Which part of Prince Doran's plan do you realistically see succeeding?

[MeMike]

I think Ellia Sand is being sent with Arriane (plot wise) so that Ellia and Aegon can fall in love, Ellia can be the 2x Queen Ellia of the Martells, etc. This might not sit well with Arriane / Doran, as they seem to have more Dorne-centric plans, and might not believe Aegon is real. Also Arianne might be jealous.

I wonder if there might be some inter-Dorne dispute with some supporting Myrcella (backed by Arrianne and her peoples) and Ellia Sand supported by the sand snakes / Aegon / etc.

I dunno. One way or another I think Dorne is going to screw up its awesome position. They could go all-in behind Myrcella, Aegon, or Dany, and basically be golden, but if they don't pick decisively, it will come back to bite them.

[The Iron Suitor]

A few things, First Quentyn was Dorans backup plan. Arianne and Viserys were plan A. Secondly, we just don't know enough about Doran's plan to fully understand if he has failed. Maybe he was partially behind Joffrey's death, which ultimately led to the confession and death of Gregor, the death of Tywin, and the exiling of Tyrion. Quentyns death was in no part his fault and Oberyn new the risk and he was satisfied with the reward. I think Doran would take the pros vs cons in the outcome of his plan. Everyone he believed to be part of the incident is now dead: Robert, Tywin, Gregor, Amory Lorch, and additionally Jaime is crippled, Tyrion exiled, Cersei crazed, Joffrey dead, Kevan, and Pycelle dead. On top of that he has kept his name completely out of it and retains some power in KL with the sand snakes.

[Colonel Green]

Maybe he was partially behind Joffrey's death, which ultimately led to the confession and death of Gregor, the death of Tywin, and the exiling of Tyrion. Quentyns death was in no part his fault and Oberyn new the risk and he was satisfied with the reward.

And maybe he pushed Bran from the tower!

[I S**t Gold]

Agreed. I think Darkstar's the one who told Doran about Arianne's plot and Doran probably told him to use the confusion to kill Myrcella. He needed a way of separating his daughter from her friends. With the Red Viper dead, he needed someone to play the mad man. Darkstar's reputation fits perfectly. Wouldn't surprise me if Areo Hotah or Obara does in Balon Swann. Darkstar's might be in Essos by now.

Arianne, on the other hand, is a terrible Cyvasse player.

The idea of using Darkstar as the rat is inspired and we're thinking along the same lines. Means Arianne will never again be able to trust any of her allies again which blunts her ability to conspire against Doran. He's removed her ability to jeopardise his plans in one fell swoop.

I'm not sure Doran ordered Myrcella's death just because the most dangerous man in Dorne had a free shot at a little girl so I feel like if she was supposed to be dead, she'd be dead. Once Darkstar does that he becomes the only one of Arianne's little conspiracy that she will never, ever doubt was on her side (except for Arys obviously).

The maiming also might be interpreted as a political statement of course, in that it essentially raises the banners of Dorne against the Iron Throne and makes conflict inevitable, but I believe Doran was using this to sort out problems in their own house.

That's a guy who's in the game of thrones to win. Arianne's plan seemed quite discreet and well thought out. It's really impressive to me that he snuffed out that plan in it's infancy and brought her onside so effectively.

Arianne isn't a cyvasse player at all, she's one of the pieces, one of the lesser ones at that. I don't think Doran has moved his dragons yet and I have a feeling that Darkstar is close at hand just in case Doran needs him.

[Queen Arya]

I see two parts of Doran's plan succeeding: Dany will invade Westeros, and House Lannister will be defeated. But neither will be achieved in the way that he wants or expects.

As for Arianne... I agree that she'll marry Aegon, but I think there's very little chance of her surviving the dance of the dragons.

Both sample chapters of hers were really heavy with death foreshadowing IMO. Obviously for the second chapter we're just relying on notes, but here's what the reporter said:

Source

(As a sidenote, in that livejournal report it says that GRRM considered splitting the second Arianne chapter in half and putting the battle for Storm's End in the middle. Considering that some of the details about this Arianne chapter seem to be covered in the Arianne gift chapter, I'm guessing that's what he eventually decided to do.)

:agree:

i love doran but i believe that in the end,things wont work out very well for the martells (i agree with whomever said that trystane is the Martell's rickon)

but i think the martells may fullfill their revenge against the Lannisters in the sense that one of the sand snakes kills tommen and then they crown myrcella (she is not dead; if/when she dies we will see it - the fullfillment of maggy's prophecy for cersei wont happen off screen)

but in the end, i think arianne might be their downfall.... her weakness is handsome men...i think she will be blinded by aegon's handsome face and the power he has to actually win the IR and will marry him without doran's approval.

they win the IR but when dany arrives, they are screwed.

and i believe doran will probably have to decide between helping his daughter or saving dorne (alligning with dany and her dragons).

* sorry for my english.

[PatrickStormborn]

and i believe doran will probably have to decide between helping his daughter or saving dorne (alligning with dany and her dragons).

Very good point, particularly as - unlike during Aegon I's conquest - the Dornish armies are probably going to leave Dorne. Arianne notes in the Gift chapter that:

In the Boneway and the Prince’s Pass, two Dornish hosts had massed, and there they sat, sharpening their spears, polishing their armor, dicing, drinking, quarreling, their numbers dwindling by the day, waiting, waiting, waiting for the Prince of Dorne to loose them on the enemies of House Martell. Waiting for the dragons. For fire and blood. For me. One word from Arianne and those armies would march… so long as that word was dragon. If instead the word she sent was war, Lord Yronwood and Lord Fowler and their armies would remain in place. The Prince of Dorne was nothing if not subtle; here war meant wait.

1. The Dornish army plans to leave Dorne to fight "the enemies of House Martell".
   
2. But "their numbers [are] dwindling by the day". It's interesting - and crucial - that Arianne picks up on this. She sounds anxious and impatient. The repetition of "waiting" reinforces this. She appears to feel the same frustration and impatience that the Dornish hosts are feeling, which points towards her sending the word "dragon".
   

With the Dornish armies leaving Dorne, its castles and keeps will be relatively undefended... and I think that's what Dorne's eventual downfall will be.

However, I'm not too sure that Doran will still be alive at this point. But I agree that someone will have to decide between saving Arianne/the war/the Dornish armies, or saving Dorne itself.

[hrafna]

I think the martells are going to end up in a good place by the series end. I believe they will end up on dany's side, despite their stupid little prince catching a sudden case of dragon breath!

[Steve Moss II]

I think the Martells (i.e. Doran) plan too much and don't do enough. Plans are great, but they have to be followed up by action.

If vengeance was the objective, then I think his best chance of getting it against the Lannisters was supporting Stannis and Robb, at least short term. No need to bend the knee, but taking out the Lannisters was doable.

I think Doran's problem is that he wants vengeance without consequence. He's concerned about the children in his Water Garden (laudable) but it has resulted in him seeking the sure-fire plan, which doesn't exist. IMO, he needs to decide on whether he wants peace or war and act accordingly.

[lmgross25]

Dorne gains nothing from marrying Adrianna to Aegon. Aegon is the son of Elia as much as he is Rhagher's son and they are bounded to him by blood. It makes more sense for the mantels to use Marcella as a pawn and have her marry Aegon. With both of there paternity's in question if the time ever comes when the mantels need to get out of league with Aegon they have not only two pretenders to the throne. As of right now the small council knows that Cersi was in talks with Mantell to have Marcella come back to KL. But as Ser Kevin said in the Epilogue he didn't bother to tell them that lady nam was coming to sit on the small council and that she was bringing Marcella. If things go the way that I think they will go with faith trying Margerty Tyrell and she will be found not guilty and so will Cersi and if Tyrell has the sense that the gods gave a goose then he can easily have tommen declare that Cersi is not longer in power and make her a mere figure head, the same thing that she did to eddard only she gets to keep her head. Also declare that Jamie is stripped of command of the Kingsguard and bound for the wall, so now tommen in isloatoed and in complete control of the king and the kingdom. Now if Lady Nam is smart she will see that the real power in the reach is Tarly so she would need to come up with terms that will get him the changes sides like maybe being given Highgarden and a contunied seat on the council, maybe marrying the one of his daughters to tommen, I say this because they need to get the high lords and ladies in one place and pick in choose which of them they want to keep in power and those that they want to displace for they lands, incomes and titles. Also if Tyne is smart she will be whispering in the ear of the high septon about what a great guy this Aegon is and that his is the rightful ruler of the 7kingdoms. With Jon worshipping the old gods and dany being strengthen by the red gods. Aegon who has being learning about the faith for as long as he can rememeber and as the septon in question is tyene's mother, well that all the better. IF the mantels play this right they might be able to put Aegon on the throne without to much bloodshed.

[matthias]

I do think Doran is a master mind and will be the downfall of house Lannister. I'm willing to go so far as to say Doran organized the arrests of Cercei and Margery thought it's only Cercei's blood he's after. In a sec I will explain why. First I want to make a quick command to the expectations posted above. I think there really great but two small things I would never see happen. Firstly Cercei abandoning her son. Cercei is a capable of doing horrible things but that's only because she loves here children so much. She would rather die then leaving the corpse of her son behind. Secondly Doran would never execute the princess. He loves children and wouldn't reflect the horrors that happened to Rheagar's children to anyone.

First: Wich house would like to see house Lannister fall (and isn't defeated like the Starks)? Martell, Aryn and house Greyjoy. Unfortunately though, house Greyjoy doesn't believe in the seven and can there for (probably) not offer the faith a champion.

Secondly: After the red viper's death GRRM has written a lot about the Martels and shown us several Martel POV characters and until now there has not been a real reason yet to have Areo Hota as a POV because Ariana was pretty much around all the time. Through both POV though we've been told repeatedly that Doran Martel is a cautious yet dangerous men ''a real player of the GOT'' if you will. Though the only plan we've seen of him is to marry one of his children to one of the Targaryans. And let's face it, you don't have to be a genius to come up with that plan. We've also seen Areo Hota's loyalty towards Doran ''it is for my prince to command for Hotah to obey''.

So in the last chapter of the Martels in ''a dance with dragons'' we see Balon Swann visiting the Martels and he tried to lure young Trystan to kings landing to assassinate him. We learn however that Doran Martel has been warned. Afterwarts he sends one of the sandsnakes to Kingslanding. But why would he do that when he already has a confident there? And more importantly who is this confident? Might it be Varys or is it someone of the faith? Or might it be Doran who is the mastermind beyond Cercei's capture and trial by the fight? It seems to me that's the kind of plot Doran Martel might be able to play out, it also makes the role of the Martels much more important, suprising and even cooler then now.

Now in the spoiler chapter we learn from Ariana that Hotah was looking for the Darkstar with Balon and one of the sandsnake. Now why the hell would Doran do that? It seems a great way to get rid of the red headed sand snake but why would you dissmiss the captain of you personal guard when you can also sent ten extra soldiers with the sandsnake? It seems to me Doran is playing one trick on the sandsnakes so he can play out an other. Areoh Hota is one men, a very strong one, but not stronger then ten soldiers so the best use of a man like Hotah is to use him in one to one combats like trials. I know what you're thinking Hotah doesn't stand a change against the mountain but you might be wrong about that. Hotah is not as famous as the the mountain and the hound and such but he's famous in Dorn and he's also kind of refered to as the greatest warrior of Dorn ''no man stands a chance against Hotah'' where Ariana's words and let's not forget that it is often said that Hotah fights with a six foot long axe which might just be the thing he needs agains the mountain.

[lmgross25]

I never said that cersi would be leaving the red keep Tyrell would be an idiot to let cersi out of Kings Landing. Nor do I think that Doran will be involved in the murder of either Lannister Childern. You forget the sansa is the key to everything north of kingslanding she has blood claims the the trident, vale and north. With cersi out of a position of power and the Tyrell's owing littlefinger can bring sansa back to kings landing and with an act of the council of faith have the marriage declared invaliad. It was common knowledge that Tyrion never touched her and a marriage not consummated can be put aside and with Tyrion not being there and also because he's a traitor, why not let sansa out of those vows. now here is where it gets sticky, for Littlefinger to get the really type of power that he has always craved, not only doesn't he need sansa testimony that the Tyrells are responsible for good king Joffey's murder and with the things that have already been said about Margerty then there is a chance that's how she looses her head. What is littlefinger always saying "clean hands" This brings about a power vacuum that if the Mantells are smarth they can exploit. Lastly I agree he wont condone the murder of children but if Aegon is married to Marcella like I think is going to happen with the lannisters being a spent force there is no reason for him to continue with being yoked with Marcella so on the same grounds that Aegon will problaly give for getting rid of Marcella is the fact she is a bastard and here comes Varys with little Tyrek to give testimony that Cersi plotted to kill Robert and also maybe a Barthon bastard to prove the point. In true Targeranyn fashion once he is done with Marcella and more that likely wants to marry Sansa. Remember littlefinger spoke of the THREE QUEENS Sansa, Queen of the north and trident, Marcella Queen to the Iron Throne and Margerty. I do agree that darkstar is probably become ageon's kingguard

[joachim]

"The three queens" pretty obviously included Cersei.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

"The three queens" pretty obviously included Cersei.

I agree. Littlefinger probably meant Sansa as one more, and the last one as Margaery. He hasn't accounted for Dany yet though.

[alienarea]

None.

[lmgross25]

Ser kevan said it himself in silks and satins cersi was a queen the closes thing the commoners had to a goddess but stripped naked with her goods shown to the world, she is nothing more than a woman. She could never hope to rule again. Cersi's power is done. If Tyrell is smart as soon as he is informed of Kevan's death, he needs to take into custody the King. Have documents drawn up that state that name him Hand and lord Protector and His wife (if she survives) his regent, (using cersi's claim to power as precedent, she's 16 she can rule in her own right, she's a woman. not a child), Stripping Jamie Lannister of doing the realm great harm when he slew Avery's and to answer for his crimes sends for Lannister and Tyrell guards out to claim him and send him to the wall along with the Kettlebacks. Then name Loras to Lord commander of the kingsguard(even if he is as damaged as they say they can't dissmiss him from the kingsguard on the grounds of being a cripple. But I don't think there is anything wrong with him, I think the tell that he is wounded was used to force Cersi to act against the family. All this can be done simply by having the council, and king sign the documents. I one stroke he has removed all lannister power from around the king, and taken the kingdom in hand. most of the council members will beholden to Highgarden plus the citadel has to hold a conclave to elect a new grand arch to the council. The only two outsiders will be Lady Nam and possible who ever replaces pycell. Cersi overplayed her hand and will be lucky to keep her head. Don't you think it would be worse for her as a mother to see you children so close to death and can do nothing to stop it. Tyrion's curse will keep coming true, one day when you think yourself happy and safe, I will turn all your dreams to ash in your mouth. Tyrion didn't have anything to do with Joff death and Cersi thought that things were going to work out but all she could do was stand by while her first born is poisoned. Then she will think herself safe after the mounatin wins her trial by combat only to come back to the castle to find that she is guest were she use to be misstress. Once again for those thoughts to turn to ash in her mouth. Cersi is done don't get me wrong she might make some trouble but her days as being Queen are over.

[Abyssalix]

I think Sarella is on her own, or at least that's what Doran says, that's she's playing her own game in Oldtown

It wouldn't be incest, they are cousins and that's normal in the 7K

Winds of Winter spoiler ahead:

in the Arianne gift chapter, Jon Connington sent Doran a letter telling him all about him and Aegon, so Doran send Arianne to the Stormlands to meet them

ETA: I can't believe the first time I used the multiquote button was for a thread about the Martells, who I hate :dunno:

cousins still marry in the arab countries

[DaarioBigalowTyroshiGigolo]

As much as I enjoy Doran's patience and cunning I don't think he'll be around long enough to enjoy the complete fall of House Lannister. I've pretty much decided he's not long for this world given his health (granted I'm speculating) and I think him being alive is the only thing holding his plans together. Thus I think House Martell will be divided when both Targaryens finally descend upon Westeros.

[I S**t Gold]

Basically though, the only thing wrong with Doran is gout. Now that's very painful but it's basically acute arthritis. The only drawbacks are that he has to stay off his feet, and it makes him look weak. I think he wants to look weak though...

[aryagonnakill]

His gout, being essentially untreated, has probably caused other things to happen to his body as well. His inactivity alone over years would lead to heart problems among other things. Continual use of milk of the poppy cannot be good for you either.

[aryagonnakill]

Dorans gout has been left untreated for years, and during this time he has barely moved on his own. I think he now probably has multiple problems, at the very least he would have a very weak heart, and constantly taking milk of the poppy can't be good for your organs. sorry for the double post, I did not originally see the first one come up.