Royces, Starks and Waynwoods-- Corbrays and Templetons too

[Lord Martin]

If he has the support of the Vale and the North he'll have the power to claim his seat in Harrenhal as we'll. Edmure Tully would be the most likely challenger since everyone hates the Freys. But if he has the Support of Harry and Sansa... Helping uncle Baelish retake Harrenhal isn't much to ask for.

Also, LF just loves the game for the sake of the game... How high can a low born man climb...

But then again, LF's schemes are always hard to predict.

[Lord Martin]

He'll be double crossing Lady Waynwood then. Morton won't be able to press a claim

Sure, but not much they can do about it, who else would support their claim to WF? House Waynwood will nurse a grievance against LF, but they lack the power to oppose him if he has support from other Vale lords (who owe allegiance to Harry) and some northern lords who support Ned's oldest daughter.

Besides, LF only told Anya that Arya was fake, not that Sansa was gone. (In this hypothetical)

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

When a major house, like the Starks becomes extinct or nearly extinct, I have to imagine the maesters and lords go running to sort out who has the best claims and that is sort of what is being done here.

I highly doubt LF would tell Lady Waynwood about Sansa Stark.... but "Arya" Stark is another matter. She is really the one standing in the way of the Waynwood claim to Winterfell, if there is one. And that is information LF could really use to his benefit.

Moving backwards from Robb the line of succession is:

Bran (presumed dead);

Rickon (ditto),

Sansa (missing/suspected of regicide) and

Arya (married to Ramsay Bolton).

Then it goes to any of Eddard's siblings and their children. Lyana is dead, Benjen missing and a sworn brother of the NW. Jon Snow raises an interesting issue but again, sworn to the NW.

So then we go next to Edwyle's generation and the Waynwood, Corbrays and Templetons bit. I share Lady G's concerns that Lyn Corbray could be next in line for Winterfell, so lets hope its the Waynwoods. The chronology is a tad messed up though.

In House Waynwood, there is Royce/Stark daughter no. 1 who is of a generation with Lord Rickard. If Lady G's definition of "lordling" is correct then daughter 1 married an older brother of Elys Waywood, the grandfather of Harry the Heir.

Daughter 1 and Lord Waynwood then had children including Lady Anya... that makes Lady Anya of Ned's generation.... I'm not sure how the math would work to make Lady Anya "elderly" however. My understanding is that Edwyle's sister was a younger sister suggesting that her children would be younger than Edwyle's and therefore her grandchild (Anya) would be younger than Edwyle's grandchildren (Eddard). There is time for a correction, but since its only a two generation span, Edwyle and his sister have to be close in age and Daughter 1 must have procreated before Rickard did to result in the "elderly" Anya Waynwood.... or Lord Edwyle had Rickard when he was very old.

We also know Lady Anya has three sons: Morton, Donnell and Wallace. Morton is the oldest and was one of Lysa's suitors at Tyrion's trial. If the line of succession runs through Edwyle's sister, Daughter 1 and her offspring, the line seems to end with Morton, Donnell and Wallace Waynwood.

Now if we work backwards, we know Donnell is 20 and has a younger brother, likely about 18. So how old could Lady Anya really be? If she has children as young as 18, could she be much past 55? A child at 37 is certainly possible but does not seem highly likely. Is someone "elderly" at 50? Perhaps by ASOIAF standards.

All that aside, Lady Waynwood has three sons, she needs to find good results for all of them. Morton will inherit the House, Donnell is Knight of the Gate and Wallace is in line for nothing. A fine result but nothing spectacular. But LF can offer Winterfell to Morton simply by outing the fake Arya Stark." I suspect his conversation with Lady Waynwood went something like this...

LF: So my lady, have you heard the news of Winterfell? Roose Bolton's bastard has been legitimized and married to Eddard Stark's youngest daughter.

LW: So I had heard, I heard the she-wolf pup was missing since the Lannister's snipped off Lord Eddard's head. Would that she stayed missing....

LF: Why is that my lady... what is Arya Stark to Anya Waynwood?

LW: The difference is less than an "r" and an "n." House Waynwood has what was until recently, a distant claim to Winterfell. My dear mother, Aryanya Waynwood was born Aryanya Royce, the daughter of Martyn Royce and Lyness Stark, sister of Edwyle Stark who was grand father to Lord Eddard... with the young wolf and his brothers dead and both Stark daughter's missing, I had hopes my son Morton could press our claim. The Vale was not touched by the war and house Waynwood and Royce have enough men to take Winterfell by force if needs be, but with a daughter of Eddard Stark in the way, we cannot press that claim...

LF (who knows all this already): I see, well what if I were to tell you that Bolton's bride is no true wolf, but merely a stewart's whelp plucked by Lord Tywin from one of my brothels to secure Lord Bolton's allegiance and give him a claim false to Winterfell.

LW: You have proof of this?

LF: My dear, she worked in my brothel, I produced her at the King's command, I made "Arya Stark" and I can unmake her....for a friend... a loyal friend?

LW: Oh Petyr.....

The truth of Arya Stark was the "dowery" LF gave to Lady Waynwood. If Arya is fake, then there are none of Ned's children left to make a claim. My guess is that LF promised to raise the Vale Lords on behalf of the Waynwoods in asserting their claim to Winterfell. This could be before or after Sweet Robin's death. Then during the war, LF will unveil Sansa Stark. The Northern Lords will abandon Bolton to support Sansa's claim to WF, Harry will want WF for his wife as well and Harry's Lords will have no choice but to follow him. LF will likely end up ruling one area or the other on behalf of Harry and Sansa until their own children are old enough.

You've made an interesting case here. I am convinced that Lady Anya was given some information that convinced her to betroth Harry to Alayne. Remember that Miranda Royce wasn't good enough for him-- how are we to accept that Petyr Baelish's bastard daughter is, no matter how large her dowry? Your speculation is interesting because it factors in that delicious tidbit that Baelish alone of the Vale lords is privy to-- that Arya Bolton is a fake. LF also has in his possession one person who is in a position to expose that fact.

It seems undoubtedly his style to feed Lady Anya a bit of the truth, while continuing to hold his cards close to the vest. As for what he plans long term in regard to Sansa and HtH, I wonder if that isn't one of the "fruits" he had hoped would ripen. A death (SR's), an inheritance (HtH's), a reveal (A=S), a marriage (S+H), a child (new heir to Vale + WF), a claim pressed (WF) and a tragic death (HtH). At which point LF would marry the grieving widow and (as in the case of his union with Lysa) rule in her stead.

How this might play out with Lady Anya could be something like-- "I told you Arya Bolton was a fake. You then jumped to your own conclusions. I never said anything at all about Sansa Stark." ;)

I think he underestimates the women in his planning (Sansa, Lady Anya, and Miranda Royce could all muck things up for him) and he is dealing in faulty information about Eddard Stark's male heirs. As for Lady Anya's age, you correctly point out that her youngest son is still in his teens. She really can't be that elderly. I think it's just one of those POV perceptions-- maybe to Sansa late forties seems elderly, especially since her hair is grey.

Getting back to the genealogical theme we started with, I am very curious about the nature of the Baelish family's long association with the Corbrays, the fact that they managed to obtain a minor lordship, and the fact that the Corbrays evidently have relatively recent Stark connections. Is there something hidden in that recent past that might explain Petyr Baelish's vendetta against the Stark brothers? Something bigger than jealousy over a young woman? Or perhaps something that would make that jealousy much more galling?

ps my own (very small) quibble with your analysis is that I believe that Edwyle Stark's sister who married into the Vale was his elder sister. This works with timing, as well as a possible She-Wolves scenario for Edwyle's parentage that I won't get into here :)

[WeirwoodTreeHugger]

Great thread. I don't know how I missed it the first time around.

I don't have anything really intelligent to add, but I have always assumed Anya Waynwood and the Royces are players, not pawns. It seems certain they know who Alayne is. Even with dyed hair, she still looks like the Tullys. Sansa is certainly prettier than Lysa was, but they would still have shared some features. A daughter nobody ever heard of before who looks a little bit like Lysa suddenly turns up in the Vale just as Sansa goes missing. How could the Vale lords/ladies not figure it out?

The question is, does LF suspect they might know. Or has he gotten cocky and complacent and assumes that he easily fooled everyone? I've always suspected LF is only a great player as long as nobody is suspecting him. LF depends on the fact that people underestimate him. It's about time his downfall starts and the Myranda Royce/Sansa friendship will probably be key.

Also, for what its worth they already cast Anya Waynwood and Yohn Royce for season 4 of the TV show. That leads to me to think they might be important even though I know it's bad to read too much into what show does.

[Ser Drinksalot]

Seem's to me Lady Anya thinks she can win both ways. She has guessed who Alayne is and see's that if LF plan comes off then Harry the Heir gets The Vale, Winterfell and quite likely the Riverlands as well. The Waynwoods are then close kin to this huge concentration of power and wealth and stand to gain from that. If LF plan goes tits up then Sansa almost certainly doesn't survive and Lady Anya is then heir to Winterfell herself, assuming she has made sure she can distance herself from the failed conspiracy.

Of course this is all semantics really because WE know that Lady Anya is operating under the false assumption that Bran, Rickon and Arya are dead.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Seem's to me Lady Anya thinks she can win both ways. She has guessed who Alayne is and see's that if LF plan comes off then Harry the Heir gets The Vale, Winterfell and quite likely the Riverlands as well. The Waynwoods are then close kin to this huge concentration of power and wealth and stand to gain from that. If LF plan goes tits up then Sansa almost certainly doesn't survive and Lady Anya is then heir to Winterfell herself, assuming she has made sure she can distance herself from the failed conspiracy.

Of course this is all semantics really because WE know that Lady Anya is operating under the false assumption that Bran, Rickon and Arya are dead.

You may be right that she's trying to play both sides, especially if she has been given the information about fake!Arya by LF. Of course without that tidbit, she would be under the assumption that Sansa's younger sister has claimed WF with the help of her new "family" the Boltons, and the blessing of the Lannisters, who installed Roose Bolton as the new Lord Paramount of the North. To that stew, we could add the resentment of the Vale Lords for the Lannisters who usurped the Warden of the East title to one of their own, way back at the beginning of it all.

The real conflict of loyalties will come when the contents of Robb's will and/or the survival of Bran and Rickon becomes known in the Vale.