Bad News Baelish, or Purple Wedding 2.0?

[Petyr Patter]

My musing's on Littlefinger's game as by the end of A Feast for Crows. I really do need to find a more productive hobby...

What do Lysa Arryn, Dontas Hollard, Eddard Stark, and Joffrey Baratheon have in common? They are dead. Oh, and they died after working with Littlefinger. Taken as a whole, these deaths represent a pattern in Littlefinger's behavior. Namely, he kills off people who know enough to convict him, or at least make him look bad. Should Eddard Stark have actually taken the Black, he would have been sure to tell everyone he meets that Littlefinger back stabbed him, almost literately. Which is one of the reasons I think Littlefinger did convince Joffrey to order Eddard's death, but that is a topic for another thread. Also, should Joffrey ever let grandpappy (he only has one!) know whose idea the execution was... well, that's one lose end that he had to tie up.

Why is this pattern important? Because Sansa knows enough to convict him of all sorts of crimes. Even scarier, Littlefinger himself gave her the Zapruder Film to get him killed or exiled. Is this because Sansa is “his weakness”? Sansa is the image of the love that spurned him (Catelyn), but wrought lovelier and now in his power. Maybe.

But I am going to argue no. He has proven himself able to lie to Sansa on other points when it benefits him. For example, he told Sansa that Tyrion gave Tysha to the barracks out of “boredom” instead of Tywin doing it to teach a lesson. He also lied to Sansa about “taking her home,” right until they arrive at the Fingers and get off. So, why let Sansa know he arranged for the Tyrells to poison Joffrey? Or that Lyn Corbray was working for him when he violated guest rights by drawing his sword? Or why murder Dontos in front of her instead of waiting until Sansa was out of sight?

Simply put, his plans involve killing Sansa.

There is another explanation, “narrative necessity.” Perhaps George Martin wanted to let readers know exactly what has been happening, so he stretched Littlefinger's character to allow gloating about his plans (or some of them anyways) to a young maid. Yet, there were other options that could have achieved the same effect. Have Lysa blab even more to Sansa. Or, maybe have Sansa develop as a skin changer and have her overhear a discussion between Littlefinger and a subordinate.

So, I'm going to go with the assumption that Littlefinger plans on killing Sansa. The alternative is Littlefinger lets Sansa become Lady Paramount of Winterfell, Lady Wife of the future Lord of the Vale, and not out of the picture Lady Paramount of Riverrun. This is a lot of power wrapped up in one individual who knows you are untrustworthy and kill kings who give great lordships for apparently no motivation. Should Sansa ever figure out the role Littlefinger played in her father's 'arrest' in King's Landing... he could be in for a world of hurt. And Sansa with a lifetime would inevitably do just that.

On the otherhand, Sansa isn't dead yet. To know why, you have to know Littlefinger's goals. I don't know Littlefinger's goals. Power? Revenge? To play the game of thrones for the love of the game? Love? His strategy of moving randomly keeps readers as confused as his enemies. Lets develop these a bit.

• He wants power, to rise as high as he possibly can. As much power, influence, and wealth as is available. If he were to ever become king of Westeros, he'd start planning on invading Essos. This certainly seems to be his pattern of behavior so far.
  
• Revenge. House Tully refused to consider him as a match for Catelyn, instead giving the love of his life to House Stark. They also aborted his child with Lysa and gave her to Jon Arryn. The insult of it hurt more than the lost love. He plans on destroying Houses Tully, Stark, and Arryn, devastate their land, and steal the loyalty of their bannermen.
  
• Or, perhaps his revenge is a bit more specific in nature. He loved Catelyn, but Catelyn only pitied him, “he's only a boy.” A harsh reminder that he was only an observer in high society. Did love turn to hate as a result? Is Sansa a way to achieve not a surrogate “love with Catelyn,” but a surrogate revenge on Catelyn for denying him?
  
• Yet, no one else seems to get quite so excited about “the game of thrones” as Littlefinger. Jorah may reference lords playing “their game of thrones,” and Tyrion may claim Illyrio only plays the game of thrones. However, Littlefinger describes everyone and everybody in terms of pieces and players and moves. Perhaps he is just in it for the game, and like all nerds who play a game not enjoyed by 99.9% of the population, Littlefinger is desperate to have more people to play it with. Unfortunately, playing the Game with people means eventually killing them, thus exacerbating the problem.
  

So, I've got nothing. It is excessively hard to figure out Littlefinger's ultimate goal, so to have any shot of a coherent post, I'm going to assume he's after power through wealth, titles, and allies. Furthermore, I assume his ambitions have no bounds. He is not aiming to built a grand alliance to serve. He wants a grand alliance to serve him. Lord Protector of the Vale? How about Lord Paramount of the Vale and Riverlands? But why stop there? King on the Iron Throne has a nicer ring to it. Of course, first things first, he needs to get the Vale behind him one lie or body at a time.

Yet, despite Sansa knowing enough to piece together Littlefinger's crimes, such as the poisoning of Jon Arryn and kick starting the War of the 5 Kings, Sansa is still alive. Not only that, Littlefinger continues to bring her into his confidence.

Which leads me to my second conclusion, Littlefinger needs Sansa to play a part before he kills her. Or, at least knows a part that she might play. Littlefinger is not a long term planner, he's an opportunist. He saw a chance to grab the heir to Winterfell and a potential claimant to Riverrun so he took it. I think it is worth noting that Littlefinger planned the escape before Theon claimed to have killed Bran and Rickon, which means she wasn't an heiress at the time. Perhaps Littlefinger thought he could sell Sansa back to Robb.

Of course, Sansa right now is a poisoned prize. Both Cersei and Mace Tyrell are convinced she had a hand in poisoning Joffrey. Mace might not care about Joffrey, but suspects Sansa had hoped to kill Margaery as well. The fact that Margaery and Olenna Tyrell know better, being the actual poisoners, is not something they can actually say. Just to increase the “Sansa danger,” should Littlefinger's harboring of Sansa become known, Mace and Cersei might assume he also had a hand in the poisoning. While their ability to attack the Vale is limited, many of the Lords of the Vale could be persuaded to rebel against the the Lord Protector. I mean, several of them already did and only backed down when Littlefinger claimed the Crown would send troops to support him in a civil war (and other things).

So, to use Alayne as Sansa for any plan, he needs to know that Cersei will lose power in King's Landing. Oh, and Tywin. Tywin was still very much alive and in charge when he snatched Sansa. Tywin definitely would have thought Littlefinger a traitor if he had Sansa Stark on hand. Of course, Tywin died. Almost makes me believe Littlefinger knew he would. He wasn't that old, and Tyrion's escape was entirely mandated by Jaime who might just have easily been convinced Tyrion killed his son and deserved his fate. Even Tyrion would have merely fled if Jaime hadn't chosen that moment to confess Tywin and Jaime's duplicity regarding Tysha. Gives some credence to the Oberyn poisoning Tywin theory, though there is no evidence Littlefinger could have been a party to that. Except for Oberyn's admittance that he visited some brothels in King's Landing, and Littlefinger owns several brothels. Hmmm... I'm getting off topic here.

Anyways, Tywin's dead, and Cersei goes from being on her way back to Casterly Rock to wed some Westerlands lord or a cousin of Lannister, to being Queen Regent and de jure ruler of the Seven Kingdoms. Littlefinger correctly guessed this wouldn't last. Now, we know that the Kettleblacks were his agents from the start, there to serve and gain more influence and “access” in the court. Did Littlefinger leave any other agents to break the alliance? I'm about 50% sure Taena Merryweather was working with Littlefinger. The “scarred man” she lost her maidenhead to? Littlefinger has a terrible scar on his chest left from his duel with Brandon Stark. Taena quickly works to fuel the distrust between Cersei and the Tyrells in King's Landing, and helps her plan the scheme to frame Margaery for treason, e.g. sleeping with a Kettleblack. Succeed or fail, that plan could have killed the Tyrell-Lannister alliance which ironically secured Cersei's power. Admittedly, I think its almost as likely Taena works for Varys, but once it became clear that King's Landing would be in chaos or hands other than Cersei soon enough Petyr went ahead and set up his scheme to bring him the Vale.

In order for Littlefinger to be Lord Paramount of the Vale in his own right, instead of Lord Regent and Lord Protector for the heir presumptive, he needs three things, more or less.

1. Robert Arryn to be dead
   
2. Harold Hardyng to be dead
   
3. The support of Yohn Royce
   

Yikes. That is a tall order. It is worth pointing out that despite not holding his own army, Littlefinger has allies from the Lords Grafton, Corbray, Lynderly, and Nestor Royce. Lady Waynwood, Lord Belmore, and the Knight of the Nine Stars also showed up for Lyonel Corbray's wedding to a merchant's daughter, which was widely interpreted as a show of support of Littlefinger as Lord Protector. Still, none of these Lords would accept Littlefinger usurping the Vale of Arryn, even if they accept him as Lord Protector until Robert comes of age. Their very purpose and role in society is dictated on inheriting your ancestors' purpose and role in society. So, to have any shot of being the actual Lord Baelish of the Eyrie, he needs both Robert and Harold dead. At this point, the actual leadership would quickly splinter and civil war follow... unless the two biggest players can agree. Namely, Yohn Royce and Littlefinger.

Let me take a moment to point out that on the surface, no one wants Robert Arryn alive as much as Littlefinger. The moment Robert dies, Harold becomes the Lord of the Eyrie and the Vale of Arryn while Lady Waynwood becomes Lord Regent. Suddenly, the only place for Littlefinger in the Vale is back to his estate on the Fingers. Admittedly, Harold might already be a bought and paid for creature of Littlefinger through and through, but that seems unlikely.

So, Littlefinger needs to kill off the competition, avoid blame, and somehow get an intransigent enemy to support him. Which brings me to my really longshot theory, Purple Wedding 2.0.

At the end of the Feast for Crows, a drunk Littlefinger tells Sansa that the Merling King has returned from Braavos. He also lets her know he has arranged a betrothal for her to Harold Hardyng, the handsome, gallant, knight who happens to be Robert Arryn's legal heir. It is not clear that the remaining two daughters of Alys Arryn had any children, so I assume not. The plan is to reveal Alayne as Sansa Stark of Winterfell at the wedding in front of the entire nobility of the Vale, and ask that they pledge their swords to her cause of retaking Winterfell from presumably House Bolton.

Let me just point out that at some point Sansa will hear that “Arya Stark” is alive and married to Ramsay, and Littlefinger would have some awkward questions to answer should Sansa actually make it North and see her “sister.” So, more evidence that Littlefinger has no longterm plans for Sansa. Also, this plan doesn't seem to directly benefit Littlefinger. Sansa gets the Eyrie and Winterfell. What does Littlefinger get? To see his surrogate “Cat” happy? I don't buy it. He's had multiple chances to make Sansa a little happier and he avoids them.

After the vows comes a feast. Surely, even the somewhat isolated Vale has heard rumors that Sansa poisoned Joffrey, but such an innocent and young looking maid would almost be beyond reproach. Right up until the point Robert starts choking. Then, she's suspect number one. Suspect number two? The guy who gets to be Lord Paramount of the Vale should Robert Arryn die before having any children, Harold.

This is the part I suspect Littlefinger wants Sansa to play, to once again falsely accuse someone of a crime that Littlefinger actually committed, albeit through intermediaries. Even better, claim she and Hardyng did it together. Why would Sansa do so? For one, Littlefinger will convince her that Harold is actually guilty and thought the poison would be explained as Robert's shaking spells finally killing him. Hence, she would just be making evidence to convict the guilty party. Two, if she doesn't, she will be the patsy that Harold will blame, and her reputation from King's Landing nearly condemns her. Regardless, Hardyng hangs or flies with enough manufactured evidence that even Yohn Royce believes him guilty.

Still, why would these proud Lords let Littlefinger be Lord Paramount of the Vale instead of an older more established noble family? Assume King's Landing is utterly ineffectual at this point. There is something to be said for the “Tyrell approach,” that is letting the guy already running things continue to run things. Then, its just a matter of finding the right coin that bring Yohn Royce to Littlefinger, and I have a theory: Revenge on the Tyrells. In one of those coincidences you don't notice unless you do a re-read, Yohn Royce's second son became a member of Renly Baratheon's rainbow guard. Loras Tyrell killed him for failing to protect Renly. I do believe this murder will come up again sometime, might as well be here.

Now, Littlefinger just needs to find a princess, Shireen and Myrcella come to mind, marry her, make a deal with the Iron Bank and onward to King's Landing.

Or not. I know I'm bordering on fanfiction here and don't for a second think I've got it figured out. I haven't worked in who the “three queens” might be. I'm just trying to make sense of what exactly Littlefinger is planning, and assuming the worst. The one thing I am certain of is Sansa is in grave danger.

Note Bene: What I propose is Littlefinger's plan, not an actual prediction of events to come. Littlefinger might very well be overestimating the nobility of the Vale's ability to swallow a “lowborn” like Baelish ruling the Vale. Also, he might be underestimated Sansa. Superficially, he's offering Sansa exactly what she wants, Winterfell (she made a snow model of it) and a gallant, handsome, knightly husband. He's counting on that desire to blind her from his own motives until its to late. Or, the narrative goes a different direction entirely, such as Ser Shardich abducting Sansa to sell her back to King's Landing.

[Petyr Patter]

While I hate the principle of self bumping, I would like to generate some conversation.

So, let me pose a question.

Does anyone think Littlefinger actually has long-term plans where Sansa doesn't end up dead?

Littlefinger has been remarkable successful in isolating Sansa from any outside source or help, making her entirely reliant on is "good will." Yet, the isolation cannot last, especially if his plan to reveal her to all the Lords of the Vale is true. If Sansa ever blurts out that Lyn Corbray, for example, worked for Littlefinger during the parley, then suspicion alone would loose his "hidden dagger."

[RoamingRonin]

While I hate the principle of self bumping, I would like to generate some conversation.

No offense but if you want people to reply then maybe scale down your post or offer cliff notes at the bottom.

[noSer]

Great work you def put ur time in on it! Personally I've always viewed his relationship with Sansa in an unique way for LF. Whatever his intentions romantically I believe he has told her so much bc he is mentoring her to become him. Even a monster like LF grows weary of isolation and with Catelyn dead and Riverrun fallen the passion that drive him so high is gone. Sure, sticking it to the nobility in general will please him, you don't do what he's done without a more personal reason driving oneself. He's vanquished the personal demons. He's won. Is it crazy to think he may now desire a few basic human desires.

You may be right though. I only see two reasons to share so much with her. Either he is teaching her bc he knows no amount of scheming will allow him to rise higher so making Sansa top dog is his move, or he's teaching her just enough to elevate her then kill her and take what she had. My gut says option A but this can go either way like so many of these questions we obsess over endlessly lol

[Jon of the Dead]

Lots of interesting points regarding:

- Taena working for LF ever since he went to arrange the alliance with the Tyrells

- The posibility of Sansa finding out about (f)Arya

- Loras murder of Robar Royce to come back and bite him in the ass

Some things:

- LF's plans keep changing or adapting to the situation, but somewhere in his twisted mind there is a draft of his original plan and I'm pretty sure it includes marrying Sansa himself. Cersei recalls that he asked her for permission to marry Sansa, but Cersei refused him because of his low birth, so this had to be before he was named Lord Paramount.

- I don't think he plans on killing Sansa anytime soon. On the contrary, I think he wants to marry her. See, going by your plan and killing Harry just after he marries Sansa, gets LF nothing. With Harry and Robert dead, the Lords of the Vale will find someone else to rule the Vale, but never LF. As you said, he loses the Vale when Robert dies, and even if Sansa marries Harry, she inherits nothing...

So I think his plan is this:

- Step 1: Sansa marries Harry. No one gets poisoned...yet. Any potential child they have gets the North and the Vale.

- Step 2: Harry leads the armies of the Vale on a heroic crusade to scourge the North of the Bolton scum and win back Sansa's (and Sansa and Harry's potential child's) birtright. If Harry and his army runs into the evil little creature pretending to be Arya, he will dispose of her at once, without giving her a chance to talk (and who would believe her if she did?) And of course LF knows nothing about that...

- Step 3: LF is fueled and motivated by revenge. He got Winterfell and the Eyrie. There's no chance in hell he's not gonna get Riverrun as well. He has one last score to settle: Edmure, the guy who actually came up with his nickname. How poetic that Edmure would be the last one. Somehow Petyr will get rid of Edmure and his child, and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets rid of the Freys in the process (they not only constitute a menace for his dominion over the Riverlands, but they killed Cat (love!) or deprived him of the opportunity of taking revenge on Cat for rejecting him (spite!).

- Step 4: So now Harry and Sansa's new baby boy or girl is the heir of Winterfell, the Eyrie, and Riverrun. In short, the single most powerful person in the 7K. LF, I think, doesn't want direct power, he knows it's risky, so he wants to be in the shadows, with a firm grasp on that power.

How?

- Step 5: Killing Harry, marrying Sansa, being the Lord Protector, Lord Regent, and surrogate father of the single most powerful person in the 7K. That boy or girl will grow up seeing LF as a father.

- Step 6: What does one do with the armies of 3 kingdoms? I'm not saying immediately, but eventually, one invades.

So, LF will get what he wanted since the very start: to be married to Sansa. But now he'll be married to Sansa, and be the Lord Protector/Regent/Stepfather of North, Vale, Riverlands and any other kingdom he wants to invade. Not too shabby.

But needless to say, this plan will fail espectacularly

[Ahura Mazda]

Note Bene: ...

You meant "Nota Bene:", right? :laugh:

In my humble opinion, Littlefinger is too much of a fictional character to pretend he can be viewed as a real world one. He is just like the omniscient fictional investigators, like for example Sherlok Holmes, who just happen to notice the right details at the right moment and make always the right deduction just in time to strike the guilty guy before he commits another crime, flees away or throws away the murder weapon. In other words, he is somewhat like a Deus Ex Machina, a tool to make the plot progress on.. ..if you look closely LF has been there almost every time something relevant happens to determine the destiny of other characters.

He is certainly depicted as a cunning character, recklessly lying to achieve his goals.. only that his goals are not clear at all, and I bet that those are not clear to him as well.. ..unless he plans to accumulate gold, get famous, do something infamous but legendary and then flee for some free city with his whole wealth.

What really troubles me is that most of his lies so far have moved people exactly how he expected/wished them to, even when he was apparently pressed on by the situation and had to lie on the moment..like for example when he told Cat about the dagger's wrong story. Things could have gone in a dozen different ways and probably would, if by chance Tyrion wouldn't have been in the wrong place at the wrong moment. Even his most thought plans to me appear too much of a risky gamble than certainty.

This capability does not mirror my experience in real life. Whereas it is fairly easy to start postulate around other's behaviour, predicting it and even act as a puppet master, it always turns out that predictions are imprecise and must always account for failure, puppets are not so controllable and other character's behaviour not foreseeable as well.

So imho he will die without us being given a proper explanation of his behaviour, though he will certainly complain about loosing power.

[Petyr Patter]

You meant "Nota Bene:", right? :laugh:

Probably. Yeah, definitely. I think I used the French instead of the Latin. Though to truly use that defense, I should have made the second word "bien."

In my humble opinion, Littlefinger is too much of a fictional character to pretend he can be viewed as a real world one. He is just like the omniscient fictional investigators, like for example Sherlok Holmes, who just happen to notice the right details at the right moment and make always the right deduction just in time to strike the guilty guy before he commits another crime, flees away or throws away the murder weapon. In other words, he is somewhat like a Deus Ex Machina, a tool to make the plot progress on.. ..if you look closely LF has been there almost every time something relevant happens to determine the destiny of other characters.

He is certainly depicted as a cunning character, recklessly lying to achieve his goals.. only that his goals are not clear at all, and I bet that those are not clear to him as well.. ..unless he plans to accumulate gold, get famous, do something infamous but legendary and then flee for some free city with his whole wealth.

What really troubles me is that most of his lies so far have moved people exactly how he expected/wished them to, even when he was apparently pressed on by the situation and had to lie on the moment..like for example when he told Cat about the dagger's wrong story. Things could have gone in a dozen different ways and probably would, if by chance Tyrion wouldn't have been in the wrong place at the wrong moment. Even his most thought plans to me appear too much of a risky gamble than certainty.

This capability does not mirror my experience in real life. Whereas it is fairly easy to start postulate around other's behaviour, predicting it and even act as a puppet master, it always turns out that predictions are imprecise and must always account for failure, puppets are not so controllable and other character's behaviour not foreseeable as well.

So imho he will die without us being given a proper explanation of his behaviour, though he will certainly complain about loosing power.

Don't you mean "Behavior"? :)

I definitely see Baelish as benefiting from deus ex machina. Still, he does seem to benefit from being off script despite all the preparations he makes.

No offense but if you want people to reply then maybe scale down your post or offer cliff notes at the bottom.

Eh, there is a place for short posts, and I realize the longer length means many won't bother. Yet, there is also a place for longer write ups, and some very long posts have spurred lengthy discussions. Those who do read it, have more to discuss!

Great work you def put ur time in on it! Personally I've always viewed his relationship with Sansa in an unique way for LF. Whatever his intentions romantically I believe he has told her so much bc he is mentoring her to become him. Even a monster like LF grows weary of isolation and with Catelyn dead and Riverrun fallen the passion that drive him so high is gone. Sure, sticking it to the nobility in general will please him, you don't do what he's done without a more personal reason driving oneself. He's vanquished the personal demons. He's won. Is it crazy to think he may now desire a few basic human desires.

You may be right though. I only see two reasons to share so much with her. Either he is teaching her bc he knows no amount of scheming will allow him to rise higher so making Sansa top dog is his move, or he's teaching her just enough to elevate her then kill her and take what she had. My gut says option A but this can go either way like so many of these questions we obsess over endlessly lol

You give me an opportunity to touch upon a theme I decided to skip in my already long initial post. Namely, Littlefinger has two divergent opinions regarding Sansa.

He has withheld several strategic truths from her, and has told her some outright lies. Combined with the lies he asks her tell add up to a tightly controlled manipulation. If he truly wanted Sansa, he could have started wooing her the moment she got on board the Merling King. Profess his love, shower her with gifts, etc., etc. Would it have worked? Maybe, Sansa is desperate for a friend, protector, and yes, husband. Instead, he picks a cover and a motivation that strongly frames their relationship as one of daughter/father, which is anathema to lover/spouse. Why not have her pose as a maid he picked up in King's Landing? Or a distant cousin? Or, why not have her take the identity of Jeyne Poole to complete the switch? He is already known to have harbored the girl, and it would explain Sansa's Northern upbringing. He also feeds her the exact same lie he told Eddard (and I paraphrase), "for the fondess/love I had for Catelyn, I will help you out." Well, we know how it turned out the first time.

Then the Winterfell snow castle happened. There is what Littlefinger wants and plans, and that fact he is ultimately attracted to Sansa. Kissing her while she built the snow castle was an impromptu move that endangered everything you worked for in the Eyrie. His attraction led him to do something that he didn't plan on doing. Lysa could have thrown Sansa down the Moon door without hesitation, or could have pinned the blame on Baelish and order him gone for the Eyrie. The fact everything worked out for him was a stroke of luck combined with quick thinking. When Littlefinger shows up drunk to let Sansa know of the betrothal, he is drinking to make going through with his plans which will ultimately kill Sansa easier.

Or not. Maybe Patroclo has it right and Littlefinger just does random things to move the plot wherever needed.

[Ted Chang]

LF needs Sansa alive only as long as he nees her to further his dreams of power. He cannot have her for himself now, because he's marketed her as his child. He may want some short-term gratification but that would be all he could get. No question where LF's motivations lie. I'm pretty sure he's pictured himself on the Iron Throne a few times. I rather think though that all his plans will be scuppered by Tyrion. Why so? Not really anything rock solid to go on at all except I have for some time been convinced that the great love story in this saga is Tyrion and Sansa. Why? No idea. Gut instinct. In his own excellent way GRRM has put them through the traditional hate-each-other phase, but I don't think that will last, and I think when Tyrion finds out about Sansa he will go to her rescue and LF won't see it coming because Tyrion isn't on his radar. Every step of the way people have underestimated Tyriion and to date they have all suffered for it. I always go back to when varys talked about a smmall man casting a big shadow (sic). For me that was the big signpost across the first five books. Of course I could well be barking up the wrong tree, but what fun it is to bark a bit sometimes.

[The Fourth Head]

I can see a situation in which Sansa is allowed to live. That LF gets collateral on her which ensures her silence.

There has been a clear trend of seduction/trust building going on with LF and Sansa- he told Sansa that a woman is often far happier with an older man as a blend of experience and youth make for a good combination. Why would he tell her this if he wasn't referring to himself, but rather, to then have her married to Harry or Robert? Then there was the effort to convince Sansa that he only ever loved her mother- surely a method designed to endear himself to her. He tells Sansa that to make a lie believable, you have to live it. This is the lie I think he is drawing from experience- he has used it twice now for his benefit- to trick Eddard into trusting him with dire consequences (Eddard explicitly thinks that LF wouldn't betray him due to his love for Cat), and now Sansa into believing he is a true romantic at heart.

I think he plans to seduce Sansa and give her his illegitimate child- passing it off as Harry's. No way would Sansa want that to be common knowledge as it could endanger her life/the life of her child. It would be Lysa MK 2, the revenge story. I also think he will use her to remove Robert too with poison- again, more collateral to ensure her silence. Should Harry marry Sansa, get drunk on his wedding night, and then ride off to war the next day, it will provide LF/Sansa's child with a smokescreen of legitimacy. Should Harry then die in battle (so very, very possible) Sansa's child would be sufficient to ensure she was recognised as the rightful Lady of the Vale, and mother of the trueborn heir.

Sansa's child could also be passed off as the rightful heir to WF/Riverrun which could give LF untold levels of perverse pleasure as it would be his illegitimate child they would all be fighting to honour, without knowing it. With the North/Riverlands/Vale behind her, Sansa could eventually win the IT outright after Dorne/The Golden Company/the Tyrrells destroy eachother. With collateral on Sansa, and with Sansa the most powerful woman in the realm, and mother to his child, LF could then marry Sansa and be Lord Hand Regent to his own son (cough, Harry and Sansa's, cough)

[Ahura Mazda]

Don't you mean "Behavior"? :)

I definitely see Baelish as benefiting from deus ex machina. Still, he does seem to benefit from being off script despite all the preparations he makes.

Uhm, I don't know if it is right.. the dictionary shows both forms: http://www.wordreference.com/definition/behaviour

Uh, now I've seen why you posted this.. Didn't know French people used it.. I gave you the Italian one. Thank you for the info!

[Petyr Patter]

I had some more thoughts on Baelish, specifically the Merling King.

This is the boat that shipped Sansa and Littlefinger from King's Landing to the Fingers, and then departed to Braavos. Littlefinger mentions its return in Sansa's last chapter in Feast for Crows, claiming its captain had interesting news. A lot of readers believe this news relates to Danaerys, and Baelish is making plans for her return. While I have no doubt there is some news regarding a Targaryen queen in Slaver's bay, most of that news is going to be gossip, suggest she is doomed due to a vast alliance building against her, and nowhere near ready to move to Westeros. In short, interesting developments to pay attention to, but nothing remotely ready to plan around. Consider what information Tyrion learns while around Volantis and how inaccurate it is compared to what we know is going on. And Volantis is much closer than Braavos.

However, Braavos is the home city of the Iron Bank. The same Iron Bank Littlefinger borrowed money from, probably has deposited some of his own funds with, and is probably has a very good relationship with them. Braavos also maintains contact with both the Wall and White Harbor. Braavos just rescued a boat of wildlings taken from Hardhome to be enslaved further south.

Yet, probably the most important thing he learned was the Iron Bank's plan to offer Stannis an unlimited loan. Jon Snow thought this alone could win the war for Stannis. Probably overly optimistic. Yet, Littlefinger sees an opportunity. I will continue to believe he is entirely motivated by his pursuit of greater and greater influence and power represented by titles and wealth. And while the Iron Bank backing a man that wants to hang him normally would be bad, it opens up a new path to power for him, Shireen. The Iron Bank might rescind its offer should Stannis fall as a young girl is no warleader. Ah, but if Littlefinger gets a hold of her, possibly by sending the Merling King to Eastwatch to "rescue" a Selyse and Shireen fleeing from Bolton men, then Iron Bank would be willing to fund Shireen as they have a degree of trust in Littlefinger and his ability to repay their loans. Perhaps Littlefinger will marry her, perhaps he would just declare himself her guardian. Either way, he would have a great deal of power, and if he can take King's Landing, he would have hostages to make most the Reach bend the knee (Magaery, Redwyne twins, etc.).

We don't know how much intelligence Littlefinger has on the North, but if he knows the Karstark has declared for Stannis, then he might know enough to smell a trap, as he knows how Bolton operates. He also knows Stannis is probably doomed even with the Karstarks, because White Harbor bent the knee and executed Davos. So, it is a reasonable bet that Stannis will die, and in fact the Wall just received information stating that Stannis is dead, while it might be forged it might also be true. Still, in order to actually challenge King's Landing, Littlefinger needs more the mercenaries. He needs the Vale soundly behind him. Hence, why he appears to be marrying off Sansa in a scheme that benefits him not at all. Because its a trap.

[Pod The Impaler]

In order for Littlefinger to be Lord Paramount of the Vale in his own right, instead of Lord Regent and Lord Protector for the heir presumptive, he needs three things, more or less.

1. Robert Arryn to be dead
2. Harold Hardyng to be dead
3. The support of Yohn Royce

Yikes. That is a tall order. It is worth pointing out that despite not holding his own army, Littlefinger has allies from the Lords Grafton, Corbray, Lynderly, and Nestor Royce. Lady Waynwood, Lord Belmore, and the Knight of the Nine Stars also showed up for Lyonel Corbray's wedding to a merchant's daughter, which was widely interpreted as a show of support of Littlefinger as Lord Protector. Still, none of these Lords would accept Littlefinger usurping the Vale of Arryn, even if they accept him as Lord Protector until Robert comes of age. Their very purpose and role in society is dictated on inheriting your ancestors' purpose and role in society. So, to have any shot of being the actual Lord Baelish of the Eyrie, he needs both Robert and Harold dead. At this point, the actual leadership would quickly splinter and civil war follow... unless the two biggest players can agree. Namely, Yohn Royce and Littlefinger.

Let me take a moment to point out that on the surface, no one wants Robert Arryn alive as much as Littlefinger. The moment Robert dies, Harold becomes the Lord of the Eyrie and the Vale of Arryn while Lady Waynwood becomes Lord Regent. Suddenly, the only place for Littlefinger in the Vale is back to his estate on the Fingers. Admittedly, Harold might already be a bought and paid for creature of Littlefinger through and through, but that seems unlikely.

Some things:

- LF's plans keep changing or adapting to the situation, but somewhere in his twisted mind there is a draft of his original plan and I'm pretty sure it includes marrying Sansa himself. Cersei recalls that he asked her for permission to marry Sansa, but Cersei refused him because of his low birth, so this had to be before he was named Lord Paramount.

- I don't think he plans on killing Sansa anytime soon. On the contrary, I think he wants to marry her. See, going by your plan and killing Harry just after he marries Sansa, gets LF nothing. With Harry and Robert dead, the Lords of the Vale will find someone else to rule the Vale, but never LF. As you said, he loses the Vale when Robert dies, and even if Sansa marries Harry, she inherits nothing...

I tend to agree with this latter theory, but let me add one crackpot idea that may enable Baelish to actually inherit the seat of the Arryns if Sweetrobin and Harry both died:

Perhaps Petyr Baelish is also (distantly) an Arryn - a Gulltown Arryn.

Littlefinger does brag that he is well loved in Gulltown. He is a top-tier merchant, and had control of the customs in Gulltown before becoming Master of Coin. His Baelish family originates in Braavos, and as a result, despite being a few generations established in the Vale, is considered "thin" when it comes to Westerosi highborn blood. However, we do not know who Littlefinger's mother was.

What we know about House Arryn of Gulltown is this: they are a cadet branch of the Arryns. They chose to marry merchants and as a result are quite wealthy. However, they are not talked about, and considered uncouth.

Normally, a cadet branch such as this would be of little consequence, but as we can see from Littlefinger explaining the Arryn limeage to Sansa, the primary House Arryn is really down to the last dregs - Harry is a Hardyng, really, not even carrying the Arryn name. Therefore, if the main line of Arryns should fail utterly, with both Sweetrobin and Harry dying without issue, who would be the next to rule the Vale ?

Petyr Baelish does have the political power and wealth to unite the Vale behind him, except as you say, the Vale lords are proud and would not want him to rule the Vale. However, which one of them would it be? They would bleed the Vale dry if they fought a war to see which house would replace the Arryns as the new ruling house of the Vale. If it came to a war, Littlefinger - as also Lord Paramount of the Trident and allies such as the Lannisters of Tyrells - might even beat them and then they are truly lost. So at this point, if Littlefinger played the trump card of having Gulltown Arryn blood, they might say "well, that will have to be good enough" and back him as the new leader, just to avoid a civil war in the Vale.

There is a precedent for it: King Robert Baratheon - his lineage did include a small amount of Targaryen blood. This was played up by some as an excuse for some royalist lords to lay down their arms to him, though in actual fact he won purely by conquest and ruled as a Baratheon.

So, if Baelish has some Gulltown Arryn blood, the best time to set off this plan might be after Sansa has wed Harry the Heir, but before she conceives / bears any children. She reveals herself as highborn (or not ), she gains the marriage name - which might be proclaimed as "Arryn" for poltical purposes. Then Harry dies, and Sansa the widow soon becomes betrothed and married to Petyr Baelish. She has the Stark and Tully blood, she has the Arryn name. The Lord Protector of the Vale and Lord Paramount of the Trident can now reveal his own Arryn blood, and by marrying her match the Arryn blood on his side to the Arryn name through her. House Arryn is reborn through their marriage and the Vale lords accept this solution. Littlefinger gains his beautiful red haired bride, gains conquest over all those houses who cast him down, and by having children with Sansa, makes his house into something powerful and permanent.

[joluoto2]

LF's strength is the ability to change plans when needed and grasp opportunities when they present themselves. Even if this is his plan now, he might change his mind if another opportunity suddenly present itself.

[ache]

I agree with a lot of what the OP said regarding Littlefinger. I too think that dead Sansa might be in his plans, how many people who knew of his betrayals are still alive? I don't know what his game is, or even if he really has one, he may just be one of those people who gets off on being the cleverest, the one nobody can ever take down. I would like to note down a few of my thoughts about him though, even though I can't say what his endgame might be.

I don't believe he ever loved Catelyn. I think his pursuit of her was all about him trying to rise above his station, and I don't believe Littlefinger is capable of loving anyone but himself. I do however think he uses the story of his unrequited love to further his own ends. I think in a time and place where marriages are arranged for gain, Littlefinger loudly and endlessly whining about his lost one true love makes him seem a little weak and pathetic. All the better for the high born and powerful men surrounding him to not see him as a threat, maybe even as a bit of a joke. It helps his game so much if nobody is ever looking at him as a man to be reckoned with.

Then we have Lysa. He knew her. He knew that she was obsessed with him. Lysa carried a torch for him for at least fifteen years. It seems as though she might have been one of those people who want something so much more if she's told she can't have it, especially when it was offered freely to her sister. Sansa at one point thinks of Lysa's jealousy over Marillion paying attention to her. Has Littlefinger played on this from the beginning? Did he cry on Lysa's shoulder about how he believed Cat when she led him on, only to find out she was toying with him, then allow himself to be "seduced" by Lysa? Cat remembers him as a sly child who could always get out of trouble by using his "contrite" face. I think he tried to get Cat one way and when that didn't work, he tried a different tack with Lysa but Hoster stepped in. Lysa was always his backup plan, he likes those. I don't think the first kiss with Sansa was an impromptu thing. I think he knew Lysa was watching. He also knows from experience that she will blame the woman involved, never her darling Petyr, because that's what she wants to believe. I wouldn't put it past him to have jokingly made some comment about Sansa being sweet on him to get Lysa's guard up. So, she reacts as he knows she will, he gets to kill her like I daresay he was planning to, Sansa feels indebted to him because it was all for her and so backs up his story about Marillion.

I have posted elsewhere about how I think the snow castle he helps Sansa build symbolises his empty promises to her. I don't think any of the plans he is sharing with her are actual things he intends to do.

but I did leave out the part where the head is jammed on a spike only after the "gatehouse is smashed" because...eeewwww

I don't believe Sansa is his weakness. He plans on screwing her over just as he does everyone else. I think the only real weakness he has is his unshakeable belief in his own superiority. I think it will be his own arrogance that brings him down.

[Fanless Mace]

LF's motivation is and always has been to prove to Catlyn that he was worthy of her love, despite her spurning him. Sansa is his only route to achieving any sense of victory. I have no doubt that his ultimate goal is to fuck Sansa, shout "Oh Catlyn" when he cums, and father a boy who will rule Westros. Easy.

Except..LF is also a psychopath, and he'd kill Sansa in a second if indeed she becomes a real threat in his eyes. Question is, does his passion and obsession for Catlyn/Sansa (I won't call it "love") outweigh his megalomania?

I think we will get a great and terrifying scene in the final book where this plays out...but my money is on Sansa killing LF, or perhaps Sweetrobin does it for her.

[The Iron Banker]

Lots of interesting points regarding:

- Taena working for LF ever since he went to arrange the alliance with the Tyrells

- The posibility of Sansa finding out about (f)Arya

- Loras murder of Robar Royce to come back and bite him in the ass

Some things:

- LF's plans keep changing or adapting to the situation, but somewhere in his twisted mind there is a draft of his original plan and I'm pretty sure it includes marrying Sansa himself. Cersei recalls that he asked her for permission to marry Sansa, but Cersei refused him because of his low birth, so this had to be before he was named Lord Paramount.

- I don't think he plans on killing Sansa anytime soon. On the contrary, I think he wants to marry her. See, going by your plan and killing Harry just after he marries Sansa, gets LF nothing. With Harry and Robert dead, the Lords of the Vale will find someone else to rule the Vale, but never LF. As you said, he loses the Vale when Robert dies, and even if Sansa marries Harry, she inherits nothing...

So I think his plan is this:

- Step 1: Sansa marries Harry. No one gets poisoned...yet. Any potential child they have gets the North and the Vale.

- Step 2: Harry leads the armies of the Vale on a heroic crusade to scourge the North of the Bolton scum and win back Sansa's (and Sansa and Harry's potential child's) birtright. If Harry and his army runs into the evil little creature pretending to be Arya, he will dispose of her at once, without giving her a chance to talk (and who would believe her if she did?) And of course LF knows nothing about that...

- Step 3: LF is fueled and motivated by revenge. He got Winterfell and the Eyrie. There's no chance in hell he's not gonna get Riverrun as well. He has one last score to settle: Edmure, the guy who actually came up with his nickname. How poetic that Edmure would be the last one. Somehow Petyr will get rid of Edmure and his child, and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets rid of the Freys in the process (they not only constitute a menace for his dominion over the Riverlands, but they killed Cat (love!) or deprived him of the opportunity of taking revenge on Cat for rejecting him (spite!).

- Step 4: So now Harry and Sansa's new baby boy or girl is the heir of Winterfell, the Eyrie, and Riverrun. In short, the single most powerful person in the 7K. LF, I think, doesn't want direct power, he knows it's risky, so he wants to be in the shadows, with a firm grasp on that power.

How?

- Step 5: Killing Harry, marrying Sansa, being the Lord Protector, Lord Regent, and surrogate father of the single most powerful person in the 7K. That boy or girl will grow up seeing LF as a father.

- Step 6: What does one do with the armies of 3 kingdoms? I'm not saying immediately, but eventually, one invades.

So, LF will get what he wanted since the very start: to be married to Sansa. But now he'll be married to Sansa, and be the Lord Protector/Regent/Stepfather of North, Vale, Riverlands and any other kingdom he wants to invade. Not too shabby.

But needless to say, this plan will fail espectacularly

sounds plausible

[Petyr Patter]

I tend to agree with this latter theory, but let me add one crackpot idea that may enable Baelish to actually inherit the seat of the Arryns if Sweetrobin and Harry both died:

Perhaps Petyr Baelish is also (distantly) an Arryn - a Gulltown Arryn.

If this is true, it would almost have to be on the maternal side, as we know nothing of Baelish's mother, but do know his father's father was a Braavosi sellsword. Also, I would think somebody would have brought it up by now.

I agree with a lot of what the OP said regarding Littlefinger. I too think that dead Sansa might be in his plans, how many people who knew of his betrayals are still alive? I don't know what his game is, or even if he really has one, he may just be one of those people who gets off on being the cleverest, the one nobody can ever take down. I would like to note down a few of my thoughts about him though, even though I can't say what his endgame might be.

...

I don't believe Sansa is his weakness. He plans on screwing her over just as he does everyone else. I think the only real weakness he has is his unshakeable belief in his own superiority. I think it will be his own arrogance that brings him down.

I don't entirely agree. I think he really did love Catelyn. Of course, unlike most young crushes, it didn't fade, it turned ugly. I think that is sort of his internal problem regarding Sansa. He has an entirely unhealthy crush on her, which is not part of his plans. Hence, the getting drunk when he talks about her upcoming wedding.

LF's motivation is and always has been to prove to Catlyn that he was worthy of her love, despite her spurning him. Sansa is his only route to achieving any sense of victory. I have no doubt that his ultimate goal is to fuck Sansa, shout "Oh Catlyn" when he cums, and father a boy who will rule Westros. Easy.

Except..LF is also a psychopath, and he'd kill Sansa in a second if indeed she becomes a real threat in his eyes. Question is, does his passion and obsession for Catlyn/Sansa (I won't call it "love") outweigh his megalomania?

I think we will get a great and terrifying scene in the final book where this plays out...but my money is on Sansa killing LF, or perhaps Sweetrobin does it for her.

I don't think so, for reasons stated above. If he wanted Sansa sexually/romantically, he should have wooed her. Instead, he plays this game where she's my daughter, be a good little daughter, give your father a kiss. The game started when she was building her model of Winterfell, where before he was just holding her as a game piece.

Or not, Littlefinger is a hard one to figure out.

[Fanless Mace]

Or not, Littlefinger is a hard one to figure out.

I don't think his lust is necissarily on the surface. But I sense he feels for her 'neath his jerkins. He's a man obsessed, and she's the closest thing to Catlyn he'll ever get. He even killed off the previous Catlyn doppleganger when he had a firm grasp on Sansa in the Vale. I think if anything he is stifled by the very fact that Sansa IS Catlyn's daughter; something feels weird about that sort of relationship even to LF.

Or not...damn, he IS hard to figure out.

[Mithras]

Appreciate the effort but no.

LF could easily kill Sansa along with Dontos. Why did he run into the trouble of taking her to Vale?

[Thucydides]

LF does have substantial leverage over Sansa; namely, the hairnet that Sansa wore transported the poison that killed Joffrey.

Sansa not only relies on LF to keep her safe from those who are currently searching for her as a fugitive after the Purple Wedding. She must keep him happy in order to keep him from spilling beans about the fact that she wore the hairnet that carried the poison.

In any event, he doesn't have to kill Sansa herself. He can just hand her over and spill the beans about her hairnet holding Joffrey's poison. Ilyn Payne will do the rest.