[BOOK SPOILERS] Predictions for TV series: Season by Season

[Frey Pies]

Can't Braavos have the citadel though? It doesn't have to be in Oldtown, right?

[Hippocras]

Can't Braavos have the citadel though? It doesn't have to be in Oldtown, right?

That depends on the next book and how important Euron is.

I suspect not. But that is extrapolation. Only WoW can tell us.

[King Tommen]

The CItadel being in Braavos would certainly solve a lot of logistic problems for the show but it also might be a bridge too far in order to accommodate that change.

[Janicia]

I don't think Sam will be in Braavos for all that long actually. There is not enough for him to do there.

He will be at the Wall still for the first 3 or 4 episodes.

1. Stannis settles in at the Wall, discussions on what to do with the captives. LC election is called. "Mance" possibly burned, unless they skip that.

2. Sam behind the scenes, Jon becomes LC.

3. Jon fears for Aemon, sends Sam to become Maester.

4. Sam not in episode.

5. Sam arrives in Braavos. Aemon is sick. Daeron sent for food and supplies, but goes to brothel instead.

6. Sam goes looking for Daeron. Meets Arya. Arya shows Sam where Daeron is, maybe finds him a boat. Kills Daeron.

7. No Sam.

8. Aemon dies. Funeral. Sam gets laid.

Possibly one or two more episodes - one more at the Wall and one more in Braavos, but that is maximum.

Jon doesn't need Sam's help getting elected. The show Night's Watch has two plausible leaders - Alliser and Jon. Alliser is wounded, a lot of people hate him, and he seriously endangered the Night's Watch by refusing to seal the tunnel. Jon has connections to Mance and Stannis, is healthy, and is popular.

Part of the point of sending Sam's group away was to protect people from Melissandre. I anticipate them leaving in the first or second episode, as soon as Jon hears that Melissandre wants kings blood.

Either something important will happen in Oldtown, or it will just be a place where Sam goes to get knowledge and then leaves. If Oldtown is just a place where Sam spends time and meets Marwyn, the show should skip it. Sam reading books is not compelling TV. If something important will happen in Oldtown, Sam should probably get there before it happens rather than having a scanty arc in Bravos.

[Hippocras]

Jon doesn't have the power to send Sam away until after he is elected though.

[protar]

There's no indication the wood is scarce on the show version of Braavos. That is a change that can almost instantly be made. Hell, I've read the books and never realized wood was scarce in Braavos. Doubt it matters and doubt D&D care. A better argument is needed than "wood is scarce in the book version of Braavos"

Well why can't it be the case in the show as well? All it takes is one line of explanation. And in fact there are Targaryen's interned beneath the Great Sept of Baelor so it seems as though they may have done away with the Targaryen funeral practices entirely.

They don't need Koija Mo, they have Salladar! I'd like him to be the one taking Sam's group south.

I don't think Sam needs to start bar brawls to show his newfound manliness. Daeron spending the money keeps Sam and Gilly stuck in Bravos, which is probably where they'll be for most of Season 5. So sure, Daeron could make the cut. But Sam's story is one that may change massively in the adaptation.

How on earth would Salla be connected to Sam's arc? He's currently allied with Stannis once again. And I definitely think that Sam needs to take a stand against someone in a situation that isn't life threatening. It shows how much he has truly changed.

They actually do it all the time. There were a bunch of Black Brothers in the battle at the Wall this season we had never seen before.

There were IB characters at Moat Cailin who were introduced for one episode...

Introducing the Summer Islanders is part of preparing the stage for Alleras, maybe also Moqorro if he makes the cut.

There's no need to "prepare the stage" for Alleras. The Summer Islanders have already been introduced to us. The crew of the Cinammon Wind are minor characters who's roles can easily be taken by other characters. They're prime cutting material. There is absolutely nothing important about them.

[protar]

Jon doesn't need Sam's help getting elected. The show Night's Watch has two plausible leaders - Alliser and Jon. Alliser is wounded, a lot of people hate him, and he seriously endangered the Night's Watch by refusing to seal the tunnel. Jon has connections to Mance and Stannis, is healthy, and is popular.

Jon could be elected without Jon, but that kind of stomps all over Sam's development as a political player. And the fact that Jon wasn't elected this season suggests that they want some time to expand upon the election. So expect at least a couple of episodes on it.

[Hippocras]

Jon could be elected without Jon, but that kind of stomps all over Sam's development as a political player. And the fact that Jon wasn't elected this season suggests that they want some time to expand upon the election. So expect at least a couple of episodes on it.

Sam can't just make the choice to leave the Wall. Unless people are suggesting Thorne orders him to become a maester, Sam absolutely has no way to leave until after Jon is elected.

[King Tommen]

Jon could be elected without Jon, but that kind of stomps all over Sam's development as a political player. And the fact that Jon wasn't elected this season suggests that they want some time to expand upon the election. So expect at least a couple of episodes on it.

I expect that Slynt will be the frontrunner (as he was in the books) and Sam's revelation that Slynt pussied off during the battle (something that was not apparent to anyone but Sam) will be the thing that helps Jon win the election.

[Hippocras]

There's no need to "prepare the stage" for Alleras. The Summer Islanders have already been introduced to us. The crew of the Cinammon Wind are minor characters who's roles can easily be taken by other characters. They're prime cutting material. There is absolutely nothing important about them.

Sure there is, if she is important. We don't know if she is, mind you, but if she is, before she is introduced it helps to have a few minor characters that give some colorful BG info on her. It helps people relate to the character when she is introduced.

I don't get why people want the Cinnamon Wind cut so badly, frankly. Why argue for that? Do you seriously think a random sex scene in Braavos makes better TV than some elegant black people with feather costumes who treat sex kind of religiously? Why do that when it creates an additional need for an explanation for packing up and shipping Aemon's corpse? The show already has a boat, so why would they go to such lengths to avoid using it?

[Janicia]

How on earth would Salla be connected to Sam's arc? He's currently allied with Stannis once again. And I definitely think that Sam needs to take a stand against someone in a situation that isn't life threatening. It shows how much he has truly changed.

Sallador is Davos' friend, and has no loyalty to Stannis. He took Stannis to the north, but he's not going to stay at the Wall with them. He and his ships are probably hanging out wherever Stannis landed, and will provide transport to any characters leaving the Wall by ship.

Sam insisting that Gilly stay with him is Sam taking a stand in a non-life threatening situation. We already saw him insist on allowing her back into Castle Black. Heck, back in season 1, Sam took a stand against Jon running away from the Wall. Sam also took a stand in abandoning his family's religion. I'm sure he'll have more opportunities to take a stand, and I think his show character has already evolved to a point where standing up to Daeron wouldn't be a big moment for him. Show Sam decided in the midst of a battle that their troops were being incorrectly deployed, got through the melee to the commander, made his case, and troops were deployed like he wanted. He's capable of arguing with a drunk in a bar.

[protar]

Sam can't just make the choice to leave the Wall. Unless people are suggesting Thorne orders him to become a maester, Sam absolutely has no way to leave until after Jon is elected.

What does that have to do with my post? I wasn't suggesting he would leave before Jon's election.

I expect that Slynt will be the frontrunner (as he was in the books) and Sam's revelation that Slynt pussied off during the battle (something that was not apparent to anyone but Sam) will be the thing that helps Jon win the election.

Possibly. Probably even. In my opinion it kind of takes away from Sam's scheming though. I'd rather Sam saw that he didn't have the clout to get people to believe that and instead he'd need to manipulate them. So ideally we have Janos, Thorne and I guess Yarwyck running for Commander, that being established in S5e01. Sam talks with Aemon about Janos' cowardice but he realises his word means little. In S5e02 he speaks to Thorne and Yarwyck (who disagree with one another on policies) and persuades each one that Stannis is about to choose the other as LC. I could see Thorne grudgingly supporting Jon after his actions in the Battle, especially if they want Thorne to replace Bowen - supporting him and then slowly turning against him. And of course Yarwyck is a blank slate.

Sure there is, if she is important. We don't know if she is, mind you, but if she is, before she is introduced it helps to have a few minor characters that give some colorful BG info on her. It helps people relate to the character when she is introduced.

I don't get why people want the Cinnamon Wind cut so badly, frankly. Why argue for that? Do you seriously think a random sex scene in Braavos makes better TV than some elegant black people with feather costumes who treat sex kind of religiously? Why do that when it creates an additional need for an explanation for packing up and shipping Aemon's corpse? The show already has a boat, so why would they go to such lengths to avoid using it?

We already have been introduced to characters from the Summer Isles. And to be honest that's not a requirement for introducing Alleras.

I don't want the Cinnamon Wind cut, I just am absolutely certain that it will be because it's such a minor part of the books that can easily be replaced. Nothing about it is pivotal to the story. You're assuming an awful lot in saying that Aemon's corpse will become super important in future books - that's a speculation that I have never seen before. And even if it's correct there are two perfectly good reasons for why Aemon can't get a funeral pyre on Braavos - either wood is too scarce, or in the show canon Targs don't burn their dead to start with.

Sallador is Davos' friend, and has no loyalty to Stannis. He took Stannis to the north, but he's not going to stay at the Wall with them. He and his ships are probably hanging out wherever Stannis landed, and will provide transport to any characters leaving the Wall by ship.

Sam insisting that Gilly stay with him is Sam taking a stand in a non-life threatening situation. We already saw him insist on allowing her back into Castle Black. Heck, back in season 1, Sam took a stand against Jon running away from the Wall. I'm sure he'll have more opportunities to take a stand, and I think his show character has already evolved to a point where standing up to Daeron wouldn't be a big moment for him. Show Sam decided in the midst of a battle that their troops were being incorrectly deployed, got through the melee to the commander, made his case, and troops were deployed like he wanted. He's capable of arguing with a drunk in a bar.

You're missing the point of his bar fight with Dareon. It's got nothing to do with his ability to be brave in a battle. It's got to do with Sam, punching someone in the face when there is nothing at stake for him. In fact there is nothing at stake whatsoever aside from honour. It is one of the pivotal moments of Sam's character development. Add to that that killing Dareon is also an important part of Arya's development and I give him pretty good odds of being cast, or else for someone from the Wall to take his place.

ETA: Oh and as for Salla we have no idea what he'll be doing in S5, but at the moment the indication is that he is still loyal to Stannis now that he's got some gold. Plus if Salla is the one to get Sam and co. to Braavos he can't be the one to get him out again - the whole point of that piece of the story is that Sam doesn't have a lift the rest of the way to Oldtown.

[Janicia]

Jon doesn't have the power to send Sam away until after he is elected though.

Good point, but that should be one of the first things happening in season 5. I don't think there will be political intrigue - there will be a vote and Jon will win it and Alliser will be sad. Sam's political skills could be shown by counseling Jon how to approach Alliser after so that they can work together. Sam could also give Jon advice on how to deal with Stannis.

Show Slynt is not a plausible contender for leadership at the Wall. There are like 40 guys left in the Night's Watch and half of them saw him fall apart when he was given the Wall. People also saw him say stupid things about Giants earlier in season 4 that demonstrated he has no knowledge of the north. People don't need to know that he hid in a storeroom to know that they don't want him as leader, and I doubt that is even a secret. When the dude that freaked out and disappeared mid-battle reappears clean and unhurt at the end of the battle and nobody saw him fighting, people know he wasn't fighting.

Season 4 established that the only leadership at the Wall is Alliser, Jon, and Aemon. Nobody else was relevant during Jon's trial, the master builder was shown to have no spine during the argument about sealing the tunnel, and when it came time for battle, Alliser, Jon, and Edd stepped up. There is no Yarwyck.

[Janicia]

You're missing the point of his bar fight with Dareon. It's got nothing to do with his ability to be brave in a battle. It's got to do with Sam, punching someone in the face when there is nothing at stake for him. In fact there is nothing at stake whatsoever aside from honour. It is one of the pivotal moments of Sam's character development. Add to that that killing Dareon is also an important part of Arya's development and I give him pretty good odds of being cast, or else for someone from the Wall to take his place.

ETA: Oh and as for Salla we have no idea what he'll be doing in S5, but at the moment the indication is that he is still loyal to Stannis now that he's got some gold. Plus if Salla is the one to get Sam and co. to Braavos he can't be the one to get him out again - the whole point of that piece of the story is that Sam doesn't have a lift the rest of the way to Oldtown.

I've been arguing that I don't think Sam will get stranded in Bravos because we've had plenty of Sam and Gilly not doing much because they're stuck. Sam and Gilly have to justify their presence in the show by doing something besides getting themselves stuck and unstuck. They should either go to Bravos and stay in Bravos, or they should go to Oldtown and not get stuck in Bravos. I like Sam and Gilly, but them wandering around together for seasons is out of place in the show.

I don't see Dareon as being particularly important to either show Sam or show Arya because those characters are in somewhat different places than they were in the books. And neither book Sam nor book Arya would describe their interactions with Dareon as in the top 20 most important things that have happened to them. Additionally, Pyp was a decent substitute for Daeron - he was unjustly sent to the Wall, he sang, he must have hated life at the Wall, he was fairly cynical - and the show killed him off rather than saving him for the Daeron story.

Sallador isn't loyal. Stannis paid him for transport to the Wall. Stannis is not expecting to fight a naval battle anytime soon unless the show has something truly unexpected planned. Sallador has no reason to stay in the far north indefinitely.

[Hippocras]

I do accept that Aemon's corpse being significant is speculation.

However, given the amount of emphasis there is in the books on King's blood being a key part of the strongest magic, and given that GRRM went into great detail on the preservation of Aemon's corpse, as well as Marwyn leaving on the Cinnamon Wind as soon as he was told everything, you really do have to wonder. Marwyn was specifically mentioned as having trained in Eastern magic in Asshai, and being the only expert on magic at the Citadel.

Meanwhile Euron, with his warlock association, is about to attack Oldtown and the Citadel. If Aemon's corpse did not go with Marwyn, Euron is just as likely to use it for magical purposes.

[protar]

I've been arguing that I don't think Sam will get stranded in Bravos because we've had plenty of Sam and Gilly not doing much because they're stuck. Sam and Gilly have to justify their presence in the show by doing something besides getting themselves stuck and unstuck. They should either go to Bravos and stay in Bravos, or they should go to Oldtown and not get stuck in Bravos. I like Sam and Gilly, but them wandering around together for seasons is out of place in the show.

I don't even know what to say to this argument. It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Sam and Gilly are doing enough in Braavos to "justify their existence in the show." Plus if Sam goes straight to Oldtown that presumably must wait until S6. Which means rather than doing stuff in Braavos he and Gilly will be at the Wall with nothing to do.

I don't see Dareon as being particularly important to either show Sam or show Arya because those characters are in somewhat different places than they were in the books. And neither book Sam nor book Arya would describe their interactions with Dareon as in the top 20 most important things that have happened to them. Additionally, Pyp was a decent substitute for Daeron - he was unjustly sent to the Wall, he sang, he must have hated life at the Wall, he was fairly cynical - and the show killed him off rather than saving him for the Daeron story.

Well I disagree I think he's pivotal to Sam's arc and pretty important to Arya's.

Sallador isn't loyal. Stannis paid him for transport to the Wall. Stannis is not expecting to fight a naval battle anytime soon unless the show has something truly unexpected planned. Sallador has no reason to stay in the far north indefinitely.

Salla is loyal to money. Stannis is giving him money. Until it's explicitly spelled out otherwise he is part of Stannis' forces.

[protar]

I do accept that Aemon's corpse being significant is speculation.

However, given the amount of emphasis there is in the books on King's blood being a key part of the strongest magic, and given that GRRM went into great detail on the preservation of Aemon's corpse, as well as Marwyn leaving on the Cinnamon Wind as soon as he was told everything, you really do have to wonder. Marwyn was specifically mentioned as having trained in Eastern magic in Asshai, and being the only expert on magic at the Citadel.

Meanwhile Euron, with his warlock association, is about to attack Oldtown and the Citadel. If Aemon's corpse did not go with Marwyn, Euron is just as likely to use it for magical purposes.

Again, even if Aemon's corpse is important there are two good explanations for why he doesn't get a pyre in Braavos. So it's a moot point.

[Hippocras]

Again, even if Aemon's corpse is important there are two good explanations for why he doesn't get a pyre in Braavos. So it's a moot point.

You still have not given any good reason WHY they would change it, when staying in Braavos would be far less interesting, would not save any time, would require contrived explanations, and the show already has a boat to shoot the scenes on.

The one-episode actor thing is a non-issue. The show does that quite a lot.

[wiffy]

I feel like the book fandom constantly overestimates how much material will be covered per season. I realize that some characters are already in book 4/5 material, but there is still some book 3 material left to cover. It's likely that the fringe story lines, such as Sansa, Bran, and Davos, may catch up or surpass the books next year. However, I think the general pace will still be closer to adapting all of book 4 with the concurrent book 5 chapters. The producers could just move something up like Deznak's Pit or Kevan's death in order to provide a big finale. Here are some of my predictions:

Bran: The three-eyed crow will teach Bran about green seeing. I think he will witness a lot of things from the past that will also provide exposition to the audience.

Brienne: Similar to the books, Lady Stoneheart will be introduced independently of Brienne. Brienne will encounter Gendry and the Brotherhood before facing Stoneheart near the end of the season.

Daenerys: Season 5 will cover her remaining time in Meereen and her episode 10 moment will be at Deznak's Pit. Quentyn Martell may or may not be cut.

Cersei: All of Cersei's book 4 material will be covered. She will be fighting with Margaery over Tommen. Near the end of the season, the High Septon will arrest her and she will try to send a summons to Jaime. Her penance walk will NOT happen this season.

Jaime: Based on the casting news, Jaime and Bronn will be embroiled in the plots at Dorne. As a result, I suspect that Jaime's trip to Riverrun will either be cut, delayed, or drastically altered. After leaving Dorne, he will receive a note from Cersei and choose to burn it instead.

Jon Snow: Jon will be elected Lord Commander, counsel Stannis, and execute Janos Slynt. The majority of his season will center around his decisions to send Sam to Oldtown and Mance to Winterfell. He will NOT die this season, but Melisandrea may warn him about what she sees in the flames.

Theon: Theon is asked to to give fake Arya away at a wedding. Near the end of the season, a series of murders start occurring at Winterfell and Theon is suspected. He may have his sanity restored by the end of the season (and more interaction w/ Bran than in the books), but he won't rescue fake Arya until season 6.

Tyrion: Tyrion will interact with both Illyrio and Jon Connington before being captured by Jorah. I expect a lot of filler, but great scenes between Jorah and Tyrion. His final scene will be in the fighting pits. He will not join the Second Sons until next season.

Yara: I think we'll see Balon Greyjoy die on camera. We'll then see a very condensed King's Moot with some characters being merged later in the season. Victarion (or Euron) will not leave for Meereen until the finale.

this. Yep LS will be iintruduced together with a character show watchers knows and that is Brienne we will likely see hints of Frey hangings before the meet though

and i do not even think Jon will die he will be severely wounded from the stab wounds but i di not think GRRM would kill off his main hero of the story when book 6 and 7 hasn't even come out yet

[Janicia]

Gilly has not done a single thing on the show that any other character cares about except Sam and the dead white walker. Sam talked Jon into staying in the Night's Watch twice in season 1, showed Bran how to get through the Wall (but BR could have done that since the Wall doesn't have a magic door in the show), and figured out how to kill white walkers which probably won't be relevant until season 6 at earliest. Sam and Gilly are sweet, but in a show filled with battles and intrigue and kings, it is weird to spend so much time on them walking and camping. It is time for those characters to contribute to the overarching story of the show in a bigger way than arguing with an extra and briefly meeting Arya.