Which part of Prince Doran's plan do you realistically see succeeding?

[Newstar]

I think the Martells' narrative might be summed up as, "The women succeed and the men fail."

Yup, Arianne's grand plan went smooth as butter. It is totally known. :D

Honestly, I'll start thinking Trystane's not actually a Martell by blood unless he screws something up spectacularly in the next book.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Yup, Arianne's grand plan went smooth as butter. It is totally known. :D

If you actually bothered to read what I wrote, you'd know I was referring to my prediction for her encounter with Aegon.

[Newstar]

If you actually bothered to read what I wrote, you'd know I was referring to my prediction for her encounter with Aegon.

I had actually bothered to read what you had written (although A++ for the gratuitous cattiness), but it seems like a silly prediction based on what we've seen of the Martells' utter ineptitude, which seems pretty gender-blind from where I stand (Exhibit A: Arianne's grand plan). Would it be nice if the Martell women didn't screw up? Sure. Is it likely? Nope!

I suspect all hell will break loose once Doran, the only other person with any sense of restraint in the family other than Ellaria, dies, leaving a bunch of political morons and revenge-crazed loose cannons in charge.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I had actually bothered to read what you had written, but it seems like a silly prediction based on what we've seen of the Martells' utter ineptitude, which seems pretty gender-blind from where I stand. Would it be nice if the Martell women didn't screw up? Sure. Is it likely? Nope!

We'll see. As far as I'm concerned, for all their failings, the Martells are still smarter than most of the other houses just by having the god-given sense to sit out the War of the Five Kings. I'm actually fairly ambivalent toward them; I just think writing them off en masse is shortsighted and kind of foolish.

[Not Dead Just Broken]

Lady Nym and Tyene are going to cause havoc in KL. I could see Lady Nym killing Tommen. I could see Tyene convincing the High Sparrow to convict Margaery. I think Obara will kill Ser Balon Swann and/or Darkstar. Sarella may play a role in the election of the new Grand Maester. I have faith in the Sand Snakes. Arianne, not so much. Her insistence on not learning anything, ever, can't be good.

Quentyn was a miserable failure, Oberyn, I'm not sure. He killed the Mountain and got a confession. The fact that he died doing it is almost irrelevant. After all, if Oberyn's goal was to raise Dorne in rebellion, his plan almost worked.

In general, the problem isn't Doran's plans, it's his family's habit of running headlong into an early grave.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Quentyn was a miserable failure, Oberyn, I'm not sure. He killed the Mountain and got a confession. The fact that he died doing it is almost irrelevant. After all, if Oberyn's goal was to raise Dorne in rebellion, his plan almost worked.

Yeah I almost get the sense that Oberyn didn't mind going — OK maybe not like that — if it meant he could get his confession and put the hurt to Gregor. I think the Red Viper got the last laugh there and not sure that can really be chalked up as a "failure" in the sense that some people see it as. There are things worse than death, and some things worth dying for, etc.

As for Quentyn, for all the shit he and Doran get, a lot of what went wrong in the initial plan (read: not including the dragontaming adventure) was totally out of their control. I think a lot of people forget that — if Dany hadn't already been engaged when Quentyn showed up, it's not unreasonable to think she might have been more amenable to the offer. It fell through because of bad timing, but again, it was out of their hands for the most part.

[Newstar]

As for Quentyn, for all the shit he and Doran get, a lot of what went wrong in the initial plan (read: not including the dragontaming adventure) was totally out of their control. I think a lot of people forget that — if Dany hadn't already been engaged when Quentyn showed up, it's not unreasonable to think she might have been more amenable to the offer. It fell through because of bad timing, but again, it was out of their hands for the most part.

Well, he came too late. Is that on Dany for agreeing to marry too soon, or on him for not having a more solid plan to get to her sooner? Yeah, setbacks and unexpected craziness happen, but that's why a good planner comes up with contingency plans and such.

To be entirely fair to Quentyn, Barristan reflects that Quentyn might have had an easier time of convincing Dany if he looked more like Gerris Drinkwater and less like, well, "Frog," and that's certainly out of his control as well.

But there are no excuses whatsoever for the dragontaming fiasco. As Saul Goodman said on Breaking Bad not too long ago, "Some people are immune to good advice."

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Well, he came too late. Is that on Dany for agreeing to marry too soon, or on him for not having a more solid plan to get to her sooner? Yeah, setbacks and unexpected craziness happen, but that's why a good planner comes up with contingency plans and such.

To be entirely fair to Quentyn, Barristan reflects that Quentyn might have had an easier time of convincing Dany if he looked more like Gerris Drinkwater and less like, well, "Frog," and that's certainly out of his control as well.

It's not really on anyone. It happens. And I think there is a contingency plan, and it's Aegon.

But there are no excuses whatsoever for the dragontaming fiasco. As Saul Goodman said on Breaking Bad not too long ago, "Some people are immune to good advice."

I do agree with this, that was stupid. But it's also not Doran's fault.

[A Crow Come Over]

Doran is just grass without a Viper now, Dorne is in a for a good sacking I think.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Doran is just grass without a Viper now, Dorne is in a for a good sacking I think.

Rhaenys couldn't do it with a dragon and Daeron couldn't hold it with tens of thousands of men. So I'd love to know who's going to succeed where they failed.

[A Crow Come Over]

Rhaenys couldn't do it with a dragon and Daeron couldn't hold it with tens of thousands of men. So I'd love to know who's going to succeed where they failed.

Nymeria did.

Arienne is most likely sending back DRAGON regardless of what happens which will pull Dorne into the conflict on Aegon's side, wouldn't be too hard for someone to cross the Stepstones or come up the Greenblood and take them unawares.

[Newstar]

It's not really on anyone. It happens. And I think there is a contingency plan, and it's Aegon.

Doran had a backup plan in case Quentyn couldn't get it done, but saying that Quentyn should be let off the hook for arriving too late because he was delayed by factors outside his control seems overly generous. Things always do go wrong, which is why 1) you have a solid plan to start off with and 2) you have solid backup and contingency plans in case your solid plan runs into unforeseen difficulties (as they often do). Quentyn failed on both counts. His ineptitude is even more glaring when there are other characters running around who are able to turn around much more disadvantageous situations and make them work for them.

I do agree with this, that was stupid. But it's also not Doran's fault.

Whether the Martell Meereen catastrophe--dragon flambeeing and all--was all on Quentyn for on the ground planning and execution fail, or all on Doran for top-level planning and strategy fail, either way you slice it, it's 100% Martell fail. Because they suck.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Nymeria did

If I remember correctly, Nymeria married into a native house (the Martells) and they united Dorne together. Not the same as sacking it totally from the outside, which to my knowledge has never been done. Or at the very least, people with far more resources to expend than any faction out there now have failed to do it.

<snip>

Like I said, writing them off en masse is foolish. I think at some point they'll surprise people. But whatever, agree to disagree.

[Newstar]

Like I said, writing them off en masse is foolish. I think at some point they'll surprise people.

Well, usually when we say of an otherwise unimpressive character "I think at some point they'll surprise you," we have something to base it on, but the Martells' track record to date is pretty unimpressive. It's sort of like saying "I think at some point Cersei will surprise you." I mean, sure, it's possible, but based on her ineptitude and dangerous mindset leading her into blunder after blunder, whatever she does to surprise us is highly unlikely going to be something that blows our hair back with its brilliance and savvy.

As for Dorne, you're right that they are one of the few regions to sit out the War of Five Kings. That means it's more likely that some horrible things are going to happen in Dorne and to its ruling family, though, not less.

[A Crow Come Over]

If I remember correctly, Nymeria married into a native house (the Martells) and they united Dorne together. Not the same as sacking it totally from the outside, which to my knowledge has never been done. Or at the very least, people with far more resources to expend than any faction out there now have failed to do it.

Yes, she conquered Dorne after allying herself with House Martell because she brought 10,000 ships with her.

Now were just arguing semantics, fine, they wont be "sacked" pardon my vernacular.

They will be conquered tho, thru blood or marriage.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Well, usually when we say of an otherwise unimpressive character "I think at some point they'll surprise you," we have something to base it on, but the Martells' track record to date is pretty unimpressive.

If you had something to base it on, it's not exactly a surprise now is it? That's ... kind of the opposite of a surprise.

Yes, she conquered Dorne after allying herself with House Martell because she brought 10,000 ships with her.

Now were just arguing semantics, fine, they wont be "sacked" pardon my vernacular.

They will be conquered tho, thru blood or marriage.

Creating an alliance through marriage is not the same as being militarily conquered.

[A Crow Come Over]

Creating an alliance through marriage is not the same as being militarily conquered.

Every time I've been married I felt conquered....

Seriously tho, Dorne will be conquered, defeated, subjugated, acquiesced...choose your own verb.

[Foothill]

So I take it most people believe Arianne is going to, at least attempt, to marry Aegon and become his queen.

My question is...Why would Aegon say yes? Wouldn't Doran want to help his nephew anyways. Not to mention the slight incest between them. I just think it would be more beneficial for Aegon to marry a different daughter of a noble house.

That is the only hiccup is see in that plan. But who knows.

[Newstar]

If you had something to base it on, it's not exactly a surprise now is it? That's ... kind of the opposite of a surprise.

Yes, you tell others "I think X is going to surprise you," because you've seen in X's behaviour potential, glimmers of intelligence, what have you, even if others write them off as inept, foolish, etc. If there's nothing there that even you can discern, you can still tell others "I think X is going to surprise you," but it's going to sound like nonsense, as talking up the Martells' potential for greatness sounds to readers who've watched them blunder from one catastrophe to another over the past few books.

My question is...Why would Aegon say yes?

Any number of things:

1. Arianne decides she wants him (remember her dreamily thinking her hypothetical kids with Darkstar would be as beautiful as dragonlords?) and leverages her considerable charms in a sheltered teenager's direction.

2. Aegon likes the idea of, I guess you would put it, having the upper hand in his marriage (the idea of "marrying down" to a Dornish princess on his own terms might be more appealing than "marrying up" to a conqueror queen with dragons and begging her for favours).

3. Aegon, like a lot of teenagers, wants immediate gratification (marriage and an alliance in hand), rather than waiting around for Dany.

4. Aegon hears of Dany's disappearance from Meereen--not sure of the timeline here--and writes her off as dead.

I think the seductive idea of taking the throne himself and striking while the iron is hot, rather than waiting around for a woman who might not want to marry him and might even be dead for all he knows, will be too powerful to resist. Arianne will probably have misgivings about whether Aegon's the real deal, but assuming Aegon's as hot as Tyrion seemed to indicate, she might let the possibility of being Aegon's queen trump all good sense and shove her misgivings aside. Doran Martell, we're reminded in ADWD, followed his heart over his head when he married. I could see Arianne doing the same thing, and it going even worse than Doran's marriage did.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Yes, you tell others "I think X is going to surprise you," because you've seen in X's behaviour potential, glimmers of intelligence, what have you, even if others write them off as inept, foolish, etc. If there's nothing there that even you can discern, you can still tell others "I think X is going to surprise you," but it's going to sound like nonsense, as talking up the Martells' potential for greatness sounds to readers who've watched them blunder from one catastrophe to another over the past few books.

Which means that if they do something impressive, it will be ... wait for it ... a surprise. Which is the word I used.