laying siege to King's Landing.

[E-Ro]

I'm on my phone so I can't really explain the whole "scoop" up the infantry thing, but I will later. Anyway I am confident that tywin could not have gotten there before stannis and that had stannis shown up the majority of reach men would support him.

[Chaircat Meow]

No, not with the Goldcloaks and sellswords after they broke in KL themselves. Actual troops of House Lannister could maybe, but there are about five KG and five otherwise loyal soldiers that would defend the Red Keep or Maegor's Holdfast while the Goldcloaks and sellswords surrendered or deserted.

Every Lannister guardsman in KL was sitting in the dungeons of Riverrun or hanging from it's walls.

And tbh it always struck me as very implausible Tyrion never thought to ask Tywin to send him a replacement garrison down from HH.

Not securing the Red Keep properly is too dumb a mistake on Tyrion's part for it to be intentional on the part of the author, in my view. Even Cersei would have thought of doing this.

[Fightbringer]

Stannis is a fine naval commander himself(Greyjoy rebellion). If Stannis was holding the Red Keep by the time the Tyrells showed up, I'd think the Iron Throne would be as good as his(Seige at Storm's End).

difference is this time is ned stark wont be around to save him, holding up in storms end was only successful for stannis because his wasnt the only rebel army in westeros, so he had hope of relief, whereas in WoFK the army that attacked KL was his only army

[Bright Blue Eyes]

And tbh it always struck me as very implausible Tyrion never thought to ask Tywin to send him a replacement garrison down from HH.

Not securing the Red Keep properly is too dumb a mistake on Tyrion's part for it to be intentional on the part of the author, in my view. Even Cersei would have thought of doing this.

Tyrion was fine without any Lannister guardsmen in KL. He intended there to be no Lannister guardsmen in KL - because they'd listen to Cersei as well as to him, unlike Bywater's Goldcloaks, Bronn's sellswords and the Mountain Clans. That's at least half the reason he sent them to Riverrun in the first place.