Bad News Baelish, or Purple Wedding 2.0?

[Petyr Patter]

I'm bumping my thread to post Martin discussing Baelish's attitudes regarding Sansa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtYhmD2TZs0&list=PLdyYtz46Nolb1ovYhSOnbIYFktNHfZUkR

The clip was made for the show, but seems more closely related to his book than the show interpretation of the material. Littlefinger actually has three different attitudes regarding Sansa.

• A "piece" he can use to advance his political power.
  
• The daughter he could have had with Catelyn.
  
• A young, beautiful Catelyn.
  

The kiss in the courtyard was an impulsive move, because at the moment his third attitude won out.

This doesn't directly support my admittedly long shot theory, but I think it supports it. Baelish acts romantically towards her at some points, acts paternally towards her at some points, but ultimately he'll choose to be "Littlefinger" and try to use her to advance his own power. And Littlefinger doesn't leave lose ends when death buys silence forever.

[Mithras]

I made a new thread in which I agreed mostly with the OP.

After killing Lysa, LF's line of thought was like this:

• He would kill both SR and HtH.
  
• After their deaths, there are no immediate heirs.
  
• A succession crisis like Hornwood or Rosby inheritance would happen.
  
• The IT would have the saying in deciding who would inherit the Seat of Arryn.
  
• He would continue to act like good, loyal Lannister pet. Meantime, he would bribe opposing Vale Lords, kill those who could not be bought and isolate Yohn Royce.
  

This plan would work perfectly because even the entire Lords Declarant combined did not have the power to defy the IT (Lannister-Tyrell alliance) as they clearly showed during the meeting.

So, after LF dealt with every Vale Lord, the IT would declare House Baelish as the Lord Paramount of the Vale and give him the Seat of Arryn. After that, the Lannister-Tyrell alliance would start decaying as he anticipated and meantime, he would start a pro-Stark policy. He would get ready to defy the IT at one point. He would declare war on the Freys to make PR in Riverlands and after that, he would deal with the Boltons in the North too. In all this pro-Stark campaign he would use Sansa as an icon and in the end marry her.

Of course, this plan bases on many assumptions some of which are already proven to be false. First of all, Tywin was murdered much sooner that LF anticipated. With Tywin at his back, the Lords Declarant would not even besiege Eyrie to remove LF from LP of the Vale, which was Tywin’s decision. After Tywin, Cersei ruined the power of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance with blazing speed.

There are also other developments that will doom his plans. Stark boys are not dead as he thinks. Stannis (a man who hates LF) refuses to die to LF’s dismay and worse, he will soon restore one of the Stark boys to Winterfell, which will decrease the value of Sansa as the heiress of House Stark. Moreover, it will make Sansa unruly because she will want to return to Winterfell to unite with her brother.

In addition, there are new pretenders on the way as the Lannister-Tyrell alliance crumbles. At such times, swords matter, not money/bribery/corruption. With wars ravaging all over the Realm, neither the IT nor anyone else will send men to the Vale. LF’s schemes will do no good in an armed rebellion against his rule.

[Hippocras]

I made a new thread in which I agreed mostly with the OP.

After killing Lysa, LF's line of thought was like this:

• He would kill both SR and HtH.
• After their deaths, there are no immediate heirs.
• A succession crisis like Hornwood or Rosby inheritance would happen.
• The IT would have the saying in deciding who would inherit the Seat of Arryn.
• He would continue to act like good, loyal Lannister pet. Meantime, he would bribe opposing Vale Lords, kill those who could not be bought and isolate Yohn Royce.

This plan would work perfectly because even the entire Lords Declarant combined did not have the power to defy the IT (Lannister-Tyrell alliance) as they clearly showed during the meeting.

So, after LF dealt with every Vale Lord, the IT would declare House Baelish as the Lord Paramount of the Vale and give him the Seat of Arryn. After that, the Lannister-Tyrell alliance would start decaying as he anticipated and meantime, he would start a pro-Stark policy. He would get ready to defy the IT at one point. He would declare war on the Freys to make PR in Riverlands and after that, he would deal with the Boltons in the North too. In all this pro-Stark campaign he would use Sansa as an icon and in the end marry her.

Of course, this plan bases on many assumptions some of which are already proven to be false. First of all, Tywin was murdered much sooner that LF anticipated. With Tywin at his back, the Lords Declarant would not even besiege Eyrie to remove LF from LP of the Vale, which was Tywin’s decision. After Tywin, Cersei ruined the power of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance with blazing speed.

There are also other developments that will doom his plans. Stark boys are not dead as he thinks. Stannis (a man who hates LF) refuses to die to LF’s dismay and worse, he will soon restore one of the Stark boys to Winterfell, which will decrease the value of Sansa as the heiress of House Stark. Moreover, it will make Sansa unruly because she will want to return to Winterfell to unite with her brother.

In addition, there are new pretenders on the way as the Lannister-Tyrell alliance crumbles. At such times, swords matter, not money/bribery/corruption. With wars ravaging all over the Realm, neither the IT nor anyone else will send men to the Vale. LF’s schemes will do no good in an armed rebellion against his rule.

That's pretty good.

[Blackfish Tully]

At the end of the Feast for Crows, a drunk Littlefinger tells Sansa that the Merling King has returned from Braavos. He also lets her know he has arranged a betrothal for her to Harold Hardyng, the handsome, gallant, knight who happens to be Robert Arryn's legal heir. It is not clear that the remaining two daughters of Alys Arryn had any children, so I assume not. The plan is to reveal Alayne as Sansa Stark of Winterfell at the wedding in front of the entire nobility of the Vale, and ask that they pledge their swords to her cause of retaking Winterfell from presumably House Bolton.

Still, why would these proud Lords let Littlefinger be Lord Paramount of the Vale instead of an older more established noble family? Assume King's Landing is utterly ineffectual at this point. There is something to be said for the “Tyrell approach,” that is letting the guy already running things continue to run things. Then, its just a matter of finding the right coin that bring Yohn Royce to Littlefinger, and I have a theory: Revenge on the Tyrells. In one of those coincidences you don't notice unless you do a re-read, Yohn Royce's second son became a member of Renly Baratheon's rainbow guard. Loras Tyrell killed him for failing to protect Renly. I do believe this murder will come up again sometime, might as well be here.

Was he drunk?just because he breath smelled like wine does not mean he was drunk . He wasn't slurring his words or stumbling around and he seemed pretty clearheaded when he explained why Harry was the heir to Robert. One glass of wine can make your breath smell of wine.

A closer and easier coin to collect that could get Bronze Yohn on Littlefinger's side is revenge on the Freys. The Freys breaking guest rights would be an offense to his honor plus he was friends with Ned Stark and was pissed off that Lysa did not allow them to join Robb. This would also help Littlefinger as the Freys are the biggest threat to his authority in the Riverlands.

[Petyr Patter]

I made a new thread in which I agreed mostly with the OP.

After killing Lysa, LF's line of thought was like this:

• He would kill both SR and HtH.

After their deaths, there are no immediate heirs.

A succession crisis like Hornwood or Rosby inheritance would happen.

The IT would have the saying in deciding who would inherit the Seat of Arryn.

He would continue to act like good, loyal Lannister pet. Meantime, he would bribe opposing Vale Lords, kill those who could not be bought and isolate Yohn Royce.

This plan would work perfectly because even the entire Lords Declarant combined did not have the power to defy the IT (Lannister-Tyrell alliance) as they clearly showed during the meeting.

So, after LF dealt with every Vale Lord, the IT would declare House Baelish as the Lord Paramount of the Vale and give him the Seat of Arryn. After that, the Lannister-Tyrell alliance would start decaying as he anticipated and meantime, he would start a pro-Stark policy. He would get ready to defy the IT at one point. He would declare war on the Freys to make PR in Riverlands and after that, he would deal with the Boltons in the North too. In all this pro-Stark campaign he would use Sansa as an icon and in the end marry her.

Of course, this plan bases on many assumptions some of which are already proven to be false. First of all, Tywin was murdered much sooner that LF anticipated. With Tywin at his back, the Lords Declarant would not even besiege Eyrie to remove LF from LP of the Vale, which was Tywin’s decision. After Tywin, Cersei ruined the power of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance with blazing speed.

There are also other developments that will doom his plans. Stark boys are not dead as he thinks. Stannis (a man who hates LF) refuses to die to LF’s dismay and worse, he will soon restore one of the Stark boys to Winterfell, which will decrease the value of Sansa as the heiress of House Stark. Moreover, it will make Sansa unruly because she will want to return to Winterfell to unite with her brother.

In addition, there are new pretenders on the way as the Lannister-Tyrell alliance crumbles. At such times, swords matter, not money/bribery/corruption. With wars ravaging all over the Realm, neither the IT nor anyone else will send men to the Vale. LF’s schemes will do no good in an armed rebellion against his rule.

Yeah, I think Littlefinger is definitely edging towards something like this, though I always say Littlefinger is less about long term plans and more about exploiting opportune moments.

I also think Littlefinger's ambitions don't end with the Vale or the Riverlands. He wants to be a power in King's Landing, and by power I mean either Hand of the King, or King Consort (husband to a ruling queen).

Was he drunk?just because he breath smelled like wine does not mean he was drunk . He wasn't slurring his words or stumbling around and he seemed pretty clearheaded when he explained why Harry was the heir to Robert. One glass of wine can make your breath smell of wine.

A closer and easier coin to collect that could get Bronze Yohn on Littlefinger's side is revenge on the Freys. The Freys breaking guest rights would be an offense to his honor plus he was friends with Ned Stark and was pissed off that Lysa did not allow them to join Robb. This would also help Littlefinger as the Freys are the biggest threat to his authority in the Riverlands.

You might be right about Baelish's alcohol consumption, but I tend to think he was drinking because he was about to send Sansa down a dangerous path to get what he wants in terms of support and power, which I suggest might be framing her for Robert Arryn's death. Please see the top of the this page for a link where Martin himself talks about Littlefinger's three contradictory attitudes towards Sansa.

The Freys killed Yohn Royce's former Lord's former Ward's son. Loras Tyrell killed his son. Yohn Royce might be disgusted by the Freys, but he's not going to commit his truth and seat Littlefinger in Harrenhall to kill some of them. After all, the Freys were clearly doing Lannister bidding and Littlefinger has behaved as a Lannisterman himself throughout the War of the 5 Kings. I can't imagine this will be lost on Royce.

[Blackfish Tully]

The Freys killed Yohn Royce's former Lord's former Ward's son. Loras Tyrell killed his son. Yohn Royce might be disgusted by the Freys, but he's not going to commit his truth and seat Littlefinger in Harrenhall to kill some of them. After all, the Freys were clearly doing Lannister bidding and Littlefinger has behaved as a Lannisterman himself throughout the War of the 5 Kings. I can't imagine this will be lost on Royce.

I believe that Bronze Yohn saw Ned Stark as a friend so it's more than just his "former Lord's former Ward's son" and the fact the Freys broke guest rights which is a blight on everybody's in Westeroes honor plays into it. It's also risk versus reward . Attacking the Freys is one thing but going after the Tyrells is something altogether different.

[TheSpottedCat]

First of all, Sansa has been at his mercy for months, and he hasn't killed her. Joffrey, Ned, Lysa, were all powerful individuals in their own way. He had to work hard to get to each of them. Sansa is a little girl,and her only claim to power, i.e. her identity as a Stark of Winterfell, is a secret to everyone but LF. No one stands between them. So why hasn't he killed her yet?

Secondly, the plan you describe makes no sense at all.

1) It actually benefits LF for Sansa to find out about fake Arya. If she is exposed as a fake, then Sansa gets Winterfell. LF has Sansa, she has Winterfell, hence LF has Winterfell. As for Sansa finding out about his involvement in the fArya thing, I'm sure he can spin it to his advantage someway, or convince her that it was all the Lannisters' doing, and he had no part in it.

2) Having Harry the Heir and Sansa accused of murder makes no sense. It makes much more sense to have Sansa marry him, allow him to inherit the Eyrie (Sweetrobin won't last long anyways), having her get pregnant by him (or perhaps by LF himself, but the kid should appear to be Harry's), and then arranging for him to have a little accident. Sansa is left as Lady of the Eyrie, ruling in her child's name, and LF gets to control the Eyrie as well.

3) LF seems to have some sort of twisted affection/desire for Sansa. It apears to be a mixture of sexual desire and a sort of paternal pride/love. In any case, I doubtbhe wants to kill her. She's Cat come back to him from the dead, but this time she looks up to him, is willing to be his partner in crime, and is completely dependent on him. It's a fantasy come true. It makes no sense for him to kill her.

4) You say that he had plenty of chances of making Sansa a little happier and never took them. Why didn't he take them? Because in those cases, making Sansa happier didn't suit him. LF's number one person is LF. That will never change. But if he can give Sansa riches and power, while at the same time gratifying his own desires, then he'll do it. It's not really about making her happy, in any case. It's about making her his personal sexdoll/pupil/daughter.

[Petyr Patter]

First of all, Sansa has been at his mercy for months, and he hasn't killed her. Joffrey, Ned, Lysa, were all powerful individuals in their own way. He had to work hard to get to each of them. Sansa is a little girl,and her only claim to power, i.e. her identity as a Stark of Winterfell, is a secret to everyone but LF. No one stands between them. So why hasn't he killed her yet?

I did tackle this one head on: he is waiting for the opportune moment. If he thought Sansa wouldn't back his play against the Lords Declarant, she would have followed her aunt down the moon door. As it is, he simply can't allow Sansa to assume a role of power or influence, because he has her father's blood on his hands. I mean, he can't be so stupid to think Sansa is just going to let that slide for the next few decades as Lady of Winterfell, Lady of the Vale, and quite possible Lady of Riverrun. And if he can't tightly control the flow of information to her, Sansa will be able to figure it out. Plus, he did commit at least two murders right in front of her, and that is the sort of lose end he never leaves up in the air.

Secondly, the plan you describe makes no sense at all.

1) It actually benefits LF for Sansa to find out about fake Arya. If she is exposed as a fake, then Sansa gets Winterfell. LF has Sansa, she has Winterfell, hence LF has Winterfell. As for Sansa finding out about his involvement in the fArya thing, I'm sure he can spin it to his advantage someway, or convince her that it was all the Lannisters' doing, and he had no part in it.

"fArya" is Jeyne Poole, Sansa's closest friend growing up in Winterfell. Baelish put her to work in a brothel, then sold her to the worst sadist in the series so far. The claim doesn't matter to Sansa, not really. She now sees it as a burden, an excuse for men to wed her and use her. However, Jeyne Poole's treatment? That is something that Sansa can't forgive, which once again means Baelish would be foolish to give her any longterm power... and would be better served letting her die. Which I think he is planning on doing, even if part of him would rather not.

2) Having Harry the Heir and Sansa accused of murder makes no sense. It makes much more sense to have Sansa marry him, allow him to inherit the Eyrie (Sweetrobin won't last long anyways), having her get pregnant by him (or perhaps by LF himself, but the kid should appear to be Harry's), and then arranging for him to have a little accident. Sansa is left as Lady of the Eyrie, ruling in her child's name, and LF gets to control the Eyrie as well.

Your suggestion could work, but would be a year or more before an appropriate child could be conceived and born. Of course, this assumes Sansa isn't barren (she probably isn't), and she survives the birth (she probably will), and Harold can be killed in a non-suspicious manner (tougher, but Littlefinger can probably pull it off), and that the Lords of the Vale will accept Littlefinger as the young Hardyng's ward (enough of them probably will), and that the Lords of the Vale also accept him as their regent again (probably), and the Iron Throne is not occupied by someone willing to oppose that measure (probably).

Wait, why is your suggestion so much sounder than mine? There are a lot of "probably" in there, for what in the end is a 16 year proxy rule of the Vale. And as any statistician will tell you, the unlikely event is going to come up eventually if you play the game long enough. My suggestion can be pulled off at the wedding itself, and if done right lets Littlefinger get rid of all the rivals to the rule of the Vale by having some great patsies. It also gives him and all his descendents direct control of the Vale. Which would bring him its own satisfaction.

I won't claim to have everything figured out, but I don't think Littlefinger is going to take a long road with maybes and pitfalls to get what he already has now: Lord Protector of the Vale. Indeed, if young Arryn really is poor of mind Littlefinger could get a regency extended past 16. He wants to take a big step forward, and the question is how he does it.

3) LF seems to have some sort of twisted affection/desire for Sansa. It apears to be a mixture of sexual desire and a sort of paternal pride/love. In any case, I doubtbhe wants to kill her. She's Cat come back to him from the dead, but this time she looks up to him, is willing to be his partner in crime, and is completely dependent on him. It's a fantasy come true. It makes no sense for him to kill her.

Here it comes down to a judgement on what Littlefinger values the most. Is it getting "Catelyn", the women he missed out on decades ago? Perhaps, and I won't deny the attraction there. However, what I argue in this thread is Littlefinger also desires advancement and prestige. And when it comes time to chose, he's going to sacrifice Sansa to get his advancement. Can he have both? Not really. Sure he could throw Sansa in a cell and keep her as a personal pillow slave, but if he wants Sansa's love, he's going to have to remove her from the game of thrones and tightly control any information that goes to her.

4) You say that he had plenty of chances of making Sansa a little happier and never took them. Why didn't he take them? Because in those cases, making Sansa happier didn't suit him. LF's number one person is LF. That will never change. But if he can give Sansa riches and power, while at the same time gratifying his own desires, then he'll do it. It's not really about making her happy, in any case. It's about making her his personal sexdoll/pupil/daughter.

So, we agree Littlefinger doesn't really care about Sansa to actually help her. You think that is because he wants to fuck her, which he probably does. I say its because he wants to use her in the game of thrones to get his next big promotion. Because that is what he truly cares about. The question then is how? I threw out one idea. I'm sure there could be others, but I don't its your idea. Because Littlefinger doesn't have long term alliances. He has temporary ones until he sells out the other side.

[Hippocras]

^all of your objections can be explained by LF's arrogance.

Sansa doesn't KNOW any of those things. As long as she doesn't know, pretends not to know, or pretends to admire him for his cleverness rather than caring she is quite safe. She is a sexual fantasy he simply can't let to of.

His arrogance leads him to believe he can keep Sansa from learning what he has done, and he probably believes he has covered his tracks.

There is noone Sansa trusts who knows anything about Jeyne. There is noone she trusts who knows anything about his role in the death of her father or in starting the war. As far as LF knows, she has no way to learn about these things.

[IRON BANK]

LF can't get rid of sansa. Sansa is the Caetlyn Tully replica he has waited for his entire life. I will even go as far to say that LF schemes revolve around positioning himself to be SAnsas husband, LF will seduce SAnsa have her marry HArry. Then shortly thereafter harry will die while SAnsa is with child and that child will more than likely be LF's.

[Petyr Patter]

LF can't get rid of sansa. Sansa is the Caetlyn Tully replica he has waited for his entire life. I will even go as far to say that LF schemes revolve around positioning himself to be SAnsas husband, LF will seduce SAnsa have her marry HArry. Then shortly thereafter harry will die while SAnsa is with child and that child will more than likely be LF's.

I wouldn't be so quick to say what Littlefinger can and can't do with Catelyn's daughter, because he didn't do diddly for the actual Catelyn. Once Catelyn rejected Baelish decades ago in Riverrun, he hasn't looked back one bit. Don't you think it likely he knew the Red Wedding was going to happen? Or how about his continued support of the Lannisters against the Starks throughout the War of 5 Kings? Littlefinger didn't do anything that might have helped or comforted Catelyn. Plus, a lot of what he did assissting the Lannisters in the War directly contributed to the Stark (and by extension Catelyn) fall. Plus, accepted Lord Paramount status for the Riverlands... literately taking away her family's traditional seat of power. Pretty much the only thing he's done "for Catelyn" was frame her daughter for murder before kidnapping her.

Honestly, I think he sees Sansa as a surrogate for revenge instead of love. Sure, he'll force a few kisses on her, but risk his plans? I don't think so. Especially when its pretty clear Sansa doesn't return that affection.

[Hippocras]

I wouldn't be so quick to say what Littlefinger can and can't do with Catelyn's daughter, because he didn't do diddly for the actual Catelyn. Once Catelyn rejected Baelish decades ago in Riverrun, he hasn't looked back one bit. Don't you think it likely he knew the Red Wedding was going to happen? Or how about his continued support of the Lannisters against the Starks throughout the War of 5 Kings? Littlefinger didn't do anything that might have helped or comforted Catelyn. Plus, a lot of what he did assissting the Lannisters in the War directly contributed to the Stark (and by extension Catelyn) fall. Plus, accepted Lord Paramount status for the Riverlands... literately taking away her family's traditional seat of power. Pretty much the only thing he's done "for Catelyn" was frame her daughter for murder before kidnapping her.

Honestly, I think he sees Sansa as a surrogate for revenge instead of love. Sure, he'll force a few kisses on her, but risk his plans? I don't think so. Especially when its pretty clear Sansa doesn't return that affection.

It is not because of loyalty - LF is very unlikely to be planning to kill Sansa because she is a sexual fantasy he can't let go of for him. Even more than that: Marrying a Tully is, for him, the equivalent of finally achieving the chief aim of all his ambitions. If he can do that, he has succeeded in his climb. She is not just a girl, she is the trophy that will mark his success.

[Petyr Patter]

It is not because of loyalty - LF is very unlikely to be planning to kill Sansa because she is a sexual fantasy he can't let go of for him. Even more than that: Marrying a Tully is, for him, the equivalent of finally achieving the chief aim of all his ambitions. If he can do that, he has succeeded in his climb. She is not just a girl, she is the trophy that will mark his success.

... he did marry a Tully. And killed her.

I hate to say you proved my point, but I will say you supported it.

Nah, I think he wants to prove himself better than any Tully, or Stark, or even Lannister. He's out to prove he's the best of the bestest, and that isn't about a marriage, its about gaining the big titles and making it in King's Landing.

[Hippocras]

Lysa doesn't count. He wants respect. Lysa was a lunatic and everyone knew it. She was a rung on the ladder and NOTHING like a trophy.

[rozemarijn]

Isn't it possible he plans to keep Sansa alive but kill off the other two?

- when Sansa marries Harold she is his heir. If Littlefinger marries her after that he unites his own 'claim' with her sort of 'claim' two half claims equal one reasonable? I think he really needs a noble, old claim. She is Neds daughter and the young falcons wife, she is going to be so popular.

-he will not kill Harold at the wedding, he will use the young falcon to fight the Boltons (and die in the attempt) meanwhile he will either rule the vale in his absence or keep on being lord protector for Robert.

- Harold will die first. If Robert dies and Harold gains power Littlefinger loses a lot of influence. Either he has a lot of strategy planned to keep the falcon under control or he thiks Sansa can help him. Why risk it? He should keep ruling the Eyrie through Robert and while he is still in full power arrange Sansa to be the heir and marry her.

After that Robert can collapse.

-at the moment he wants no one to know how bad Robert is doing, to keep people from speculating about the succession?

[Maid So Fair]

I've wondered if what LF wants from Sansa is a child that he can raise as LF 2.0, and possibly make King.

[SevasTra82]

I don't think LF has any intention of killing Sansa...as she's the perfect piece for him to get what he wants.

On top of that, he's got an obsession with Cat that is now being transferred over to Sansa. In the end, I think his obsession with eventually lead to his downfall.

[Blackfish Tully]

Isn't it possible he plans to keep Sansa alive but kill off the other two?

- when Sansa marries Harold she is his heir. If Littlefinger marries her after that he unites his own 'claim' with her sort of 'claim' two half claims equal one reasonable? I think he really needs a noble, old claim. She is Neds daughter and the young falcons wife, she is going to be so popular.

-he will not kill Harold at the wedding, he will use the young falcon to fight the Boltons (and die in the attempt) meanwhile he will either rule the vale in his absence or keep on being lord protector for Robert.

- Harold will die first. If Robert dies and Harold gains power Littlefinger loses a lot of influence. Either he has a lot of strategy planned to keep the falcon under control or he thiks Sansa can help him. Why risk it? He should keep ruling the Eyrie through Robert and while he is still in full power arrange Sansa to be the heir and marry her.

After that Robert can collapse.

-at the moment he wants no one to know how bad Robert is doing, to keep people from speculating about the succession?

That's not how that works . Harry's heir will be some distant relation to the Arryns not Sansa. Lysa was only Lady of the Vale because she was the mother to the Lord of the Vale . If Sansa has a child with Harry and then he dies then she will be Lady of the Vale until her child comes of age.

[rozemarijn]

That's not how that works . Harry's heir will be some distant relation to the Arryns not Sansa. Lysa was only Lady of the Vale because she was the mother to the Lord of the Vale . If Sansa has a child with Harry and then he dies then she will be Lady of the Vale until her child comes of age.

Would you rather have some distant small lord raised as lord of the Vale or Sansa. Roberts niece, Neds daughter and Harolds wife? Who will be the next heir of the Vale will be a political decision made by the lords of the Vale (or Robert with support) not just picked after the study of a dusty family tree.

Being lord of the Vale is more about support for your claim as a drop of blood. A drop of blood can help you get support but is that realistic in this case? Put someone with no experience, decent connections or allies? Or in other words, do you really think Littlefinger has not thought this through. I don't say Sansa has a solid legal claim, but there is a very big chance she may get solid support, especially with Littlefingers help.

All of this is when Harrold has only one heir. My guess is he will have several and the Vale lords will either fight each other about it in Civil War or unite between someone they can all agree on. Sansa has close ties to the Vale and will gain sympathy. She might be an unifying factor.

She can either be married to Littlefinger, if he has gained support in the Vale, or be picked single. Every house of the Vale will take his chance to woe her. Which means she is the best way to gain influence without risking civil war, as a family.

[Blackfish Tully]

Would you rather have some distant small lord raised as lord of the Vale or Sansa. Roberts niece, Neds daughter and Harolds wife? Who will be the next heir of the Vale will be a political decision made by the lords of the Vale (or Robert with support) not just picked after the study of a dusty family tree.

Being lord of the Vale is more about support for your claim as a drop of blood. A drop of blood can help you get support but is that realistic in this case? Put someone with no experience, decent connections or allies? Or in other words, do you really think Littlefinger has not thought this through. I don't say Sansa has a solid legal claim, but there is a very big chance she may get solid support, especially with Littlefingers help.

All of this is when Harrold has only one heir. My guess is he will have several and the Vale lords will either fight each other about it in Civil War or unite between someone they can all agree on. Sansa has close ties to the Vale and will gain sympathy. She might be an unifying factor.

She can either be married to Littlefinger, if he has gained support in the Vale, or be picked single. Every house of the Vale will take his chance to woe her. Which means she is the best way to gain influence without risking civil war, as a family.

Bloodline does matter in these cases and sometimes it's the only thing that matters. The Lord of the Vale has to have Arryn blood no matter how distant . If Sansa had an Arryn in her bloodline no matter how distant that would be one thing . It would be nice if the most qualified or popular candidate would become Lord but unfortunately that is just not how it works in this type of society.