Which part of Prince Doran's plan do you realistically see succeeding?

[I S**t Gold]

Well I can't say it hasn't, but medically speaking, the only thing you might get from untreated gout is worse gout, and gout isn't treatable today. It can come and go. Also if you take a modern day equivalent, many people in wheelchairs live full lives without getting a weak heart. Many people do no exercise whatsoever and do not have a weak heart.

I'm getting so pro Doran I've just started a new topic so it doesn't derail this thread, so long in fact that if it doesn't get topic approval I'll cry because I forgot to save it. However I strongly believe that creating the appearance that he is weak is a crucial part of his strategy. The way he talks, the way he thinks, he doesn't give me the impression of someone who is dosed up on milk of the poppy. It is possible his health has deteriorated. We have no evidence for that. My feeling is that he exaggerates the extent of his ailment and doesn't take the milk of the poppy for it, or at least only does it on rare occasions. We have no evidence for that either of course.

[aryagonnakill]

I have to disagree and say that anyone who go's years without exercising, or sitting in a wheelchair has a very weak heart.

[I S**t Gold]

Point being we don't know he's gone years without getting out of his chair or exercising. He has gout but there's no reason he can't stand. When Doran's away in his quarters, where he spends a lot of his time, he could be doing constant press ups for all we know.

[aryagonnakill]

Hotah's POV's, I believe spell out the complete opposite. I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

[LovinRC]

I think Doran is a true player. He lost his sister and brother to the Lannister's. He has sent his daughter to Aegon, fake or not, and his son to Danyers. Covering all bases. Does not want to be overt in his rebellion to King's Landing, but sent 2 of the sand snakes thers. He is putting someone in play everywhere.

I can see Manderly and Doran doing the same thing without each other knowing about it. They have people in play to thwart plans of the people that think they are the players. Manderly has Davos, and he is inside the Bolton stronghold. Doran is setting up players in KL. I love it.

[mrlukeduke]

What I love about the Dornish struggle is how convenient it makes Young Griff's reappearance at this very moment. Even the Dornish are wary of Aegon's legitimacy, and rightfully so. Whether Aegon's genuine, a total plant, or a Blackfyre substitute though, it really is spectacular timing (thanks, Tyrion?!), with all those Dornish spears so close to the capital poised ready to strike.

It makes me wonder how much longer Varys and Illyrio would have delayed. I wonder if they knew, or suspected, that Tyrion might push Young Griff into action, being that Tyrion wants to get home – or at least away from his current predicament.

[John Reynolds]

I almost suspect we'll see a sudden shift in Doran's patience for the long game that he's played over the last 17 years once he learns of his son's death. I think Dorne will finally enter the war and, along with the Golden Company, deal the Tyrells are serious defeat on the battlefield once the King's Landing trials are over and Mace comes plodding southward to besiege Storm's End yet again, unsuspecting of the 60k army w/elephants lying in wait. The sad thing is that Doran will be backing a mummer's dragon.

[Ser Tahu]

I almost suspect we'll see a sudden shift in Doran's patience for the long game that he's played over the last 17 years once he learns of his son's death. I think Dorne will finally enter the war and, along with the Golden Company, deal the Tyrells are serious defeat on the battlefield once the King's Landing trials are over and Mace comes plodding southward to besiege Storm's End yet again, unsuspecting of the 60k army w/elephants lying in wait. The sad thing is that Doran will be backing a mummer's dragon.

Replace Tyrells with Lannisters, and them riding south with Aegon riding North to besiege King's Landing and then I agree. I think that Margaery will lose her trial (and her head), and Mace will be informed (by Varys) that Cersei set up the charges causing him to defect to Aegon's side.

[I am of the Night]

cousins still marry in the arab countries

Cousins continue to marry worldwide. It's only modern western culture that has made marring first cousins taboo.

As for the OP, Martells are full of fail. They may have some early military success, but it will all come crashing down. They waited too long.

[aryagonnakill]

Cousins continue to marry worldwide. It's only modern western culture that has made marring first cousins taboo.

As for the OP, Martells are full of fail. They may have some early military success, but it will all come crashing down. They waited too long.

Well if its not happening in the west then it obviously isn't worldwide. I also think theres more to it than just a taboo, genetics can get dicey when you limit the gene pool. There was recently (semi-recently) a discovery of some people in I believe it was kentucky where they had blue skin due to blood problems which resulted from a narrowing of the gene pool due to interbreeding of cousins.

[I am of the Night]

Well if its not happening in the west then it obviously isn't worldwide. I also think theres more to it than just a taboo, genetics can get dicey when you limit the gene pool. There was recently (semi-recently) a discovery of some people in I believe it was kentucky where they had blue skin due to blood problems which resulted from a narrowing of the gene pool due to interbreeding of cousins.

In your own post you show how it is still happening in the west...

[aryagonnakill]

In my own post I talk about something that occurred in the 1800's and a trait that has persisted in some members of that family even today.

[I am of the Night]

Regardless, it's still happening today. It's taboo, not forbidden or illegal.

[Farainen]

Hi this is my first post. I've been following the forum for a while but I couldn't spend another day without sharing this brilliant theory on Doran Martell that I find simply quite compelling. I will try to give a summary of this guy's theory, but I encourage you to read it in more details here http://branvras.free.fr/HuisClos/Princes.html. I will try to add some ideas of my own as welI. I honestly don't know if someone else has had the same ideas, and I'd be curious to see your feedback.

At first, when we are introduced to Doran Martell, it is through the eyes of Arianne, and we are led to believe that he's a weak old impotent coward. Then there's that strong statement by Tywin Lannister himself where he expresses in an unequivocal manner his respect, even fear of Doran Martell. Events unfold untill we finally learn that Doran is a long term player, obsessed with vengeance, who can wait years to make the right move. Then GRRM himself said:

Doran plays to win, whether at cyvasse, or the game of thrones.

In other words, Doran Martell means business, he's the real deal. Good.

Then how could you explain the utter disaster that is Quentin's mission? It is in total opposition with what are led to believe about Doran. It's a mission that was doomed from the go, however, it has one benefit, it shows us that Doran has always something up his sleeve and that he always sees the big picture. But why was this mission such a disaster?

1. There's a pattern in ASOIF that we must all be made aware of: every time a character has a plan of which we (the readers) are made aware of, it is doomed. Ex: Ned's plan to overthrow the Lannisters; Robb's plan to retake the North; Jaime and Brienne's plan to find Sansa, Stannis' plan to take KL; Jon's plan to save the wildlings and to take WF; Tyrion's plan to join Dany; Viserys plan to use the Dothraki army; and finally Quentin's plan to marry Dany. On the other hand, all the major twists that occured were shemes that we were not made aware of: Littlefinger's betrayal of Ned, the Red Wedding, Varys' schemes at the end of ADWD; Stannis saving the Wall...

2. If Doran Martell is half as clever as we are led to believe, then how come he didn't guess that Quentin completely lacked the necessary intellectual skill to carry out such a difficult mission? Doran is described as being a great judge of character, how could he not see that Quentin, though not lacking in valor, is not fit for this task. Even Selmy noticed that Quentin's companions were "better" than him.

3.Doran is described as the cautious man par excellence. Compare his attitude towards Arianne when he sends her to find out the truth about Ageon, always insisting on her discretion, and the absence of any discretion during Quentin's trip to Essos. Quentin was recognized in Volantis, and Arianne knew he was sent to Dany, and she couln't help but wonder why he travelled from Planky town instead of Odltown, which woud have been more discreet.

Conclusion : Doran is a smart guy, therefore he knew he was sending Quentin to his death. The natural question is: why would he sacrifice his own son?

In order to answer this question, let's go back to Doran's past. Before Robert's Rebellion, Doran had a trip to Essos. He visited Volantis on his way to Norvos where he fell in love and married Mellario of Norvos. They had Arianne, then, Quentin. At a young age, Quentin was sent to be fostered by the Yronwoods, the second most powerful family in Dorn. This was the result of a fight that occured between the Red Viper and Lord Edgar Yronwood after Oberyn was found in bed with Edgar's paramour. The duel was supposed to end after first blood, and it did after both fighters were injured, but days later Lord Edgar died, propably poisened by the Red Viper's blade. In order to calm the Yronwoods, Doran offered them his heir to foster. As a result, his wife, Mellario, was furious and decided to leave him and her children and go back to Norvos where she's been staying for over 16 years. This is very weird.

We are told that she left because she didn't want to be seperated from her son, and yet, instead of staying in Sunspear where she could have visited him once or twice a year, she went across the Narrow Sea to never see her beloved son again? This does not make any sense at all.

Hypothesis: The reason why Doran is so careless with the fate of Quentin, and the reason his wife is in Norvos, is because Quentin is not Doran's son, the real son of Doran is in Norvos with his mother. Doran switched the kids (remember how water gardens is full of kids).

So yeah, Doran is badass.

Please I wanna insist that what I'm sharing here is someone else's brilliant work that you can find in the link above. I'm merely reporting this theory because i couldn't find it here and I believe it is worth sharing.

[Veltigar]

snip

Everyone is free to believe what he wants I guess.

Edit: Because one should never write a post without being focused on the actual wording.

[Iona]

Everyone is free to believe what I want I guess.

Don't you think that's a bit rude welcome to an eager newcomer!

I could like the Bran Vras -theory on Doran quoted above, but all this babyswapping is making my head hurt. If Doran actually sent a fake kid to foster with the Yronwoods, I bet Anders would go apeshit on him, not to mention all the other people that had loved-ones with Quentin on his journey. Sending someone on a mission that is pre-estimated to result in his death, be it his own blood or not, is just not a great PR move from Doran... :(

[Farainen]

Don't you think that's a bit rude welcome to an eager newcomer!

I could like the Bran Vras -theory on Doran quoted above, but all this babyswapping is making my head hurt. If Doran actually sent a fake kid to foster with the Yronwoods, I bet Anders would go apeshit on him, not to mention all the other people that had loved-ones with Quentin on his journey. Sending someone on a mission that is pre-estimated to result in his death, be it his own blood or not, is just not a great PR move from Doran... :(

I'm sorry I honestly didn't know the name of the author of that theory, let alone that he was a member of the forum. It is not mentionned anywhere in his analysis (the winterfell huit clos) which it took me days to read, and which I find amazing. I've clrearly stated that the ideas are not mine and mentionned the link, I merely attempted to sum them up.

[Veltigar]

Don't you think that's a bit rude welcome to an eager newcomer!

I could like the Bran Vras -theory on Doran quoted above, but all this babyswapping is making my head hurt. If Doran actually sent a fake kid to foster with the Yronwoods, I bet Anders would go apeshit on him, not to mention all the other people that had loved-ones with Quentin on his journey. Sending someone on a mission that is pre-estimated to result in his death, be it his own blood or not, is just not a great PR move from Doran... :(

Oops, I wanted to say everyone is free to believe what he wants. I'll edit.

[John Reynolds]

I think the long gaps between books gives people too much time. How does Quentyn being switched further the narrative? A father can easily be blind to his own child's shortcomings, and while Doran has been patient he's also clearly made mistakes (cough, letting Oberyn go to King's Landing, cough). So this theory is just much ado about nothing.

As for the Lannisters leading an army south from King's Landing, the last we heard about their power was from Kevan during Dance's epilogue, which detailed that their forces were fast melting away (feudal bannermen going home) in the Riverlands. The only real army around King's Landing that supports the Iron Throne is the Tyrell one. And I highly doubt Mace is going to go over to Aegon's camp. Even his own mother would poison him for such stupidity. :P

[mrlukeduke]

I'm sorry I honestly didn't know the name of the author of that theory, let alone that he was a member of the forum. It is not mentionned anywhere in his analysis (the winterfell huit clos) which it took me days to read, and which I find amazing. I've clrearly stated that the ideas are not mine and mentionned the link, I merely attempted to sum them up.

That is Bran Vras, and he has done some superb analysis of A Song of Ice and Fire, particularly his Winterfell Huis Clois, which is top notch. He's well known on this forum generally, although I actually haven't read that particular analysis, so thanks for the linkypoo!