Battle of the Blackwater (Tyrion vs Stannis)

[Chaircat Meow]

Tyrion was fine without any Lannister guardsmen in KL. He intended there to be no Lannister guardsmen in KL - because they'd listen to Cersei as well as to him, unlike Bywater's Goldcloaks, Bronn's sellswords and the Mountain Clans. That's at least half the reason he sent them to Riverrun in the first place.

Lol. Yea, you're right.

[ejhawman]

The pre-battle intel is key, as everyone seems to agree. This is a shortcoming of Stannis in general: he doesn't do subterfuge, doesn't make his own intelligence network or play political games, so when caught with the duty to take the IT, by force if necessary, he has only crude tools and little knowledge of the situation. Someone more of a player, with good intel gathering skills, would have devised a more cautious plan that would have at least wiped out the Lannisters on the throne before getting chased from KL by Tywin, Mace, and Randyll. Which leaves the 7K an even bigger mess than before, but Stannis would have an enhanced position.

But really, the best thing he could have done was swallow his pride and bring Mel. "Oh look... I sense fire here, sleeping under the city... it wants to be free... Lord of Light, LET IT BE FREE!"

Flash of her eyes, and KL blows up. But fires would still be burning by morning, so the same situation obtains: Stannis backs off, royal family is dead, Mace and Randyll have to decide whether to stay tight with Tywin or go over to Stan.

And, of course, the series is shorter by three books. :crying:

[Victor227]

He'd have the sea open to him though and way more men to put on the walls. He could have held the walls and supplied KL through the harbor. Or he could have decorated the Red Keep with heads and retreat.

The sea was closed to King's Landing, remember? We know from Tyrion's Storm of Swords chapters that with the utter devastation in the bay, especially near the gates, that it was impossible to bring in any larger ships. What's more, where is Stannis shipping in this food from? And how much of it? We know large ships are out, so he certainly can't feed the entire city.

Between the inevitable sacking (even Stannis can't keep his men in line during a sack. It's nigh-impossible) and the ensuing starvation of a siege, Stannis would be sitting on a throne with the corpses of the entirety of King's Landing rotting in the streets. Cannibalism would be rampant, the civilian population dying en masse and rioting at every turn (and hundreds of thousands of angry, starving people are a lethal force). That's assuming the Red Keep even falls. If Tywin's forces arrive before it does, they -will- have the encouragement to hole up and take a proper siege. Even sellswords aren't going to just surrender when they see the sacking going on outside, they're going to hole up, wait for it to subside, and hammer out some terms to ensure their own safety.

It would be an entirely different war really, if Stannis made it in. Too much goes into the 'what ifs' to just assume a simple clean outcome like Tywin and Tyrell standing down and begging forgiveness from the supreme and benevolent King Stannis, no matter if he's the best person for the job.

[sillent]

It's definitely interesting that the one live instance we have of Stannis is him not making the best of decisions. I feel like a lot of people give him credit for being this brilliant commander (mainly for defeating the ironborn and the fact that all the lannisters are scared of him) but recent events suggest otherwise.

I think if the sellswords joined in on the sacking they could possibly have been left alone. Though I guess it would be a different ball game if Tywin showed up before that, they would have to guess which side would be victorious.

Stannis had siege units though, so I think the possibility of him breaking down the towers that secured the chain was pretty real, esp given the fact that he was sitting idle for a few days. (Or was the navy carrying the siege units?).

Best decision to me so far seems to be him avoiding KL altogether -- and going for the bitterbridge idea. I guess if he was all on cavalry he would have beaten Tywin, though I'm not good on timelines. Can't remember when Tywin departed Harrenhal in relation to Stannis marching from Storms End. Also not sure how much that skirmish was lost due to the lack of skill on the guy Stannis had sent.

Edit: The reason I didn't really want to include Mel in this discussion is that we don't really know what she could or couldn't do. She can see events in her flames, and she can birth shadow babies after doing it with a king, along with maybe using charms to change peoples appearance. So she may have warned Stannis against the wildfire, but there's no way to know whether Stannis could get this information to the navy guys in time. She probably couldn't make the wildfire explode on its own, since that doesn't seem to be part of her skillset.

[The Mountain That Flies]

One thing that has always puzzled me (and seesm to have been brought up here a bit) is why Stannis wasn't taking a more active role in plotting his naval strategy. He seems to have left everything up to Imry Florent without checking up on the guy at all. Given that Stannis was the Master of Ships, his greatest military victories to date were at sea, and he had been sitting outside King's Landing for days with nothing to do but think, it's a bit baffeling. Though I suppose there's no guarentee Stannis would have used scout ships either given his numerical advanatge, and as has been mentioned, taking the time to be catious would have left him equally open to Tywin/Mace.

Best decision to me so far seems to be him avoiding KL altogether -- and going for the bitterbridge idea. I guess if he was all on cavalry he would have beaten Tywin, though I'm not good on timelines. Can't remember when Tywin departed Harrenhal in relation to Stannis marching from Storms End. Also not sure how much that skirmish was lost due to the lack of skill on the guy Stannis had sent.

This seems to be the consesus. As I recall, Tywin was in Harrenhall until word reached him of Renly's death, which is also when Littlefinger went to Bitterbridge to recruit the Tyrells. Realistically, if Stannis had gone for Bitterbridge immediatly after Renly's death he could have recuited Renly's foot soldiers, who would have been more useful in a siege than the heavy horse and further increased Stannis' forces. Even if he wasn't anticipating Tywin or Littlefinger's movement, leaving a ton of soldiers that could be yours just lying around is wasteful, especially when there is a multi-sided war going on.

[Petyr Patter]

I think some posters are underplaying the importance of the Iron Throne, as in the actual Iron Throne. This isn't a strategy game where one gets to move their armies about the board without concern for loyalty, desertion, or propaganda. If Joffrey's pale hiney isn't sitting on the Iron Throne, can Tyrion broker a peace with Dorne? Does High Tower, Redwyne, and Rowan continue to follow the Tyrells when a proven Baratheon and proven war leader take the Iron Throne? Would knights from the Vale start declaring for Stannis once he's taken the Iron Throne?

Going after the IT with single determination was the right thing to do, but really Tyrion beat him at the diplomacy game. He kept Dorne out of the conflict by promising a royal marriage. It bears repeating that promising Joffrey to Margaery was Tyrion's idea, and the backbone of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. Had Tyrion not so quickly tried to turn Tyrell from Stag to Lion, the houses of the Reach not following Stannis immediately after Renly's death would have come around soon after the capture of King's Landing and execution of some combination of Cersei, Joffrey, Tyrion, and small council. Tywin then would have been desperate for a peace that got him as many of his children and grandchildren back as possible.

Obviously, a lot could happen, but its a lot easier for people to believe one's a king when they sit on a king's throne.

[sillent]

...why Stannis wasn't taking a more active role in plotting his naval strategy ...

...leaving a ton of soldiers that could be yours just lying around is wasteful, especially when there is a multi-sided war going on.

And these two things really puzzle me too. Stannis seems like a smart guy except over here he's making pretty rookie mistakes. So was he intentionally dumbed down only here merely because the plot needed to go a certain way according to Martin, or was he being negligent because of his superior force (which seems silly to me because there is a multi-sided war going on) or is Stannis really not as capable as we make him out to be.

I mean you can argue that retrospectively you can see a lot of these mistakes, except thats not really true cause I'd argue these are pretty big mistakes a seasoned commander like Stannis should not be making:

Stannis sends a random to bitterbridge.

Stannis has no real naval strategy and gives command to yet another random.

Stannis chills for days at the battlefield without really doing anything (break the chain!)

[Silent_Hero]

I think some posters are underplaying the importance of the Iron Throne, as in the actual Iron Throne. This isn't a strategy game where one gets to move their armies about the board without concern for loyalty, desertion, or propaganda. If Joffrey's pale hiney isn't sitting on the Iron Throne, can Tyrion broker a peace with Dorne? Does High Tower, Redwyne, and Rowan continue to follow the Tyrells when a proven Baratheon and proven war leader take the Iron Throne? Would knights from the Vale start declaring for Stannis once he's taken the Iron Throne?

Going after the IT with single determination was the right thing to do, but really Tyrion beat him at the diplomacy game. He kept Dorne out of the conflict by promising a royal marriage. It bears repeating that promising Joffrey to Margaery was Tyrion's idea, and the backbone of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. Had Tyrion not so quickly tried to turn Tyrell from Stag to Lion, the houses of the Reach not following Stannis immediately after Renly's death would have come around soon after the capture of King's Landing and execution of some combination of Cersei, Joffrey, Tyrion, and small council. Tywin then would have been desperate for a peace that got him as many of his children and grandchildren back as possible.

Obviously, a lot could happen, but its a lot easier for people to believe one's a king when they sit on a king's throne.

This. Stannis left Imry Florentine in charge of the fleet, the fleet really didnt have much of a fight, all they had to do was secure the Blackwater against what 6 lannister ships? The Wildfire really messed him up but he still managed to turn it around and attack the city almost winning before Tywin came.

[ab aeterno]

I might be remembering wrong but couldn't they have held the Red Keep for a while longer assuming the important people would have locked themselves into Maegor's holdfast. Though for the sake of argument even if it had fallen, I guess Stannis could have used those guys as hostages. Still from what people seem to be saying, Stannis was too late by a few hours(?) in getting the doors open. If that was the case I'm pretty sure iron-spike dry moat of Maegor's holdfast could have surely stalled his forces for that amount of time. I can't remember if within the holdfast Cersei had enough lannister men or if they were all random goldcloaks who would turn/flee though.

Another interesting thing that came up in this thread was whether or not Stannis' forces could have destroyed the chain since he had arrived to the area days before the navy. It seemed like they pretty much made tents and sat around waiting for everyone to show up -- with the occasional flurry of arrows being exchanged between them and the city.

As to the chain, I can't say, but the likelihood of the Red Keep holding out for any period longer than minutes is quite low, I would think. Even assuming there were enough Lannister guards there to hold it (and assuming that they didn't flee, and those fighting elsewhere returned,) they might hold if briefly, but it wouldn't take long to scale the moat and bring down the doors, I suspect. That's assuming that no-one on the inside decides to allow them in for any number of reasons. If the city fell the Red Keep would almost certainly fall with it.

[Minstral]

That whole bit about Stannis not having intel or loyal agents in the city is a bit unfair. Varys is the one that has the monopoly on spies in the Seven Kingdoms, so that he charges in blindly is not a surprise if Varys lets slip false information of silences his supporters. Hell, those that were eager for Stannis to come to them were not so eager going over to Stannis when they were flung from the walls.

[Morienthar]

Davos would have done a better job at commanding the Naval forces.

Stannis could have attacked the Blackwater chain during construction.

[sillent]

As to the chain, I can't say, but the likelihood of the Red Keep holding out for any period longer than minutes is quite low, I would think. Even assuming there were enough Lannister guards there to hold it (and assuming that they didn't flee, and those fighting elsewhere returned,) they might hold if briefly, but it wouldn't take long to scale the moat and bring down the doors, I suspect. That's assuming that no-one on the inside decides to allow them in for any number of reasons. If the city fell the Red Keep would almost certainly fall with it.

Fair enough. Other posters pointed it out that Tyrion had sent most of the Lannister men to Riverrun since their loyalty was for both him and Cersei. Good move for Tyrion gaining power, but it did mean that did the city fall the entire city would fall -- as no loyal men were there to stick it out till the end.

If Stannis got hostages he could potentially have kept Tywin in check.. though with Tommen secured I'm not sure Tywin would mind losing collateral if it mean't defeating the enemy amd getting back KL. There's also the possibility that Cersei would have had Ilyn Payne execeute Sansa, herself and Joffrey. Ahh, that would've been quite funny actually haha!

[Master of Laws]

Stannis would've taken King's Landing sooner but there's no way he could hold the city against the approaching Lannister/Tyrell army.

[ab aeterno]

Fair enough. Other posters pointed it out that Tyrion had sent most of the Lannister men to Riverrun since their loyalty was for both him and Cersei. Good move for Tyrion gaining power, but it did mean that did the city fall the entire city would fall -- as no loyal men were there to stick it out till the end.

If Stannis got hostages he could potentially have kept Tywin in check.. though with Tommen secured I'm not sure Tywin would mind losing collateral if it mean't defeating the enemy amd getting back KL. There's also the possibility that Cersei would have had Ilyn Payne execeute Sansa, herself and Joffrey. Ahh, that would've been quite funny actually haha!

The executions are definitely a possibility, yeah. The issue for Tywin isn't so much that he'd care about the hostages, but about the prestige of his house. With Tommen unaccounted for at best, Myrcella with the Dornish who hate the Lannisters, Jaime presumed to be a Stark captive, Tywin can't afford to lose his son, daughter and grandson, even if he would tolerate the potential deaths of Lannisters, which I don't think he would in this manner.

[noSer]

I reread the exact chapter today where Stannis takes Storms End, and I read it a Stannis knew he would never have the troops at Bitterbridge. He says they will follow their true King, but he knows they won't. Look at his actions. He sent the Florents who are not the most respected family around, and have been openly criticizing the Tyrell's as upjumped stewards for generations. Everyone knew that Tarly commanded those troops for Highgarden, and whoever they joined, it wasn't going to be Stannis. If he thought he stood a chance at claiming all of Renly's power he would have gone himself, but he didn't. He would never say so but he knew it wasn't an option.

[E-Ro]

I reread the exact chapter today where Stannis takes Storms End, and I read it a Stannis knew he would never have the troops at Bitterbridge. He says they will follow their true King, but he knows they won't. Look at his actions. He sent the Florents who are not the most respected family around, and have been openly criticizing the Tyrell's as upjumped stewards for generations. Everyone knew that Tarly commanded those troops for Highgarden, and whoever they joined, it wasn't going to be Stannis. If he thought he stood a chance at claiming all of Renly's power he would have gone himself, but he didn't. He would never say so but he knew it wasn't an option.

Nope. If stannis shows up with the cavalry, the infantry is joining him. The cavalry part of the army is the highborn part(read, the lords of the infantry at bitterbridge). The infantry would go over to their lords, with stannis 20k men around randyle and mace are either joining him, or dying. Any battle will heavily favor stannis and most likley lead to him winning.

Furthermore, the tyrell grip on their bannerman is said to be weak, randyle is the type to respect stannis and perhaps go over to him for position and influence he wont ever get from mace.

[sillent]

Nope. If stannis shows up with the cavalry, the infantry is joining him. The cavalry part of the army is the highborn part(read, the lords of the infantry at bitterbridge). The infantry would go over to their lords, with stannis 20k men around randyle and mace are either joining him, or dying. Any battle will heavily favor stannis and most likley lead to him winning.

Furthermore, the tyrell grip on their bannerman is said to be weak, randyle is the type to respect stannis and perhaps go over to him for position and influence he wont ever get from mace.

Pretty glaring mistake for such a seasoned commander no? He passed to grow his army a sizable amount whilst simultaneously getting rid of the Tyrells and potentially getting a really good commander in Randyll to join up with him. All in an attempt to blindly storm the capital just to be in a situation where his city is broken, sacked and starving and the only benefit he has is that he potentially has 3 valuable hostages.

Do you think he might be making similarly poor decisions up in the North by Dance and might this suggest what to expect in the upcoming TWOW.

[The Mountain That Flies]

Do you think he might be making similarly poor decisions up in the North by Dance and might this suggest what to expect in the upcoming TWOW.

No. Just by virtue of having gone to the Mountain Clans to bolster his forces (under Jon's advice), Stannis seems to be learning from his mistakes. He also abadoned his plan to attack the Dreadfort directly (again thanks to Jon) since this wouldn't have produced the results he wanted. If nothing else, Stannis is listening to better quality advisors more now than we was prior to the Blackwater, so I don't see the Battle of Winterfell going the same way.

[E-Ro]

Pretty glaring mistake for such a seasoned commander no? He passed to grow his army a sizable amount whilst simultaneously getting rid of the Tyrells and potentially getting a really good commander in Randyll to join up with him. All in an attempt to blindly storm the capital just to be in a situation where his city is broken, sacked and starving and the only benefit he has is that he potentially has 3 valuable hostages.

Hindsight is 20/20, I give this plan as a reader of the books who knows for a fact that the florents he sends will fail, that a freak storm will slow his advance to kl, and that the tyrells and lannisters will not only be joining up in an alliance but that they will have perfect timing. For what stannis new at the time, his plan was good. Again, I don't think it was that big of a mistake given the circumstances, but going and getting the foot himself instead of sending florents would have been a better move.

[zaphodbrx]

The battle of blackwater was a disastrous defeat for Stannis. Mostly because plot. Stannis is generally better than that.

Here is what he could have done differently.

a) Load troops onto ship. Land North of KL and attack from there. Avoid chain area.

Either Win city, or need to face Lannister army ( Tyrells are stuck on the other side of river ). Also, no wildfire.

B) Destroy chain tower on the south side while waiting for fleet to arrive.

c) Make a better attempt at getting ex-Renly/Reach infantry to join his side. Though we can't really tell how it would have gone, it all depends on LF and his negotiations.

d) Get some better intel. Make use of Antler men inside city, keep track of Tyrell army, smoke out the wildfire trap. What use is that red priestess if she can't see these things in flames.

e) most of all, don't put a retard in charge of your fleet.