Would Varys support Jon Snow?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Except that all of Westeros knows Rhaegar was banging Lyanna.

I meant love-banging resulting in pregancy, not rape-banging resulting in a violent death without issue.

Have you been following this conversation? My point all along has been that even if Rhaegar and Lyanna were secretly married, it wouldn't matter. The only people who might possibly know about it are Howland Reed and Varys, and nobody of note is going to be convinced by Reed, while Varys is trying to put Aegon on the throne and therefore will not support Jon.

Who cares? Nobody at all either way.That marriage will have personal effects for Jon and the other Starks, maybe Aegon, Dany, JonCon and Jaime, but no political effects at all.

I'll let that stand for itself...

[Aethermancer]

Joffrey is not legit but he supported him nonetheless, so no.

He supported him because there was no way to support the person Varys wanted at the time. I know who I want to run for president in 2024, but they are not old enough to be President now. That I have no choice but to support someone else until then doesn't mean I prefer one over the other.

[Lady Isobel]

I think Varys wants a king or queen he can manipulate - he wouldn't be able to do that with Jon, so my answer is no

[Welease Woger]

Varys is working with Illyrio. Illyrio seems to be supporting Aegon, but he also seems to be supporting Daenerys, which means that possibly Varys is supporting Daenerys too. How is that possible? I think the only reasonable explanation is that they must share the same interpretation of the old prophecies about the prince that was promised as Rhaegar. And the Dragon has three heads. I think they would support Jon too if they believed he was the third one.

[King of Winters]

No, he wouldn't support Jon because he's a Blackfyre and trying to get his Blackfyre nephew on the throne.

[Consigliere]

Varys is working with Illyrio. Illyrio seems to be supporting Aegon, but he also seems to be supporting Daenerys, which means that possibly Varys is supporting Daenerys too. How is that possible? I think the only reasonable explanation is that they must share the same interpretation of the old prophecies about the prince that was promised as Rhaegar. And the Dragon has three heads. I think they would support Jon too if they believed he was the third one.

I don't think that Illyrio and/or Varys was supporting Dany initially, just using her. The fact she managed to hatch three dragons is what changed their stance. If not for the dragons, imo, they wouldn't care about Dany.

[Corvo Attano]

If the Varys Blackfyre theories are true, then no.

If those theories aren't true, still no, because Jon will never be a contender for the Iron Throne.

[Welease Woger]

Even without hatching, dragon eggs are really, really valuable. Aegon could have done a lot with that, such as contracting some more mercenary groups, or buying unsullied warriors, or ships... but even though, Illyrio chose to give them to Daenerys (interstingly, he gifted them specifically to Daenerys, not Viserys!) And arrenged her marriage to a powerful warlord. Okay, the Dothraki are notoriously unwilling to cross the sea, but Daenerys had indeed managed to convince Drogo to do that.

He was helping Daenerys more than Aegon even before the eggs hatched. That's the main problem with the whole Blackfyre Theory. But if Illyrio and Varys are acting not out of family business, but religious business, that suddenly makes sense. They're fighting the good fight against The Great Other.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Varys and Illyrio were ready to sacrifice Dany (and Viserys) from the start. They treated them as tools to be used up, not as prophesied saviors or rightful rulers to reinstate.

The dragon eggs were just money. Illyrio has a lot of that. Necessary expenses. And who says FAegon doesn't have a dozen of them in the hold of his ships?

[jarl the climber]

Even if Aegon is an actuallity a Blackfyre, he is not trying to claim the throne through his Blackfyre heratige. The boy has been raised to beleive that he is the son of Rhaegar and Elia and is trying to take the the throne on that claim. If Jon lives, remains relavent and the Starks are restored to its rightful posistion in the North and RL=J is true and is revealed then it could become very important for Varys.

Since Jons Mother is of a rank that is more or less equal with Rhaegars his legitmacy is not really as big of an issue that people make it out to be. Nobody would have a problem bending the knee to him based on blood alone. He would provide Aegon with a possible heir til such time as he can get married and have children of his own. More importantly his connection to the Starks, Tullys, Arryns and Barrartheons could win the war for Aegon in short order. So yes Varys would gladly recognise Jons claim and name him as heir in the short term if it meant the support of the Starks, Tullys, the Arryns and possibly the Barratheons for Aegons claim. Of course Varys would want to make sure its true since its falsehood could undermine Aegons if its found to be false. At the same time if Aegon is a fake, Jon could be veiwed as a threat if this is revealed but since Jon is basically a Northener with little interst in the South its probaly worth the risk.

[Welease Woger]

Varys could have both their necks slit while they slept, if he wanted to. How exactely was he ready to sacrifice her?

And if Aegon did have so many resources, why didn't he build a much bigger army?

[jarl the climber]

Varys and Illyrio were ready to sacrifice Dany (and Viserys) from the start. They treated them as tools to be used up, not as prophesied saviors or rightful rulers to reinstate.

The dragon eggs were just money. Illyrio has a lot of that. Necessary expenses. And who says FAegon doesn't have a dozen of them in the hold of his ships?

Yes, Illryio admits that he expected Dany to die when he sent her to the Dothraki. They had some purpose for keeping Viserys alive but he was obviously not vital to their plans. I've always wondered what his reaction would be to the whole Aegon is really alive thing. I've never been sure about the whole dragon egg thing, they might have belonged to Viserys and Dany to begin with. I suppose its possible that Darry used the eggs as collateral to loan money from Illryio and when Darry died, Illryio took custody of them. But who knows but I doubt that Illryio just bought them. Varys might have just taken them from KL when the city was getting sacked.

[Welease Woger]

I think I missed that part in which Illyrio admits that he expected Daenerys to die.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Varys could have both their necks slit while they slept, if he wanted to. How exactely was he ready to sacrifice her?

Using them means getting profit out of them. Slitting their throats doesn't accomplish that.

Dany and Viserys got no education.

Viserys died while with the Dothraki, something Illyrio flat-out expected. He expected Dany to die as well.

The Dothraki were unlikely to invade the Seven Kingdoms.

The Dothraki would have never successfully invaded the Seven Kingdoms and Dany&Viserys would have died on the way.

The wineseller was one second away from killing Dany. That she survived was not up to Varys or Illyrio.

The first point in time when they cared for Dany was when she had dragons (and was eligible again as a bride). And no useless brother who'd claim the throne.

And if Aegon did have so many resources, why didn't he build a much bigger army?

We haven't seen everything out of it. Obviously it was enough to pay the Golden Company for years, the ships to transport them and probably a lot more. That's way beyond the worth of a fossilized dragon egg.

Yes, Illryio admits that he expected Dany to die when he sent her to the Dothraki. They had some purpose for keeping Viserys alive but he was obviously not vital to their plans. I've always wondered what his reaction would be to the whole Aegon is really alive thing. I've never been sure about the whole dragon egg thing, they might have belonged to Viserys and Dany to begin with. I suppose its possible that Darry used the eggs as collateral to loan money from Illryio and when Darry died, Illryio took custody of them. But who knows but I doubt that Illryio just bought them. Varys might have just taken them from KL when the city was getting sacked.

Darry and Illyrio had no dealings with each other. Darry and Oberyn, yes, but not Darry and Illyrio.

I agree on Varys looting the Targaryen stash. Which should have included a lot more than three eggs. Aegon V can't have destroyed at least 90% of his family's eggs in a single unsuccessful attempt.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I think I missed that part in which Illyrio admits that he expected Daenerys to die.

A Tyrion-Illyrio discussion in early Dance.

[Makes No Sansa]

I have royal blood (not from far) and no one cares. Nor do I 'cause it's irrelevant. Same could happen with Jon, but who knows, this is fantasy, at the end of the day. His sword might become all shiny and everyone would know he's the Prince thatw was Promised.

[Welease Woger]

Viserys died while with the Dothraki, something Illyrio flat-out expected. He expected Dany to die as well.

Well, Viserys died because he was an a*hole. Daenerys pleased Khal Drogo a lot, partly thanks to another present from Illyrio: Doreah, who taught her the arts of love. Dany only was really threatened after Drogo's death, and Illyrio didn't have anything to do with it.

The Dothraki were unlikely to invade the Seven Kingdoms.d

True. But Drogo was ready to invade them, just as Illyrio said he would, given some time.

The Dothraki would have never successfully invaded the Seven Kingdoms and Dany&Viserys would have died on the way.

Also true. But the Targaryen still had some friends in Westeros who could help, such as the Martells. And Dany had Jorah to assist her in search for it, another gift from Illyrio.

The wineseller was one second away from killing Dany. That she survived was not up to Varys or Illyrio.

Unless Ser Jorah was warned about the assassination attempt in the letter he received from Varys.

[Techelles]

I don't think that Rhaegar and Lyanna married in secret, partly because such a revelation would be entirely useless from a literary standpoint. Jon will be so staggered by the revelation of his true parents that the question of whether or not they were legally married will become ludicrously trivial.

Legitimacy is never trivial in Westeros. Literally never. It's kind of a societal pillar, in fact. And it certainly won't be trivial to Jon Snow, the one POV character we have whose entire identity is caught up in the issue of what it really means to be a bastard in Westeros. If anything, he'll care more about his parents and their situation than anyone.

Finally, I think Varys the Spider, Master of Whisperers, controller of his flock of little birds, most accomplished intelligence officer in Planetos, is unlikely to have thought "Hmm...Rhaegar has taken Lyanna Stark down to the Dornish Marches. I should probably not investigate this in any way, since there's absolutely no chance anything politically significant is taking place down there."

He can think whatever he likes, but that doesn't mean he has proof or even a decent lead. There's no reason to think that Varys has any more info about the Tower of Joy than anyone else. Almost everyone who was there is dead. The only certain candidate is Howland Reed; the only other reasonable suspect is Wylla.

A very limited staff who never said anything again ever to anyone about being present at Prince Rhaegar's wedding? I find that absurdly unlikely.

If there was a wedding, I doubt the ToJ staff (if there was any beyond Wylla) would have been privy to the crown prince's secrets. If there was a witness to the wedding, it was Arthur Dayne and/or Oswell Whent, both of whom are dead.

Other way around. It's not impossible that Varys never would have deduced that Rhaegar had secretly married Lyanna, but it's ridiculously unlikely.

Saying it's unlikely does not make it so. There really is such a thing as being beyond Varys' reach. He himself said that Lysa fled beyond his reach when she returned to the Eyrie. Does he know where Sansa is? I doubt it. After all, he's no Bloodraven.

Or since there is no hint at all that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married, and no hint at all that Varys knows about them getting married, they probably were never married.

These aren't quite comparable, because there are definitely hints about Rhaegar and Lyanna having a legitimate child, and their names are Gerold Hightower, Oswell Whent, and Arthur Dayne. Whether you accept their presence at the tower as evidence or not, a far better case can be made for the marriage than for Varys' knowledge of Jon's true parentage. There's a difference between evidence one does not buy and the absence of any sort of evidence altogether.

They didn't even need that; just randomly blurting out "We're married now" would have been every bit as effective as marrying in secret where no one could ever find out.

Perhaps we're dealing with honorable people who had planned to reveal the secret when the time was right.

Except that all of Westeros knows Rhaegar was banging Lyanna.

Westeros knows that Rhaegar and Lyanna are both very dead, and the story goes that it was a rape/hostage situation. That doesn't exactly suggest that the couple had an interest in child-bearing, especially when no evidence of a baby has ever come to light.

Have you been following this conversation? My point all along has been that even if Rhaegar and Lyanna were secretly married, it wouldn't matter. The only people who might possibly know about it are Howland Reed and Varys, and nobody of note is going to be convinced by Reed, while Varys is trying to put Aegon on the throne and therefore will not support Jon.

I'd withhold judgment on that one until all the facts are in, honestly. GRRM works in mysterious ways. I expect he's thought of things you and I haven't.

[jarl the climber]

Illryio also asked Viserys to stay at his manse after Danys marriage. Viserys insisted on staying with Dany til Drogo fufilled his end of the bargain. This is Viserys descision and his alone and it was done against the advice of Illryio and Jorah. The men of the GC said one of the plans involved them teaming up with Viserys who would be leading 60,000 Dothraki screamers. I think if Dany or Viserys seemed likely to be useful to the plan then they would be used whether it involved sacrificing them or not. Aegon is the one who can not be lost and even then putting him on the throne entails certian risks, even he is not completely safe and will have to run certian risks. Its not like Dany and Viserys being more expendable proves anything, they should be expendable to put their nephew on the throne. Considering Viserys nature and Danys age its not odd that they were not in on this secret.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Unless Ser Jorah was warned about the assassination attempt in the letter he received from Varys.

Ser Jorah, who had a vested interested in the assassination attempt to succeed? No one knew he'd fallen in love with Dany. Not even Jorah himself says that Varys wanted him to prevent the attempt. Furthermore, it was a really close call. Far to close to be feigned. Varys would never cut it so close if he was interested in Dany's survival.

It was done to piss off Drogo and aim him at Robert. Dany's life, no one cared about that.