Stannis' tactics at Winterfell

[Iona]

Somewhere in all this, i have to believe Ramsay kills his father. Roose cant keep a mad man like that near him for all this time and not eventually get burned by it.

I'd be otherwise inclined to agree with this, if it wasn't for the Bastard's Boys. Roose told Theon that they are all his men in truth, so if Ramsay was plotting something, Roose would know of it beforehand. Of course, I wouldn't rule out Ramsay going berserk and killing Roose after a heated argument or something.

I've always felt that the most important missing piece in this puzzle is the conversation between Roose and Ramsay, possibly caused by the mysterious letter that could have had information on Stannis' movements. Roose and Ramsay definately aren't agreeing on something. Theon observes that it got ugly enough to frighten Fat Walda. They were interrupted by ser Hosteen coming in with Little Walder's body and all the drama that follows, after which the Manderleys and Freys are sent out to play. What where they arguing about, I would love to know!

[The Fourth Head]

That being said, Bolton hasn't been noted as anything much more than a competition military mind (and only even demonstrated that by intentionally losing battles, which is far easier to do). Perhaps he just wanted to free himself of mouths to feed, and maybe win the war outright (or at least bleed Stannis enough to secure himself against him.

I take it as an unwitting testament to Roose Bolton's efficiency that noone ever remembers his victory at Harrenhal- or at the Red Wedding. Both involved sharp millitary tactics to engineer a millitary victory.

And yet, noone remembers! haha

A quiet land. A peaceful people.

[Brother Seamus]

How does losing fighting men get you ahead?

What aryagonnakill says: of course, fewer men is a negative, but it's outweighed by the other positives; and it's not a negative at all if the attack against stannis is successful. in that case he's used men other than his own to win. if they lose, then he's lost men other than his own, and solved or ameliorated 3-4 other problems.

no doubt, if it was clear he'd lose, and he was just throwing men away, that would be a completely different situation.

[aryagonnakill]

I take it as an unwitting testament to Roose Bolton's efficiency that noone ever remembers his victory at Harrenhal- or at the Red Wedding. Both involved sharp millitary tactics to engineer a millitary victory.

And yet, noone remembers! haha

A quiet land. A peaceful people.

You mean Arya's victory at Harrenhall? Cause Roose didn't fight a battle there, he was given the castle after the prisoners Arya freed took it. While at Harrenhall, he then sent a shitload of men off to die at duskendale, admittedly without anyone realizing his men were not among them, then gave Harrenhall to the bloody mummers, who then lost it to the mountain.

[mbuehner]

You mean Arya's victory at Harrenhall? Cause Roose didn't fight a battle there, he was given the castle after the prisoners Arya freed took it. While at Harrenhall, he then sent a shitload of men off to die at duskendale, admittedly without anyone realizing his men were not among them, then gave Harrenhall to the bloody mummers, who then lost it to the mountain.

And i dont know how you consider the RW a military victory. If so Hannibal Lector is the worlds greatest general. Even if you buy it, the Freys did most of the butchering.

[Net-Viper X]

I have a bad feeling the Manderly forces missed their chance to turn against Bolton once that Frey sliced Manderlys throat. Now Lord Manderly himself is layed up in Winterfel with a savage wound, while his troops are outside the gates with the Freys. In effect Lord Manderly is a hostage of Roose and if those troops turn to Stannis side, Roose will no doubt kill Manderly in response.

[ApKing06]

I have a bad feeling the Manderly forces missed their chance to turn against Bolton once that Frey sliced Manderlys throat. Now Lord Manderly himself is layed up in Winterfel with a savage wound, while his troops are outside the gates with the Freys. In effect Lord Manderly is a hostage of Roose and if those troops turn to Stannis side, Roose will no doubt kill Manderly in response.

Are we sure Manderlays wound is that bad that he is laid up in winterfel? I was under the impression that Lord "Too-Fats" 3rd chin saved him from a serious wound. (i could be wrong) I would also think that Maderlay would have to be about dead not to go with his men due to what we know of his attentions. He at best would end up a hostage and worse he would lose his head depending on the outcome of the battle with Stannis. Any type of negative outcome would probably be seen as treason by Roose and/or Ramsay.

[Maestor Tarly]

After reading Theon's sample chapter we know Stannis is hoping for the Bolton's to send men to fight them which seems to be the case, however is probably just Manderlys and Freys... I think the Freys will end up falling through the weakened ice and/or killed by the Manderlys which still leaves the Boltons inside Winterfell and protected by double castle walls... Stannis knows he cannot survive long in the cold and that the Boltons can starve them out.. This leaves the major dilemma of how to take Winterfell.. There is a theory going around about how Bran is trying to get Theon sacrificed at the Weirwood Tree.. I think Bran is trying to get Theon there because Bran knows secret ways to get through the double walls of Winterfell (SEE BRAN 2, GoT)

[Muggle]

i assumed he would use the ravens he got to trick bolton into opening the gates. saying something like

We demolished the pretender Stannis. we are bringing him back in chains etc.... All he has to do is hold the banners of the Karstarks in front of his army

Stannis is set up to win the battle about to happen outside the gates one sided.

I think the manderlys will just swap sides.

The freys dont know the north and will be weak foes.

Ramsey's force is going to be tricked into walking onto the lakes and fall threw the rotten ice.

[aryagonnakill]

I am going to propose something I've not heard proposed. The battle is won by Stannis and co as most predict, Manderlys men will flop etc. However I am beginning to suspect that things may get more screwey before they start to simplify. What if the battle is won, but is so devastating, in that the wrong people die, commander of Manderly forces etc, perhaps Stannis is even wounded. Also thinking about how events may unfold in front of the weirwood tree, Asha may gain some level of influence during some point. So onto the actual proposal, wounded Stannis and decimated men, storm still raging, they don't think they have the strength to take Winterfell, with all the dead men they have some supplies to take/eat but not enough to last them too long. I suggest they may possibly take Asha's suggestion from Dance and head to Torrhens square to link up with the Cleftjaw and get shelter. This would be very interesting, and would really create a new dynamic in the North. In any case I just thought I'd propose a new theory that I haven't seen before.

[ApKing06]

i assumed he would use the ravens he got to trick bolton into opening the gates. saying something like

We demolished the pretender Stannis. we are bringing him back in chains etc.... All he has to do is hold the banners of the Karstarks in front of his army

Stannis is set up to win the battle about to happen outside the gates one sided.

I think the manderlys will just swap sides.

The freys dont know the north and will be weak foes.

Ramsey's force is going to be tricked into walking onto the lakes and fall threw the rotten ice.

I think you are right. They will tell Bolton by raven that Stannis is dead, we have his magic sword, and Reek and Fake Arya were sent to the wall. The boltons must have Arya to strengthen their claim to Winterfell so they will leave winterfell to go get her back. They will be fine with this cause if they believe Stannis is dead then they will think there is no opposition on the way to the wall and Castle Black can not be defended from the South so getting her back will be easy. It will be great disinformation to draw a safe army out from its defenses into harms way.

(this makes alot of sense when you consider the contents of the "bastard" letter. Most likely written by Ramsay based on the false information they receive from Karstarks Ravens)

[mbuehner]

Are we sure Manderlays wound is that bad that he is laid up in winterfel? I was under the impression that Lord "Too-Fats" 3rd chin saved him from a serious wound. (i could be wrong) I would also think that Maderlay would have to be about dead not to go with his men due to what we know of his attentions. He at best would end up a hostage and worse he would lose his head depending on the outcome of the battle with Stannis. Any type of negative outcome would probably be seen as treason by Roose and/or Ramsay.

My take has always been that Manderlay is martyring himself. I don't think he's physically capable of accompanying the army even before the wound. Something about his behavior makes me think he knows he's a dead man walking, though hopefully he has the means to do it himself rather than let the Bolton's have him.

[Myk Lonmouth]

I think Manderly may end up poisoning his own food and that's how Roose will get got. And most of his men.

[ApKing06]

My take has always been that Manderlay is martyring himself. I don't think he's physically capable of accompanying the army even before the wound. Something about his behavior makes me think he knows he's a dead man walking, though hopefully he has the means to do it himself rather than let the Bolton's have him.

Interesting. I like that idea. You know, come to think of it, he was very adamant about waiting for the the return of his son. With your point, it may of been more about succession then fatherly love.

[OutlawSarge]

I think sending out the frey's was a big mistake on Roose part and was done out of frustration. The frey's are the only other members of his army that he can count on their loyalty. Every Northmen knows that bolton's burned winterfell as well as had a part in the red wedding. The north remembers! And letting manderley out is a bigger mistake because they have the largest army left in the north. With all the snow there is know way of telling where the rest of the manderley army is. Remember only 300 are at winterfell and the force is much much larger. As far as the bastard letter I believe stannis has more to do with this than either Bolton because stannis wants that willing army and has the entire time. He now has the pretense needed to get Jon snow away from the wall.

[Federico]

More than one poster has indicated that Ramsey gas departed WF. Is this based on an inference from the letter sent to CB that caused Jon to ask Wildlings to join him in attacking the Boltons? Was it explicitly stated in the letter (don't recall that)? I do not recall the Theon I chapter in aDwD stating that Ramsey departed with the Freys and Manderlys to take on Stannis. I'd greatly appreciate a quote that pinpoints the source. The uncertainty is bugging me.

Cheers,

Fed

[David C. Hunter]

Losing half your army is losing half your army. Roose's reasoning for it is irrelevant. He was trying to make the best out of a bad situation.

He doesn't know about Mance Raydar's scheme

He doesnt know Theon and Jeyne are getting ready to escape

He doesn't know that the Umbers are surroudning Winterfell

He doesn't know that the Karstak plot is going to fail

He doesn't know that the Braavos banker is helping Stannis

He doesn't know how many Wildlings are South of the border

He doesn't know that the Manderlys are in the middle of a huge plot(He mistrusts him, but he doesnt know what is up. No idea)

He doesnt know who are killing off people in Winterfell

He doesn't know that Davos is on his way to Skaagos to retrieve Rickon, Osha, ShaggyDog, and most likely a Skagosi army

He knows nothing.

And to top it all off, he makes the Manderlys and Freys, the two biggest allies he has out of Winterfell, leave and he is only left with people who hate his guts

Hes just trying to make the best of a situation that he is slowly losing control of. In Theon's last chapter he says that Roose actually looked "scared".

The North, thanks to dead lannsiters, the long winter and lack of people, are cut off from the other kingdoms at this point. There is no backup coming.

Oh and to top that all off, Bran and Bloodraven are warging all creatures and are doing everything they can to help Team Stannis.

[BryndenTullys#1fan]

Okay. There's definitely a hard rule that when opposing a force of similar strength you don't divide your forces, as a competent commander, like Stannis, will smash both forces individually (even though Fredrick the Great did this better than anyone else and pretty much beat back every other continental European power during the 100 years war).

So on the surface it seems that Bolton blundered. However, even though Bolton isn't as accomplished as Stannis, he's not dumb. Hes now commanded Bolton men in 3 wars.

By sending out the Freys, he is attempting to a ) remove mouths to feed from WF b ) identify any Manderly treachery w/o endangering his own men c ) relieve the tension in WF with the Freys presence d ) give Ser Hosteen what he wants, to ride out and e ) soften up Stannis army w/o using his own men.

All that while his own army stays warm and fed behind the impenetrable walls of WF.

I think Boltons main blunder is not to have recruited more men or convinced the other lords to send more troops to fight Stannis, instead of the tolken forces the other northern lords brought to WF

[SecondWhisperer]

If Manderly's levies join Stannis, Stannis has two big problems: food and shelter. As stated, Manderly holds the largest remaining army in the north. How to feed them and shelter them from the winter?

And the Wall is getting short on food stocks. Even if a wilding army did march, where will they get enough supplies even if they kill all the Brothers on the Wall?

Jon Snow is the one keeping the Free Folks and the Black Brothers from slitting each other's throat. Kill him and there could be bloodshed on the Wall. If the Free Folks win, they will march south to survive from starvation if not from the Others. Whether they will strike at Winterfell or kill Stannis for what he did (breaking Mance's host before the Wall), its a toss up.

If this is Bolton's plan, he's daring too much. The Red Wedding was on stable ground. Tywin needs to deal with Stannis and rid of him permanently and Robb Stark was taking much of his time. Roose probably knew of the "marriage" of House Lannister to the Martells and the Tyrells. Stannis was broken on King's Landing. Now Robb is faced with the power of House Lannister, the wealth of Highgarden and the perceived might of Dorne. Bolton saved his skin and became Warden of the North in the process.

[Return of the Third Reed]

I think Winterfell is where Stannis' dream of becoming lord of all the Seven Kingdoms will finally come to an end.

I think this because I simply cannot see him winning without further reinforcements. Even if he wins the Battle of Ice (which I believe he will), Stannis is stuck outside Winterfell with no real way that I can see of getting in. Roose will still be inside, less cold and less hungry than Stannis and his men (though not by much).

As such, I think Stannis' success at Winterfell is going to hinge on a second force coming to join him. I think this will be a force of primarily Skagosi and White Harbour men held back by Manderly under the command of Robett Glover.

When this force arrives, they will, one assumes, have Rickon in tow. This will leave Stannis in a position where his own men (Baratheon loyalists) are in a minority to the Northern contingent, with a present male Stark child (and potentially Manderly) for said Northern contingent to rally around and pledge their support too.

This will probably result in a deal of sorts being struck; Northern assistance in ridding the North of the Boltons and perhaps helping Stannis with some other parts of his campaign, in exchange for independence. Though, by that time, they may all need to head North anyway in order to combat the Others.