Bad News Baelish, or Purple Wedding 2.0?

[jentario]

Interesting points, but I don't think Littlefinger can go through with killing Sansa, even if he plans to.

[John Hulboy]

well done even though its a crazy idea I say well done..great topic an now im glued to my computer .the game of thrones is being played by littlefinger for littlefinger..he wants it all ..I hate him in the books but on show actor plays him perfect in my mind..cant wait to find out where he is going.2.o massacre is possible with every wedding that happens in the land in my mind.the red wedding shocked me.the freys gotta go littlefinger wipes out freys he gets lots of kudos..anything can happen..i think his thing WITH SANSA IS ULTIMITELY HOW HE MEETS HIS END.love to see Robert say make him fly would be classic.lol I think by time you hear about royces son the tyrells will come begging for vale support to save his kingdom. I believe danny will land in vale so whose side will he be on for 2nd DOD? the man definitely holds a grudge .tully crushed as a house.ned and winterfell destroyed north in chaos .an if he kills Robert who ma`y be his son house arryn all but done for..and on an on dontos etc.littlefinger has caused major devastation on his enemies.he will pay sooner or later with his life.i don't see him killing sansa tho..he might rape her which im dreading.i think he would have had to deal with tywin had he survived.but he is dead an lf is rising ..I got a lot too say about lf lol.great topic

[Mad Monkey]

LF does have substantial leverage over Sansa; namely, the hairnet that Sansa wore transported the poison that killed Joffrey.

Sansa not only relies on LF to keep her safe from those who are currently searching for her as a fugitive after the Purple Wedding. She must keep him happy in order to keep him from spilling beans about the fact that she wore the hairnet that carried the poison.

In any event, he doesn't have to kill Sansa herself. He can just hand her over and spill the beans about her hairnet holding Joffrey's poison. Ilyn Payne will do the rest.

To be fair, he could do that even if he didn't have the hairnet, or even if Sansa never touched the hairnet. Westeros isn't exactly big on chain of custody; LF could probably produce a receipt showing that Sansa bought the Strangler, or some coins from Highgarden that he found in her stuff, or any transparent horseshit he wants if he wants to frame her. It's not like anyone would question it.

[Thucydides]

To be fair, he could do that even if he didn't have the hairnet, or even if Sansa never touched the hairnet. Westeros isn't exactly big on chain of custody; LF could probably produce a receipt showing that Sansa bought the Strangler, or some coins from Highgarden that he found in her stuff, or any transparent horseshit he wants if he wants to frame her. It's not like anyone would question it.

That's a good point. I do think that LF maintains a certain psychological hold over her with an unspoken threat by virtue of his involvement of her in the plot.

I think that at some point, she'll have a sudden realization of this fact, and she'll revert to "polite Sansa" whenever she's around LF.

[Petyr Patter]

Appreciate the effort but no.

LF could easily kill Sansa along with Dontos. Why did he run into the trouble of taking her to Vale?

Bumping my thread because I never answered this one.

Actually, I sort of answered the same thing in the thread, which I will certainly forgive someone for not reading. It is kind of long. I should probably bold key phrases or something.

Simply put, I think he has a plan that uses Sansa Stark. Such as framing her or Harold Hardyng for the murder of Robert Arryn. In the interim, Sansa is entirely in his control and willingly does pretty much whatever he tells her. Meaning, no point in killing her now, because she might be useful in the future.

Another possibilty is a repeat of Eddard's time in King's Landing, which ended with Littlefinger holding a knife that was used in an assination attempt on his son at Eddard's throat. There is something personal about that. Perhaps his interest in Sansa is not about replacing a lost love, but rather finding a suitable surrogate for his revenge. As such, when he kills Sansa, he needs her to know exactly who is responsible, exactly how he beat her, and wants her to feel absolutely inferior to him at that moment.

[Lord_Tyrell]

Not reading all of that, but Sansa is much too important of a piece for him to kill. It can be easily argued that he killed all those people so he could get Sansa for himself and not have anyone fuck it up for him. I do think Sansa is in danger with Littlefinger in a potentially abusive and rape sort of way, but not in mortal danger around him.

[The Mother of The Others]

On the otherhand, Sansa isn't dead yet. To know why, you have to know Littlefinger's goals. I don't know Littlefinger's goals. Power? Revenge? To play the game of thrones for the love of the game? Love?

She has the confidence of the conman. Which means she's been brought in as a partner in his dark con of the world. She may have brought herself into his circle of trust by being his kryptonite, the one he couldn't ignore, brush off, or treat as a mark. So over time he had to let her inside due to her close proximity making his designs gradually apparent to her anyway. So it would have become exceedingly silly to keep lying to her about not eating the candy bar she can see him eating, basically. Might as well make her partner. Also, you can't kill all of your human assets or you'd lose your momentum as a player like when the wind goes out of a ship's sails and it comes to a dead stop on a calm sea. You've got to preserve some people for future use. When it's time for him to swing to another vine like a political tarzan, these people can be traded for goods and services, or used as that vine. I think she's non-expendable, though. You don't bring someone in and then betray them after they know your inner sanctum secrets. You decide in advance not to tell them this kind of stuff if you plan on maybe betraying them. Once you bring her in, it's to make her your sith apprentice, meaning the choice has already been made to treat her "well," and not as fodder for your advancement.

I can hear you saying how Lyssa was also deep in his confidence at one point and look how he did her. Well, true, but remember in There's Something About Mary when the old geezer guy admitted at the end he's stayed with his old wife in that house all these years just so he could be close to Mary? I think Lyssa was a layover stop for Pete, never thought of as a destination. She was closer to having Catelyn than nothing, but she wasn't close enough, so Lysa was basically a vine to swing on. Whereas, in everyone's estimation, Sansa IS close enough to possessing Catelyn II that Pete probably feels like he's arrived at a worthy destination by rooming with her, and he's ready to cash out and collect his winnings.

Now she may still be the prize winning calf, his specially groomed sacrifice that'll somehow cement his ascendance when he trades her in. But it would have to be something like that, because he's not going to sell her cheap. And I think he may now have trouble selling her at all. He's grown an achilles heal in the form of this new weakness of caring enough about someone that he may hold on to her even if it becomes dangerous instead of letting her go when he'd usually let go of things to save himself. Whoever is coming to "rescue" Sansa would be the one to exploit this weakness, earning themself a shot at Petyr when he exposes himself to risk to keep Alayne his. I personally don't want to see Sansa rescued and returned to a bleak home up north. I want to see her choose a more interesting life by staying in the con game, turning it real (honest/well-intentioned), and thriving at it.

[Petyr Patter]

Not reading all of that, but Sansa is much too important of a piece for him to kill. It can be easily argued that he killed all those people so he could get Sansa for himself and not have anyone fuck it up for him. I do think Sansa is in danger with Littlefinger in a potentially abusive and rape sort of way, but not in mortal danger around him.

"...even the humblest pieces can have wills of their own."

Two things I would argue against. First, that Sansa is a valuable piece. On paper she is heir to Winterfell, but that only works with an army to take it away from the Boltons, or the Greyjoys, or Stannis. All three groups would gladly kill her to keep her from taking the fortress back. Even otherwise sympathetic Northern Lords would be very weary of kneeling to a Sansa who appears as a pawn for another hated Lord. "Arya" didn't stop the Mormonts from joining Stannis. Admittedly, Baelish did actually have a plan that would give Sansa an army to reclaim Wintefell. However, it only works if A) she marries Harold Hardyng, and B) he becomes Lord Paramount of the Vale. I don't buy that plan since I don't see where Baelish gets his payday. However, Sansa remains a 'poisoned prize.' Mace Tyrell thinks she was complicit in a plan to poison his daughter. She is still wed to perhaps the most hated Lannister of all. Roose knows Sansa represents a longterm strategic problem to claiming the North. The Freys might also see her as a challenge to their control of Riverrun, as Genna Lannister spelled out.

Second, I would argue against Sansa being a "piece." Or, if she is a piece, it is not a piece that Baelish can rely on in the longterm. Baelish betrayed her father, quite possibly convinced Joffrey to call for his head, put her childhood companion into a brothel, and pretty much framed her for Joffrey's murder. Furthermore, she overheard heard Aunt Lysa confess to blaming the Lannisters for Jon Arryn's murder, precipitating the entire war to begin with. For the time being, Sansa hasn't put all this together, and even if she has, she still feels trapped with no where to go. Yet, Littlefinger has to realize he has an unstable "piece" on his hands that given enough time will realize she should hate him, and if put into a place of power would move against him.

Combine these two things together, and her value as a "piece" is very situational. If you reread the timing of Dontos's first meeting in the godswood in Clash of Kings, it comes once Baelish believes he is going to the Vale to arrange a marriage between Myrcella and Robert. This was when Robb was still alive and had the upper hand over Tywin Lannister in the Riverlands. I think he kept the plan intact despite the many political changes, because, well, why not? Or, maybe he's obsessed.

[mediterraneo]

I really like the idea that Baelish could want to get rid of Sansa at some point, but for the moment I think he needs her, not necessarily for something puntual or specifical. She is a useful, potentially powerful tool, and a good card to stay in his hand, and to be used to hide his real intentions and capacities.
Wanting to marry a daughter to Harry the Heir is something the Vale's leaders can understand and respect in a way: multi-generational family enhancement, not self-promotion. To make his family become true lords even from a subordinate (feminine and nameless) position.
When he finally does his move (whenever it is) it will genuinely appear as a defeat for him, something he "must accept because of the circumstances", and they will not object to it.
Also, Sansa knows things that can endanger other people too. And being in need and "wanted" by the realm's official law she is easily manipulable. Or at least Baelish can think so.
He needs her trust. So he needs a lie to tell her, in which she is safe with him. And he told her a story that is in a way believable.
The OP scenario is very well thought.

[Pod The Impaler]

I do not think Baelish intends to kill Sansa - I think he wants to marry her and make a handful of baby Littlefingers - but if he had to throw her under a bus wheelhouse to save his own skin, he probably would.

[Mithras]

I think LF wants to be the king consort of Sansa over a united kingdom of North, Vale and Riverlands. The rest is not worth having. So he wants Sansa alive until producing heirs from her.

[Sans A Stark in Winterfell]

I don't think he wants to rule anything, he's seen first hand what its like to rule. He definitely views Sansa as disposable and he knows she won't go blabbing like she did in KL to Cersei, she learned her lesson. Hopefully she'll put the pieces together about who framed her parents and husband in AGOT.

When it comes to playing the Game of thrones, I think it isn't personal for Petyr, he started off with those he knew and then expanded. IIRC, Cat wasn't suppose to die at the RW, so I guess now he's just using Sansa to full in the political role. I don't think he has any romantic interest in Sansa, if he wanted to f#ck someone that looked like Cat he has his own brothel!

I skimmed most of this thread but I don't see any convo about how he's had it in for Tyrion since the beginning...I find his wanting to kill Tyrion odd.

I feel like he has a wildcard up his sleeve, this isn't just for power, he's setting stuff up for someone...but who?

Oh and back to the Sansa part: she won't stay in the Vale long, or won't be alone long at least. Jamie, Brienne, and the Hound are definitely coming for her and they'll succeeded in getting her away from there. My theory is that her cover will be blown in the Vale, and Cersei will send her champion Robert, after her. And that's when Jamie and Co. will come in. After they get her I don't think she'll make it to lady Stoneheart though. If any of the Starks reunite its Jon and Arya.

[Petyr Patter]

I don't think he wants to rule anything, he's seen first hand what its like to rule. He definitely views Sansa as disposable and he knows she won't go blabbing like she did in KL to Cersei, she learned her lesson. Hopefully she'll put the pieces together about who framed her parents and husband in AGOT.

When it comes to playing the Game of thrones, I think it isn't personal for Petyr, he started off with those he knew and then expanded. IIRC, Cat wasn't suppose to die at the RW, so I guess now he's just using Sansa to full in the political role. I don't think he has any romantic interest in Sansa, if he wanted to f#ck someone that looked like Cat he has his own brothel!

I skimmed most of this thread but I don't see any convo about how he's had it in for Tyrion since the beginning...I find his wanting to kill Tyrion odd.

I feel like he has a wildcard up his sleeve, this isn't just for power, he's setting stuff up for someone...but who?

Well, the thread is focused on Sansa and Littlefinger, and right now Littlefinger probably views Tyrion as a "dealt" with problem. It is only a matter of time before someone find him and turns his head over to Cersei for a Lordship.

Still, there are only two confirmed events where Littlefinger moved against Tyrion. The first was when he claimed the dagger used by Bran's would be assaissin was owned by Tyrion. This seems like an impromptu lie to further garner suspicion between Houses Stark and Lannister and thus create more smoke for his own involvement with Jon Arryn's death. The second time was when Littlefinger framed him for Joffrey's murder. At this point, removing a figure who didn't like you and lied to you about giving you an important lordship is motivation enough.

Oh and back to the Sansa part: she won't stay in the Vale long, or won't be alone long at least. Jamie, Brienne, and the Hound are definitely coming for her and they'll succeeded in getting her away from there. My theory is that her cover will be blown in the Vale, and Cersei will send her champion Robert, after her. And that's when Jamie and Co. will come in. After they get her I don't think she'll make it to lady Stoneheart though. If any of the Starks reunite its Jon and Arya.

This is off topic, but I think we've seen the last of the Hound. I'm willing to accept that he is the grave digger, but that theory is buried beneath some pretty definitive statements of death. There is far more evidence that Sandor is dead then Syrio Forrel is dead. Namely, a character saying point blank "the Hound is dead, I was with him when he died." For the Hound (or Sandor Clegane without his "Hound" alter ego) would come across as a cheap shock to most readers who didn't pick up on the subtle wording (including me). Martin likes shocking his readers, but not by saying one think to only later disprove it.

And frankly, with the theme of "broken men" abound throughout A Feast for Crows, its pretty clear Sandor was one of those broken men. And one of Martin's arguments for pacifism is such broken men do not heal easily. His rescuing days are over with.

[Joseph Alfred]

Interring point about Lady Merryweather. I hadn't considered a Lf union there but he does mention to his whores that he is saving himself for Catelyn or someone with impeccable bloodlines which would include Lysa but exclude Lady Merryweather. She certainly fits the profile for Lf agent though. She's a bit rough around the edges but beautiful, enticing, and new: everything that Cercei likes.

I think this thread is forgetting that Davos is alive and is currently looking for Rick on, the true heir to Winterfell not Sans a. Once Stannis has Rick on the Manderlys will betray the Bolton's and Winterfell is as good as his. Sans a and LF would not fight Stannis and Bran for Winterfell. There's nothing to be gained and Sansa will be elated that her brother is alive. Unlike the Vale and the Riverlands there are no more uncommitted troops left in the north so upon hearing of Rickon's continued existence I expect LF to focus back south.

Sans a is not in the same position as she was the when she left King's Landing because of the fracture of the Tyrell Lannister alliance. In short all the major Lannister players on the small council are either dead or shamed. That combined with the resurgence of the faith makes Sansa not a very high priority. Plus the entire Vale will fight for her after the Red Wedding and the fact that they wanted to join Robb in his war.

Killing Harry the Heir before Sansa gives birth to a son and heir to the Vale is a stupid thing to do. The whole point of his plan is to reflect the anger of the Vale Lorsa and turn it into blind faith and obedience of Harry the heir. Since LF is due facto Father/Savior of the Bride this cements his role as consigliere of the Vale. He's also looking beyond the Vale as he's currently the most eligible widower in Westeros. He could marry Dany and become King at the end if he wanted if Dany does not marry Victarion for his ships.

I've gone in deep length in other threads about how LF is not responsible for any Stark deaths. In short, Cercei gives Harrenhal to Janos Slynt. Something that LF could not give. When LF puts a knife to Ned's throat he is simultaneously removing him from power while saving his life. If you really the throne room passage it states that Ned puts his hand to his sword belt to join in the fight to nobly and stupidly prevent the wholesale slaughter if the men he loved and trained. Only a mortal threat to his own life stops him from joining. Secondly, in Dance during Cercei's shiny scene she walks past the Sept of Baelor and remembers how that situation spiraled out of control because of her son Joffrey. She specifically remembers Varys and LF setting up the terms for Ned's release into the Night's Watch. That's twice in a span of a few days where LF saves Ned's life.

To think that LF had a hand in the Red Wedding is to build your house on quicksand. There is no support for this theory at all. It was Tywin, Walder, and Roose's idea and in my mind is the reason LF switches sides in the war of Five Kings. Even before the Red wedding happens he planned the Purple Wedding with Ollenna Tyrell in High garden.

LF best move would be to declare for Argon after he takes Storm's End. I understand that this would be uniting Varys and LF together, but he knows of Dany and her dragons and what happened to the last owner of Harrenhal who pissed off Targaryens.

Between the Vale, Dorne, and the Golden Company and allies, the Tyrell-Lannister alliance is doomed even without Dany.

In any of these scenarios LF would not kill Sansa because she is just too important even if she isn't Lady of Winterfell. She'd still be Rickon's heir until he fathered his own children. Also, they have a good rapport with one another now. She is getting smarter and starting to think with her own head.Using Sansa as a symbol to unite the Vale behind her is genius and is any counter plan to kill her would be counterproductive. LF is Lord Protector of the Vale until Robin dies which means he has an incentive to keep him alive until he controls the political foreign policy of the Vale, I.e. has Sans a marry Harry. While some have said that LF stated to Sansa that he would murder Robin, I see this as less likely than Robin finally succumbing to his shaking sickness. He is on his last legs after all. LF is also Lord Paramount of the Riverlands so an alliance between Dorne, or the Tarfaryens, or even less likely with Asha Greyjoy is she upsets Euron's rule through another Queensmoot citing Theon's nonparticipation in the first as invalidating Euron's rule in favor of her own.

Either way, LF is on his way up. If he allies the Vale with the right parties he can succeed in many of his goals which include revenge on this who've hurt him in the past and securing his own future as one of the most powerful men in the Seven Kingdoms.

[Hrafntýr]

I don't know why I never discovered this thread before, but, great work OP! And there are some really fine points made throughout.

To me, one of the interesting aspects of LF's interactions with Sansa is the way that he has been working to implicate her in his actions. While it might seem that Sansa "knows too much" and could reveal his treacheries, LF has made her complicit in these acts. There was absolutely no reason that Sansa had to be the bearer of the Strangler into the PW, if indeed this was a plot between LF and the QoT. Unless Sansa was herself the poisoner and is misremembering, the actual dispenser of the poison might just have easily have carried the "amethyst" into the hall, with no involvement on Sansa's part (though I do understand that the more unwitting carriers are involved, the less likely it will be for someone to reconstruct the crime). LF wanted Sansa to know that she is implicated in the killing of Joffrey. And so, too, with some of the other crimes she knows about. LF is psychologically manipulating Sansa to make her tied to him. She's got the guilt of feeling responsible for Dontos' death, Sansa's aunt is killed to protect her (and this whole episode set into motion by the overseen kiss between LF and Sansa), plus there's the horror of the subsequent mutilation of Marillion (this, too, with a sexual undertone, as Baelish had "saved" her from Marillion's attempt to rape her during their escape). Not only is LF implicating Sansa in his crimes, but he's also manipulating things so that there's a romantic/sexual undertone or association with these crimes (Dontos and the PW plot with the whole Florian/Jonquil thing, Marillion, Lysa's sexual jealousy, and now the intrigue with the Vale lords with Sansa as bride).

All this is not at all to disagree with the OP, for LF surely has a plan for Sansa, which could include killing her. But it strikes me that he's going about things in a very specific fashion.

One more point, about LF not having an army. Because LF (to our knowledge) doesn't know that Bran and Rickon are alive, he could see Sansa as his vehicle for getting an army. Sansa could be used to rally the armies of the north, or, perhaps more specifically, the navy of the north, sitting in White Harbor, which is a hop, skip and a jump from the Fingers.

But that, alas, takes us back to that question that no one seems able to answer: to what end? I, too, have no clue whether LF has some idea about what it means to "win" the game, what his objective might be. I think he does love to play, but don't know that he's playing for something specific, other than simply staying on top.

[Mithras]

By the way I have a theory that LF is the one who took the maidenhead of Taena and using her as his spy, as posted here.

[SpringKing]

Simply put, I think he has a plan that uses Sansa Stark. Such as framing her or Harold Hardyng for the murder of Robert Arryn. In the interim, Sansa is entirely in his control and willingly does pretty much whatever he tells her. Meaning, no point in killing her now, because she might be useful in the future.

We know that LF plans to use Sansa to acquire proxy control of the Vale, by marriage to Harry, and the North, by her birthright. This of course assumes the validity of Bran and Rickon's past deaths, and Tyrion & SR's future deaths. By bumping off Harry too, after the marriage, LF cuts out Harry's potentially inconvenient freedom of action. As Sansa's established protector and surrogate guardian, it raises fewer eyebrows when LF then marries her. All the better if LF is able to pull a page from Cesei's book and impregnate Sansa before Harry's death.

Should Sansa prove intractably troublesome at any point, she's a goner like Lysa. However, LF's scheme is burnt toast should SR die before the Sansa-Harry nuptials, because the bastard daughter of the now deposed, and widely despised Lord Protector of the Vale wont be nearly so attractive to Harry.

[myhousigilisthehousecat]

While I hate the principle of self bumping, I would like to generate some conversation.

So, let me pose a question.

Does anyone think Littlefinger actually has long-term plans where Sansa doesn't end up dead?

Littlefinger has been remarkable successful in isolating Sansa from any outside source or help, making her entirely reliant on is "good will." Yet, the isolation cannot last, especially if his plan to reveal her to all the Lords of the Vale is true. If Sansa ever blurts out that Lyn Corbray, for example, worked for Littlefinger during the parley, then suspicion alone would loose his "hidden dagger."

I think he is hoping that Sansa will fall madly in love with him the way that Cat never did and she will keep his secrets. He has put a lot of investment in this creepy little crush and I don't think that he will kill her unless his own life is on the line.

[It's Not That Littlefinger]

no no no no no no no no no no! sansa cant die

[The Mother of The Others]

LF best move would be to declare for Argon after he takes Storm's End. I understand that this would be uniting Varys and LF together, but he knows of Dany and her dragons and what happened to the last owner of Harrenhal who pissed off Targaryens

This could be good for renewed sparring between Varys and LF, if there's to be climactic "tension" between the Targs and each of our two brainiacs sides with a Targ right before they square off in the eventual Dance of Dragons. Advantage LF, probably. Even the Harrenhal curse plays into his hands, probably. I see it that way, anyway. Everyone expects what? A repeat of history when dragons come to Harrenhal. Pete uses what to his advantage? That expectation.

If Aegon is marked as Varys' Targ, that means Pete will encounter the other Targ while he's claiming the Riverlands (perhaps after Danny lands in the West to complete the Euron vs. Victarion arc (and Citadel plot?) and she's then moving east to claim the same territory as Pete.

Stop: Alliance time! Perhaps they meet up at the Twins, which Pete was already seiging, which lets Danny know Pete don't play ball with usurpers anymore. Then Danny gets back into the readers' good graces by dragon-burning Walder & Company while Pete whistles and cheers.

I'd say advantage Pete over Varys at that point. The territory advantage, the momentum going into the final showdown, (...if only it wasn't for all the omens of Danny ending with a knife of betrayal in her back....hmmm.) But hey, Baelish would then additionally have the perfect lure to distract the other Targ with: the Sansa matchmaking that could hand Aegon a huge chunk of the kingdom overnight if only he'd break away from Varys' control and agree to play nice with the other Targ(s)----which may be what Aegon's heart has wanted all along! In other words Pete's play may avert the Dance of Dragons from happening in earnest, proving wrong those who claim he's only proficient at choas. In reality, I believe he's just proficient, period. Now that he's picked up his titles and is ready to rebuild the world as the guy in charge of most of it, it's time to avert further chaos. So we'll see he's good at that too.

Varys will never surrender and admit he's backed the wrong horse, but maybe Aegon would change horses in midstream. Maybe Aegon gets convinced by Pete that the best thing for the world is to be rid of Varys instead of letting Varys prod everyone into a bloodbath situation. Aegon can resist this prodding because Varys' prod is known to be substandard.