Does Varys know Dorne's troop number

[Veltigar]

We know that the Dornish have fed everyone bullshit about their numbers since Daeron I exaggerated them to look better. Even Quentin Martell didn't know the right number.

So does Varys know that the Dornish have far less troops than people think? I know Varys is supposed to know almost everything, but if Quentin Martell doesn't know the right number than why should Varys know?

[Free Northman]

We know that the Dornish have fed everyone bullshit about their numbers since Daeron I exaggerated them to look better. Even Quentin Martell didn't know the right number.

So does Varys know that the Dornish have far less troops than people think? I know Varys is supposed to know almost everything, but if Quentin Martell doesn't know the right number than why should Varys know?

Varys's knowledge doesn't deal with that type of information. Rather with current events, messages, secret plots etc. He will know whatever is in the history book that Stannis read on the strength of noble Houses.

[Veltigar]

Varys's knowledge doesn't deal with that type of information. Rather with current events, messages, secret plots etc. He will know whatever is in the history book that Stannis read on the strength of noble Houses.

Alright thanks for the reminder :D I could easily see this mistake biting him in the ass later one.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Most likely not. There are simply no sources available.

I know Varys is supposed to know almost everything

That's a forum disease. Varys is better informed than most players, but he is far from omniscient and has very large black holes in his information network.

Basically, he's very well informed in the Red Keep and in Pentos, but outside his level of information drops sharply. He had no information about Dragonstone, he has no information about the North or the Wall and barely anything elsewhere. He's mostly restricted to rumours.

[The Merry Other]

Isn't military strength an important indication for Varys to know which way the wind will blow? I thought he should have a fairly good idea of the relative strength of the various houses

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Isn't military strength an important indication for Varys to know which way the wind will blow? I thought he should have a fairly good idea of the relative strength of the various houses

Sources, sources, sources. It doesn't matter how important it is, if there are no decent estimates available, he can't ferret them out.

[The Merry Other]

Sources, sources, sources. It doesn't matter how important it is, if there are no decent estimates available, he can't ferret them out.

Someone must have the numbers (the Prince, the Lord, the commander-in-chief, the maester at arms, etc). They will have advisors, aids, squires, servants, etc. Inevitably the info will leak out

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Someone must have the numbers (the Prince, the Lord, the commander-in-chief, the maester at arms, etc). They will have advisors, aids, squires, servants, etc. Inevitably the info will leak out

Quentyn Martell didn't knew. Arianne Martell didn't knew. Doran is the only one confirmed to know. Probably Oberyn as well. But its a very closely held secret.

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

Knowing things is Varys' job, not Quentin's. It's entirely likely that he does know, but at this point it seems mostly speculation.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

I don't see how he would know unless he has a spy in Sunspear, which I doubt.

[The Merry Other]

Quentyn Martell didn't knew. Arianne Martell didn't knew. Doran is the only one confirmed to know. Probably Oberyn as well. But its a very closely held secret.

Didn't Quentyn tell Dany Dorne could bring 50K swords to her cause? And how does Doran know the numbers? It's not like he lines up his troops and counts them, right? Someone must have reported the numbers to him and that someone could be bought

[The Merry Other]

I don't see how he would know unless he has a spy in Sunspear, which I doubt.

Varys is supposed to have spies everywhere

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Didn't Quentyn tell Dany Dorne could bring 50K swords to her cause? And how does Doran know the numbers? It's not like he lines up his troops and counts them, right? Someone must have reported the numbers to him and that someone could be bought

Yes, and Quentyn was wrong. 50,000 is the propaganda number, Doran himself calculates with 30,000. Doran knows the strength of all the Houses sworn to him and how far he can trust those. That's a multitude of reports coming in, almost all of them partly (intentionally) wrong and takes a lot of effort and background knowledge to sift through, Varys hypothetical spy wouldn't get the big picture.

Varys is supposed to have spies everywhere

...says the forum. Not the books.

[joluoto]

Varys might or might not know. He has spies everywhere, or at least makes everyone believe that's true (and the most important thing is that people think he has spies everywhere). If he knows about Dorne exaggerating their numbers remain to be seen.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Varys is supposed to have spies everywhere

Says who? Varys doesn't have a clue about what's happening in the North.

[Laime Jannister]

Says who? Varys doesn't have a clue about what's happening in the North.

I like how people buy the rumours Varys spreads about himself. We can see how he's stayed on the Small Council for so long.

[Laime Jannister]

Replying to OP- I think Vary might know. I agree with this-

Basically, he's very well informed in the Red Keep and in Pentos, but outside his level of information drops sharply. He had no information about Dragonstone, he has no information about the North or the Wall and barely anything elsewhere. He's mostly restricted to rumours.

that Varys network is in Kings Landing, and if we assume the most powerful lord would gather here in times of peace (after RR), such a network could give off the aura of omniscience. However, during a civil war and lower crown authority, a King's Landing network cannot deliver what it used to.

I also agree with this-

Yes, and Quentyn was wrong. 50,000 is the propaganda number, Doran himself calculates with 30,000. Doran knows the strength of all the Houses sworn to him and how far he can trust those. That's a multitude of reports coming in, almost all of them partly (intentionally) wrong and takes a lot of effort and background knowledge to sift through, Varys hypothetical spy wouldn't get the big picture.

Varys has been Master of Whisperers a little longer than Doran has been Prince of Dorne, so it is concievable that Doran could keep up the ruse from Varys since Robert's Rebellion. However, I can also see Varys getting past Doran's ruse by getting Dorne's military strength from military strategists that would know this (Tywin and/or Stannis was said to supposedly know the strength of every house).

So does Varys know? I think it depends if Doran could keep Dorne's strength a secret from Tywin or Stannis (whoever was said to be a military strategist).

[Victor227]

Presumably, Doran came up with, and maintains, the exaggerated troop-count by simply taking in all the reports of possible levies by his vassals, and keeping them to himself. It's pretty easy when you have such a non-centralized system, with very little emphasis on proper accounting and logistics.Varys might suspect its an exaggeration, but short of getting his hands on every report by every banner Doran can call up, or getting a spy directly into his letters and files, there's no real way to confirm just how many spears Dorne can raise, nor how many of -that- number will actually show up.

It's up to the lords and knights, not just the population, to provide soldiers. Just like Lady Dustin stiffed Robb Stark on the Barrowtown levies, giving him a bare minimum rather than enthusiastically supporting the cause, so too can Doran's lords do the same, and barring them, the lesser lords and knights under those lords. Personal relationships and even laws and central authority to compel troop-numbers are all incredibly important factors, and all extraordinarily difficult for someone like Varys to collect and store reliably in King's Landing.

[TalalOfDorne]

Who knows? Id lean towards no though.

[Ser Greg of House House]

There's no evidence that he knows. Varys does not know everything.