Would Varys support Jon Snow?

[Berkilak]

Varys would never support any Stark because they would have him sacked, sent to the wall or executed straight away. They're too honourable to put up with Varys or LF playing games or undermining them.

Methinks you have a quality of Eddard confused with a quality of Starks in general.

[Northernmonkey]

Methinks you have a quality of Eddard confused with a quality of Starks in general.

Not at all. I'm can't be certain about Arya, Sansa or Bran, but Jon and Robb would both be similar rulers to Ned - we know that from Robb as King in the North and Jon as Lord Commander. All three were incredibly honourable and pragmatic, and ultimately all it backfired on them all.

[Berkilak]

Not at all. I'm can't be certain about Arya, Sansa or Bran, but Jon and Robb would both be similar rulers to Ned - we know that from Robb as King in the North and Jon as Lord Commander. All three were incredibly honourable and pragmatic, and ultimately all it backfired on them all.

And I think those were qualities they took very much from Eddard rather than the Stark lineage in general. Granted, his family are the only Starks flitting around during the time of the novels, but the Starks of the past weren't known for that trait. I'll give you that it is a recent Stark trait. :)

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

If he has to choose between Aegon or Jon, he goes with Aegon because he likely came up with that plan that brought Aegon around. Yet I don't see him having a problem with Jon if Aegon isn't around. He would see him as a son of Ned who was raised with a sense of duty.

[Berkilak]

If he has to choose between Aegon or Jon, he goes with Aegon because he likely came up with that plan that brought Aegon around. Yet I don't see him having a problem with Jon if Aegon isn't around. He would see him as a son of Ned who was raised with a sense of duty.

I'm curious to know what Varys's plan B is should Aegon not work out - he doesn't seem to be the type to put all his eggs in one basket.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I'm curious to know what Varys's plan B is should Aegon not work out - he doesn't seem to be the type to put all his eggs in one basket.

Die.

Casting down the Targaryens and replacing them with a Blackfyre has been his goal for thirty years. Everything he ever did since accepting Aerys' job offer was a means to that end.

[Berkilak]

Die.

Casting down the Targaryens and replacing them with a Blackfyre has been his goal for thirty years. Everything he ever did since accepting Aerys' job offer was a means to that end.

So if Aegon was to catch a bug and die within a week, you think Varys would just off himself?

[The Storm King]

no one knows what varys' true motivations are. why does he want aegon on the throne? who knows

why is he a targaryen or blackfyre supporter? who knows (illyrio might)

[Old-Growth]

I'm curious to know what Varys's plan B is should Aegon not work out - he doesn't seem to be the type to put all his eggs in one basket.

You mean all his dragon eggs. :) Though it was Illyrio who gave the three to Dany, to be sure.

Now Jon C., and one suspects Illyrio, are in favor of Aegon wedding Daenerys. I wonder, however, what match Varys has in mind for Aegon, if indeed, he has a clear preference. One entertaining possibility would be Cersei: if she could not marry the father why not the son? That would mean reducing Tommen to Lord of Casterly Rock (oops, I mean Storms End), but she might be willing to make that trade-off, since children by Aegon would be heirs to the throne, and she would also control one of the houses paramount, via Tommen. Bear in mind that Varys would probably not share Jon Connington's desire to wipe out "The Usurper's Line".

[Spartan64Destiny]

Varys was Master of Whispers under King Aerys. If Jon Snow was the trueborn son of Rhaegar, Varys would almost certainly already know it.

Remember when Arya was chasing a cat and got lost in the Red Keep, she over-heard a conversation going on between Varys and Ilyrio. I specifically read that Varys stating, "Yes and Ned Stark has his Bastard." Arya afterward found her father Ned and told him the contents of the conversation and I remember Ned thinking to himself in a worried fashion stating, "My bastard, is he talking about Jon." Hmmmmmmm!

[Dunk+Egg]

I was just reading CoK again, and came across and interesting conversation that piqued my interest. Tyrion and Varys are discussing power (page 101, CoK): [Tyrion to Varys] "So power is a mummer's trick?"

"A shadow on the wall," Varys murmured," yet shadows can kill. And ofttimes a very small man can cast a very largo shadow."

This really interested mean. Clearly Varys and Illyrio are friends, both of the Free Cities, etc. This could well lead to several interpretations Jon snow is "small" in the sense that he's a bastard, and many consider bastards weak, below them. Therefore, they underestimate them. It could also mean Tyrion has a bigger role to play, or Daenerys or a lot of people at this point to be honest.

Anyways, we all know that shadows can kill (Renly, the poor fool), and we learned that from our favorite Red Woman, a priestess of R'Hollr...

I may be reading too far into this, but it just caught my attention and seemed interesting. Who knows with GRRM... It's great anyways

[Ser Knute]

With respect to whether Varys knew or knows about Jon. We know that there's an as-yet untold story about the TOJ. Robert's discussions with Ned lead us to at least understand that Robert is aware or knowledgeable about the circumstances of her demise. What we also can likely surmise is: because it was Ned's sister, the story Robert was told is likely not factual. Robert believes Lyanna was abducted so far as I've been able to gather. That leaves two possibilities: that Rhaegar actually did abduct her, or Lyanna was a willing participant and they were 'eloping'. Either way, what we do know past that point is that Lyanna made Ned promise her something, whether that was to watch over the boy and raise him as his own and hide either the abduction or their (Rhaegar and Lyanna's) love for one another. This assumes R+L=J is true, but if it's not then it opens up a lot more possibilities, but this one seems most likely and if that is to be true...

Varys may or may not have been able to surmise or gain intel on the whom/what/why. Yes, Varys may know that 3 Kingsguard were dispatched to the TOJ, but what he may not have been able to obtain is, was the given reason factual or was it intended to make it seem as if they were there to guard the Prince while in Dorne. Everyone who was actually there seems to be mum on the subject. We have yet to be given crucial details; such as what is listed in the Kingsguard history book with respect to those 3 Kingsguard at TOJ that Selmy wrote down, and was that accurate or the information he was given? One thing I think we may be overlooking is: what was Rhaegar's knowledge of Varys? Could he have planned well enough to have maneuvered around the Little-Birds? We also (if memory serves) aren't fully clear on how Ned was actually called or lured to the TOJ. He may have thought that his sister was indeed abducted and found out when on the scene that it was actually completely different. To me there's still too many ifs and holes to be able to say for sure. As well, Varys indeed could be able to piece the puzzle together, figuring out that the LC of the Kingsguard and two of their very best remained at the TOJ when Rhaegar departs as he eventually does. On the other hand Jon doesn't look the part of a Targaryen, his physical features take from the Stark bloodline it appears which certainly couldn't have hurt Ned's cover-story.

Now onto the topic; I think it really depends on Varys' true motivations. If he's a Blackfyre descendant, I think it would be unlikely he'd support Jon. If he's not and is indeed a Targaryen Dynasty supporter, and Jon is in fact Targaryen as well, then the possibility that he'd support him is there but I'm sure with plenty of caveats. Does the realm react negatively towards Aegon? Does something happen that exposes Aegon as a ruse? Does Aegon, fake or legit, happen to make a 180 and start acting like 'a mad Targaryen' as quite a few have? A lot of things could happen that could make Jon a candidate for Varys' support, but I don't think I myself can make that leap on the information I have. Another thing we must consider is that the TOJ isn't quite like the Red Keep, I'm not sold as easily that Varys' reach could or would extend well there as I believe in the later books we're given information about how well guarded the Prince's Pass is. Another small point is who was left to pass information back to Varys if we can assume that only Stark loyalists left the TOJ. It is likely that Robert didn't know the full truth so Ned's own trusted bannermen kept their mouths shut to a man that Ned himself was very fond of and continued to serve, if he could pull that off, honorable as Ned is, it's within the realm of possibility that Varys isn't aware of the whole truth himself, which could explain his lack of interest in Jon (so far as we know to date).

The other thing about this that bothers me is: to this point we have had no reference that I'm aware of that Varys has the slightest bit of interest in Jon and if we couple that with how Varys manipulates Viserys and Danearys (as readers later understanding that they were not in fact his first choice to rule) it seems to me if he was aware of Jon's lineage he'd have dealt with him in some way himself. However it's Cersei that hatches schemes for Jon, mainly in retaliation of the North's rebellion which centered on Robb. I just don't see how anything that has befallen Jon has been Varys' doing, as such I lean towards him not knowing, which leaves open many possibilities depending on how Aegon's new-conquest plays out, how that is affected by Dany when she does come to Westeros and if Varys finds supporting Jon to be in his interest, whatever that truly is. My gut tells me Illyrio and Varys are playing at an end game that is beyond flat-out wealth, they've got plenty and have the ways and means to get more if that was their main goal. They want something more.

In the end I think Jon to be the reluctant hero. I don't think Jon wants to be King, he wants people to act honorably and do the right thing by their neighbor. So I'd agree that his knowing the truth will be more personal than political, but that doesn't mean that something political of it won't be made for him because of it or circumstances as they evolve. He sees Kings as squabbling and greedy towards their subjects, lands and wealth, while he sees the true threat to all men and that is his chief focus at the present. Hell most southrons don't even believe, snarks and grumpkins and a chuckle is about all he's getting out of any of 'em to this point. The interesting thing is that if it's all true (R+L=J), his mind may change (as he's growing wiser) indeed once he sees that with power he could influence things much more than he's currently able to as LC of Watch (or former).

I apologize for a such a long post that essentially says, we don't know enough yet, but I truly don't think we do and I think that's deliberate. At this point though, I don't see Varys caring much about Jon and I don't see Varys supporting Jon until I see something else; which would suggest that he wouldn't support Jon straight-away, something would have to happen in Varys' plan for me to see him supporting Jon if he is indeed a Targaryen.

[Ramsay B.]

I'm curious to know what Varys's plan B is should Aegon not work out - he doesn't seem to be the type to put all his eggs in one basket.

That's the main reason I want Aegon to die, to see what Varys would do. If he really is just loyal to Blackfyre's/Illyrio?

[The Blazed Knight]

Maybe Varys sent a bird to bowen marsh to put one in john snows back