Would Varys support Jon Snow?

[Welease Woger]

Why do you presume Illyrio to follow R'hllor? Because there was a Red Priest? That's no clue, that's just a proof that Illyrio doesn't openly works aganst them. He seems to be rather atheistic, or maybe secular, by the way.

In Daenerys' very first chapter, you will see Illyrio saluting her with the "blesses of the Lord of Light". I think there's another reference to him too. Okay, that doesn't mean that he might be a religious fanatic, he could be pretty secular and still use empty religious salutes, even atheist. But I think that reference is probably not random, the faith on R'hllor is very important to the plot, so I guess that if Illyrio is even moderately religious, that must be important.

2. ...I also think that Varys is actually the one behind Jon's assassination: it seems to coincide with Aegon's landing in the South and Varys own revealing move of killing Kevan.

Don't forget that Cersei had already plotted Jon's assassination back in aFFC.

[Lazy Lion]

There is one person left alive that would have known if Jon was Rhaegar's true born son: Howland Reed. I doubt Varys has any little Crannogmen birds. When you consider how small the circle of people was that knew what was going on, it's not hard to fathom Varys didn't know.

Except that it was Varys' job to know what was going on. The wedding must have been officiated over, and I doubt Rhaegar would just murder some septon to make sure he didn't blab about the Prince's secret second wife.

But more importantly, it doesn't matter if Rhaegar and Lyanna were married. You say only Howland Reed knows about it...but who's going to care what Reed says?

Can you imagine the High Septon (any of them, not just the current one) ever saying "This guy says that Rhaegar married Lyanna Stark, and this boy is their trueborn son...so Hail the new King!"?

How about the Lannisters? The Tyrells? Stannis Baratheon? Dany? How about the people of Westeros? "This random northern bastard is Rhaegar Targaryen's trueborn son! We know because...some guy says so!"

Jon is only trueborn if Rhaegar and Lyanna married. But Jon being trueborn only matters if everyone knows that Rhaegar and Lyanna married. And Howland Reed will never convince anyone of importance south of the Neck.

TL;DR: I don't think Rhaegar and Lyanna were married in secret. But it doesn't matter, because even if they were, nobody knows about it and few will ever be convinced.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

1. I think that Varys knows 'R+L=J' through a letter Ned Stark gave him to send to Jon before his execution (cf. aGoT), but Varys kept it, as he said he would if he deemed it not serving his own game - the fact that both the show and the novel spend a whole chapter /scene on their meeting in KL dungeons is my sole clue though...

That letter was never written though.

Don't forget that Cersei had already plotted Jon's assassination back in aFFC.

That plot fell flat on it's face when the High Sparrow got involved. Kettleblack won't murder Jon from a cell in Baelor's sept.

Except that it was Varys' job to know what was going on. The wedding must have been officiated over, and I doubt Rhaegar would just murder some septon to make sure he didn't blab about the Prince's secret second wife.

But more importantly, it doesn't matter if Rhaegar and Lyanna were married. You say only Howland Reed knows about it...but who's going to care what Reed says?

Who cares? Nobody at all either way.That marriage will have personal effects for Jon and the other Starks, maybe Aegon, Dany, JonCon and Jaime, but no political effects at all.

[Berkilak]

I have to agree with you there, Lion. R+L=J may just be the most trumped up fan theory in modern history - even if it proves true in the books, it is very possible that it's entirely inconsequential (aside from personal revelation), trueborn or not.

[Lazy Lion]

I have to agree with you there, Lion. R+L=J may just be the most trumped up fan theory in modern history - even if it proves true in the books, it is very possible that it's entirely inconsequential (aside from personal revelation), trueborn or not.

I think R+L=J, but I tend to agree with Bright Blue Eyes above that the effects will be personal, rather than political. It only matters to Jon (now that Cat is UnCat, she won't likely care one way or the other) that he's their child.

I don't think that Rhaegar and Lyanna married in secret, partly because such a revelation would be entirely useless from a literary standpoint. Jon will be so staggered by the revelation of his true parents that the question of whether or not they were legally married will become ludicrously trivial.

Finally, I think Varys the Spider, Master of Whisperers, controller of his flock of little birds, most accomplished intelligence officer in Planetos, is unlikely to have thought "Hmm...Rhaegar has taken Lyanna Stark down to the Dornish Marches. I should probably not investigate this in any way, since there's absolutely no chance anything politically significant is taking place down there."

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Finally, I think Varys the Spider, Master of Whisperers, controller of his flock of little birds, most accomplished intelligence officer in Planetos, is unlikely to have thought "Hmm...Rhaegar has taken Lyanna Stark down to the Dornish Marches. I should probably not investigate this in any way, since there's absolutely no chance anything politically significant is taking place down there."

Varys isn't the NSA. It's an unfortunate trend in the forums to treat Varys and Littlefinger as if they were omniscient. There is only so much that can be done with the given technology and a set budget.

While Varys was certainly interested in investigating that. Rhaegar tried to disappear, had a very limited staff at the ToJ, and Ned covered up the tracks as well as leaving a dozen false tracks concerning Jon Snow.

It is not impossible that Varys' investigation was successful, just very unlikely. And since there is no hint at all that Varys knows, it probably was unsuccessful.

By the way, there need not be anyone to have presided over Rhaegar and Lyanna's wedding. A bride, a groom, a cloak, a tree and a witness would have been enough and neither the cloak, nor the tree*, nor Ser Arthur Dayne would have talked.

*except to Bloodraven and in a rewind for Bran

[Welease Woger]

Well, Varys definitely must know that three knights of the Kingsguard were killed in the Tower of Joy, and he definitely must have asked himself what were they doing there. And it's no secret that Ned found his sister dying there. I don't think it's unlikely that Varys could have deduced that they could have had a baby. Maybe he doesn't know that this baby is Jon Snow.

Or maybe he knows. But there is no way for us to know that he knows, since he is not a POV character and the only conversation that he has in which it could have slipped from his mouth was the one that Arya eavesdropped.

[Jô Maltese]

That letter was never written though.

We don't know, the chapter ends before the end of their talk (and Ned's accepting to 'plead guilty').

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

If Aegon is killed & the rest of his plan turn to cow flop...maybe.

[Jon Reborn]

There is one person left alive that would have known if Jon was Rhaegar's true born son: Howland Reed. I doubt Varys has any little Crannogmen birds. When you consider how small the circle of people was that knew what was going on, it's not hard to fathom Varys didn't know.

I believe that Barristan Selmy may also know about Jon. See below, from Jon's first chapter in A Clash of Kings (bolder part mine):

Outside the armory, Ser Endrew Tarth was working with some raw recruits. They’d come in last night with Conwy, one of the wandering crows who roamed the Seven Kingdoms collecting men for the Wall. This new crop consisted of a greybeard leaning on a staff, two blond boys with the look of brothers, a foppish youth in soiled satin, a raggy man with a clubfoot, and some grinning loon who must have fancied himself a warrior. Ser Endrew was showing him the error of that presumption. He was a gentler master-at-arms than Ser Alliser Thorne had been, but his lessons would still raise bruises. Sam winced at every blow, but Jon Snow watched the swordplay closely.

Sounds suspiciously like Arstan Whitebeard, who was looking for the rightful king/queen after being dismissed by Joffrey...

[Jon Reborn]

I am also not convinced that varys doesn't know. If he didn't before, he might be interested in poking around after the talk with Ned regarding the letter to Jon. Why would Ned be interested in writing a letter to Jon (who is now, in theory anyway, at the Wall for the rest of his life) of all of his family? Why not Robb, who would be Lord of Winterfell if anything happened to Ned? Or Catelyn, etc.?

[Lazy Lion]

While Varys was certainly interested in investigating that. Rhaegar tried to disappear, had a very limited staff at the ToJ, and Ned covered up the tracks as well as leaving a dozen false tracks concerning Jon Snow.

A very limited staff who never said anything again ever to anyone about being present at Prince Rhaegar's wedding? I find that absurdly unlikely.

It is not impossible that Varys' investigation was successful, just very unlikely.

Other way around. It's not impossible that Varys never would have deduced that Rhaegar had secretly married Lyanna, but it's ridiculously unlikely.

And since there is no hint at all that Varys knows, it probably was unsuccessful.

Or since there is no hint at all that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married, and no hint at all that Varys knows about them getting married, they probably were never married.

By the way, there need not be anyone to have presided over Rhaegar and Lyanna's wedding. A bride, a groom, a cloak, a tree and a witness would have been enough and neither the cloak, nor the tree*, nor Ser Arthur Dayne would have talked.

They didn't even need that; just randomly blurting out "We're married now" would have been every bit as effective as marrying in secret where no one could ever find out.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

I believe that Barristan Selmy may also know about Jon. See below, from Jon's first chapter in A Clash of Kings (bolder part mine):

Outside the armory, Ser Endrew Tarth was working with some raw recruits. They’d come in last night with Conwy, one of the wandering crows who roamed the Seven Kingdoms collecting men for the Wall. This new crop consisted of a greybeard leaning on a staff, two blond boys with the look of brothers, a foppish youth in soiled satin, a raggy man with a clubfoot, and some grinning loon who must have fancied himself a warrior. Ser Endrew was showing him the error of that presumption. He was a gentler master-at-arms than Ser Alliser Thorne had been, but his lessons would still raise bruises. Sam winced at every blow, but Jon Snow watched the swordplay closely.

Sounds suspiciously like Arstan Whitebeard, who was looking for the rightful king/queen after being dismissed by Joffrey...

Except Selmy isn't at the Wall, he's with Dany.

[Jon Reborn]

Except Selmy isn't at the Wall, he's with Dany.

But he could have made a stop at the Wall before heading to Dany, couldn't he have? We never hear anything about the greybeard with a staff at the Wall again.

Just stopped to suss out the situation, then headed on his way. Not sure if the timeline would work, but don't see why not.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

But he could have made a stop at the Wall before heading to Dany, couldn't he have? We never hear anything about the greybeard with a staff at the Wall again.

Just stopped to suss out the situation, then headed on his way. Not sure if the timeline would work, but don't see why not.

& he was suppose to ,what? Abandon the Watch? We all know how that works!

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I believe that Barristan Selmy may also know about Jon. See below, from Jon's first chapter in A Clash of Kings (bolder part mine):

Outside the armory, Ser Endrew Tarth was working with some raw recruits. They’d come in last night with Conwy, one of the wandering crows who roamed the Seven Kingdoms collecting men for the Wall. This new crop consisted of a greybeard leaning on a staff, two blond boys with the look of brothers, a foppish youth in soiled satin, a raggy man with a clubfoot, and some grinning loon who must have fancied himself a warrior. Ser Endrew was showing him the error of that presumption. He was a gentler master-at-arms than Ser Alliser Thorne had been, but his lessons would still raise bruises. Sam winced at every blow, but Jon Snow watched the swordplay closely.

Sounds suspiciously like Arstan Whitebeard, who was looking for the rightful king/queen after being dismissed by Joffrey...

So, he sucessfully managed to desert from the Wall without anyone knowing? Crackpot.

Furthermore, there are more old man using walking staffs than a single one. A million in westeros alone? Two? Five?

A very limited staff who never said anything again ever to anyone about being present at Prince Rhaegar's wedding? I find that absurdly unlikely.

Needn't be present at the wedding. But either way, they whoever they are never said anything again about Rhaegar banging Lyanna, or Lyanna being pregnant.

Could have been only Wylla.

Other way around. It's not impossible that Varys never would have deduced that Rhaegar had secretly married Lyanna, but it's ridiculously unlikely.

Why did neither Robert nor Tywin nor Cat nor anybody at all in the entire Westerosi nobility suspect Jon to be Lyanna's and Rhaegar's?

Or since there is no hint at all that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married, and no hint at all that Varys knows about them getting married, they probably were never married.

Could be. Doesn't relate to Varys knowing about Jon though. Not at all.

They didn't even need that; just randomly blurting out "We're married now" would have been every bit as effective as marrying in secret where no one could ever find out.

So what? Now we're gone from the question whether Varys has information on Jon at all to the question of whether Jon could convince Westeros of being Rhaegar's legal heir? Talk about shifting goalposts.

[Jon Reborn]

& he was suppose to ,what? Abandon the Watch? We all know how that works!

Well, he hadn't taken the vows, so he could just walk away. Decided that life at the Wall wasn't for him after all.

[Jon Reborn]

So, he sucessfully managed to desert from the Wall without anyone knowing? Crackpot.

Furthermore, there are more old man using walking staffs than a single one. A million in westeros alone? Two? Five?

True enough, w.r.t. old men with staffs, but why throw in mention of one there? GRRM does have a penchant for seemingly meaningless/innocuous bits of meaning to actually mean something or end up being foreshadowing, etc.

[Lazy Lion]

Needn't be present at the wedding. But either way, they whoever they are never said anything again about Rhaegar banging Lyanna, or Lyanna being pregnant.

Except that all of Westeros knows Rhaegar was banging Lyanna.

Why did neither Robert nor Tywin nor Cat nor anybody at all in the entire Westerosi nobility suspect Jon to be Lyanna's and Rhaegar's?

I would call Idiot Ball on that one: Martin needs no one to suspect Jon is Lyanna's, so nobody suspects. It's a bit of a stretch that all of Westeros knows Rhaegar banged Lyanna, but nobody even has the thought occur to them.

Of course Ned claims that Jon is his, and Ned is well-known as a truth-teller...

Could be. Doesn't relate to Varys knowing about Jon though. Not at all.

So what? Now we're gone from the question whether Varys has information on Jon at all to the question of whether Jon could convince Westeros of being Rhaegar's legal heir? Talk about shifting goalposts.

Have you been following this conversation? My point all along has been that even if Rhaegar and Lyanna were secretly married, it wouldn't matter. The only people who might possibly know about it are Howland Reed and Varys, and nobody of note is going to be convinced by Reed, while Varys is trying to put Aegon on the throne and therefore will not support Jon.

[Jon Reborn]

Have you been following this conversation? My point all along has been that even if Rhaegar and Lyanna were secretly married, it wouldn't matter. The only people who might possibly know about it are Howland Reed and Varys, and nobody of note is going to be convinced by Reed, while Varys is trying to put Aegon on the throne and therefore will not support Jon.

Hey now, let's not forget about Selmy... He might possibly know, after all ;)

Sorry, just find the possibility interesting.